How long will ICE cars be on the road?

I have done some back of the napkin math and predicted that by 2070 nearly every car that is sold will plug in and that 100 years from now ICE cars will be a rare sight (outside of museums).

You can see my assumptions and charts here:
http://carswithcords.blogspot.com/2014/06/ice-on-road-ahead-for-another-100-years.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Of course, the future is hard to predict; there could be a 2030 oil shock and then we could all start using jet packs and VR-telecommuting. Assuming that doesn't happen, the above is what I think a successful fast adoption of plug-in cars would look like.

A few of my co-workers have read this and the EV drivers think the transition will occur much faster, while the ICE drivers tend to think the EV adoption rate will be much slower. I assume most of you, as EV drivers, will fall into the first camp but I'd like to hear what you think.

You are talking about two different things: new car sales and, in the title, cars "on the road." I think that maybe, maybe, your assumption about sales may pan out, but that ICE cars will still outnumber EVs for some time after that on the road.

By 2070 Most car will be either hydrogen (or some other Compressible gas) Powered

or nuclear fusion powered. (Remember Back to the Future..)

ICE's will be around 100 years from now they will just be dramatically fewer in numbers. The over the road industry alone will continue ICE until there is some type of national electrified road system. Personal ICE's, now those could potentially disappear in 50-100 years.

my thoughts?

by 2025, every car will plug in. but it will still take 40 years to get gassers off the roads. only by major reforms in gasoline pricing can we hasten this. problem with that is our infrastructure has been built for gasoline.

what we don't have is major transportation networks to move cars or freight or people. Musk with his "people pod" mover is much more on target than we know. the same has to be done for freight and that will take decades to build. my best guess (and its a 100% guess) is that 15 years of concerted effort would do it, but I expect it will be 6-8 years of arguing, 3-5 years of right of way negotiations, 1-3 years of labor negotiations/contract awarding before a single thing is done.

then we add in the complexity of putting the end points near enough to city centers where they can be serviced by large EV transports so that would have to be with 50% of the range expected of big trucks which I think can go 150 miles relatively economically within 10 years. the thought of building the last mile to the cities?

just look at Seattle's issues with their version of the "Big Dig" for reasons why we should not go that way but then again, Seattle was planning with gas...(sniffing it more likely)

My personal opinion is that until the petroleum (or one of its byproducts like natural gas) is truly depleted, ICEVs will always be with us in one form or another.

However, I think most future cars that still have a petroleum/flammable gas powered engine will employ some form of plug-in hybrid technology, and that the pure ICEV will eventually go away. Even high performance cars are going this route; Porsche, Ferrari, McLaren, and perhaps others have hybrid performance cars. The primary goal of such vehicles is for performance, but there's no reason why these cars can't cruise around Beverly Hills or Miami Beach in pure EV mode, especially as battery technology advances.

RonDawg said:

My personal opinion is that until the petroleum (or one of its byproducts like natural gas) is truly depleted, ICEVs will always be with us in one form or another.

However, I think most future cars that still have a petroleum/flammable gas powered engine will employ some form of plug-in hybrid technology, and that the pure ICEV will eventually go away. Even high performance cars are going this route; Porsche, Ferrari, McLaren, and perhaps others have hybrid performance cars. The primary goal of such vehicles is for performance, but there's no reason why these cars can't cruise around Beverly Hills or Miami Beach in pure EV mode, especially as battery technology advances.

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was the question about plugs? or gasoline consumption? if its stopping gas all together, then i change mine from 2025 to 2070

In just 11 years? Not a chance.

DaveinOlyWA said:

by 2025, every car will plug in.

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DaveinOlyWA said:

RonDawg said:

My personal opinion is that until the petroleum (or one of its byproducts like natural gas) is truly depleted, ICEVs will always be with us in one form or another.

However, I think most future cars that still have a petroleum/flammable gas powered engine will employ some form of plug-in hybrid technology, and that the pure ICEV will eventually go away. Even high performance cars are going this route; Porsche, Ferrari, McLaren, and perhaps others have hybrid performance cars. The primary goal of such vehicles is for performance, but there's no reason why these cars can't cruise around Beverly Hills or Miami Beach in pure EV mode, especially as battery technology advances.

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was the question about plugs? or gasoline consumption? if its stopping gas all together, then i change mine from 2025 to 2070

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How is my reply not answering the question? The OP asked how long ICEVs will be around. My answer was "until there are no resources left to power them."

I simply added that hybrid technology will lengthen the usefulness of such machines, to help supplement my answer.

Things can change and have changed quite rapidly when a revolutionary idea comes out. Ice cars came out full force in less than a decade (1920s). My thoughts are that the internal combustion engine is a seriously outdated and inefficient means to move people around. There is so much need for change, we will see a very rapid shift to a better way when that way comes down the pike.. whether that way is plug in electric remains to be seen. There are still a lot of deficiencies there as well. Whatever it will be, there will be changes, and they will come rspidly. Well before 2070.

johnrhansen said:

Things can change and have changed quite rapidly when a revolutionary idea comes out. Ice cars came out full force in less than a decade (1920s).

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What made ICEVs do just that is a combination of several factors, of which a lowered price (the Model T) and an increasing number of gas stations have a heavy influence.

EVs are coming down in price; the 2014 iMiEV is supposed to be MSRP'd at $24k, before government incentives, manufacturer rebates (if any), and dealer haggling. Charging stations are becoming more numerous. But what hasn't improved all that much is capacity per dollar, and the ability to recharge them as quickly as a liquid refueling. Yeah we have 30 min QC's to 80%, but when several people are lined up for each QC station, that isn't going to be the same as waiting in line for gas, unless you consider the long gas lines during the 1973 Oil Embargo.

I think the thing that will really make electric cars take off would be either the ability to charge extremely rapidly (super capacitors?) Or be able to go as far as most people want to drive in a day without having to stop for very long. The people I have talked to are never going to be willing to give up any convenience at all. They would rather keep paying more.

johnrhansen said:

I think the thing that will really make electric cars take off would be either the ability to charge extremely rapidly (super capacitors?) Or be able to go as far as most people want to drive in a day without having to stop for very long. The people I have talked to are never going to be willing to give up any convenience at all. They would rather keep paying more.

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There are inconveniences associated with ICE vehicles that people just don't consider because they are inured to them. For me, filling up at home and not having to make a special trip or divert to a filling station is a great convenience. The smooth, immediate and perfectly proportional throttle response is a great convenience because it makes the car easier and more pleasant to drive. As for "slow" recharge times, that tends to decrease in importance as range increases. Already the Tesla is well on the way to tipping that. Is a 30-minute stop really an inconvenenience a few times a year if the rest of the year you NEVER have to stop for fuel?

Of course everyone's situation is different but for many that would be the tradeoff and I think it falls in the favor of EVs. Yes, there are the cases of renters and travelling salesmen but for millions of drivers we are getting close to a day when the convenience and value of EV driving will surpass the ICE vehicle experience. All it will take is one more step change in battery performance. And there is quite a focus on making that happen.

If they doubled the range of the leaf without changing anything else, I could probably talk half my friends into buying one.

tested this twice in the past several weeks and when estimating drive time, it is always traffic dependent but the gas station I went to is roughly a one mile detour (its a mile longer on a slightly different route than my normal route and takes me thru a LOT more congestion) and it was 18 and 24 mins longer.

the 18 minute trip was no waiting at the gas station. the 24 min trip was waiting about 90 seconds for a pump.
the big difference is exiting I-5 at Nisqually exit 114 and doing a drive thru town to Costco verses exiting at exit 111 and turning right away from town to shoot the back road to my house. average time to home from the exit 111 about 6 mins. time from Costco gas less than a mile away; about 15 mins but can be more depending on time of day and traffic. it is thru a major choke point for rush hour traffic

On a practical level, we have to remember that global plug-in vehicle manufacturing capacity is still only a few percent of the global auto market - the bottleneck being battery plants.

So barring multiple giga-factories sprouting in many places, EVs taking over the lion's share of the new car market is probably at least a couple of decades away.

That said, there's certainly reason to expect/hope for a snowball effect whereby ICE vehicles will start feeling obsolete, even almost obscene (as in, you're driving something that can only run on a fossil fuel? What planet do you think you're on? )

i think the real question is when will the bulk of the automotive manufacturing community "get it?" there won't be a transition to 100% EV right away. we are decades away on that. too much money invested in oil and they do have the money to control our spending habits. Supply is good and as long as we continue to sh** on our home, that supply will be abundant for the foreseeable future.

but plug in's will see a dramatic shift and I think that will happen in the next 3-5 years. it is already happening now but pricing is still a bit too high and options still a bit too limited but expect Ford to double their Energi line in less than 2 years.

Another interesting question is what would be the impact on the electrical grid if all ice cars became electric. My car uses about 40 percent of my household use. But I live in a house with gas everything and I only have 1 car.

According to this article:

http://www.autoblog.com/2014/07/03/bp-says-we-have-53-years-oil-left/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We have 53 years of easily-accessible oil left on this planet. Hopefully ICEVs will be extinct sooner than later.

aarond12 said:

According to this article:

http://www.autoblog.com/2014/07/03/bp-says-we-have-53-years-oil-left/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We have 53 years of easily-accessible oil left on this planet. Hopefully ICEVs will be extinct sooner than later.

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oil is used for several things besides gasoline