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RegGuheert
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:32 am

WetEV wrote:This isn't funny.
What's not funny is how people spout off about things they haven't done the least bit of research about.
WetEV wrote:Who is getting measles? Unvaccinated kids, mostly.
Prove it.

When actual medical research has been done on outbreaks of measles in schools, the results indicated that most of the individuals who contracted measles were vaccinated:

Image

In other words, the truth is the exact opposite than what you have just stated, even among kids, who ARE generally more protected by measles vaccination than adults.

Where are measles outbreaks happening? Where the vaccination rate is low.

WetEV wrote:And chickenpox. Get chickenpox as a kid, you may develop shingles as an adult.
Who said anything about chickenpox? Oh, you.

If you think shingles is bad, you should learn about what can you get from measles virus when you are older. It's called SSPE and it is MUCH worse than shingles.

But that has NOTHING to do with the topic of herd immunity to measles and the fact that we are transitioning (have transitioned) from a situation in which babies birth through a couple years and adults were immune to measles to a situation where babies under one year of age are unprotected as are many/most adults. It is a wise change? We will eventually find out.

And then there are the potential benefits of getting measles disease. Unfortunately this topic is very poorly researched, yet we have decided to eradicate the disease anyway.
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
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SageBrush
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:42 am

WetEV wrote:Who is getting measles? Unvaccinated kids, mostly.
Where are measles outbreaks happening? Where the vaccination rate is low.


Quite so.
Reg may be confusing Measles with Pertussis, or he is just another raving anti-vaxxer.
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WetEV
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:47 am

RegGuheert wrote:
WetEV wrote:This isn't funny.
What's not funny is how people spout off about things they haven't done the least bit of research about.

Exactly.

When you understand herd immunity, start a new topic.
WetEV
#49
Most everything around here is wet during the rainy season. And the rainy season is long.
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Oilpan4
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 8:49 am

Every scientific study needs a control group.
Giving kids placebo is unethical.
Convincing parents their kids are better off not getting shots, now that's just creative marketing.
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SageBrush
Posts: 4027
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Location: Colorado

Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:14 am

RegGuheert wrote:When actual medical research has been done on outbreaks of measles in schools, the results indicated that most of the individuals who contracted measles were vaccinated

Pay attention to the title:
"paradox"
"Apparent paradox."

If you had read and understood the article you would realize that the results reflected two things: 1, the high vaccination rates in most of those schools. The relative risk of infection in the non-immunized group was sky high, as expected. You do not have to understand these things by the way, it would have been enough to READ the article.

2, The other issue at play in those schools was the large fraction of students who had undergone a sub-standard vaccination: either a single dose, or vaccination below age 15 months.

So lets move forward a few years:
A two-dose vaccination schedule with one dose after 15 months old confers lifelong immunity is ~ 96% of those vaccinated
Herd immunity to measles is achieved at ~ 92% group sero-positivity.
Anti-vaxxers put at risk the ~ 4% of the community who are non-immune despite vaccination, and those unable to undergo vaccination due to medical reasons. They put themselves and their children at risk, and they are burdens on society when they fall ill.

WetEV is correct, since he was talking about the community outbreaks in the USA in the last couple of years. They have indeed occurred in low-vaccination rate communities.

iPlug exposed the joke so I'll admit it: I am a physician. And you Reg, are making a fool of yourself.
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Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
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SageBrush
Posts: 4027
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Location: Colorado

Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:30 am

Rather than leave Reg to spread poppycock, I suggest that laypeople with an interest read
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/pinkb ... s.html#epi

And a snippet talking about the largest outbreak of Measles in the USA in the modern era of vaccination that occurred in 1989-91 (my BOLD):
Measles Resurgence in 1989–1991
From 1989 through 1991, a dramatic increase in reported measles cases occurred. During these 3 years a total of 55,622 cases were reported (18,193 in 1989; 27,786 in 1990; 9,643 in 1991). In addition to the increased number of cases, a change occurred in their age distribution. Prior to the resurgence, school-aged children had accounted for the largest proportion of reported cases. During the resurgence, 45% of all reported cases were in children younger than 5 years of age. In 1990, 48% of patients were in this age group, the first time that the proportion of cases in children younger than 5 years of age exceeded the proportion of cases in 5–19-year-olds (35%).

Overall incidence rates were highest for Hispanics and blacks and lowest for non-Hispanic whites. Among children younger than 5 years of age, the incidence of measles among blacks and Hispanics was four to seven times higher than among non-Hispanic whites.

A total of 123 measles-associated deaths were reported during this period (death-to-case ratio of 2.2 per 1,000 cases). Forty-nine percent of deaths were among children younger than 5 years of age. Ninety percent of fatal cases occurred among persons with no history of vaccination. Sixty-four deaths were reported in 1990, the largest annual number of deaths from measles since 1971.

The most important cause of the measles resurgence of 1989–1991 was low vaccination coverage.
Measles vaccine coverage was low in many cities, including some that experienced large outbreaks among preschool-aged children throughout the early to mid-1980s. Surveys in areas experiencing outbreaks among preschool-aged children indicated that as few as 50% of children had been vaccinated against measles by their second birthday, and that black and Hispanic children were less likely to be age-appropriately vaccinated than were white children.

In addition, measles susceptibility of infants younger than 1 year of age may have increased. During the 1989–1991 measles resurgence, incidence rates for infants were more than twice as high as those in any other age group. The mothers of many infants who developed measles were young, and their measles immunity was most often due to vaccination rather than infection with wild virus. As a result, a smaller amount of antibody was transferred across the placenta to the fetus, compared with antibody transfer from mothers who had higher antibody titers resulting from wild-virus infection. The lower quantity of antibody resulted in immunity that waned more rapidly, making infants susceptible at a younger age than in the past.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
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SageBrush
Posts: 4027
Joined: Sun Mar 06, 2011 2:28 am
Delivery Date: 13 Feb 2017
Location: Colorado

Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:35 am

RegGuheert wrote:When actual medical research has been done on outbreaks of measles in schools, the results indicated that most of the individuals who contracted measles were vaccinated

Pay attention to the title:
"paradox"
"Apparent paradox."

If you had read and understood the article you would realize that the results reflected two things: 1, the high vaccination rates in most of those schools. The relative risk of infection in the non-immunized group was sky high, as expected. You do not have to understand these things by the way, it would have been enough to READ the article.

2, The other issue at play in those schools was the large fraction of students who had undergone a sub-standard vaccination: either a single dose, or single vaccination below age 15 months.

So lets move forward a few years:
A two-dose vaccination schedule with one dose after 15 months old confers lifelong immunity is ~ 96% of those vaccinated
Herd immunity to measles is achieved at ~ 92% group sero-positivity.
Anti-vaxxers put at risk the ~ 4% of the community who are non-immune despite vaccination, and those unable to undergo vaccination due to medical reasons. They put themselves and their children at risk, and they are burdens on society when they fall ill.

WetEV is correct, since he was talking about the community outbreaks in the USA in the last couple of years. They have indeed occurred in low-vaccination rate communities.

iPlug exposed the joke so I'll admit it: I am a physician. And you Reg, are making a fool of yourself.
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

iPlug
Posts: 277
Joined: Thu Apr 28, 2016 6:47 pm
Delivery Date: 25 Apr 2016
Location: Rocklin, CA

Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:02 am

Wouldn’t normally want to blow anyone’s cover, but the anti-vaxxer nonsense is much more serious than routine forum noise and non-sense. It’s dangerous and real lives and health are at stake. Although it was a bit amusing to see how far this would go on - may still go on.
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User avatar
RegGuheert
Posts: 6419
Joined: Mon Mar 19, 2012 4:12 am
Delivery Date: 16 Mar 2012
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Location: Northern VA

Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 10:28 am

SageBrush wrote:
SageBrush wrote:iPlug exposed the joke so I'll admit it: I am a physician. And you Reg, are making a fool of yourself.
No, I'm not. You are demonstrating how ignorant physicians can be about their own field. The fact that you are a physician has no bearing here. You have not produced a single bit of medical data to support your assertions. I have. Immunologists are taught in graduate school that MMR gives lifetime immunity to measles. Unfortunately, the medical studies do not bear this out, just like the data shown above.

By your own words, you are likely one of the "idiots" who is preventing the worldwide eradication of measles because you likely are not immune. And the assumption that we *should* eradicate measles is just that: an assumption. Measles disease *may* have an important function to the human immune system. Unfortunately, how do you get a drug-company-driven medical community to pursue such a possibility. (There has been a small amount of work in this area, but not much.)

If you want to learn about what one research immunologist has uncovered regarding the research into herd immunity against measles, you can start here:
http://www.tetyanaobukhanych.com/herd_immunity.html
RegGuheert
2011 Leaf SL Demo vehicle
10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
Enphase Inverter Measured MTBF: M190, M215, M250, S280

Durandal
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:09 am

Wow, this thread went seriously OT.
Pulled the trigger on going EV on 10/2016 with a 2012 Leaf SL, traded it in and now I'm a very happy Tesla Model 3 owner.

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