GRA
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Mon Apr 08, 2019 5:49 pm

SageBrush wrote:
GRA wrote:Of course it's part of the solution, but it's not a cheap or quick one. Estimates I've read indicate we'd have to add about 40,000 miles of new transmission lines (and also the necessary interconnections to make a truly national grid) to get PV from the SW and wind from the plains to the coasts (we've got around 435,000 miles of U.S. transmission lines now). Doable but expensive and time consuming, as no one has ever said "please, please build transmission towers and lines across my land/within my sight", so by the time you deal with all the purchasing, permitting, court challenges etc., years have gone by and costs have risen accordingly. Just one of the more recent examples, in a relatively short line:
In Wisconsin, many oppose transmission line to bring western wind power
https://energynews.us/2019/01/22/midwest/in-wisconsin-many-oppose-transmission-line-to-bring-western-wind-power/

Actually, it is both quick to build and inexpensive. You are confusing the technology with politics.
As I point out again and again, close to 100% RE is not a technical problem, it is a political question with massive involvement by special interests.

Not confusing them, pointing out that you can't say oh, it's cheap and easy if we ignore the politics; the politics can't be ignored, at least in a democracy, where everyone is or can be a special interest. The Chinese government can pretty much say "do what we say or else", but I doubt you'd care to live under similar rule- after all, our current President wishes he had that kind of arbitrary power.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Mon Apr 08, 2019 6:21 pm

^^ Your reasoning is screwy.
As an example, vaccinations are cheap and simple but eradicating measles is impossible in the US due to idiots. That does not make vaccination idiotic.

Is the transition to RE hampered by politics ? Yes
Is the transition to RE hampered by technical obstacles or cost ? No
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GRA
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Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Mon Apr 08, 2019 6:56 pm

SageBrush wrote:^^ Your reasoning is screwy.
As an example, vaccinations are cheap and simple but eradicating measles is impossible in the US due to idiots. That does not make vaccination idiotic.

Is the transition to RE hampered by politics ? Yes
Is the transition to RE hampered by technical obstacles or cost ? No.

It's not MY reasoning, it's a fact. You can't pretend that technology alone matters (ignoring the lack of cheap mass storage, which at the moment does still limit the total % that RE can penetrate). Building all that new transmission capacity will also be expensive, especially in a reduced time frame - it's taken us over a century to build what we have now, even though building it used to be a lot easier politically. Which isn't to say that expanding it by ~ 10% is un-affordable, but cheap, no. And of course, this says nothing about replacing all the primary energy (the vast majority) that isn't and at the moment can't be replaced by electricity, no matter how generated, which is both a technical and cost issue. That time frame extends out many decades.

Then there's writing off the cost of existing fossil-fueled power plants, in many cases well before they've reached their financially profitable lifetime. IIRR, the total replacement cost of all the existing electric generation facilities and infrastructure in this country is around $2.5 trillion, so dumping a large portion of that would certainly have major costs.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

SageBrush
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 2:39 am

Time for another recall.
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Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
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RegGuheert
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:45 am

SageBrush wrote:As an example, vaccinations are cheap and simple but eradicating measles is impossible in the US due to idiots. That does not make vaccination idiotic.
Classic: SageBrush makes authoritative statements about a topic he knows nothing about.

Measles vaccinations *has* virtually eradicated measles in the U.S. OTOH, measles vaccination has *reduced* the herd immunity of the adult population in the U.S., thus making the *only* truly-at-risk portion of the population (below age one year) much more at risk in case measles comes into the country from elsewhere.

The bigger question is this: Is it really in our best interest to eradicate measles? Sure, that's the facile answer, but reality is often far from pat answers.
RegGuheert
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SageBrush
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 3:59 am

RegGuheert wrote:Classic: SageBrush makes authoritative statements about a topic he knows nothing about.

:lol: :lol:
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
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11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
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RegGuheert
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 4:39 am

If you understood that, DUE TO THE MEASLES VACCINE, *most* Americans are NOT immune to measles, then you would not be surprised by outbreaks. These outbreaks are not caused by "anti-vaxers", but rather they are the simple result of the fact that vaccination does not result in lifetime immunity. As the portion of the population who had measles disease as children dies off, the proportion of our adult population without immunity to measles increases. The eradication has survived based upon those immune adults plus the immunity of some (most?) of the childhood population as well as the success of quarantines to date. But if we fail to quarantine quickly and completely in the future, there will be massive outbreaks of measles in the adult population in this country.
RegGuheert
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10K mi. on 041413; 20K mi. (55.7Ah) on 080714; 30K mi. (52.0Ah) on 123015; 40K mi. (49.8Ah) on 020817; 50K mi. (47.2Ah) on 120717; 60K mi. (43.66Ah) on 091918.
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SageBrush
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 6:17 am

RegGuheert wrote:If you understood that, DUE TO THE MEASLES VACCINE, *most* Americans are NOT immune to measles

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
2013 LEAF 'S' Model with QC & rear-view camera
Bought off-lease Jan 2017 from N. California
Car is now enjoying an easy life in Colorado
03/2018: 58 Ahr, 28k miles
11/2018: 56.16 Ahr, 30k miles
-----
2018 Tesla Model 3 LR, Delivered 6/2018

iPlug
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 6:19 am

SageBrush, quit pretending to be a physician. ;)
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WetEV
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Re: Economics of Renewable Power, simplified.

Tue Apr 09, 2019 7:06 am

RegGuheert wrote:If you understood that, DUE TO THE MEASLES VACCINE, *most* Americans are NOT immune to measles, then you would not be surprised by outbreaks. These outbreaks are not caused by "anti-vaxers", but rather they are the simple result of the fact that vaccination does not result in lifetime immunity. As the portion of the population who had measles disease as children dies off, the proportion of our adult population without immunity to measles increases. The eradication has survived based upon those immune adults plus the immunity of some (most?) of the childhood population as well as the success of quarantines to date. But if we fail to quarantine quickly and completely in the future, there will be massive outbreaks of measles in the adult population in this country.


This isn't funny.

Who is getting measles? Unvaccinated kids, mostly.

Where are measles outbreaks happening? Where the vaccination rate is low.

And chickenpox. Get chickenpox as a kid, you may develop shingles as an adult. If you had the vaccine for chickenpox, you are unlikely to get shingles as an adult. But still, get the shingles vaccine.

Rate of shingles increases as you get older, there is a vaccine to prevent it for those over 60.

Know what shingles is? Don't get the vaccine as you don't trust vaccines. This might be funny. But I'd doubt if you would think so. "Spasms of pain at the gentlest touch" just doesn't sound like fun. But it might learn you.

Pain is the most common symptom of shingles.

This can be a constant dull, burning, or gnawing pain, or sharp, stabbing pain that comes and goes.

There may also be a blistering skin rash.

This usually appears in one or more distinct bands, called dermatomes. It may also appear on the face in a band, or break out on a quarter of the face.

These dermatomes correspond to a single sensory nerve. This is why infection causes isolated skin lesions, rather than a body-wide rash, and nerve pain.

Typically, shingles takes the following course:

Acute pain, tingling, numbness, and itching on a specific part of the skin, on a single side of the body.
Between 1 and 5 days after the pain begins, a rash appears.
Red blotches emerge that develop into itchy fluid-filled blisters.
The rash looks like chickenpox but only on the band of skin supplied by the affected nerve.
The rash may involve the face, eyes, mouth, and ears in some cases.
Sometimes, the blisters merge, forming a solid red band that looks like a severe burn.
In rare cases (among people with weakened immune systems) the rash may be more extensive and look similar to a chickenpox rash.
If shingles affects the eye, this is called optical shingles. The virus invades an ophthalmic nerve and causes painful eye inflammation and temporary or permanent loss of vision.
New blisters may appear for up to a week.
Inflammation might be caused in the soft tissue under and around the rash.
People with lesions on the torso may feel spasms of pain at the gentlest touch.
The blisters will gradually dry up and form scabs or crusts within 7-10 days. At this point, the rash is no longer considered infectious.
Minor scarring may occur where the blisters have been.
A shingles episode normally lasts 2-4 weeks.
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