Where is the EV industry headed in the next 5 years ?

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evnow

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Joined
Apr 22, 2010
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We are now into 3rd year of Plugins on the road (sorry, excluding the uber expensive 2 seater Roadster).

Here is what we have now.
- Very expensive multi-battery optioned EV
- A couple of 70+ mile medium priced EVs
- A few CA only EVs
- A 40 mile EV range PHEV/EREV
- A few <25 mile EV range PHEV/EREV

One upcoming EV that is
- 80+ EV range and an optional small ICE as emergency backup

So, where is the industry headed in the next 5 years, barring major battery breakthroughs, but a steady 6% to 8% improvement every year ?

I think we will see EVs that have
- Multiple battery options
- Optional ICE backup, potentially with different power and range
- EV premium would be around $5k
- The largest selling model would be about 10,000 units a month

PHEVs I think would have
- Multiple EV range options
- Available in a variety of classes : compacts, family sedans, SUVs/Cross Overs, Vans
- Almost all popular models will have a plugin variation (esp. ones that have a hybrid variation now)
- The Plugin premium will be around $3k
- The largest selling model would be about 15,000 units a month

What do you think, say for model year 2018 ?
 
I'd say the following factors are more likely to have impact on adoption rate and sales over the next 5 years, than technological advances. In order of importance:

- price of gasoline
- whether or not the CAFE standards hold*
- CA and/or other states becoming more aggressive with ZEV mandates.

As far as battery advances, who knows? We're already the beneficiaries of battery improvements that were fantasy until very recently. Go to books.google.com and review articles in Popular Mechanics, for example. Look for references to "electric car" starting in the 1960s and see what they were dreaming up to get past the battery problem. Molten Sulfur/Sodium batteries! Oh My!


*
800px-CAFE_Fuel_Economy_vs_Model_Year_and_Footprint_with_2017-2022_Proposals.png
 
evnow said:
... So, where is the industry headed in the next 5 years, barring major battery breakthroughs, but a steady 6% to 8% improvement every year ? ...
I think you are being pessimistic here. There is a ton of research going on and mass production has a way of lowering prices dramatically. I would say 10% per year at a minimum. Another trend I think you will see is that luxury cars converting heavily to EVs with big battery packs or PHEVs.

There is going to come a point when the masses adopt EVs. This will occur when fast DC charges are plentiful and or trailer generators. I suspect this is 7 years out though, except for California, where it may happen in 5. How long did it take for the Prius to become mainstream here in California? It will probably follow that trend. Many of the worries of EVs were said about the Prius. It is going to cost $10K to replace that battery pack. LOL

For 2018:
Tesla BlueStar will be selling 100K+ per year by 2018 and so will the Leaf 2. The Bluestar low end model will cost $29.9K and have a 160 mile range. (from leaked Tesla spreadsheet) The Leaf 2 will have a 120 mile real range and cost $24K base price. (prediction)
 
It really is much more dependent on world events, for example if there is another major coastal disaster, and say 1/3 of the east coast's coastal regions are underwater, people could wake up from their ICE coma, and start buying EVs larger in numbers, or the government could mandate higher gasoline taxes (to spur EV conversion), also causing EVs to sell faster... Any number of unforeseen events could be a catalyst for sudden EV sales.

Around 2016/17 Teslas Bluestar should be out, 200 mile range, supposed to be in the $45K or so range (about 1/2 the cost of my Model S)
 
I've been asking myself the same question for a while. It is a really tough question to answer because there are so many "what ifs" and so many possible outcomes.

One one hand we have people like Ford trying to offer PHEV products with limited EV capability, but a lower price and possibly an easier proposition for most people to handle right now, but they also lack many of the features that make an EV such a great experience. I have to think back to about 10 years ago when most camcorders still used tapes, but digital cameras were coming in strong and many were offering limited video-clip capability. The video clip capability was low-resolution but it was super convenient. Most people wouldn't give up their full-resolution camcorders at first. But they began to love the convenience of taking video clips on their compact cameras to the point video camera manufacturers realized they had to move to all digital. And now that is the case.

On the other hand we have GM making a car that is fully electric and fully gasoline. Truly the best of both worlds, but with a price so high you could almost afford to buy two separate cars, a gas car and an EV.

Then you have Tesla making a true EV with almost no compromises (except for lack of infrastructure), but at a cost so high you could buy 2 chevy volts.

Then you have Nissan who is making an entry level EV. The price is still a bit high, but very close to the cost of a Prius. The only trouble being the polarizing appearance of the car and the limited range.

Which of these approaches will wind up catching on in the future? it is tough to say. if you go back to the late 1980's and early 1990's and look at laptop computers... or rather I should say "portable computers" you will see a lot of different approaches. It took a few years to figure out which style was going to ultimately be the winner. Even once the shape was more or less standardized in the the clamshell design, there was still a variety of pointing devices. Some had none, requiring an external mouse. Some had an internal trackball. Some used a little pointing stick in the middle of the keyboard. And some used a touch-sensitive trackpad. Well, it turns out the trackpad ended up being the winner. (although I was convinced the trackball was the better option back then)

So.. it is really hard to predict where we will be in 5 or 10 years in regards to the EV and PHEV.
 
growth8table.jpg


over the next few years expect a lot of Volt/PiP competitors. Collectively the auto industry does not intend to compete with Renault-Nissan / Tesla / or even Mitsubishi. But the auto industry will compete for cars with both an electric plug and a fuel inlet

For EV's
Tesla to continue its ascent, Nissan to own the value end of EV market.
 
growth8.jpg


If the USA does get 115k electrified vehicles this year (both EVs and PHEVs) then the adoption trajectory for EVs + PHEVs is strong.

I expect continued, useful gradual improvements in efficiency, which contrasts to lumpy changes in battery capacity to follow automotive cycles (ie a major refresh every 5 or so years - perhaps a 30% jump on LEAF II due to high voltage spinel)

end game is high voltage, manganese rich, lithium rich, li ion - late this decade
 
I find that table to be very optimistic. I find it hard to believe any scenario where the Volt would be selling 80,000 per year. A few years ago I might have believed that. However, I believe the market is severely limited for a vehicle in that price range that seats 4 and such a small class of vehicle. Don't get me wrong, I love the car but I have always liked small cars. But after reading other people's comments for the last 2 years I have a better understanding of what the public wants.

I'm still somewhat optimistic on the Leaf. It has the right combination of features and price to have some mass-market appeal, as long as the message can get out as to what the car really is and what it does.

If Nissan were to come out with a Rogue and Altima that had 100 miles range or a PHEV with 30 to 40 miles EV range, I think they'd a big hit on their hands.
 
The Volt is within PHEV40, and the 80k will be around the start of generation 2 for Volt.
I haven't even put BEVx in the list, mix it in with PHEV40

My aim was not to focus to closely on any one car or category but to overview the parc of plugin vehicles, so to run a fisher pry model with actuals and near forecasts.

A lot of first gen plug in vehicles still have a lot of optimisation to do.
Compare sales of Renault Fluence ZE to Renault ZOE or a FFE to LEAF
 
Where the industry is 5 years from will depend on how fast they build up the QC network. The good news about owning an EV is that an EV can be charged overnight at home.

The bad news is for some of us, that is almost the only place to charge. The few public charge stations we do have are unreliable, poorly located, and hard to use. Why do I need a special card to buy electricity ? This has to change ASAP.

Tesla and Nissan are just now starting to build up a charging network. So far I would say that Tesla is way ahead of Nissan on this issue. However both have a long way to go. We need electricity to be as easy to purchase as gasoline. That means 24x7 and a reasonable price ( not free is OK ).
 
ydnas7 said:
over the next few years expect a lot of Volt/PiP competitors. Collectively the auto industry does not intend to compete with Renault-Nissan / Tesla / or even Mitsubishi. But the auto industry will compete for cars with both an electric plug and a fuel inlet

For EV's
Tesla to continue its ascent, Nissan to own the value end of EV market.
I think you will see a lot of Leaf competition as well. There will also be some of EVs that will occupy the large space between Leaf & S. BMW i3 & Infiniti LE and finally Tesla Gen 3. They all have the potential to reach Tesla S like numbers in terms of sales.

I think more importantly, I see manufacturers branching out and trying other thinds - multiple battery sizes, BEVx, PHEVs. Only Tesla will stick to EVs.
 
evnow said:
I think more importantly, I see manufacturers branching out and trying other thinds - multiple battery sizes, BEVx, PHEVs. Only Tesla will stick to EVs.

I too believe that will be the case. Tesla will likely be the only one not to offer a gasoline engine of sorts. But at the same time, I expect them to lead in innovations - like they already do with battery sizes, but also in areas we haven't thought of / discussed here.
 
ydnas7 said:
growth8table.jpg


over the next few years expect a lot of Volt/PiP competitors. Collectively the auto industry does not intend to compete with Renault-Nissan / Tesla / or even Mitsubishi. But the auto industry will compete for cars with both an electric plug and a fuel inlet

For EV's
Tesla to continue its ascent, Nissan to own the value end of EV market.
Is there a reference for this table? Very nice, thanks!
 
Nubo said:
I'd say the following factors are more likely to have impact on adoption rate and sales over the next 5 years, than technological advances. In order of importance:

- price of gasoline
- whether or not the CAFE standards hold*
- CA and/or other states becoming more aggressive with ZEV mandates.
Agreed, but I tend to weigh sales barriers higher than sales enablers when looking at new technology.

So what are the main barriers to EV adoption?

- Vehicle price: Many Americans do not seem very good at calculating total cost of ownership, so the sticker price is important. Nissan cheap leases are definitely a powerful weapon in this area.
- Price of gasoline: At $3.00/gal., the EV market is quite limited. Above $5.00/gal., it should grow rapidly.
- Price of electricity: High electricity prices reduce demand for EVs. But the big equalizer here is PV solar. That technology moves CA electricty prices from being much higher than what I pay to being cheaper, thus enhancing the EV market there. WA doesn't need PV to have EVs take advantage of all their cheap renewable electricity.
- Education: This seems to be a one-person-at-a-time thing right now. It is a HUGE barrier to adoption. Frankly, most people around here do not even know the Nissan LEAF EXISTS, let alone know what the benefits are.
- Bad press: This includes both true and false bad press. Nissan has generated some bad press in some hot areas with their poor battery life. Tesla has also had bad press, regardless of whether or not it was earned. There will be more examples of this in the future, including some that are worse than anything we have seen so far. Earned/unearned bad reputations tend to stick in people's minds for a long time.
- Government disincentives: In VA, our government is writing laws to remove the gas tax by taxing everyone with more sales tax AND increase the tax on EVs at the same time. Lunacy if you ask me.
- Lack of access to home charging for some: Yes, many have come up with clever ways around this, but it has prevented many others from purchasing EVs/PHEVs.
- Lack of public charging infrastructure: While I'm not a fan of spending money in this area, I agree it would be nice to have a few quick chargers around, if only to eliminate range anxiety.
- Technology limitations: It seems range and battery longevity are the two big items which need to be addressed. Those will come when they come, I suppose. Most in this country can live with the limited range due to access to another vehicle, but battery life hits the bottom line directly.

Most people I talk with will express one or more of the above reasons for not moving to an EV. Some will never be swayed, IMO.
 
KJD said:
Where the industry is 5 years from will depend on how fast they build up the QC network. The good news about owning an EV is that an EV can be charged overnight at home.
The bad news is for some of us, that is almost the only place to charge. The few public charge stations we do have are unreliable, poorly located, and hard to use. Why do I need a special card to buy electricity ? This has to change ASAP.

The trend will be towards bigger batteries, true 100-200 miles range, that will make charging outside the home very rare.. the only place I see fast chargers are on the highways, in between cities. I dont think charging as a business will ever pay except now when technology restricts our range.
 
Herm said:
KJD said:
Where the industry is 5 years from will depend on how fast they build up the QC network. The good news about owning an EV is that an EV can be charged overnight at home.
The bad news is for some of us, that is almost the only place to charge. The few public charge stations we do have are unreliable, poorly located, and hard to use. Why do I need a special card to buy electricity ? This has to change ASAP.

The trend will be towards bigger batteries, true 100-200 miles range, that will make charging outside the home very rare.. the only place I see fast chargers are on the highways, in between cities. I dont think charging as a business will ever pay except now when technology restricts our range.

I have to agree with the bigger batteries. I've been following the Tesla thread here and wasn't really surprised when Tesla dropped the small battery option because no one ordered it.

Yes I know 90% of all trips are within the 80 mile Leaf range. But that is not what will sell EV's. People want to be able to take weekend trips. They want to drive up to Atlanta or to the Beach. Even with a QC network, the Leaf just can't do it. Yea, 30 to 45 mins recharge for every hour of driving. A quick two hour trip to Savanna now becomes at least three. A five hour trip to St. Augustine Fl becomes becomes a full 8 hr day. The ratio between driving and time waiting to recharge is just too great.

So what do I see within the next five years.
1. multible options on battery size maybe even a Leaf with a 100kWh battery
2. Small micro turbine range extenders on ether a carry rack on the rear receiver or a small trailor for longer trips.

Just my two cents worth.
 
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=14073" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
58,600 YTD + 4 remaining months at 11k would equal 102k plugin vehicles for the year, less than the 115k forecast but still reasonable considering Nissan's electrode supply issues.
 
In 5 yrs I pretty much expect the EV industry to be where it is now except more so.
LEAF, Volt and Tesla are all successes (in their own way).
Driving an electric power-train is clearly superior to ICE and more people will figure this out and pay more for it than the same car with only an ICE power-train. The price difference will be less. Fears about range anxiety will subside.
Families will do what many here have, drive a BEV for commuting and a PHEV for long distance, spur of the moment trips.
In 5 years the option to buy a vehicle that can plug-in will be commonplace. Costs will drop. Minivans and pickups will plug-in but will have an ICE as well.

Roughly 5% of all new cars sold in 5 years will have a plug. 30% in CA. No more carpool lane stickers for BEVs in CA.
PHEV will be about 1/2 the sales and BEV the other half. In such a short time, battery plants will not be able to supply major car makers enough kWh to accommodate large numbers of long range BEVs like Tesla, so they'll go with city cars like LEAF and REEV or PHEV like Volt to satisfy the demand. Nissan and GM will sell over 300k cars per year that plug in. FCEV will miss the parade and Toyota and Honda will play catch-up. Toyota will catch-up before Honda (who, I fear, might be lost for good). The midwest and deep south will be the last to adapt.

There will be demand by people who can't easily charge at home (apt dwellers) that will require a years long build-out of condo and workplace 240V access points.

It will take 10 years to figure out if BEV can dominate. That's mostly due to battery supply issues and infrastructure issues.

I actually think the CAFE standards will be met ahead of schedule.
 
Doesn't Nissan plan to have 5 BEV models in future? I'll be driving a 2017 eNV200 with 150 mile range come this day 2018.

The Tesla Model E will be the wife's car.

Gas is down to $13.49/gal. Now that the Chinese economy is slumping.

There's still a lot of EV competition, but they're so behind the curve, who needs them?

Only a couple more years until I can trade in the van for an autonomous drive EV. Just in time, I'm getting too old to drive.
 
RegGuheert said:
- Bad press: ... Nissan has generated some bad press in some hot areas with their poor battery life. ... Earned/unearned bad reputations tend to stick in people's minds for a long time.
- Technology limitations: It seems range and battery longevity are the two big items which need to be addressed. Those will come when they come, I suppose. Most in this country can live with the limited range due to access to another vehicle, but battery life hits the bottom line directly.
Very good comprehensive post, but the items I've quoted are the most important.
Nissan LEAF is in a really tough situation with a 24 kWH (21.5 kWh usable) battery when new, and a battery longevity that they initially wouldn't warrant on capacity at all. And now with 2 1/2 years of real world experience they have generated their own bad press through bad results and bad inadequate response and horrendous public relations.
They only reluctantly gave everybody a 5 year, 60,000 mile capacity warranty of 66.25% capacity primarily to settle the early class action law suit; less backing on capacity than they were talking about 3 years ago for 8 year capacity loss.
And with 21.5 kWh to start with brand new, the degraded range is around 1/2 of what they attempted to market as a 100 mile vehicle.
Clear now that it is only something in the 40 to 60 mile range between charges for most people under typical US driving conditions.
Nissan is earning their bad reputation more and more each day.
 
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