Your predictions for the US Plugins in 2013

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evnow

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Let us see your predictions for 2013 for the 2013 Plugin market.

How many will Leaf sell, for eg ?

Will Model S have a large queue by the end of 2013 as well - or will it go the Leaf way once enthusiasts have got their cars ?

How much will Leaf '13 cost ?

How much will i3 cost ? How well will it sell ?

Will Infiniti LE's price be announced ? How much ?

And many more topics ...
 
Personally, unless there's some massive gas price increase or oil shock/gasoline shortage, I think overall US plug-in vehicle sales will continue to muddle along in 2013. I have no idea if that increase or shortage will happen.

I'd guess that for CY '13, the Leaf will probably sell no more than 12K units in the US, 18K tops. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't get past 10K.

Judging by http://www.hybridcars.com/december-2011-dashboard-sales-still-climbing-35093/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and http://www.hybridcars.com/november-2012-dashboard-65420" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, US Leaf sales averaged 806/month in 2011 and 694/month in 2012. Even 12K/year is already a 24% increase over 2011, which was the best year so far but we've got more and more EV and PHEV choices now.

If we do have the above massive gas price increase or severe oil shock, then my numbers would be too low and I predict Nissan really cranking up production and passing 15K units/year in the US. Even in about the worst gas price increase ($8/gal) and oil shock (embargo, rationing, etc.) case I could think of for '13, I don't think Nissan could move more than 70K Leafs in the US in '13.

'13 Leaf cost? Perhaps we'll see '13 SV and SL prices go back to the '11 level of MSRP of $32,780 and $33,720, or maybe even $1-2K less than those. My wild guess is that the lower trim model (S?) will be $2K below the SV trim (or whatever the middle trim level is called).

All these numbers are OTOH, only referencing some prior #s, w/o much in the way of calculations.

I know almost nothing about the i3 as I don't follow it, but I doubt it'll start for less than $35K, just from glancing at starting prices of BMW-branded ICEVs. No clue as to how many it'll sell and when it'll even start sales, but I doubt it'll reach PiP, Volt annual sales or sell at an average monthly rate even 1/2 of the plug-in leader, whatever that is. BMW simply doesn't sell many cars in the US vs. the Detroit 3 or the top 3 Japanese automakers (http://www.autoblog.com/2012/12/03/november-2012-storm-surge-edition/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;).

I predict the Accord PHV will sell very slowly and probably will have a monthly sales rate of 1/4 of the PiP, if not worse.

I believe the compliance cars Spark EV and Fiat 500e will sell in tiny numbers and only get sales that are 1/6 or less that of the Leaf in terms of avg. monthly sales rate.

I predict that in the US, PHEVs/EREVs overall will still outsell pure BEVs.

I predict Coda will go banrkupt in 2013 and we'll continue to see Fisker not do well. I think the chances are pretty high Fisker will go under in 2013 as well.

I doubt we'll see widespread deployment of Frankenplug (J1772 combo plug) stations. Perhaps where new CHAdeMO stations are being deployed or where they're being upgraded we'll see stations w/Frankenplug and CHAdeMO. I doubt there will be more than 25 Frankenplug stations in the whole US by end of 2013, if even that.

The Tesla prediction's a toughie. I'll have to think about it more.
 
At this point I am being a bit pessimistic as well. I see the 2013 numbers being similar to the 2012 numbers. Depending on the USA specifications and pricing of the 2013 Leaf, it is possible to see an uptake in sales for it.

I see the Volt staying at roughly 2,000 to 3,000 per month depending on deals being offered by GM. I suspect GM will try to keep the prices in that range so they don't lose too much money, but at the same token will be able to claim the vehicle is selling good enough to keep the image up. So I'm going to guess around 25,000 sales for the year.

I imagine Tesla will sell approx. 20,000 cars for 2013.

PiP should be moving into a full rollout so the sales may increase some, but I'm not expecting more than 20,000 sales for the year.

C-Max is still a big question mark for me. Not sure what to make of it yet.

Now if gas prices go through the roof, anything is possible.
 
evnow said:
Let us see your predictions for 2013 for the 2013 Plugin market.
How many will Leaf sell, for eg ?
This depends on how Nissan handles the battery warranty issue.
If they write a new real warranty then sales could really take off. I hope this is the case.
If they continue to fumble the battery issue, then the Leaf will die a slow and painful death.

Will Model S have a large queue by the end of 2013 as well - or will it go the Leaf way once enthusiasts have got their car
Tesla appears to have much better respect for the customer than Nissan, so I think sales will be pretty strong thru 2013.
In 2014 demand will slow down as all the early adopters will have already purchased in 2013. The Tesla super charger stations will grow the EV market to people that would not otherwise consider an EV. The solar powered charge stations will be the key in 2014 and beyond. I hope that they do really well on this issue. It will be an example others could follow HELLO NISSAN

How much will Leaf '13 cost ?
It will cost slightly less than the 2011. Nissan made a huge mistake when they jacked up the price of the 2012 and now they need to fix that mistake.

How much will i3 cost ? How well will it sell ?
It will cost more than a Leaf and less than a Tesla.
Sales will be dependent on the EPA range estimate. If the EPA number is more than 100 miles then they will have a winner.
If however the EPA range is less than 100 miles then sales numbers will be very small.

Will Infiniti LE's price be announced ? How much ?

This is totally dependent on if Nissan continues to fumble the AZ battery issue. Unless they fix this problem and quick there will NOT be an Infiniti EV in any shape or form. The Infiniti EV also needs a larger battery pack to be a real success. If they give it the 24kwh Leaf battery then it will fail.
 
KJD said:
Tesla appears to have much better respect for the customer than Nissan, so I think sales will be pretty strong thru 2013.
Remember, Leaf sales # went down before the battery issues appeared.
 
evnow said:
KJD said:
Tesla appears to have much better respect for the customer than Nissan, so I think sales will be pretty strong thru 2013.
Remember, Leaf sales # went down before the battery issues appeared.

Tesla will sell more EVs than all the other EVs combined in the USA, however sales in 2014 will be half of 2013's 18,000 units. Tesla announces production of Model X, and names the Blue Star Gen III car.

LEAF will muddle along. Joe SixPack doesn't know about battery issues and Nissan goes into summer 2013 much like 2012. Nissan internally cancels Infiniti LE and other EVs after Carlos Ghosn leaves the Renault Nissan alliance. The LEAF is kept in production to not default on its US government $1.6 billion loan.

Nissan doesn't install 100 DC chargers in San Francisco (like stated in Sept 2012) and handles the issue like other Nissan Bullshit(TM).... situation normal. Nissan announces that after the phenomenal 142 mile (228 km) range for 2013, for 2014 the LEAF will go 1,420 miles. Of course, the battery is unchanged from 2011-2012-2013, but the range numbers are repeated ad nauseum all over the interent.

Government agencies get involved in the hundreds and hundreds of complaints of reduced range autonomy of their LEAF.

BMW prices i3 well above LEAF, and not surpringly, it sells in smaller volumes. Customers are upset when there's no place to quick charge. Range extender version is more expensive than a Volt or any other plug-in oil burner. Those cars (Volt, CMax, Prius) all do ok.

All the other quasi compliance cars (Spark, Fit, Smart, Fiat 500, Rav4, Focus, et al) will be trickled out in tiny numbers so that their respective manufacturers can continue to sell millions of oil burners in California.

Mitsubishi iMiev is cancelled. Coda is moribund or BK.
 
I'd guess that for CY '13, the Leaf will probably sell no more than 12K units in the US, 18K tops. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't get past 10K

I agree with this.
 
If the price of 2013 LEAF is at or lower than the incentive 2012 I think Nissan will do well and could double sales.

Yes I think Model S will have a dip in demand(and maybe price) once the initial backlog is filled.
 
Nissan proposes a fully sponsored LEAF run from Los Angeles CA to Smyrna TN, but only if Tony Williams is the lead driver. Tony accepts and announces: "Let's go, I'm packed, all I need is a tooth brush and a change of underwear."
 
TonyWilliams said:
evnow said:
KJD said:
Tesla appears to have much better respect for the customer than Nissan, so I think sales will be pretty strong thru 2013.
Remember, Leaf sales # went down before the battery issues appeared.
...
LEAF will muddle along. Joe SixPack doesn't know about battery issues and Nissan goes into summer 2013 much like 2012.
...
Government agencies get involved in the hundreds and hundreds of complaints of reduced range autonomy of their LEAF.

BMW prices i3 well above LEAF, and not surpringly, it sells in smaller volumes. Customers are upset when there's no place to quick charge. Range extender version is more expensive than a Volt or any other plug-in oil burner.
Agreed re: Joe SixPack not knowing about the battery degradation in hot climates and evnow's sales comment.

Yes, I imagine there will be a *many* complaints again by mid-summer from those in hot climates for Leaf owners/lesees going thru their 2nd hot summer or beyond w/a Leaf. Forgot about that as a prediction.

Good point about range extender i3. It seems highly likely it'll be priced higher than a Volt. And, if it uses Frankenplug, I agree re: the complaints.
ebill3 said:
Nissan proposes a fully sponsored LEAF run from Los Angeles CA to Smyrna TN, but only if Tony Williams is the lead driver. Tony accepts and announces: "Let's go, I'm packed, all I need is a tooth brush and a change of underwear."
LOL! That's quite the opposite of what I'd expect him to pack. It might be doable if there were enough working CHAdeMO chargers along the route, esp. if they were ideally spaced. The chances of that seem almost nil right now.
 
I think people who believe sales are slow due to battery issues are deluded. Joe public is totally unaware of this. I've never once had anyone mention it to me when people talk to me about my leaf. Unlike when driving the Volt I've had a few people ask about the fires. So until something hits the major news media about it, I don't think the public knows. And the dealerships certainly aren't going to tell people.
 
ebill3 said:
Nissan proposes a fully sponsored LEAF run from Los Angeles CA to Smyrna TN, but only if Tony Williams is the lead driver. Tony accepts and announces: "Let's go, I'm packed, all I need is a tooth brush and a change of underwear."
That's quite the opposite of what I'd expect him to pack. It might be doable if there were enough working CHAdeMO chargers along the route, esp. if they were ideally spaced. The chances of that seem almost nil right now.

We could run a whole FLEET of 2013 LEAFs from Seattle, Portland, San Fran Bay, LA and San Diego to Tennessee, each with a Nissan truck/van and a 55kVa generator and Sumitomo charger. Easy.

Then, drive them all to New York, Maine, and down to Florida for a final blow out party!!!!

I'm game.
 
adric22 said:
I think people who believe sales are slow due to battery issues are deluded. Joe public is totally unaware of this. I've never once had anyone mention it to me when people talk to me about my leaf. Unlike when driving the Volt I've had a few people ask about the fires. So until something hits the major news media about it, I don't think the public knows. And the dealerships certainly aren't going to tell people.

you are correct in that sales are not slow due to any specific issues but batteries in itself are part of the reason. everyone has experience with batteries and those experiences run from "very bad" at the good end to things much worse. Trust me when I say this; the uninformed public has created degradation much worse than Phoenix will ever see all in their minds.

it could be loosely categorized as mistrust of new technology but its not. to most people, a battery is a battery. goes dead unexpectedly, needs replacing often, etc.
 
adric22 said:
I think people who believe sales are slow due to battery issues are deluded. Joe public is totally unaware of this. I've never once had anyone mention it to me when people talk to me about my leaf. Unlike when driving the Volt I've had a few people ask about the fires. So until something hits the major news media about it, I don't think the public knows. And the dealerships certainly aren't going to tell people.

+1 on that.

The recent gas crisis in California that spiked gas prices to $5-$6+ didn't provide an appreciable jump in sales in California. Most sheeple are just content to pay $6/gallon and drive a 15MPG pickup 30 miles round trip to work. Even though they never haul anything other than themselves to work and back, their truck costs 10X the amount per mile and has a worse crash rating than the Leaf. They will pay more in fuel than the payment on a new Leaf. I don't quite know how to overcome this built in stupidity about EVs in the US. Education and awareness can only go so far.
 
TurboFroggy said:
Most sheeple are just content to pay $6/gallon and drive a 15MPG pickup 30 miles round trip to work.

If price of gas is used as main point to sell Leaf/EV, than I wonder why sale of EV is not that great in Europe when gas price is $8/gallon?
 
EdmondLeaf said:
TurboFroggy said:
Most sheeple are just content to pay $6/gallon and drive a 15MPG pickup 30 miles round trip to work.

If price of gas is used as main point to sell Leaf/EV, than I wonder why sale of EV is not that great in Europe when gas price is $8/gallon?
There are likely many reasons but I think these are two factors (of many): the economy in some of Europe has been terrible. Look up UK GDP contraction, for instance. Look for news regarding Spain, Italy, Greece esp. their economy, debt crisis and unemployment rate (over 25% in Greece and ~25% in Spain) along w/the need for austerity there.

If http://www.energy.eu/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; is correct, electricity isn't very cheap in many places there either. Use Google to convert (e.g. Google for 0.2 euros in usd).
 
EdmondLeaf said:
TurboFroggy said:
Most sheeple are just content to pay $6/gallon and drive a 15MPG pickup 30 miles round trip to work.

If price of gas is used as main point to sell Leaf/EV, than I wonder why sale of EV is not that great in Europe when gas price is $8/gallon?
BTW, if you haven't paid attention to the dire situation in Europe that I mentioned, here's a piece that aired about the problems in Europe in April 2012: http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7404666n" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

Re: the 15 mpg pickup... in my area, there's still an insane # of monstrosity class (full-sized, 5200+ lb.) SUVs (e.g. Tahoe, Escalade, Expedition) running around almost always being driven solo and/or minimal passengers. It's ridiculous, esp. even more so if they're of the even heavier and bigger extended length variety (e.g. Suburban, Yukon XL, etc.) These beasts are in the 15 mpg combined or worse range as well. There aren't that many monstrosity pickups here.

The other day when I was out eating, I saw 2 Ford Exxon Valdezes (http://www.sdearthtimes.com/et0399/et0399s4.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;) in the span of 5 minutes. These beasts weigh 6500+ lbs and were exempt from EPA fuel economy testing (and counting against Ford's CAFE numbers) because their GVWRs were >8500 lbs and no longer considered a "light" truck. One was driven solo and the other had 1 or 2 passengers.

Sometimes I've seen two Hummer H2s running around in the local supermarket's parking lot at the same time. These were also exempt but I hear 9-11 mpg is even wishful thinking.

The only thing that gives me a little hope is that I'm FINALLY starting to see the Tesla Model S pop up. I FINALLY saw my first one in the wild (not at their stores) in the past week or so. It was a black one parked at Walgreens.

Oddly, in the last few days, the sightings have gone way up. I saw a red and silver one today. The other day I saw a white one. Red and white one were sorta in my area. The silver one was in Cupertino. There also are a few Leafs running around in my area, but sometimes, the # of Hummers I see out in a day outnumbers Leafs.

Maybe some of those people spending stupid money going on battering ram of death-class SUVs will go for something smarter.
 
you have a point, yet we really won't know if what caused the numbers to drop initially is the same as what has kept sales down since. I think it's fair to surmise that the battery issue has helped keep the market depressed since the issue blew up, but it's all speculation. I do believe that Tesla has a better understanding of how to satisfy their customers and keep them crowing mostly.

evnow said:
KJD said:
Tesla appears to have much better respect for the customer than Nissan, so I think sales will be pretty strong thru 2013.
Remember, Leaf sales # went down before the battery issues appeared.
 
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