GRA
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GCC: EIA: US refineries running at near-record highs

Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:24 pm

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2018/08/20180814-eia.html

US refineries are running at record levels in response to robust domestic and international demand for motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

For the week ending 6 July 2018, the four-week average of US gross refinery inputs surpassed 18 million barrels per day (b/d) for the first time on record. . . .

Despite record-high inputs, refinery utilization as a percentage of capacity has not surpassed the record set in 1998. Rather than higher utilization, refinery runs have increased with increased refinery capacity. US refinery capacity increased by 862,000 barrels per calendar day (b/cd) between 1 January 2011 and 1 January 2018. . . .

The four-week average of finished motor gasoline product supplied—EIA’s proxy measure of US consumption—typically hits the highest level of the year in August. Weekly data for this summer to date suggest that this year’s peak in finished motor gasoline product supplied is likely to match that of 2016 and 2017, the two highest years on record, at 9.8 million b/d. The four-week average of finished motor gasoline product supplied for the week ending August 3, 2018, was at 9.7 million b/d. . . .
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

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WetEV
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Re: GCC: EIA: US refineries running at near-record highs

Wed Aug 15, 2018 1:59 pm

GRA wrote:
US refineries are running at record levels in response to robust domestic and international demand for motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).


Peak horse in the USA was decades after the end of the Model T production.
WetEV
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GRA
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Re: GCC: EIA: US refineries running at near-record highs

Wed Aug 15, 2018 5:14 pm

WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:
US refineries are running at record levels in response to robust domestic and international demand for motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Peak horse in the USA was decades after the end of the Model T production.

Not quite sure of your point, but in any case it's incorrect. Peak horse in the U.S. seems to have been some year from 1915 to 1919 inclusive, while the Model T went out of production in 1927: http://www.humanesociety.org/assets/pdfs/hsp/soaiv_07_ch10.pdf See the 2nd page (176).
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

WetEV
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Re: GCC: EIA: US refineries running at near-record highs

Thu Aug 16, 2018 7:52 am

GRA wrote:
WetEV wrote:
GRA wrote:

Peak horse in the USA was decades after the end of the Model T production.

Not quite sure of your point, but in any case it's incorrect. Peak horse in the U.S. seems to have been some year from 1915 to 1919 inclusive, while the Model T went out of production in 1927: http://www.humanesociety.org/assets/pdfs/hsp/soaiv_07_ch10.pdf See the 2nd page (176).


I think I was wrong on peak horse. Checking more sources is usually valuable.

It seems that peak horse was partly driven by the spread of the steam engine, both tractors and stationary as well as by the automobile... Especially in the UK, where peak horse seems to be before 1900. However, sources seem fairly poor quality...

My point was that we wouldn't expect gasoline usage to decline until the fraction of BEVs on the road is larger than the growth rate of ICEs. And that will be years after the fraction of BEVs sold is larger than the growth rate of ICEs...And of course the growth rate of ICEs is more complex as the size varies. Currently the size of ICEs is increasing.

So gasoline usage at record highs is not news. We are not yet at peak gasoline. Perhaps in roughly a decade?

Norway might be past peak gasoline.
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RegGuheert
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Re: GCC: EIA: US refineries running at near-record highs

Thu Aug 16, 2018 8:41 am

WetEV wrote:My point was that we wouldn't expect gasoline usage to decline until the fraction of BEVs on the road is larger than the growth rate of ICEs. And that will be years after the fraction of BEVs sold is larger than the growth rate of ICEs...And of course the growth rate of ICEs is more complex as the size varies. Currently the size of ICEs is increasing.
In addition to this issue, I believe Jevon's paradox applies more directly to the issue of moving from gasoline to electricity as a fuel than it does to the transition from grain to gasoline, if for no other reason than the fact that ICEVs and BEVs can more easily share the roadways than can cars and horses.
WetEV wrote:Norway might be past peak gasoline.
So might the US be. We are still slightly below the peak from 2007 and currently the trend is flat. But 2018 could change that.
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goldbrick
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Re: GCC: EIA: US refineries running at near-record highs

Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:44 pm

I'm pretty sure I'm past peak gasoline. Well over half my miles last year were EV, even including my wife and possibly the kids. I still do road trips in an ICE but that will be at > 30mpg and I cover more miles commuting/shopping/etc than my yearly road trip total.

One downside of owning a Leaf is that I find myself on my bike a lot less. I'm trying to remedy that but it's so easy to just pop the 2 miles to the grocery store in the Leaf instead of on the bike. I'd never do that to an ICE car since it's not good for the drivetrain to be started but not fully warmed up.

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Re: GCC: EIA: US refineries running at near-record highs

Thu Aug 16, 2018 2:57 pm

goldbrick wrote:I'm pretty sure I'm past peak gasoline. Well over half my miles last year were EV, even including my wife and possibly the kids. I still do road trips in an ICE but that will be at > 30mpg and I cover more miles commuting/shopping/etc than my yearly road trip total.

One downside of owning a Leaf is that I find myself on my bike a lot less. I'm trying to remedy that but it's so easy to just pop the 2 miles to the grocery store in the Leaf instead of on the bike. I'd never do that to an ICE car since it's not good for the drivetrain to be started but not fully warmed up.

That's the seductive siren song of a motor vehicle. Resistance is (NOT) futile! :lol:

I worry that I might similarly wimp out if I had a PEV that wouldn't leave me feeling guilty about emissions for such trips. As it is, I consider anything within a 5 mile radius as bike-only unless conditions are really bad, and 0.5-3 miles is bike mandatory (occasionally, walk/jog). Another concern: While I usually eat healthy, every once in a while I feel the need to go all T. Rex and devour mass quantities of meat, and there's a shopping mall 2.7 miles away from me with an All-you-can-eat buffet that services that craving. However, it's also the only place around that has free (2 hour) L2 charging, and one of my rules is that I have to earn such a pig-out by getting there and back under my own power; I can see having a PEV would make it all too easy to rationalize driving instead of riding there, because I could get a free charge. One corrective factor is that whenever I eat at such places I invariably see a few people who should never, ever eat there, morbidly obese individuals if not entire families who are one deep-fried drumstick away from having their (remaining) toes amputated due to diabetes, or suffering their first (or subsequent) heart attack or stroke.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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