Gasoline May Rise Above $5 a Gallon
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DanCar
Well-known member
I drove from LA to Phoenix in an Impala rental using 3/4th of a tank. Cost to fill up was only $34, wow! That has to be making people's wallets happy. If this continues will definitely put a dent in EV sales.
GRA
Well-known member
If you can charge at home, then gas has to be still lower. If, as is the case for 44% of U.S. households you can't charge at home and have to use a public charger, gas is already cheaper in many places. For instance, the closest public charging to me are some Blinks 0.4 miles away, which charge $0.49/kWh. Figure charging efficiency of 85-90%, split the difference and call it 87.5%, that's $0.56/kWh. Even at a totally unrealistic year-round miles/kWh of 4.0, that's $0.14/mile. Since my car is driven almost entirely on freeways at cruise speeds of 65-70, and I use heat/defrost as necessary, a more realistic year round m/kWh is 3.0-3.2. or about $0.18/mile. My soon-to-turn 12 years old Forester gets at least 27 mpg HWY, and gas at my corner station is $2.70 here in the ultra-high priced Bay Area; I can get it for at least $0.20/gal less within a couple of miles, so I'm looking at $0.10 or less/mile for a not particularly fuel-efficient car.DaveinOlyWA said:
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
GRA said:
I am happy to hear that gasoline is the only regular expense in your car...
LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
^^^ Insurance and depreciation dwarf the other expenses in TCO, probably why most people could care less about EVs, which are actually worse on those two components.
GRA
Well-known member
Indeed. In fact, fixed costs make up around 80% of TCO, which is why cost/mile drops as you drive an ICE more. This is one area where carsharing really helps, because it shifts the balance from fixed costs to show people cost/mile. Makes people really aware of the cost of making multiple runs to the store because of the convenience, instead of combining trips, using another form of transport, or doing without.LTLFTcomposite said:
And as my sole car, my 12 year old Forester retains the same ability to take me on _every_ trip that I originally bought it for. Given how little I drive it (just under 62,000 miles odo) it only needs servicing every two-three years or so. It helps if you buy a car that has a better than average or in this case much better than average Frequency of Repair record from CR, and relatively inexpensive parts. Assuming it doesn't get totaled and gas prices don't shoot up into the stratosphere, I suspect it will last me 20-25 years before becoming more expensive to keep than replace, i.e. long enough that I can switch directly to a BEV or better yet (for my situation at the moment, given current capabilities and infrastructure) FCHV that can meet all my driving needs at an affordable price, instead of having to buy a PHEV as a transitional vehicle. If my driving pattern were different a PHEV would make more sense, but as it is I'm only concerned with HWY mpg, and currently something like a turbo-diesel wagon would be the best fit for my needs.
JeremyW
Well-known member
I just filled up my insight: $15 for 300 miles of driving. Sounds great until I pay the $330 maintenence bill!
abasile
Well-known member
+1. We have a 12 year old car with AWD that we keep for snow use. It gets driven as little as possible, partly because we really don't want to spend any more money or time than necessary to keep an ICE running.JeremyW said:
With the LEAF we have the potential cost of replacing the battery pack, but as long as we can live with the declining capacity, Nissan is obligated under the terms of the warranty to keep the original battery working for eight years or 100K miles. Again, aside from the declining range/capacity (which will hopefully be better with the 2015 model), our LEAF has been remarkably trouble free.
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
GRA said:
that is a _ _ _. you are making assumptions about the future which you cannot make. if you are even close to your "2-3" year maintenance cycle successfully, it would be from pure LUCK.
it amazes me that you can take your life experience as if it was some sort of norm to make broad statements about gas cars. fact of the matter is they become MUCH more unreliable than an EV EVER COULD. if you have any doubts about this, get on the freeway. I be willing to bet you that you will see a broken down car with plenty of gas in the tank that will not go.
in my EV, I will know what it can do because unlike a gas car it tells me daily what it is capable of and I would MUCH rather drive a car with a degrading battery pack than to simply be stranded without warning one day...
my advice; beef up your preventive maintenance program to increase the odds of you making it to your destination
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
abasile said:
ah, now we are more like "normal" people (sorry but this is fallout from my previous response to GRA) and this how we treat older gas cars, with kid gloves because we know that sooner or later, it will cost a lot of money to keep it running so we want to delay that day as much as possible.
so is it better to fret over every use of a car wondering if "today will be the day" and hoping you are in an area that has cell service so you can call for help?
or to drive an EV that basically gives you a warning YEARS in advance (or months in case of Phoenix... :? ) of a maintenance issue?
JeremyW
Well-known member
GRA, I hope you aren't changing your oil only every 2-3 years! That would be pretty bad. :shock:
Just for perspective, my Insight needed the following for "this round":
Oil Change
Transmission fluid change (probably has never done in this car)
Coolant top off (might be leaking from plastic parts of radiator)
Total: ~$100
Also included are two new aero panels and a trunk latch fix for $330.
To do:
Radiator
Oxygen sensor
The radiator could strand me so it gets replaced next month. If I do get stranded I hope my gf isn't with me. I'd never hear the end of it!
Anyway that should be the end of it (ha!) for a while, it's a pretty reliable car otherwise.
Just for perspective, my Insight needed the following for "this round":
Oil Change
Transmission fluid change (probably has never done in this car)
Coolant top off (might be leaking from plastic parts of radiator)
Total: ~$100
Also included are two new aero panels and a trunk latch fix for $330.
To do:
Radiator
Oxygen sensor
The radiator could strand me so it gets replaced next month. If I do get stranded I hope my gf isn't with me. I'd never hear the end of it!
Anyway that should be the end of it (ha!) for a while, it's a pretty reliable car otherwise.
LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
Cars have a lot of rubbery parts, EVs somewhat fewer, but still plenty, that start to get dicey as a car ages. Heck on my old minivan I had to replace all the windshield washer tubing at the ten year mark. All the hoses, bushings gaskets, seals, you name it, an old car is an old car no matter how you cut it. I'm not buying the idea that an electric power train somehow buys you automotive immortality, when the paint is faded, the dash is cracked, and the upholstery is stained and torn, it's going to be an old POS not worth dealing with, just like any other car.
dhanson865
Well-known member
JeremyW said:
OK I have 3 gas engines to maintain (ignore the lawn mower and such for now)
#1 early 90s Nissan Pickup (D21) that gets driven once a week just to keep the gas from going stale, call it 5 miles a week (its really more like 3 but I let it idle at the halfway mark when picking up a pizza. I don't turn it off, I just burn gas until the temp gauge gets up to normal and I drive it back home). Maybe a few hundred miles a year, definitely below 1,000. This vehicle is a leftover from my father who is in a nursing home. I won't be selling it until he dies but that could be any time from years ago to years to go. I'll probably be doing this take care of the vehicle nobody drives dance for a while.
#2 late 90s Saturn that gets driven several days a week but only sees about 5 miles a day on average, maybe 5,000-8000 miles a year given some random extra trips. It's the daily driver for one person but we use the Prius instead wherever possible.
#3 2005 Prius that gets driven daily and sees more like 30 miles per day. I replaced my tires at the beginning of 2014 and I still haven't done the 10,000 mile rotation so I'm thinking even this car sees less than 10,000 per year. It gets used more because it has working AC and uses less gas than the Saturn so it's a win/win always want to use it role for now.
I have no qualms with changing the oil on the Prius at 7,500 mile intervals on conventional or 10,000 miles on synthetic. It's using a small amount of oil so my last change was to 0w-20 and I'm topping off with 5w-20 high mileage between oil changes.
The other two vehicles are getting bog standard 5w-30. Given the driving patterns above they obviously need to be changed based on time more than miles so when do you pull the trigger on a car that sees less than 1000 miles a year? It feels like a waste to pour out oil that hasn't seen 500 miles.
also keep in mind the oil filter is changed every time the oil is so the filters aren't seeing many miles either.
http://www.edmunds.com/car-care/stop-changing-your-oil.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.edmunds.com/car-care/when-should-you-change-your-oil.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I guess I'm willing to pull the trigger on the one year mark if I don't hit the miles but I'm not on pins and needles if I let it slide a few months so long as the end of life slide isn't in a heat wave or generally the hottest part of summer. If I start a change on the begging of summer I could do a change every 13-16 months working my way around the calender until I hit summer again in a few years.
And yes I'd love to replace the Saturn with a Leaf and turn the Prius into a 5,000 mile a year pony and put 10,000 plus on the Leaf. It's on my to do list when used Leafs get cheap enough, maybe before the hot of this next summer since the AC doesn't work on the Nissan or the Saturn.
Until I sell the other gassers I will be sparing with the random less needed oil changes.
GRA
Well-known member
Well, no, it's not, because I keep a log book and full maintenance records for all my cars, and do all the scheduled maintenance on mileage. My first Subie got driven more, so its maintenance was about every year or two. Oh, and I had to replace the timing belts on it about every 40k miles, but other than that, I've never had any unscheduled maintenance on either of them (see below), although the '88 Subie did lose about a quart of oil per tank after about 12 years. Replacing the oil was far cheaper than fixing the problem. I find that if I buy a highly reliable car and do all the scheduled maintenance, cars will last a long time. My first Subie was at 130k miles and 14.5 years when it was stolen, and replaced by my current one, which gets even easier treatment.DaveinOlyWA said:
My experience and my dad's experience, but I certainly won't make broad statements about cars as how you use them matters, and my usage almost exclusively for trips and relying on feet/bike/transit for local transport is way outside the norm for the U.S., although becoming more common. Besides, unlike most people I do the maintenance when scheduled and keep full records. IME, most of the people broken down by the side of the road are the sort who don't do that, either because they can't be bothered or because they can't afford to.DaveinOlyWA said:
My first car was my dad's 12 year-old '65 Impala, which like all his cars he'd bought new. I knew exactly what its history was as Dad was the one who taught me to do all the scheduled maintenance and keep a vehicle log book showing all costs, as well as tricks to drive easily so as to make a car last; when I got my Datsun 2000 it went back into the family pool, and was ultimately only sold out of the family at 23 years and 240,000 miles without ever having the head off because we had too many cars in the driveway and my '88 Subie could do the trips I used to use the Impala for, while getting considerably better mileage and not requiring that I block the radiator off with cardboard for snow trips or need to wait 30 minutes for the heater core to warm up. Dad had a simple philosophy about options; anything not on the car didn't need to be paid for, couldn't break and would never need to be fixed or replaced, so unless it was considered essential it was left off. I've followed the same philosophy when spec'ing my cars (one reason I dislike expensive, often hard to use electronic/touchscreen infotainment systems that I'm forced to buy instead of simple analog gauges and manual switches that are intuitive to use without looking at them, and cheap and easy to fix/replace, and would be happy to buy a car with manual rather than power windows and doors).
I'm the same way with all durable goods and equipment; I'll willingly spend money up front to get equipment that really meets my needs and will last for decades rather than buy throw-away trash that has a bunch of neato gadgets, and will happily stick with what I have rather than replacing it with something marginally better; OTOH, I will upgrade if the new stuff gives me a major, desired increase in capability. With the exception of cars, though, I will buy used if I know the stuff is durable and in good condition. Thus, I commuted on a 30 year-old bike before it was stolen (actually, that was given to me), and bought a 20 year-old used one to replace it; I still use my 40 year-old external frame pack for trips that its well-suited for, cost to me when new, $33 in 1974 plus a little bit since for a patch and replacing a waist belt that had seen several thousand miles of use; still using a 22-year-old fanny pack that has gotten daily use, and I recently had the main zipper replaced (one of the pocket zippers needed replacing about a decade ago) - I suspect the pack will outlast me, given the minimal wear on its fabric; still using the first pair of X-C skis I ever bought (in 1980, they were then 3 years old) as my rock skis, and just retired a 30+ year old butane backpacking stove not because it no longer works but because my stock of proprietary and long discontinued fuel canisters for it has finally run out. The new one is generally better (haven't used it in really cold conditions yet so withholding judgment on that, although reviews are positive), lighter and uses non-proprietary canisters, so I expect I'll be using it for the rest of my outdoor life, however many more decades that may be.
My dive gear is a similar mix of high quality bought new or used gear. In short, do your research, buy high quality stuff and maintain it, and odds are good that it will last you decades. Of course, some people just thrash equipment and never maintain it, and for someone like that, it's not surprising that they only get short use out of it. And I realize that my philosophy flies in the face of the 'gotta have the latest gadget' types, an expensive and to my way of thinking ultimately futile pursuit of happiness. But then I've never been an Apple fanatic, and am still using a 7 year-old flip phone that lacks even a camera, after holding off on getting any cell phone until then. As it is, I rarely turn the thing on (original battery still going strong); the last thing I want is anyone to believe that I'm available to them at their convenience 24/7 - I have it for my convenience. I think the longest I had any computer was 12 years, and that was replaced because it died, not through any outstanding need to upgrade for added capability.
Dave, I've been driving for 37 years now and have been stranded precisely twice, once in about 1980 when the fuel pump on the Impala failed (or maybe it was just vapor lock, but a local guy had one that fit on a wreck in his yard, and got me on my way again in about an hour), and once around '92 (don't have its logbook handy) when the first timing belt broke on my '88 Subie (which I'd been warned needed to be changed within a couple of thousand miles; it went about 10 miles before my mechanic's prediction, and two days before my appointment).DaveinOlyWA said:
Other than that, modern cars are far more durable and reliable than those built 20+ years ago, especially when you buy them new so you know all the scheduled maintenance has been done and how they've been treated. I've also done my share of using and maintaining deep-cycle batteries, having sold them as essential parts of off-grid AE systems, so I'm well aware of what their needs are and how they can fail when mistreated or though bad cells. Although I lack extensive hands-on experience with Li-ion, I've certainly absorbed this group's experience with them as well as doing my own research, all of which leads me to conclude that while the specific details change, yup, they're still batteries and can fail for the same reasons.
Indeed, back in the earlier days of this site I was one of the people cautioning everyone that all batteries degrade and also lose capacity in cold and that heat would suck their range down, and they should base their calculations of whether a LEAF was suitable for them after taking those factors into account. You surely remember that those of us who gave these warnings were regularly accused by fan boys here of being anti-EV/trolls until the Phoenix batteries began dying like flies, and the first really cold conditions were experienced and many people found that their acceptable winter ranges with heat/defrost were often below 40 miles?
OTOH, you've bought at least three new cars just while I've been following this board since 8/2011, including a second LEAF to replace the one you bought just a few years ago. So you tell me, which of us is better able to predict the long-term viability and durability of our cars?
AndyH
Well-known member
Whoa, Nellie - that's uncharacteristically harsh... :shock:DaveinOlyWA said:
Umm...no. A 2-3 year maintenance cycle depends on the maintenance, the vehicle, the operating environment, and the degree of awareness the owner and/or maintainer has.DaveinOlyWA said:
Your advice is rife with undeclared assumptions. 5 years or 100,000 miles is normal for coolant, spark plugs, hoses, and other fluids. 60,000 miles is typical for timing belts. A premium synthetic engine oil with good filtration can run 1 year or 25,000 miles by default. Using a bypass filter and/or oil analysis can push that to 2 years (analysis) or 5+ years (analysis, regular filter changes/makeup oil).DaveinOlyWA said:
Most of my cars have been older. The last VW I owned was a '96 Passat TDI wagon that I bought with 230,000 miles on the odo that had been 'rode hard and put up wet'. After removing/cleaning/replacing the interior; fixing leaks; doing all the usual inspections/maintenance (brakes, fluids, hoses); and fixing a couple of wiring issues, I ran the car cross country from San Antonio to Duluth to Cape Cod to Florida to the Black Hills to Tucson over a five year period paying for nothing but fuel, oil changes, and tires. I finally retired the car with 430,000 miles on it. The IRS business mileage deductions paid my expenses about 4x over. The car never let me down - not one single time. Nor did the '97 Passat TDI sedan before it, or the '88 Jetta before that, or the '77 Rabbit before that, or the embarrassingly old Gremlin before that.
Cars - ICE or EV - are only ill-maintained death-traps for those that maintain them as such...
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
LTLFTcomposite said:
how many pegboards do you need for that gasser?
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1096012_nissan-leaf-electric-car-disembowled-displayed-on-pegboard-video" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
GRA said:
you are using your personal experience to comment on the viability of cars for others or did I get that wrong?
if I did, then my comments were not meant for you.
But generally, people don't drive their cars 5,000 miles a year or map out their maintenance years in advance. IOW; people d not exhibit the level of common sense you do. they need a much more "no brainer" solution.
now if we get back to reason I made my statement it is because you "seem" to claim that an old car is just as reliable as the day it was born and I said BS. I stand by that. you may have been driving 37 years without an unexpected breakdown but don't even tell me that is typical ok? cause i been driving longer than you and ya, its nice to have the money to take care of business and all that but let me assure you, you are the minority and a shrinking minority at that.
so again; I will ask you...no, actually I won't ask you because you have an answer for everything. But I still think that most people would rather have a car that tells them when they need to do something instead of something that simply decides one day to not go
as far as your "3 new cars" comment, you really need to elaborate on that one...
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
AndyH said:
his statement is a bald faced _ _ _. PERIOD. what person can truly believe a 12 year old car in ANY CONDITION is just as reliable as a new car?
and again, glad you have had great success with every car you have ever owned and yes it partly mechanical skills (which MOST of us do not have) following a maintenance plan which MOST of us don't do but should and still a lot of luck so you KNOW that any statement that involves XXX miles which is nearly all freeway is about as effective as someone driving 75,000 miles in their typical stop and go rush hour traffic commute right?
DanCar
Well-known member
You can be mean and read it as a lie. I read it, as how he feels about the car. Let people be subjective.DaveinOlyWA said:
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
DanCar said:
ok, i retract the word. what should I call it?
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