Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

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Are we talking 'today's plan for storage...' or 'today's answer to storage...'?

I confess I have not read every entry in this ongoing tennis match of a thread but I have heard of and seen no independent reports of any commercial H2 excess renewable energy storage facilities on any grid in the world.

If you have any links, I'd be interested to read about it.
 
donald said:
Are we talking 'today's plan for storage...' or 'today's answer to storage...'?

I confess I have not read every entry in this ongoing tennis match of a thread but I have heard of and seen no independent reports of any commercial H2 excess renewable energy storage facilities on any grid in the world.

If you have any links, I'd be interested to read about it.
Donald, welcome to the thread. This thread has been happening for about a year, and the important background info is in the first 20 or so pages. At least scanning the thread will bring you much more than it will me, as I've been here from the beginning and am boring the others to death by bringing things forward.


For the background of how H2 is being used TODAY for storage and how the infrastructure is being placed TODAY to support wide-scale roll-out of FCEV in 2015/2016, the first thing to do is to become familiar with Rifkin's Third Industrial Revolution. This is the plan that's been adopted by the entire EU and is in advanced deployment in Germany and Denmark. It's also being deployed in China, parts of central Asia, and has been adopted by the UN for the developing countries.

Audi Hydrogen as transportation fuel, and as a precursor to synthetic 'natural gas' for transportation. Also Rifkin and Daimler.
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=332980#p332980

Partial transcript from one of Rifkin's talks on the TIR plan and how it's being implemented in Germany, along with a link to the original talk.
The first video summarizes the 5 pillars of the TIR. The others show how the pieces fit together and how not deploying them together in Germany caused significant curtailment of renewable generation.
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=333790#p333790
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=333636#p333636
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=335266#p335266
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=335290#p335290


This is a talk by the CEO of one of the companies supplying wind-to-H2 equipment in Germany. He was formerly a lead engineer for Toyota Canada for the Prius, and former officer of a solar panel manufacturer. This gets directly into how wind to H2 works, and goes into the gory details of why it's better than pumped storage, CAES, and other methods in Europe. This doesn't mention TIR by name, but is about Pillar 3: storage and provides an essential input to Pillar 5: transportation.
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=335083#p335083


Since this is another summary post, here are the five pillars of TIR:

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=333790#p333790
And lest we think this is a lot of academic patter, Germany, since the Chancellor's come in:

Pillar 1: they're at 25% green electricity already and they're heading to 35% by 2020.

Pillar 2: Germany's converted one million buildings in the last seven years - they're producing small amounts of [excess] green electricity and a third of a million net jobs. They've just begun. Denmark's doing just as well. So when people say: "It can't be done" it can be done. And when people say: "Well, show me!" let's take the number one economic power per capita in the world Germany and you'll see it being done right there - at near zero marginal cost for energy.

Pillar 3: Storage. The sun's not always shining...the wind blows at night and you've got to have the electricity during the day... The water tables can be down for hydroelectricity due to climate change drought... These are intermittent energies and we've got to store them. We at the EU level are in favor of ALL storage: batteries, flywheels, capacitors, air compression, water pumping, we like them all! But I must say we put most of our focus at the center of all these storage networks on hydrogen [using electrolysis and fuel cells]. Engineers, this is a tiny thermodynamic loss compared to bringing oil, coal, gas, and uranium every step of conversion and loss to the end user.

Pillar 4 - this is where the internet revolution combines with the new distributed renewable energies to create a nervous system for the new general purpose technology platform. We're using off the shelf internet technology and IT technology and we're transforming the power grid in Europe into an energy internet - a distributed smart grid. If you hear political and business leaders saying: "Oh, we like that smart grid" ask them what kind - centralized or distributed? Centralized means they put an advanced meter on your home and you get all the information only going to them at headquarters and it's all proprietary. That has nothing to do with this. This is an energy internet - a distributed smart grid. It'll connect everything to everything so that when millions of buildings are producing just small amounts of electricity and storing it as hydrogen... Then if you don't need some of that green electricity during the day or week or month, you can program your software right there with your own killer app from home and send that green electricity across an energy internet that in our case extends from the Irish Sea to the doorstep of Russia. Just like we create information, store it in digital, and share it on-line. Deutsche Telekom has tested successfully the smart grid across Germany. Storage is now in with E.ON and Hydrogenics as well - they're just putting it on-line.

Pillar 5 - logistics. Electric vehicles are here; fuel cell cars, trucks, and buses between 2015 and 2017 by the six major auto companies - this is a done deal - these are fuel cell vehicles. We'll be able to plug-in our vehicles anywhere, wherever we park across the country there'll will be a parking [spot] plug right there...plug it back into the main grid which is distributed and get green electricity. Let's say you're at work - keep that computer on. So if that electricity price goes up on the grid the computer will tell your car to send your electricity back to the grid. We're already beginning to do that in Europe [on a small scale].

These five pillars are nothing - they're components. It's only when we connect them that we have what we call the general purpose technology platform. It's an infrastructure technology platform. Do not make the mistake that President Obama made...he got bad advice. He wanted a green economy, he still wants a green economy, he spent billions and billions of dollars of tax money for a green economy - it isn't here. Because he spent it on isolated, siloed, pilot projects. So they'd invest in a solar factory in one state, an electric car factory in another state - unconnected! This is an infrastructure revolution.

Editorial comment: Please folks, for the Love of God - please at least read the above summary of the TIR. PLEASE note that Rifkin and the rest of the bloody world are doing massive Snoopy Dancing that BEVs are HERE TO STAY. And Yes, IN ADDITION they're integrating FCEV into the mix because they provide ADDITIONAL benfits and because the ENTIRE SYSTEM is much MORE EFFICIENT than any other system invented so far. TIR is the CONTEXT - hydrogen is just one of the components of coffee in the cup. Nobody is going to remove BEV from the mix because the SYSTEM cannot stand without them! It needs BOTH. It's built around BOTH.

Now, I realize many of you are in California and have this love/hate relationship with CARB. That's fine. Some CA cities are working towards TIR - that's mentioned in a number of Rifkin's talks and in the question and answer sessions sometimes included. But - and this is an ego hit but is true nonetheless - This is one transportation revolution that neither CA nor CARB are orchestrating. They, like the rest of the USA, have already missed the first sailing. The official FCEV roll-out isn't 'supposed' to be until 2015/2016 - so stop complaining about the 100 Hyundai's in California. Hyundai is ramping up to 100,000 Tucson's per year - and they've shipped many more Tucson/IX35 to Europe and Korea that we'll see in the USA for a number of years. Again - that's not because FCEV is bad or because it's too expensive - it's because we failed to keep up with the rest of the developed world. Again. Welcome to the end of the empire, already in progress..... /rant
 
AndyH said:
AndyH said:
I did notice, however, that in spite of the availability of numbers for similarly-performing vehicles, you chose to compare the price of a FCEV with greater than Model S range with the battery price of a Leaf. Do you think that's a reasonable comparison
ydnas7 said:
the Hyundai has same EPA range as single motored S-85, what EPA ranges the dual motor Tesla have is still to be shown.
AndyH said:
Yet the Hyundai drove more than 400 miles in real traffic in California. Hmmm...
GRA said:
Andy, I think you're thinking of the Toyota FCHV-ADV rather than the Tucson:

"The maximum range of the FCHV-ADV vehicles was calculated to be 431 miles under these driving conditions. This distance was calculated from the actual range of 331.5 miles during over 11 hours of driving, plus 99.5 miles of additional range calculated from the average fuel economy from the day times the remaining usable hydrogen."

<snip>

I'm remembering these, Guy:

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=333615#p333615
Oct 24, 2013
AndyH said:
Hyundai Tucson FCEV development and fuel economy

http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/htac_may2012_hyundai.pdf

2008 drive from San Francisco to LA using a 2nd gen system
- 396 miles traveled
- 6.65 kg H2 consumed
- 60.7 mpg (gasoline equivalent)
- 471 mile est max range

2012 Tucson iX FCEV
- 100 kW fuel cell
- 34 kW battery
- 100 kW AC induction motor
- 73 mpg gas equivalent
- 406 mile range

Think of these as BEVs with a fuel cell range extender. These will take market share from GM and others' petro cars, not from BEVs - especially since the price of BEV city cars will fall much faster than FCEVs will, if for no other reason than the BEV's head start.
Oh, okay, the current gen. has shrunk the tank for the production vehicle, as the Hyundai website shows 5.64 kg. Hard to see how they get from that kind of range to the maximum of 265 they now quote if they had the previous gen's 7.92 kg. tankage (or the 7.76 kg ca./98% they say they actually put in before doing the drive, or the 6.65 kg they used over 396 miles) unless the EPA 5-cycle test really underrates an FCHV's highway mileage. That difference would far exceed the 'penalty' a diesel gets on the EPA highway mileage rating (understating their real-world Hwy mileage). I do note that the paper you linked shows the 2010 stack as only about 1.6kW/l, so if that's what's in the car now they can gain a lot of space once they upgrade to a current stack in the 3.0kW/l range, like Toyota/Honda are using for their cars.
 
GRA said:
Oh, okay, the current gen. has shrunk the tank for the production vehicle, as the Hyundai website shows 5.64 kg. Hard to see how they get from that kind of range to the maximum of 265 they now quote if they had the previous gen's 7.92 kg. tankage (or the 7.76 kg ca./98% they say they actually put in before doing the drive, or the 6.65 kg they used over 396 miles) unless the EPA 5-cycle test really underrates an FCHV's highway mileage. That difference would far exceed the 'penalty' a diesel gets on the EPA highway mileage rating (understating their real-world Hwy mileage). I do note that the paper you linked shows the 2010 stack as only about 1.6kW/l, so if that's what's in the car now they can gain a lot of space once they upgrade to a current stack in the 3.0kW/l range, like Toyota/Honda are using for their cars.
Thanks Guy. I wanted to dig through the numbers again to find out how the current Tucson had lost range, but hadn't yet. Thanks very much!

Also - thanks for your comments over the years. Since I no longer needed my truck, it's been gone a month. It feels very strange to not own an ICE as I've owned a car, truck, or motorcycle since 1981. I thought it would be stressful but even in this 'driving required' corner of the 'fossil fuel is king' world, I don't even use the BEV motorcycle much - the bicycle is all I need. And it's a much more efficient use of electricity than even charging the BEV. :lol:
 
donald said:
TonyWilliams said:
My top 10:

<snip>
2) H2 is not an 'energy source'
It's only ever been described as 'an energy vector' by anyone serious.
We use the term 'energy carrier', but tomayto/tomahto.

donald said:
TonyWilliams said:
3) H2 will ALWAYS cost more to produce than just electrical power. ALWAYS.
With current technologies, however evolved, maybe. But there has been no need to implement industrial scale thermolysis, which would be more efficient because you're missing out on the thermal-to-electric stage of the energy flow. I think high temperature catalysed thermolysis would be more efficient in terms of delivering MJ-equivalent, but not necessarily more MJ of electricity once the H2 has gone through a FC. It could be a tight thing when you factor in all the network losses of getting leccy from one place to the other, rather than piping H2 around.
Indeed, there's a lot of research going into thermocatalytic production as well as photochemical production of H2, either of which has the potential to seriously reduce or possibly even eliminate the efficiency advantage of electricity. I don't bother to link most of them here as they're still in the lab stage, but anyone who's interested can search the 'Hydrogen', 'fuel cell' and 'bio-hydrogen' topics at Green Car Congress to find the reports, along with all the reports on work to continue reducing or completely replacing platinum with cheaper catalyst materials. The 'Hydrogen Storage' topic may also be of interest.
 
AndyH said:
GRA said:
Oh, okay, the current gen. has shrunk the tank for the production vehicle, as the Hyundai website shows 5.64 kg. Hard to see how they get from that kind of range to the maximum of 265 they now quote if they had the previous gen's 7.92 kg. tankage (or the 7.76 kg ca./98% they say they actually put in before doing the drive, or the 6.65 kg they used over 396 miles) unless the EPA 5-cycle test really underrates an FCHV's highway mileage. That difference would far exceed the 'penalty' a diesel gets on the EPA highway mileage rating (understating their real-world Hwy mileage). I do note that the paper you linked shows the 2010 stack as only about 1.6kW/l, so if that's what's in the car now they can gain a lot of space once they upgrade to a current stack in the 3.0kW/l range, like Toyota/Honda are using for their cars.
Thanks Guy. I wanted to dig through the numbers again to find out how the current Tucson had lost range, but hadn't yet. Thanks very much!
I was curious too, but was too lazy to do it until your post prodded me!

AndyH said:
Also - thanks for your comments over the years. Since I no longer needed my truck, it's been gone a month. It feels very strange to not own an ICE as I've owned a car, truck, or motorcycle since 1981. I thought it would be stressful but even in this 'driving required' corner of the 'fossil fuel is king' world, I don't even use the BEV motorcycle much - the bicycle is all I need. And it's a much more efficient use of electricity than even charging the BEV. :lol:
Going on 15 years now with all my local trips by foot/bike/transit, but still use the ICE car for 2-3,000 miles a year (mainly on trips, even though I've been really conscientious the last couple of years about not using it locally just because it's convenient). Despite the frequent and often contentious disagreements in this and other topics, we're all just trying to get to the future the best way we can in a way that works for us.
 
TonyWilliams said:
7) H2 "extended range" hybrid cars that use EV batteries for 20-100 miles is a wonderful near term solution at an unrealistic price. Singularly, either H2 or EV is expensive... together, they are a non-starter without HUGE government handouts and industry support

Hmmmm... I still don't agree with your math in regards to dollars. Yes H2 is terribly inefficient and I agree with all the other points.
But the biggest expense with batteries (on the most part) is energy, not power.
The biggest expense with fuel cells is absolutely power.. Energy has a very low cost (unless you value trunk space).
Aside from the obvious goals of long distance travel and convenient home refueling, a combination of the two technologies could be cheaper than (or at least on par with) a pure H2 FC system or a pure BEV solution (with 300 miles range).

I don't know the going rate for fuel cells in terms of $/kW but I would imagine cutting the fuel cell stack from 80-100kW down to 12-20kW would save a lot... enough to pay for an extra 10-20kWh of batteries? It's gotta be close. And it would certainly make a more practical vehicle.
 
GregH said:
I don't know the going rate for fuel cells in terms of $/kW but I would imagine cutting the fuel cell stack from 80-100kW down to 12-20kW would save a lot... enough to pay for an extra 10-20kWh of batteries? It's gotta be close. And it would certainly make a more practical vehicle.
Greg - I think you nailed the type of calcs the auto industry's doing right now. Today, fuel cells and tanks have a higher energy density per volume than lithium cells, but they're more expensive for the same amount of power (not necessarily range). So today, if 80 miles of unrecharged/unrefueled range will do the job, a BEV should win for a commuter car.

As we've already seen earlier in the thread, batteries are well down on the price/performance curve - about 94% of the price has already been wrung out of them - but fuel cells are still well up with about 80% of costs to be engineered out before they 'catch up' with batteries on the price/performance chart. Industry expects fuel cell prices to drop very quickly - and they already have dropped more in the past five years than they have in the past 15.

If we have today's tech, and prices for batteries and fuel cells change as expected, the near-future car will probably be closer to the vehicles being deployed today - primarily fuel cell with a small battery for regen and acceleration - as that'll very likely have the lowest sticker price.

Everything can change quickly if any of the parameters change. And for the sake of the "give me batteries or give me death" crowd, we'd better not see a "Mr Fusion" anytime soon. :lol:
 
AndyH said:
Donald, welcome to the thread.
I've been here before...... rather more towards a cautionary support of FCEVs than agin'.

That's not the point, and you missed the actual question. You responded as if to say H2 energy storage already exists:- "H2 storage IS in the lead".

Does it exist, or were you misleading to imply that? Examples of installations, please.
 
GregH said:
Aside from the obvious goals of long distance travel and convenient home refueling, a combination of the two technologies could be cheaper than (or at least on par with) a pure H2 FC system or a pure BEV solution (with 300 miles range).

I don't know the going rate for fuel cells in terms of $/kW but I would imagine cutting the fuel cell stack from 80-100kW down to 12-20kW would save a lot... enough to pay for an extra 10-20kWh of batteries? It's gotta be close. And it would certainly make a more practical vehicle.

At best, I don't see wide scale H2 adoption in the USA for a generation, at best. It would take a project on par with the Interstate Highway program or the Apollo space program to get the required 10,000 to 100,000 H2 stations at $2 million-ish a pop, plus another $1 million per year to operate. That's not even on the drawing board.

For the next 5-ish years, we will get about 50-100 H2 stations in California and a couple dozen in the east coast CARB states. That's also where ALL the cars will go... all several hundred to several thousand of them. Low production cars of any type are expensive, and H2 cars take the prize.

Therein lies that singular biggest issue. Cost, Cost, Cost. That alone can fail ANY project.

So, that brings me to where we will be in the USA / Canada... Western Hemisphere... in 5 years. The answer for most folks on this forum is likely hundreds of thousands of EV's in all 50 states (we are about there now).

Since they have to plan production for the future, how small do we have to make H2 cells to be competitive in a hybrid EV plug-in / H2 extender? I don't know, but let's figure out that for 5 years from now with $100-$150 kWh batteries...

Discuss.
 
donald said:
AndyH said:
Donald, welcome to the thread.
I've been here before...... rather more towards a cautionary support of FCEVs than agin'.

That's not the point, and you missed the actual question. You responded as if to say H2 energy storage already exists:- "H2 storage IS in the lead".

Does it exist, or were you misleading to imply that? Examples of installations, please.
Donald, you're staying on the troll/ignore list. I've already answered your question twice - one in the post immediately following your 'first' question, and then in the response! I brought the info to you but I cannot make you read it.

Will someone else please help Donald?
 
TonyWilliams said:
GregH said:
Aside from the obvious goals of long distance travel and convenient home refueling, a combination of the two technologies could be cheaper than (or at least on par with) a pure H2 FC system or a pure BEV solution (with 300 miles range).

I don't know the going rate for fuel cells in terms of $/kW but I would imagine cutting the fuel cell stack from 80-100kW down to 12-20kW would save a lot... enough to pay for an extra 10-20kWh of batteries? It's gotta be close. And it would certainly make a more practical vehicle.

At best, I don't see wide scale H2 adoption in the USA for a generation, at best. It would take a project on par with the Interstate Highway program or the Apollo space program to get the required 10,000 to 100,000 H2 stations at $2 million-ish a pop, plus another $1 million per year to operate. That's not even on the drawing board.

For the next 5-ish years, we will get about 50-100 H2 stations in California and a couple dozen in the east coast CARB states. That's also where ALL the cars will go... all several hundred to several thousand of them. Low production cars of any type are expensive, and H2 cars take the prize.

Therein lies that singular biggest issue. Cost, Cost, Cost. That alone can fail ANY project.

So, that brings me to where we will be in the USA / Canada... Western Hemisphere... in 5 years. The answer for most folks on this forum is likely hundreds of thousands of EV's in all 50 states (we are about there now).

Since they have to plan production for the future, how small do we have to make H2 cells to be competitive in a hybrid EV plug-in / H2 extender? I don't know, but let's figure out that for 5 years from now with $100-$150 kWh batteries...

Discuss.

I agree viability is a long way off for fuel cells.

I wonder if we will EVER have more H2 stations nationally than Tesla Superchargers?

I just think adding batteries is a good thing (up to a point) because they're much more efficient and I'm personally a fan of home refueling.

But to get to really long range (300+ miles) you gotta admit making the tank slightly larger is certainly cheaper than adding more batteries.

Where is that optimum point between batteries and fuel cell stack size? I don't know.. 30kWh battery + 20kW fuel cell? 10kWh battery + 50kW fuel cell?

But... if we consider future energy will be at a premium (barring Mr. Fusion) then it would be foolish not to drive as many miles as possible on batteries.

Toyota and Honda don't want to face truth about how inefficient H2 fuel cells are so they'll likely keep pushing non-plug in FCEVs...
Add a plug to a gasoline hybrid and it's more efficient. They don't want to admit that's true for a FCEV as well.
 
AndyH said:
Donald, you're staying on the troll/ignore list.
Telling me to go look at several hours of youtube videos isn't an answer to 'where is there a functioning commercial system'. The question's pretty simple.

If my declining the invitation to waste several hours to pour over material is 'trolling', then it is a very strange forum that proposes putting such material forward isn't.

Just tell me where? Jeez. It's a simple, straightforward question, honestly put forward as a point of interest. I don't believe there are any because I haven't seen any, and no-one's saying where they are.

It sounds a bit like you telling me Jesus lives, and I say 'what's his address' and you tell me 'go read the Bible, that will tell you'.
 
ydnas7 said:
quick sanity check

per mile stored, cathode carbon and pressure vessel carbon is about the same cost, but cathode carbon has better cost reductions due to opportunity to blend with Si etc.

Toyota states the Mirai's tanks excluding valving weigh 87.5kg
remove 8kg for liners, leaves about 80kg for tank, remove 5kgs for dome protection leaves 75kg for tank
80% of 75kg is 60kg of carbon fibre. for about 5kg of h2 storage or 300mile nominal range.

60kg of graphite at 330mAh/g = 19,800,000mAh
20,000,000mAh at 3.8V = 76kWh
which at Mirai/LEAF type efficiency is about 260 mile range.

so unless the Platinum H2 fuel cell stack is cheaper than the li ion battery cathode, then its really really difficult for h2 fuel cell vehicle to be cheaper than Li ion for vehicles.
There is a fundamental reason why the Hyundai Tucson H2 fuel cell vehicle costs more than a Tesla of similar range.

(i use the term cathode carbon because anode carbon generally means something different to li ion battery usage, perhaps "intercalation carbon" would be more concise)
 
Donald, I dunno if this is "the answer" or "an answer", but it's one place I arrived at from one of the speakers (an employee of ETOGAS now working for Audi) in one of the videos.

Audi opens 6MW power-to-gas facility

It's from last year/2013 and although they do produce hydrogen, they quickly combine it with CO2(!) to turn it into methanol, which they can store in natural gas lines and/or fuel 1500 Audi CNG vehicles. I have a hunch it hasn't been that successful though, let alone replicated. Their (ETOGAS') site only consists of 1 page!

(Edit:) This much more recent NYTimes article gives a broad overview of the energy-storage conundrum and its current 'state of play'. It mentions the Audi test plant, but also says more money is being put into compressed air, and reports that the best bet in the long run could be in... wait for it ;-) ... batteries.

Energy for a Rainy Day, or a Windless One (New York Times, October 8, 2014)

donald said:
AndyH said:
Donald, you're staying on the troll/ignore list.
Telling me to go look at several hours of youtube videos isn't an answer to 'where is there a functioning commercial system'. The question's pretty simple.

If my declining the invitation to waste several hours to pour over material is 'trolling', then it is a very strange forum that proposes putting such material forward isn't.

Just tell me where? Jeez. It's a simple, straightforward question, honestly put forward as a point of interest. I don't believe there are any because I haven't seen any, and no-one's saying where they are.

It sounds a bit like you telling me Jesus lives, and I say 'what's his address' and you tell me 'go read the Bible, that will tell you'.
 
donald said:
It sounds a bit like you telling me Jesus lives, and I say 'what's his address' and you tell me 'go read the Bible, that will tell you'.

For our special friend Andy and his H2 beliefs, the religion overtone of your analogy is all too perfect.

Whatever the issues are, there's a book that will explain it all away... metaphorically, of course.
 
GregH said:
I agree viability is a long way off for fuel cells.

I wonder if we will EVER have more H2 stations nationally than Tesla Superchargers?


The very minute that an H2 station that can refuel 8 cars at once that only costs $250,000 total (versus millions for an H2 station), requires no security, no million dollar per year upkeep, no onsite person whatsoever, and no neighbors yelling "NIMBY", no environmental impact studies, et al, etc, ad nauseum, then Superchargers will always outnumber H2 dispensing stations. ALWAYS.

The fact that many multiples of additional electricity is required of H2 to provide the same mile of travel is another major issue.


But to get to really long range (300+ miles) you gotta admit making the tank slightly larger is certainly cheaper than adding more batteries.


Yes, if a cheap tank were the only issue. It's a tank... like virtually any other tank made of carbon to hold H2 at 10,000psi. I suppose it has to have some additional structure to withstand some crash worthiness, and "special sauce" to hold in the H2 (those tiny molecules don't like confinement). But, it's still the cheap part of the equation.

A really large tank with a cheaper, smaller H2 "generator" and a smallish battery still gives me a short range and marginal performance on 25kW (like the current BMW i3 with 650cc motorcycle engine).


But... if we consider future energy will be at a premium (barring Mr. Fusion) then it would be foolish not to drive as many miles as possible on batteries.


It doesn't take a bunch of accounting to figure out that just using batteries and Superchargers is cheaper, by far. Since batteries will likely fall to $100-$150 per kWh in 5 years, H2 never gets off the ground without continued favoritism from CARB, other governments, etc.


Toyota and Honda don't want to face truth about how inefficient H2 fuel cells are so they'll likely keep pushing non-plug in FCEVs...
Add a plug to a gasoline hybrid and it's more efficient. They don't want to admit that's true for a FCEV as well.


I believe that "they" really believe it can work... like the Prius. That's the analogy heard over and over from them.
 
"I'm sorry, is the the five minute argument, or the full half hour?" (MPFC)

Such a long and interesting thread.

So, FCEVs are coming, and H2 infrastructure will expand, on whatever scale. So what?

When my current lease is up in 2017, I'm hoping for a 200 mile BEV with Supercharger access, or as close to that as I can get in the $35k range.

How long until there's a FCEV around $35k?
 
TonyWilliams said:
GregH said:
But to get to really long range (300+ miles) you gotta admit making the tank slightly larger is certainly cheaper than adding more batteries.

Yes, if a cheap tank were the only issue. It's a tank... like virtually any other tank made of carbon to hold H2 at 10,000psi. I suppose it has to have some additional structure to withstand some crash worthiness, and "special sauce" to hold in the H2 (those tiny molecules don't like confinement). But, it's still the cheap part of the equation.

A really large tank with a cheaper, smaller H2 "generator" and a smallish battery still gives me a short range and marginal performance on 25kW (like the current BMW i3 with 650cc motorcycle engine).

But... if we consider future energy will be at a premium (barring Mr. Fusion) then it would be foolish not to drive as many miles as possible on batteries.

It doesn't take a bunch of accounting to figure out that just using batteries and Superchargers is cheaper, by far. Since batteries will likely fall to $100-$150 per kWh in 5 years, H2 never gets off the ground without continued favoritism from CARB, other governments, etc.

I think this is the only point on which we differ... Having drunk the battery cool-aid over 15 years ago you won't find any argument from me that batteries aren't a better solution...

But... As an engineer I have a hard time wrapping my head around the "last 1 percent" diminishing returns problem with BEVs. All of us Leaf drivers (or GEN1 EV1 for that matter) know that 60-80 miles of range can cover most of our needs. Now with ubiquitous 25-50kW quick charging (in California at least) it's even better. But there are still many days when we'd really like to have more like 100-120+ miles of range and even with quick charging, a 70 mile BEV ain't gonna cut it for long distance travel. So the issue comes down to this: If you're going to make a ZEV capable of going 300 miles, is it cheaper to add batteries or a small FC and an H2 tank? A hydrogen station with two pumps can feed as many miles/hour of juice as a Tesla Supercharger with 8 connections... if not more. Maybe I'm just trying too hard to bridge the gap between my Leaf and a 300 mile ZEV, but I really don't want to lug 85+kWh of batteries around with me everywhere I go.... It just strikes me as terribly wasteful. At the end of the day >I< would be perfectly happy with a 120mile BEV with quick charging.. but I'm not the demographic Toyota and Honda are shooting for.
 
- GregH -

"Where is that optimum point between batteries and fuel cell stack size? I don't know.. 30kWh battery + 20kW fuel cell? 10kWh battery + 50kW fuel cell?"

Yes, that's the key to the FC's success. Obviously the 'mix' will change as the overall cost structure of using
FCs decreases over time. Maybe in the near term a small FC could extend the present sub 100 mile ranges to
the sub 200 mile range. Having that intermediate range requires less dependence on a broad H2 infrastructure.
That approach also reduces the weight issue when extending the range just by adding more batteries,
which then offsets the less energy efficiency of the FC. Still having the plug-in charging capability
eliminates the need to be fully dependent on a H2 infrastructure, i.e. if the FC is non-fucnctional
the vehicle operates as a typical BEV. Obviously that approach using the FC will not have the adequate
power for very low battery conditions to power the vehicle.
 
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