Is it a bad time to buy a leaf?

So, I am pretty confident a leaf is a perfect 2nd car for my family, and our older car is in need of replacement. I have held off since January as I read that more 2013's will start coming off lease. Sure enough, this appears to be the case. Additionally, in my so-called forward thinking province of BC who were the first locale to discontinue clean vehicle rebates, have returned with a meager $3250 rebate if buying a BEV and scrapping a my2000 or older vehicle. This would work for us.

However, the new Volt has been teased, the bolt unveiled, the Tesla3 looming closer, other BEV's coming online and a plethora of pent up energy waiting for the leaf2 announcement.

It seems it is a good time for my family to go EV, however used prices are insanely high in Canadian dollars and the leaf market and depreciation could be poised to plunge in the next year.

What does one do? Any thoughts?

Leasing is probably your best choice to stay current. That being said, if you want a used LEAF and it suits your needs (think: your drives are <65km a trip, taking into account the cold weather), it's not magically going to NOT suit your needs when the 320km+ range vehicles show up.

That's how I thought about it when I purchased my LEAF. My drive on my previous job was 30km round-trip from my current house and 40km round-trip from our new house. Even better, I now work from home so the LEAF is used for around-town trips only. Even when the Bolt and Model 3 come out, my LEAF will still suit my needs.

I had a 2011 and a 2013 and both depreciated significantly. Used Leafs in the Us are quite the bargain. I just bought a 2015, but it will clearly have a significant depreciation hit when the second generation comes out. If you are sure you will keep the car for a long time depreciation is not something to be particularly concerned about. I don't know about prices in Canada, but I got a significant discount and a rebate here in Washington State.

As mentioned above, used Leafs can be had relatively cheaply on this side of the border. Have you considered importing a US model? AFAIK the only thing you'd have to add are DRL's (and there are many add-on kits available, no need to hack the electrical system to make the high beams come on full time). A menu setting switches the speedo and other displays to metric.

I think it's a great time to buy a used Leaf, especially as a second car that doesn't have to have the range you'd need for your primary vehicle. I agree that shopping in Washington or Oregon is a great idea... I live just south of the border and play hockey up in BC quite a bit, am very impressed with how many charging stations are available, and free - sweet!
Happy shopping... let us know what you decide!

I think it's a bad time to lease a new Leaf. Like you said, there are a lot of things coming out in the next 12-18 months, and with used Leaf values in the toilet, that's the way to go if you want to maintain flexibility.

As prices drop, I think now's a great time to buy a used Leaf, as long as you know what you are getting.
(Watch out for battery health if getting a Leaf from a hot climate area, etc..)
I also think it's not a bad time to Lease..
Mostly because I think the 200 mile cars are at least 2 years out (IMHO) and that will be the first round of that technology.
I like 2nd years for new tech in cars (i.e. I got the 2012 over the 2011 as I think they probably cleaned up a few things..).
So for me, I will be looking for probably the year after the 200 mile cars are released.
That's (again, IMHO) 17/18 timeframe.

That's one of the reasons I got my 2012 a bit ago. That will be 4 years in to paying him off.
So I won't owe much on him by then and will be ready for the "new models."

I'd be more cautious about buying a new Leaf now. That said, if you can get the deal you want and it will work for your range.. No point in waiting.. ;-)

desiv

vwDavid said:

So, I am pretty confident a leaf is a perfect 2nd car for my family...

However, the new Volt has been teased, the bolt unveiled, the Tesla3 looming closer, other BEV's coming online and a plethora of pent up energy waiting for the leaf2 announcement....

Click to expand...

If you feel the LEAF is perfect for you and cost is a concern, not sure why the new Volt is an issue; Volt is more expensive than LEAF. Since you say LEAF is perfect, I assume the VOLT's gasoline range is not a significant issue for you.

As for the rest - simple. They are non-existent. Bolt is a press release; 2 years out at best, likely longer before real quantities are available IF it materializes. Likewise for Tesla3. Not that I doubt Tesla's vision but keep in mind that Model X debuted in Feb 2012. If we're lucky we'll get ours late this year; more likely early 2016. LEAF2, date and capability still unknown. I thought maybe when my 2012 lease expired it would be here. Sorry, no. So I leased a 2015 for 3 years. By 2018 some of these dreams may be reality.

A 2 or 3 year lease on the current LEAF protects you from any depreciation worries and will land you closer to all of these promised vehicles than you are today and puts you in an EV that you say is perfect 2nd car for you. Enjoy and don't engage in too much hand-wringing about obsolescence. Something better will surely come along, but in the meantime enjoy what's available now. Bird in the hand, imho.

There's a lot of irrationality in these discussions. What matters is what you use a car for as that second car. People will whine with varying degrees of realism about terrible winter range or how much further the Tesla will go or whatever, but what does that matter to YOU? My fun car is a Mustang GT convertible with an auto. The hard top is cheaper and handles better at the bleeding edge. The manual is both cheaper and slightly faster with a very skilled driver. But I don't drive on tracks, don't give a crap about a couple of grand on a 10 year purchase and like having the top down. It's only a poor decision to somebody who is stretching to make payments and watches too many Vin Diesel movies.

Likewise my main commuter is a 14 Leaf SV that I bought after leasing a 12. I don't need to go more than 30 odd miles a day more than a handful of times a year, and when I do the best Tesla would run out of range twice in my road trip days so no EV makes a lick more sense than the Leaf for those 750 mile days. After discounts and rebates I paid about $21k for a near silent, comfortable, almost maintenance free car with navigation, heated seats and wheel, Bose stereo, around view cameras and remote preheating that costs me 3c a mile to run on a commute that, like most people's, would not be fun in a Ferrari given traffic and road conditions. Given typical projected degradation (and my 12 cetainly has some so no Pollyanna here) it will be about 9-10 yrs before I even have to give the slightest thought to range even with full heat and sub-zero temps, at which point $5500 or so NPV buys me another decade. Buying it means I don't have to worry about the eventual return or panic over every mile or tread mm or door ding.

If you are anything like in that situation, a Leaf is a great fit. If you have one of these insane 60 mile conurbation commutes (why do people do that? No matter how perfect your home site how long are you actually there 5 days a week if you have to drive 90+ minutes each way?) then it's nuts. Only you can decide, but be realistic about what YOU need.

EvansvilleLeaf said:

If you have one of these insane 60 mile conurbation commutes (why do people do that? No matter how perfect your home site how long are you actually there 5 days a week if you have to drive 90+ minutes each way?) then it's nuts.

Click to expand...

Agree with almost everything you said..
Except my commute is 60 miles each way.
Why?
Work in Salem, OR.
Live in Lincoln City, ocean view/sounds/lifestyle...
There's pleny of time I get to spend there to make it worth it..
And my wife (retired) spends more time there.

As for "nuts?" Probably. When I get home and head to the deck with my soda to watch the sunset over the ocean with my wife... I'm fine with that.. ;-)

But everyone's situation and tolerance is different..
I grew up in Los Angeles, so 1+ hour commutes are not a biggie for me... And this is a nice drive..

desiv
(p.s. Other car is a Subaru (I think in Oregon, you're legally required to own a Subaru) for longer drives/weather.)

To me it's a good time to lease not buy - yet. Let the first "next-gen" BEVs get the kinks worked out over the next few years. When you come off lease re-evaluate the market.

I just bought my 2011 Leaf on the last day of Feb this year. I bid on some on ebay, looked at a couple at dealers, and viewed them generally over the internet including Craigslist. I had been thinking about building an electric car for some time now but hadn't found the time. With the price and condition of this vehicle that I bought, I couldn't build one cheaper. Buy one at the right price, you can afford to change out the battery in it's future for a bigger, better one. Mine is an SL, has 29,000 miles on it, and is 2 bars down. Car was originally out of California but was listed on Craigslist with a Scottsdale Arizona Dealer. I paid $10,500 plus tax etc. From what I have read, the cost of a new battery including install and trade-in, is $6000ish. I saw a 2011 Leaf SLe with a new (supposedly better) battery, for sale at $15,000. My feeling is that the vehicle will always be worth, what the battery pack is worth at a minimum, plus the carriage value. People will start putting new batteries in these cars including longer range, cooled/heated systems with better chemistry etc. and no matter what will keep these vehicles viable and not let them bottom value because of innovations in the future. So...my advice is buy now at the right price, use up it's onboard fuel till range is unacceptable, then get new fuel when new battery packs ranges and prices have improved! Auxiliary (aluminum-air) batteries for one example, also look very promising for for extended range in the future. Good luck!

I would say it would depend on the model you are buying. I'd suggest leasing over buying, especially if you are planning on driving less than 12K miles, of which there are some deals out there.

As far as buying goes, it depends on where you live and what model you buy. We purchased our 2015 S w/QC package at an incredible deal. $3500 Nissan Rebate, additional $2600 discount, $2500 State Rebate, $7500 tax credit. With all those incentives, the car wound up costing about $17,000 or so. Figure that you'll save $1200-$1700/year in gas costs depending on miles driven and fuel prices, and you wind up needing to sell the car for about $12500 in a few years to break even on the deal. The leaf will likely take a major resale hit when 200 mile + EVs hit the road in a couple years, but I can't imagine that they will sell much less than $10K in even the most deflated circumstances. With a replacement battery currently costing $6000 installed, and that price may drop or pack may increase in range by the time you need one, I'd say that purchasing isn't that big of a gamble. The 2015 batteries has so far been doing very well and I'd say you'll get about 4-5 years out of them until the degredation really starts to impact your driving. Obviously if you buy an SV or SL, you take a bigger risk that the added feature sets may not retain the same value over time.

In the US - hands down I'd say lease.

But, considering you are in BC - I don't know how the lease rates look like. It might be better to drive down to Seattle and get a used Leaf. May be in 3 to 5 years, you can do the same again for Leaf 2 / Bolt or Model 3.