Another "Is it right for me" thread

Well, I'm sure this has been asked to death, but I'm gonna do it again anyways. Pricing and financing on the Leaf seems very attractive right now, and I'm considering replacing my current vehicle. There are two main things that appeal to me about the Leaf: saving some money on gas (and maintenance) and the 'cool' factor associated with an EV. I'm a car guy, an engineer, and a bit of a nerd at heart. I have three cars right now, my current work car, a 1998 Lincoln Mark VIII (20-21 mpg), my wife's 2008 Kia Sedona (18-20 mpg), and my weekend cruiser, a 1973 Cadillac Eldorado (don't ask). As you can see, fuel efficiency is not a strong suit of my current fleet.

Currently I drive 45 miles round trip to work each day, mostly in a straight line, without any hills and very few turns, 5 days a week. There may be opportunity to charge at work, but there's no guarantee, and I'm not planning on it right now. I don't currently use my work car for much else, but were I to purchase a Leaf, I probably would try to use it for more trips around home as well.

My concern is the same as everybody else's, range anxiety. Obviously when new, in warmer weather it shouldn't be a problem, I'm more concerned with a few years down the road, particularly if we have another brutal winter like we did this year with whole weeks where the temp didn't rise out of the single digits. In truth, in those cases, it wouldn't be a problem to just switch cars with my wife for a day or week, but I'd rather not have to.

From all the reading I've done, I'm beginning to think that if I had a guarantee charge waiting for me at work, I should be fine, but without one, it seems I may be pushing it in the worst cases. I'm not a big fan of the automotive lease, but does that make more sense for me? I would greatly appreciate any comments, thoughts, or insight!
Jared.

You might want to consider a lease. You'll get the tax credit benefit immediately, and the gas savings will offset a big chunk of the lease payments. If you decide for whatever reason it wasn't for you or want to do something else you'll have an "out", or if you decide you want to keep the car you can buy it for the residual and only have paid a bit more than you would have had you bought it outright.

Worst case scenario, a bad winter in a couple years, you're pushing your luck. But, more infrastructure is being built all the time, so it will get easier to recharge in years to come. Buying might qualify you for the IL 10% rebate, but leasing may be better, just to carry you over for a couple years until longer range affordable EVs are on offer.

eldo73 said:

Currently I drive 45 miles round trip to work each day, mostly in a straight line, without any hills and very few turns, 5 days a week. There may be opportunity to charge at work, but there's no guarantee, and I'm not planning on it right now. I don't currently use my work car for much else, but were I to purchase a Leaf, I probably would try to use it for more trips around home as well.
...
From all the reading I've done, I'm beginning to think that if I had a guarantee charge waiting for me at work, I should be fine, but without one, it seems I may be pushing it in the worst cases. I'm not a big fan of the automotive lease, but does that make more sense for me? I would greatly appreciate any comments, thoughts, or insight!
Jared.

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Main things missing are how many miles will you drive the LEAF per year and will you have more than $7,500 in Federal tax owed in 2014.
45 miles times 365 is 16,400. How many miles did you put on your three vehicles last year? How many will shift to the LEAF?
Max miles per year on lease is usually 15,000. You can go over and pay for miles but that can get costly.
But if you don't have the tax liability leasing could be only way to go.
Your range analysis is spot on.
After three years LEAF is nominally 40 to 60 mile range, but below 5 F if you like heat it is 30 to 35 miles.
The SV or SL with heat pump helps on range but below 5 F heat has a huge impact.
Other than that, how much are you willing and able to spend?
The new 2015 is supposed to have heat resistant battery. It may have slower capacity degradation. But difference may be less where you live.
Can buy replacement battery now for $5,499 plus installation plus $225 kit if 2011 or 2012.
Lots of options for you to evaluate.
Key is your miles per year and can you get workplace charging?

Buying the Leaf will net you about a $3000 IL rebate. This only applies to purchases. Leaf will work for you 99% of the time, even in single degree temps.

Phatcat73 said:

... Leaf will work for you 99% of the time, even in single degree temps.

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But that is only a year or two.
A three year old LEAF that has been driven 16,400 miles per year will NOT work 99% of the time unless the OP has workplace charging or is willing to drive without heat. :shock:

TimLee said:

eldo73 said:

45 miles times 365 is 16,400. How many miles did you put on your three vehicles last year? How many will shift to the LEAF?
Max miles per year on lease is usually 15,000. You can go over and pay for miles but that can get costly.

After three years LEAF is nominally 40 to 60 mile range, but below 5 F if you like heat it is 30 to 35 miles.
The SV or SL with heat pump helps on range but below 5 F heat has a huge impact.

Key is your miles per year and can you get workplace charging?

Click to expand...

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None body works 365 days a year,

Figure ~240 day a year. (5day*52 weeks) - 10 holidays - 10 Vacation day - X (Cold weather days) * say 55miles a day (45 work, + lunch + on way home errands ) = ~13,200 (add in some Weekend trips you are moving into the 15K range)

Just plan to take a ICE car on cold weather days ( Does your wife work cost to home? Maybe she can take the Leaf on cold weather days. I would definitely grange the car in the winter, and leave it there on super cold days. You might want to get a L2 Charger for home also.

1. leasing a LEAF makes a lot more sense than owning one
2. your 45 mile commute is easily doable even without workplace charging, however where you'll be limited is any additional driving beyond the daily commute, a 20 mile deviation to go to a store will barely be doable and will cause you some range anxiety.
3. the fact that you will have an ICE as a backup to make longer trips will make having a LEAF in your stable more doable.

flyonpa said:

... No body works 365 days a year. ...

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I agree.
16,400 was probably high end.
But a lot of people that leased thought the LEAF would only be for their commute but then used it so much even on weekends and other short trips that they ended up way over on the lease mileage.

I agree the OP may be able to make the LEAF work.
Driving something other than the LEAF in really cold weather after the first two to three years is just one of the constraints the OP needs to expect, unless they can get and depend on work place charging.

TimLee said:

Phatcat73 said:

... Leaf will work for you 99% of the time, even in single degree temps.

Click to expand...

But that is only a year or two.
A three year old LEAF that has been driven 16,400 miles per year will NOT work 99% of the time unless the OP has workplace charging or is willing to drive without heat. :shock:

Click to expand...

You're comparing your 11 Leaf to a new one. Battery chemistry was improved several times the past couple years increasing longevity. Plus the 13+ Leafs have slightly greater range.

I'm at 16 months & 21,000 miles and still at 100-101% SOC based on Leafspy - AHr between 66-67. In 2 years and 50k miles I expect >95%

Phatcat73 said:

You're comparing your 11 Leaf to a new one. Battery chemistry was improved several times the past couple years increasing longevity. Plus the 13+ Leafs have slightly greater range.

I'm at 16 months & 21,000 miles and still at 100-101% SOC based on Leafspy - AHr between 66-67. In 2 years and 50k miles I expect >95%

Click to expand...

You are correct that I am extrapolating based on 2011.
There were major changes in battery configuration.
Much less detail or certainty about chemistry changes.
And most of the MNL credible sources that compared 2013 range to 2011 / 2012 found the difference to be very small.

Your results to date are very good and there are some other early good results.
But early to be very definitive on accurately comparing 2013 to earlier.
I hope you turn out to be right and have 95% at three years.
I remain skeptical.
We'll know a lot more a year from now.

since NO ONE knows how the 2014/15 LEAFs range will degrade over time, first thing I would do is discount all those statements.

I would do it without question. get an SV and you should be fine on all but a handful of days in your relatively short commute

TimLee said:

Phatcat73 said:

You're comparing your 11 Leaf to a new one. Battery chemistry was improved several times the past couple years increasing longevity. Plus the 13+ Leafs have slightly greater range.

I'm at 16 months & 21,000 miles and still at 100-101% SOC based on Leafspy - AHr between 66-67. In 2 years and 50k miles I expect >95%

Click to expand...

You are correct that I am extrapolating based on 2011.
There were major changes in battery configuration.
Much less detail or certainty about chemistry changes.
And most of the MNL credible sources that compared 2013 range to 2011 / 2012 found the difference to be very small.

Click to expand...

So the constant speed test showed no difference but all variable speed tests I've seen showed the 2013 and later slightly better than the 2012 and earlier.

In addition we need to consider the differences between Chattanooga and St. Charles Illinois - higher heat and more hills, both of which mean we would expect better results from a LEAF in the OP's location

Personally I've been skeptical of many of these posts here, sometimes asking for 70 miles or more round trip without interim recharging. But this one for me is a slam dunk yes. We very nearly moved to St Charles years ago so I know the area. A few hills, but very few. Ill bet the OP's commute doesn't have a lot of freeway, and that which is freeway won't be ultra fast (speed limits are never higher than 65 and traffic during commute hours is often much slower).

I do agree that this should be an SV or SL - you want the heat pump for the winters. But it will be a few years before 45 miles might become a challenge in the ultra cold, and by then charging at work (even if by trickle charge) or a en route QC are both likely to be available.

DaveinOlyWA said:

since NO ONE knows how the 2014/15 LEAFs range will degrade over time, first thing I would do is discount all those statements.

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The point of these statements is establishing a trend and the trend is that newer battery technology contains degradation improvements.

cgaydos said:

TimLee said:

Phatcat73 said:

You're comparing your 11 Leaf to a new one. Battery chemistry was improved several times the past couple years increasing longevity. Plus the 13+ Leafs have slightly greater range.

I'm at 16 months & 21,000 miles and still at 100-101% SOC based on Leafspy - AHr between 66-67. In 2 years and 50k miles I expect >95%

Click to expand...

You are correct that I am extrapolating based on 2011.
There were major changes in battery configuration.
Much less detail or certainty about chemistry changes.
And most of the MNL credible sources that compared 2013 range to 2011 / 2012 found the difference to be very small.

Click to expand...

So the constant speed test showed no difference but all variable speed tests I've seen showed the 2013 and later slightly better than the 2012 and earlier.

In addition we need to consider the differences between Chattanooga and St. Charles Illinois - higher heat and more hills, both of which mean we would expect better results from a LEAF in the OP's location

Personally I've been skeptical of many of these posts here, sometimes asking for 70 miles or more round trip without interim recharging. But this one for me is a slam dunk yes. We very nearly moved to St Charles years ago so I know the area. A few hills, but very few. Ill bet the OP's commute doesn't have a lot of freeway, and that which is freeway won't be ultra fast (speed limits are never higher than 65 and traffic during commute hours is often much slower).

I do agree that this should be an SV or SL - you want the heat pump for the winters. But it will be a few years before 45 miles might become a challenge in the ultra cold, and by then charging at work (even if by trickle charge) or a en route QC are both likely to be available.

Click to expand...

This forum is the only place that the constant speed test is supposed to show no improvement. I have not found that to be true. It is becoming clear that I am no longer alone in my beliefs. Nissan stated a 14% improvement in the mixed testing done in Japan.

14% is just under what I am seeing in every kind of test I have done. now a steady speed test is not really that doable unless done in the middle of the night. my work schedule does not allow me that kind of free time. the other day I was on the road at 4:40 am and still hit traffic 20 mins later.

On my days off, life interrupts. I have a 3 day weekend and its not likely I will get the chance to do a test despite not going out of town anywhere (I am the only one with the weekend off. everyone else is working)

but even on my primarily freeway trips (with the 3.2 miles on each end from my house to on/off ramps) I have done dozens of 90+ mile trips and have only occasionally cut it close due to bad weather. In my 2011, it was not really possible under any circumstances. Twice I tried a Southcenter Mall trip to Tukwila (roughly 94-5 miles RT) in my 2011 only to bail out because it looked like I would be a few miles short in optimal conditions. traffic slowed me down then as well. (Southcenter Mall is at the bottom of long downhill. At the bottom of the hill is the Southcenter Exit, the beginning of I-405 and the turnoff to Seatac... a VERY busy intersection)

A Washingtonian who just purchased his 3rd LEAF, drove over 100 miles from Tumwater DCFC to his home. nearly all freeway in his 2014. he states flatly that neither of his previous LEAFs would have made it AT ANY SPEED. This is coming from a guy who did the BC2BC rally and has done several roadtrips so he knows his ranges.