When will Nissan reach 100k a year (200k?, 300k?) Gen two LEAF sales target?

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edatoakrun

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If Nissan is as serious about making money on the Gen two as it says it is, and refusing to cut prices below cost, then the sales rate will depend largely on conditions outside Nissan's control, economic conditions, gas prices, and incentive levels in major markets.

But I wouldn't be surprised if it reached an annual sales rate of ~100k worldwide in the first year after production reaches full speed in all three factories.

So, I'll guess ~50k produced for the 2018 MY, and the first ~100k Gen two LEAFs sold by 4/1/19.

Nissan's new Leaf puts reality before romanticism

TOKYO -- Nissan Motor's revamped Leaf, its signature fully-electric car, is slated to go on sale in Japan on Monday.

The new model from an automaker that calls itself an electric-car leader has a sales target of 100,000 or so units a year. The number does not sound particularly ambitious, considering that rival Tesla's latest Model 3 attracted 500,000 or so orders.

Behind Nissan's moderate attitude is a bitter lesson of struggling to balance the dream and the reality of pushing the next-generation vehicles.

"Sustainability is the most essential thing for a business," said Hideyuki Sakamoto, executive vice president of the automaker. "Nissan isn't a gambler." The comment was an indication that the automaker would not try to sell as many Leafs as possible by offering low prices...

While adequately featuring state-of-the-art technology, Nissan made the most of parts from the previous Leaf to achieve the desired cost-profitability balance for the revamped version.

"The new Leaf is not a loss-making model," said a Nissan executive...
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Nissan-s-new-Leaf-puts-reality-before-romanticism?page=1

In comparison, it took Nissan over three years to sell 100k Gen one LEAFs:

When will LEAF sales reach 100,000?
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=13514&start=10

11/7 edit title to add: (200k?, 300k?)
 
I'm not convinced that they need to sell 100k a year. They do make other cars that they are also trying to make money on. It is also obvious to all of us that they are not trying to compete with Tesla in range or luxury.
 
Global or US?

I'll guess 20 months, with sales of the 2019 model really taking off. If the charging infrastructure makes huge leaps in the US, then this could change quickly.

The Gen 1 has been selling at a clip of around 50,000 units per year for the last 3 years. I would expect the Gen 2 to exceed that, with European sales leading the charge. European and Japanese drivers generally have shorter commutes, better access to charging and a love of hatchbacks.
 
edatoakrun said:
If Nissan is as serious about making money on the Gen two as it says it is, and refusing to cut prices below cost, then the sales rate will depend largely on conditions outside Nissan's control, economic conditions, gas prices, and incentive levels in major markets.

But I wouldn't be surprised if it reached an annual sales rate of ~100k worldwide in the first year after production reaches full speed in all three factories.

So, I'll guess ~50k produced for the 2018 MY, and the first ~100k Gen two LEAFs sold by 4/1/19...
Starting to look like I may have underestimated both Nissan's production capabilities and demand for the 2018:

New Nissan LEAF Sales Booming, 9,000 In Less Than 2 Months

Sales/orders of the new Nissan LEAF in under 2 months and in limited markets have already exceeded the amount of sales in 12 months of the first-gen LEAF when it went on sale back in 2010.

Nissan Europe EV Director Gareth Dunsmore says he’s thrilled by the level of interest in the new 2018 LEAF. According to Dunsmore, some 3,500 new LEAFs have been sold in Europe, despite only being available there since early September.

Even more impressive perhaps is the total figure, which Dunsmore says stands at 9,000 strong in terms of new LEAF orders (not all delivered yet) in Europe and Japan combined.

Dunsmore says that new LEAF orders have far exceed the automaker’s expectations, though he didn’t provide a figure for comparison between actual versus expectations...

Asako Hoshino, Nissan’s senior vice president and head of Japan operations, confirmed these higher-than-expected order figures for the new LEAF at the Tokyo Motor Show just yesterday...

Source: Automotive News Europe
https://insideevs.com/new-nissan-leaf-sales-booming-9000-orders-counting/
 
I saw that article as well. My prediction of 20 months was clearly off base. The demand in Europe is huge, and 150 miles of range is plenty in countries like Norway, Sweden, etc... They have a massive charging infrastructure and crazy incentives.

Can't forget that Europeans LOVE LOVE LOVE Hatchbacks!!! Will be interesting how the Model 3 will perform over there. Of course, if they develop a Model 3 hatchback that looks anything like fan renderings it will do great!!
 
I saw the article too, but read "sales/orders" to mean "orders". I can easily see that they have collected a few thousand pre-orders, but probably haven't actually sold that many yet. Obviously, they will deliver in Japan first and probably Europe/US concurrently. Maybe I'm wrong and they've already delivered some in Europe (remember the Bolt is in high demand, but not being allowed to be sold). In any case, eventually, just like Leaf 1, the Leaf 2 will sell only as many cars as Nissan actually produces. Yes, I'm sure that Gen two sales will exceed 100,000/yr world-wide, but probably not until 2019.
 
After the never-ending TSLA model 3 soap opera, the commentator seems almost shocked that a BEV manufacturer can actually deliver...

Nissan Shows How To Launch An EV Right, Almost 4,000 LEAF Sales In Debut Month For Japan

The new 2018 Nissan LEAF arrived last month in Japan. The refreshed 150 mile/241 km EV (locally rated at an impossible 400 km/249 miles) first when on sale domestically on October 1st, and demand was strong to say the least. Better still, Nissan knows what to do with demand – fill it!

For October, the LEAF set a new all-time sales record with 3,629 deliveries! Making the LEAF the 19th best selling car in Japan for the month.

In other words, Nissan may not have the very best EV out there (we’d really like to see that ~200 mile, affordable CUV already), but Nissan knows how to build EVs right…there was no showing off the vehicle and then teasing it for the next 2 years, no limited production at launch and a gradual roll-out over a year, no production “bottlenecks” because it had not put in the work yet, no building capacity for only a token amount.

…but rather Nissan announced the vehicle to the world only once volume production was already coming off the line (in this case from Nissan’s Oppama, Japan assembly facility), and took just 26 days from the model’s global debut (September 5th) to hit the first customer’s driveway.

Refreshing.

For the month, LEAF sales in Japan increased by 607% over the year prior, and shot the YTD number to 12,707 deliveries; so we expect that 2017 will be the best year of LEAF sales ever. Since December 2010, Nissan has delivered more than 85,000 LEAFs in Japan.

Nissan has said it expects to sell (“conservatively”) upwards of 150,000 copies of the new LEAF per year (3x historical norms for the 1st generation). It would appear the assembly of that many vehicles won’t be a problem – now to see if demand will be as strong.

Production of the new LEAF has now begun in Nissan’s Smyrna, TN plant, and also in the company’s Sunderland, UK plant (with China to follow). First deliveries are expected in the US and Europe in about 8 weeks...
https://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sales-japan-october-2017/
 
Nissan is going to have a lot of trouble selling Leafs in the US if the tax credit is killed. They need to make the cars available here to buy and lease before 12/31/17.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Nissan is going to have a lot of trouble selling Leafs in the US if the tax credit is killed. They need to make the cars available here to buy and lease before 12/31/17.
With the republiscum collapse in the elections yesterday, the tax credit seems much more secure today.

Nissan has probably already begun a slow ramp-up of production, but may want to hit a big number in the first sales month.

Nissan is building several other models at Smyrna, and operating near full production, so it's not like its in TSLAs predicament of having thousands of employees sitting on their gigabuts as the model # parts stack up in warehouses, and its last financial resources continue to burn.

Further explanation of 2018 LEAF sales/delivery numbers to date in the article below.

Now that the Japanese plants have reopened, we may find out about what total LEAF production capacity in Japan is with December or January delivery numbers, probably between 5 k and 10 k per month.

Nissan sells some 14,000 of the new electric LEAF in its first month

Including pre-orders, the LEAF actually sold 9,600 units in Japan in October. Together with a little over 4,000 LEAFs sold in Europe, Nissan’s 2nd generation EV found around 14,000 happy buyers globally by end of October, and wait until it comes to the U.S., where it should be available in January.

But what about the 3,629 reported for October? These are actual October registrations, reported by the Japanese government via Japan’s Automobile Dealer Association. In Japan, when a car is sold, the order goes to the factory, where the car is produced to spec, and when that is done, it is registered by the dealer, and the customer takes possession. These are firm orders, no $1,000 refundable deposits. A total of 9,600 LEAF were sold in Japan, Nissan’s domestic sales chief Asako Hoshino said today at Nissan’s quarterly results conference in Yokohama. All but 3,629 could not be delivered, because Nissan is in the throes of an inspection scandal that continues to make headlines in the island nation, and which is largely not understood elsewhere.

On October 19, Nissan stopped all deliveries to the Japanese market. As a result, Nissan’s total October registrations were nearly cut in half in Japan, while its actual sales continued unimpeded...
https://dailykanban.com/2017/11/nissan-sells-14000-new-electric-leaf-first-month/
 
With the republiscum collapse in the elections yesterday, the tax credit seems much more secure today.

Really? How many Senate seats did they lose? Did the House flip? Or do you believe that state Governors control US tax policy?
 
LeftieBiker said:
With the republiscum collapse in the elections yesterday, the tax credit seems much more secure today.

Really? How many Senate seats did they lose? Did the House flip? Or do you believe that state Governors control US tax policy?

It's not a stretch to assume the congressional leaders see the Virginia results as a broader sign that voters are against these policies. It's also debatable. Unfortunately they care more about self-preservation than sticking than their principles.

I personally believe nothing will happen with this bill until spring 2018 anway.
 
Sunderland has fired up, right on schedule, and the 2018 LEAF is now in production on three continents.

With their superior DC infrastructure, and generally shorter driving-range requirements, It would not be very surprising if 2018 LEAF sales in Europe surpass those in North America.

Production begins of the new Nissan LEAF in Europe

Production of the all-new Nissan LEAF, the next generation of the world’s best-selling electric vehicle, is officially underway for European customers.

With the first new LEAFs now rolling off the line at Nissan’s plant in Sunderland, UK, the countdown has now started to the first customers receiving their vehicles in February.

Embodying Nissan’s Intelligent Mobility vision and already winning international awards for innovation and technology, this new model has been reinvented to offer greater range, dynamic design, advanced driver assistance technologies and enhanced connectivity.

Kevin Fitzpatrick, Nissan Europe Divisional Vice President for Manufacturing, said: “Nissan led the way in introducing electric vehicles to Europe in 2011, and every year since then it’s been clear that more and more customers share our vision for the future of driving.

“We're excited to start production in and to bring the new Nissan LEAF to European markets from February.”

The new Nissan LEAF offers an improved range of 378km* on a single charge, allowing drivers to enjoy longer journeys, interconnected by the extended European CHAdeMO Quick Charging network...
https://newsroom.nissan-europe.com/eu/en-gb/media/pressreleases/426212878/production-begins-of-the-new-nissan-leaf-in-europe
 
PR doesn't mention how long it will take to deliver ~10 k LEAFs...

The acceleration of electrification: 10,000 European customers have ordered the new Nissan LEAF in two months

Nissan has built upon the experiences and feedback of 83,000 LEAF drivers to develop a brand new vehicle.

That car – the all-new Nissan LEAF – has received unprecedented interest from customers since its European unveiling in October 2017. In two months, 10,000 have been ordered across the region and growth is expected to increase as the vehicle starts to hit showrooms from February 2018.

At the same point back in 2010, orders for the original LEAF could be counted in the hundreds as customers were presented with this new and exciting – but still unproven – technology.

Gareth Dunsmore, Director, Electric Vehicles, Nissan Europe, commented: “We are delighted by the tangible customer interest we have received for the new LEAF as it confirms the leadership Nissan has in electric vehicles. However, the new LEAF is not just our new generation electric vehicle, but also the icon of Nissan Intelligent Mobility in Europe.”

Since its global unveil in Japan in September, consumer interest and momentum for new LEAF has built steadily across Europe. In early October initial vehicle specifications and pre-sale pricing were released at Nissan’s Futures 3.0 event in Oslo, Norway. Since then, customers have been able to place orders for new LEAF through their local Nissan retailer.

To date, customer interest in the new LEAF has been stimulated through positive media coverage. The car has been praised for the host of new innovations and technologies it brings, including Nissan ProPILOT driver assistance technology, and Nissan e-Pedal, which when activated allows the driver to reduce use of the brake pedal by up to 90%.

Impressively, the 10,000 customer orders have been taken without new LEAF being physically available in Nissan retailers for test drive, and without direct consumer advertising and promotion...
https://newsroom.nissan-europe.com/eu/en-gb/media/pressreleases/426213033/the-acceleration-of-electrification-10000-european-customers-have-ordered-the-new-nissan-leaf-in-two1
 
1,912 LEAF sales put it well ahead of the PIP in Japanese deliveries last November.

Toyota will win first in "electric" sales for 2017, but 2018...?

Japan November 2017

...If the 2017 Best Seller trophy is certain to go to Toyota and its Prius PHV, thanks to 25.000 units, obliterating all previous records, providing the brand's second award, adding to the 2012 trophy, for the 2018 edition, the Toyota nameplate wil have a much harder task at hand, as the Nissan Leaf is said to have a 30-45k sales target for Japan alone...
http://ev-sales.blogspot.ch/search/label/Japan

Total LEAF gen 2 sales ~5,500 as of 12/1/17.
 
Sounds like LEAF one sold something over 290 k in total by the end of production, and LEAF two will soon hit five-figures.

Nissan delivers 300,000th Nissan LEAF

The Nissan LEAF is the best-selling electric vehicle in the world


YOKOHAMA, Japan – Nissan announced today that the company has sold its 300,000th* Nissan LEAF globally since the model first went on sale in 2010.

The 100% electric LEAF is the world's first mass-produced – and also the world's best-selling – electric car.

Nissan launched a fully redesigned version of the LEAF in September 2017. Drivers will feel more confident, excited and connected thanks to the car's ProPILOT (ProPILOT Assist in the U.S.) technology, ProPILOT Park technology, e-Pedal, increased power and range, and improved refinement, comfort and convenience.**

"These numbers prove that the Nissan LEAF remains the most advanced car in the world, with the widest reach and the greatest availability," said Nissan Executive Vice President Daniele Schillaci. "The new Nissan LEAF is the icon of Nissan Intelligent Mobility because it delivers an even more exciting drive and enhanced ownership experience and contributes to a better world. It will take Nissan's EV leadership even further." ...

* 293,744 units as of the end of November 2017
https://newsroom.nissan-global.com/releases/release-4a75570239bf1983b1e6a41b7d00d8f5-nissan-delivers-300000th-nissan-leaf
 
Nissan LEAF Sales In Japan Hit New Record In 2017 (Nearly 8,000 In 3 Months)

The new Nissan LEAF became the 27th best-selling full size car in Japan last month, hitting a solid 2,306 sales (up 87% year-over-year).

After the introduction of next generation LEAF in October, Nissan achieved almost 8,000 sales in three months – which was 46% of total LEAF sales for the year.

Hopefully, the new LEAF will enable at least a doubling of sales in 2018 in Japan, to some 25,000-30,000 units....
https://insideevs.com/nissan-leaf-sales-in-japan-hit-new-record-in-2017-nearly-8000-in-three-months/
 
Success in Japan suggests world-wide LEAF sales could reach five-figures-per-month in the near future:

2018 Nissan Leaf sales recover in Japan

Nissan has finally recovered from the inspection scandal.

In Japan first deliveries of the new 2018 Nissan Leaf begun in October last year. In the debut month 3.629 units of both the new and outgoing models were sold in total, but in the following two months sales declined due to an inspection scandal.

Anyway, now inspection problems seem to be in the past and last month Nissan was able to sell 3.768 units of the Leaf in Japan – making a total of 11.615 units sold since the new model’s debut month. Furthermore, the Nissan Leaf was the 19th best selling passenger car in that country last month.

Now that first deliveries are also happening in Europe and the USA, it’ll be interesting to see which market will surpass the Japanese sale figures first...
https://pushevs.com/2018/02/17/2018-nissan-leaf-sales-recover-japan/

USA 2018 LEAF inventory has increased from 0 to almost 1 k in only a few weeks, BTW.

http://www.nissanusa.com/buildyournissan/inventory/index?modelLineCode=LEF&lang=en&tool=overview-landing.inventory.link#

CG reiterates his claim that the N/R/M Alliance leads the industry in BEV profitability,

For all the disappointment of the Gen two 2018 LEAF utilizing the same platform of the 2011-2017 LEAF, this probably allowed a huge savings in development and production costs that may allow Nissan to blow by the ZEV credit limit in LEAF production numbers which seem to be constricting most money-losing BEV manufacturers, like GM with the Bolt.

Carlos Ghosn: 'We're probably the only carmaker who's starting to make money selling electric cars

The auto alliance between Renault, Nissan and Mitsubishi is probably the most advanced and profitable carmaker when it comes to producing electric cars, the company's CEO told CNBC Friday.

The alliance, which started work on electrification back in 2008, announced September that it is going to produce 12 new electric cars within the next five years. Speaking to CNBC, Carlos Ghosn, the chief executive officer, said that it takes time to make money out of electric cars but the French group has mastered the business.

"We are probably the most advanced carmaker in terms of costs of electric cars and we have announced already in 2017 that we are probably the only carmaker who's starting to make money selling electric cars," Ghosn said...
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/16/ghosn-were-probably-the-only-carmaker-whos-starting-to-make-money-selling-electric-cars.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
 
First full month of sales in Europe reported:

Leaf Amazes in Records Storm

...#1 Nissan Leaf – Simply Amazing. The 2.0 version of the most popular plug-in in the world had its first full deliveries month in Europe last March and by registering 6,053 units, the Nissan hatchback recorded the second best result ever in Europe for a plug-in, and with the orders list at over 15,000 units, expect the Leaf to remain at around 5,000 units in the coming months, limited only by the Sunderland production capacity. But back to March, the main markets were Norway (2,172 deliveries, new all-time record for a single model), UK (1,500), France (719), Germany (346) and the Netherlands (299)...
http://ev-sales.blogspot.ch/
 
April Sales numbers out.

https://insideevs.com/april-2018-plug-in-electric-vehicle-sales-report-card/

Nissan not doing well? Rapid gate??

At this rate it will take 2 years for Nissan to hit 200k?
 
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