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Re: What is your guess for Gen 2 Leaf ?

Posted: Fri May 29, 2015 1:14 pm
by desiv
DNAinaGoodWay wrote:Plus, a MSRP over $35k will just feed Model 3 uptake, especially if CHAdeMO stays at 44kW.

I really do wonder about Tesla in that, I'm not sure if they can come out at that price point around that time frame, but...
If they can, yeah, I can really see a BIG year for them..
I think this might be another reason Nissan is going slightly bigger now. To try to catch people who might be on the edge waiting.. ;-)

desiv

Re: What is your guess for Gen 2 Leaf ?

Posted: Fri May 29, 2015 6:28 pm
by TonyWilliams
evnow wrote:
TonyWilliams wrote:At $400 per kWh, then battery cost are:

Looks rather high for Gen 2.


I'm assuming their own cells, and kWh commodity pricing doesn't include packaging, BMS, TMS, etc.

If they're using LG cells, as is widely thought, then maybe $325 per kWh.

Tesla is believed to be around $275, on the way down to $150 by 2020.

Re: What is your guess for Gen 2 Leaf ?

Posted: Fri May 29, 2015 6:47 pm
by evnow
TonyWilliams wrote:I'm assuming their own cells, and kWh commodity pricing doesn't include packaging, BMS, TMS, etc.

If they're using LG cells, as is widely thought, then maybe $325 per kWh.

Tesla is believed to be around $275, on the way down to $150 by 2020.


Patil said recently their packs have come down by 50% in price (and some 40% higher density) compared to '11 Volt. The pack was reported to be $500/kWh at that time. So, I think LG price is $250 or so.

Nissan packaging cost is not 30% like it is for LG. It has to be lesser considering no TMS. So, I think Nissan pack is no more than $300/kWh.

Re: What is your guess for Gen 2 Leaf ?

Posted: Sat May 30, 2015 3:33 am
by DeeAgeaux
evnow wrote:
TonyWilliams wrote:I'm assuming their own cells, and kWh commodity pricing doesn't include packaging, BMS, TMS, etc.

If they're using LG cells, as is widely thought, then maybe $325 per kWh.

Tesla is believed to be around $275, on the way down to $150 by 2020.


Patil said recently their packs have come down by 50% in price (and some 40% higher density) compared to '11 Volt. The pack was reported to be $500/kWh at that time. So, I think LG price is $250 or so.

Nissan packaging cost is not 30% like it is for LG. It has to be lesser considering no TMS. So, I think Nissan pack is no more than $300/kWh.


If Nissan accepts a 400 kWh pack price then it is accepting becoming an also ran in the BEV market or essentially paying for market share until it rings out problems in the supply chain or its own in house battery production..

I agree Gen II will be no more than $300 per kWh and likely better.