Tesla's main advantage is range and wealthy buyers at the moment, if affordable chemistry comes about Tesla could suffer severely from mass production at the hands of major auto makers. Their "affordable" EV is a long way away and will not likely be affordable except in relative terms to a model S, that is the more likely outcome. However so far affordable 250 mile packs are vaporware at this point. As a side note for all those that believe that Toyota hates EVs, well we shall see how true that if any maker has an affordable 250 mile EV, most of the PR is intentional for competitive posturing and nonsense misdirection as in Toyota's transparent dis-information campaigns.
Tesla's main advantage is that they are all in the BEV game and battery cell economies of scale.
Not units of battery packs but in kWh.
Cost savings from building gliders at scale pale to manufacturing battery cells at scale.
The likely outcome is the base Model 3 comes within $6k of a base LEAF.
Double current LEAF range is 168 EPA miles.
Any new battery chemistry that radically alters cost will take at least 5 years to validate and given the conservative nature of the large auto makers it will most likely take 10 years.
Catastrophic failure of batteries in terms of safety or durability can sink an automakers BEV program for 20+ years. Even if not fully deserved. How long did it take GM and Ford to get over Vega and Pinto infamy before they could sell small cars without huge discounts relative to the Japanese?