2019 "60 kWh" Leaf e-Plus

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smkettner said:
No way would I drive or recommend a Nissan until the battery consistently holds 85%+ capacity at 100K miles.

That's not very reasonable because it comes close to violating what is now known about the physics of lithium batteries. 70 or 75+% at 100k miles would be reasonable.
 
LeftieBiker said:
smkettner said:
No way would I drive or recommend a Nissan until the battery consistently holds 85%+ capacity at 100K miles.

That's not very reasonable because it comes close to violating what is now known about the physics of lithium batteries. 70 or 75+% at 100k miles would be reasonable.

85% capacity after <450 cycles (assuming 225 miles/charge) doesn't seem unreasonable to me. Although calendar life factors in as well. There is a big difference between these high-mileage drivers who go 100k miles in 2 years versus a more typical driver who might take 8-10 years.
 
smkettner said:
WetEV said:
smkettner said:
No way would I drive or recommend a Nissan until the battery consistently holds 85%+ capacity at 100K miles.
Even if the Nissan EV was the cheapest EV to operate per mile?
How much does a battery cost every 50,000 miles? Less?

Cost of the battery depends on a lot of items. Cost of ownership on even more. And why the change from 100k to 50k or less?

Why 85%? Economics gives a different answer than 85%. Why not replace the battery at the lowest cost percentage X%?

If you need Y kWh, put in Y/X% kWh.
 
My 2017 Leaf battery is currently at about 400% of my daily needs. Once it drops below 100% I'll consider replacing it but that will be a while.....
 
goldbrick said:
My 2017 Leaf battery is currently at about 400% of my daily needs. Once it drops below 100% I'll consider replacing it but that will be a while.....

Funny: if more people looked at EVs that way, we wouldn't even be having this discussion!
More than 75% of work commutes continue to be <40 miles round trip. Now that doesn't mean I wouldn't like a little extra cushion of 30 or 40 (on the highway, in the cold, with the heater on) miles, but I certainly don't need 200 or 300 miles.
 
If you define "needs" as the length of your commute plus a modest cushion, then you are setting both yourself and other drivers up for disappointment and frustration. Unless the car is acquired for use just as a commuter vehicle, then it needs to be able to do at least almost all of the trips taken in a typical year. For me and many others, this is about 100 miles in Summer, 75 in Winter. Having just seen my SOH drop about 1% in one month, I'm not feeling supportive of Nissan and their vanishing capacity batteries.
 
I'm just basing my estimate on the fact that I charge about twice a week on average. If I wanted to charge every night in the garage (easy, peasy for me and many EV owners) then I could go about 4x what I do now. All of this is on average of course.

That said, my current range is just about 100% of what it would take to do a round-trip to the local airport. I could add some charge near the airport (for free currently) but so far I haven't even tried a trip to the airport in my Leaf. In the winter or after the battery degrades it will be a non-starter without a charge somewhere along the way. But I drive to the airport maybe 2 or 3 times a year. I can easily take an ICE car or ride the bus for those few trips.

My point being is that I don't want to spend $$$$$ on an EV that will do (almost) everything an ICE car can do but for $$ I have an EV that does a lot.
 
EVDRIVER said:
kmartyn said:
Canadian dealers are now sending out email notices that Leaf 2018 model is sold out, and that the 2019 model year will be $800-900 more.
I cannot see how they would be able to get 60KWH with TMS, faster charging and a bigger motor in there for that price.

They can't and they won't. Didn't you hear, the 2019 Canada models are all the 2018 US models they could not sell, the $900 is the additional freight to ship them.

That would be a bit outrageous. Nissan gonna go thru and change all the VINs first?
 
LeftieBiker said:
smkettner said:
No way would I drive or recommend a Nissan until the battery consistently holds 85%+ capacity at 100K miles.

That's not very reasonable because it comes close to violating what is now known about the physics of lithium batteries. 70 or 75+% at 100k miles would be reasonable.

Without stating pack size, you cannot make such a statement. a 200 Kwh pack would easily exceed those parameters in a mere 100,000 miles.

With a pack size of 60 kwh, now it becomes a difference between BMS (of which we know nothing) and Chemistry (of which we know nothing)

An ultraconservative BMS like the 40 kwh pack with better chemistry (will likely increase costs) combined with TMS and the pack should easily beat that 85% number.
 
The simple answer is that the battery should last the life of the car. If you call 200K/15 years EOL and expect 60% of battery capacity at that point, then 80% at 100K/8 years seems pretty reasonable. When Nissan exec's talked about the car they said that they expected the battery would retain 80% of capacity after 100K. If you were going to buy an ICE and the dealer said to you that you'ld have to replace the engine after 60K, I expect that you'ld laugh in his face and walk out. Why should I expect less of an EV then a conventional car?
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
LeftieBiker said:
smkettner said:
No way would I drive or recommend a Nissan until the battery consistently holds 85%+ capacity at 100K miles.
That's not very reasonable because it comes close to violating what is now known about the physics of lithium batteries. 70 or 75+% at 100k miles would be reasonable.
Without stating pack size, you cannot make such a statement. a 200 Kwh pack would easily exceed those parameters in a mere 100,000 miles.

With a pack size of 60 kwh, now it becomes a difference between BMS (of which we know nothing) and Chemistry (of which we know nothing)

An ultraconservative BMS like the 40 kwh pack with better chemistry (will likely increase costs) combined with TMS and the pack should easily beat that 85% number.
I read the threads on battery life. Pathetic at best. Need better chemistry and TMS. Nissan really needs to turn this around as they are putting a real black mark on EV adoption.
 
So supposedly the 60 kWh, 225 mile version will be a more expensive (SL?) version. But is there any information yet on the "regular" 2019, the 40 kWh, 150 mile S and SV versions?

What I'm particularly wondering is whether the 2019 S and SV trims will have the LG Chem battery, TMS, and/or the 100 kW fast charging. My understanding is that the 2018 S and SV were priced more or less the same as the 2017 S and SV, albeit with 50% more range. So it wouldn't be out of the question that the 2019 S and SV could start at 29K and 32K respectively, but each with a much better LG Chem battery, and TMS, and the 100 kW fast charging. If the 2019 SV with All-Weather was 32K, and there were still healthy dealer discounts and tax breaks, and it had an LG Chem battery that was good for 150 miles now and 150 miles 10 years from now, and you could quick charge it in half the time as the 2018, well then I actually think that would be a better deal than a 225 mile version for 40K.

Or will the S and SV still just have the same crap battery?
 
Kieran973 said:
So supposedly the 60 kWh, 225 mile version will be a more expensive (SL?) version. But is there any information yet on the "regular" 2019, the 40 kWh, 150 mile S and SV versions?

What I'm particularly wondering is whether the 2019 S and SV trims will have the LG Chem battery, TMS, and/or the 100 kW fast charging. My understanding is that the 2018 S and SV were priced more or less the same as the 2017 S and SV, albeit with 50% more range. So it wouldn't be out of the question that the 2019 S and SV could start at 29K and 32K respectively, but each with a much better LG Chem battery, and TMS, and the 100 kW fast charging. If the 2019 SV with All-Weather was 32K, and there were still healthy dealer discounts and tax breaks, and it had an LG Chem battery that was good for 150 miles now and 150 miles 10 years from now, and you could quick charge it in half the time as the 2018, well then I actually think that would be a better deal than a 225 mile version for 40K.

Or will the S and SV still just have the same crap battery?

Are you forgetting Nissan still has a battery company? What confirmation have we gotten that LG was doing the 60 kwh pack? I do know there was a lot of speculation on that since negotiations between the two companies especially when Renault was sourcing their packs from LG but since that is no more, I have to say.... I we might be in for a big surprise.
 
DaveinOlyWA said:
Kieran973 said:
So supposedly the 60 kWh, 225 mile version will be a more expensive (SL?) version. But is there any information yet on the "regular" 2019, the 40 kWh, 150 mile S and SV versions?

What I'm particularly wondering is whether the 2019 S and SV trims will have the LG Chem battery, TMS, and/or the 100 kW fast charging. My understanding is that the 2018 S and SV were priced more or less the same as the 2017 S and SV, albeit with 50% more range. So it wouldn't be out of the question that the 2019 S and SV could start at 29K and 32K respectively, but each with a much better LG Chem battery, and TMS, and the 100 kW fast charging. If the 2019 SV with All-Weather was 32K, and there were still healthy dealer discounts and tax breaks, and it had an LG Chem battery that was good for 150 miles now and 150 miles 10 years from now, and you could quick charge it in half the time as the 2018, well then I actually think that would be a better deal than a 225 mile version for 40K.

Or will the S and SV still just have the same crap battery?

Are you forgetting Nissan still has a battery company? What confirmation have we gotten that LG was doing the 60 kwh pack? I do know there was a lot of speculation on that since negotiations between the two companies especially when Renault was sourcing their packs from LG but since that is no more, I have to say.... I we might be in for a big surprise.

It will be fascinating to see how sales go if there isn't a great deal of explaining about AESC batteries. Just as I have been watching Dave's blog about 40 kWh battery deterioration, I would have to watch the performance of AESC 60s for a year or two before getting suckered again. I have been looking at other MY... sites - I haven't found concern about battery deterioration or a Leaf Spy equivalent on the ChevyBolt site or the i3 site (but too many drive trains shutting down while accelerating onto the freeway for my comfort).
 
2011RedLeaf said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
Kieran973 said:
So supposedly the 60 kWh, 225 mile version will be a more expensive (SL?) version. But is there any information yet on the "regular" 2019, the 40 kWh, 150 mile S and SV versions?

What I'm particularly wondering is whether the 2019 S and SV trims will have the LG Chem battery, TMS, and/or the 100 kW fast charging. My understanding is that the 2018 S and SV were priced more or less the same as the 2017 S and SV, albeit with 50% more range. So it wouldn't be out of the question that the 2019 S and SV could start at 29K and 32K respectively, but each with a much better LG Chem battery, and TMS, and the 100 kW fast charging. If the 2019 SV with All-Weather was 32K, and there were still healthy dealer discounts and tax breaks, and it had an LG Chem battery that was good for 150 miles now and 150 miles 10 years from now, and you could quick charge it in half the time as the 2018, well then I actually think that would be a better deal than a 225 mile version for 40K.

Or will the S and SV still just have the same crap battery?

Are you forgetting Nissan still has a battery company? What confirmation have we gotten that LG was doing the 60 kwh pack? I do know there was a lot of speculation on that since negotiations between the two companies especially when Renault was sourcing their packs from LG but since that is no more, I have to say.... I we might be in for a big surprise.

It will be fascinating to see how sales go if there isn't a great deal of explaining about AESC batteries. Just as I have been watching Dave's blog about 40 kWh battery deterioration, I would have to watch the performance of AESC 60s for a year or two before getting suckered again. I have been looking at other MY... sites - I haven't found concern about battery deterioration or a Leaf Spy equivalent on the ChevyBolt site or the i3 site (but too many drive trains shutting down while accelerating onto the freeway for my comfort).

Well, I think TMS will go a long way towards ensuring a more consistent (and faster) QC experience on roadtrips (and for people in Phoenix for everyday drving :? ) but ASC still has the issue of using less than desirable battery chemistry.

Now, they have always contended they were erring on the side of safety and maybe the significantly lower incidence of LEAF fires bears that out. I am "hoping" they simply don't decide that TMS is enough without continuing to tweak the chemistry to get more cycles from it.
 
I think we're getting close to the 60kWh Leaf. My wife has recently decided that she's ready to switch to an EV, so this morning I started playing around on the Leaf configurator and it's been thoroughly overhauled. Aside from the visual differences, there are now five grades instead of three: S, X, G, 100,000th Leaf Commemorative, and Nismo. Motor type and battery type are now displayed underneath the grade. At the moment, all five show the EM57 motor and 40kWh battery, but I think that was made to accommodate the new motor and battery that is expected for the 2019 model year. Maybe we'll hear something official soon.

It also looks like the Nismo has a different rear suspension and sportier tires, but isn't any quicker than other models. It does say that the throttle response is more aggressive.
 
smkettner said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
LeftieBiker said:
That's not very reasonable because it comes close to violating what is now known about the physics of lithium batteries. 70 or 75+% at 100k miles would be reasonable.
Without stating pack size, you cannot make such a statement. a 200 Kwh pack would easily exceed those parameters in a mere 100,000 miles.

With a pack size of 60 kwh, now it becomes a difference between BMS (of which we know nothing) and Chemistry (of which we know nothing)

An ultraconservative BMS like the 40 kwh pack with better chemistry (will likely increase costs) combined with TMS and the pack should easily beat that 85% number.
I read the threads on battery life. Pathetic at best. Need better chemistry and TMS. Nissan really needs to turn this around as they are putting a real black mark on EV adoption.

Nissan has sold more electric cars than any other auto maker to date, so I'm not so sure about that.
 
tattoogunman said:
smkettner said:
DaveinOlyWA said:
Without stating pack size, you cannot make such a statement. a 200 Kwh pack would easily exceed those parameters in a mere 100,000 miles.

With a pack size of 60 kwh, now it becomes a difference between BMS (of which we know nothing) and Chemistry (of which we know nothing)

An ultraconservative BMS like the 40 kwh pack with better chemistry (will likely increase costs) combined with TMS and the pack should easily beat that 85% number.
I read the threads on battery life. Pathetic at best. Need better chemistry and TMS. Nissan really needs to turn this around as they are putting a real black mark on EV adoption.

Nissan has sold more electric cars than any other auto maker to date, so I'm not so sure about that.

There are some born every day, and I bought 2 myself. Their only saving grace will be to provide a better battery. Too many of us duped in the past and including right up to the present. Some of us try to get the word out and many hear it, and many don't. They will be forced to update because of more competition or they will fade away. So far, it looks like the 2019 might be their (catch up) car. 2018 is a fall two steps back...
 
tattoogunman said:
Nissan has sold more electric cars than any other auto maker to date, so I'm not so sure about that.
To what date ?

Worldwide, LEAF sales peaked in 2014 and have been 40k - 50k a year through 2017. I'm not sure about 2018. All told, 350k sounds ballpark.
Nowadays Tesla sells about 30k a *month* and is ramping up very quickly. In June Tesla sold its 200,000th in the US. I have read that the US accounts for ~ 1/2 of sales.

So I'll guess that Nissan is 2nd to Tesla and falling further behind by the day as Tesla ramps and LEAF sales fall off a cliff everywhere but Europe, the latter in grave risk once Tesla Model 3 is available in that market. I won't be at all surprised to read that worldwide LEAF sales are plateauing at 2k a month by the end of the year.

Does that sound like a has been to you ? It sure does to me.
Can Nissan jump back in to the ring of front runners with a model that does not suck ? Sure, but it will probably require major R&D to the car, to the battery chemistry, and massive investment in battery production. The only message I heard coming out of Nissan corporate recently is that they want to play in the not too expensive but crap EV arena. That sounds consistent with 2,000 cars a month sales worldwide.
 
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