LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

AML01 said:

Why bad news?

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Because the 200km figure for the 2010 LEAF was utter bullshit. Realistically then you have to downrate their numbers by multiplying by 0.65. Applied to the lower of "350 to 400", it suggests the 2018 will have a range of about 140 miles.

Nubo said:

AML01 said:

Why bad news?

Click to expand...

Because the 200km figure for the 2010 LEAF was utter bullshit. Realistically then you have to downrate their numbers by multiplying by 0.65. Applied to the lower of "350 to 400", it suggests the 2018 will have a range of about 140 miles.

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Heh. 200 km is probably on some very lenient Japanese test cycle. 200 km = ~124 miles. That car got a 73 mile EPA range rating.

Anyone who drives a 2011 or 2012 Leaf will NOT want to tell ICEV drivers that the range of that car is 124 miles! I started this thread awhile ago: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=13264.

I ran the article thru Google Translate and skimmed a translation of the current car having a "280 km" range in JC 08 mode. Ummm.... 280 km is almost 174 miles but the current 30 kWh Leaf is EPA rated at 107 miles.

Applied to the lower of "350 to 400", it suggests the 2018 will have a range of about 140 miles.

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That's exactly what I was expecting, given the likely 40kwh pack, and that would work fine for me. It will probably be academic, though, as I won't drive my 2013 another Winter while waiting for a maybe-moderately-improved Leaf 1.8.

ydnas7 said:

bad news
yuk
http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/atcl/mag/15/397260/040300156/?rt=nocnt

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AML01 said:

Why bad news?

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I don't have a subscription but just reading the first free page and converting the JC08 to EPA, it translates as 133 - 150 mi range in 2017/18 and 210 mi range in 2020. And says these are quotes from Mr. Kazuo Yajima - He's Nissan Global EV / HEV engineering director.

However, this isn't necessarily bad news, it really depends on price. A reasonably priced 150 mi range 2018 Leaf would work just fine for me.

Another interesting note, the teaser into the paid article has a subhead of $90 per kWh battery cost.

It would be great if someone could give us an overview of the entire article.

150 mile EPA might be OK if it's priced accordingly. For example, if it's priced to compete with Ioniq, it'll do well. But not if it's priced like Bolt.

jhm614 said:

I don't have a subscription but just reading the first free page and converting the JC08 to EPA, it translates as 133 - 150 mi range in 2017/18 and 210 mi range in 2020. And says these are quotes from Mr. Kazuo Yajima - He's Nissan Global EV / HEV engineering director.

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150 mile Leaf at the current price would actually sell well - will probably beat Bolt in sales (esp. if GM doesn't reduce price). But they will lose face. I guess they will just tout their 2020 model that will have 200 miles of range.

I guess they will just tout their 2020 model that will have 200 miles of range.

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Or their 2023 model (actual delivery in 2025), with 500 miles of range (actual range 250 miles).

DNAinaGoodWay said:

150 mile EPA might be OK if it's priced accordingly. For example, if it's priced to compete with Ioniq, it'll do well. But not if it's priced like Bolt.

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Regardless of the battery size the next gen LEAF will undercut the Bolt pricing.

But you gotta ask yourself are you willing to pay several thousand dollars more for another 100 miles of range. i.e would you rather have a $28K 150 mile LEAF or a $35K 250 mile LEAF?

I suspect that the 150 mile car will be the best seller.

The summary of the article is summarized as follows.

The new type of leaf that we expect to introduce in 2017, the cruising distance is 350 to 400 km (JC 08 mode) , the price is equivalent to the current price, we would like the real selling price subsidized to be about 3.6 million yen .

With the installation of a large capacity battery, the problem of cruising distance is expected to be resolved in a few years. The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined sharply, falling to 1/5 in 2010 from 2015 when the original leaves were released. It decreases to 1/10 in 2020.
2010 800 USD / kWh> 400 USD / kWh in 2014> 150 USD / kWh in 2016> 100 USD / kWh in 2020

The sales of Nissan Note e-Power are good, and motoring is welcomed to consumers.

Purchasing customers of plug-in hybrid vehicles are seeking a motor drive that does not start the engine. Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Toyota Prius PHV are all the same situation.


Ouch, early LEAFs had $800/kWh battery.
http://aliss.jp/?p=395

Thanks for the translation. I wonder if the 40kwh pack is the result of Nissan using Leaf 1 as the platform for "Leaf 2," with just the nose and tail structurally changed. The current car does have much of the pack under the midsection...

LeftieBiker said:

Thanks for the translation. I wonder if the 40kwh pack is the result of Nissan using Leaf 1 as the platform for "Leaf 2," with just the nose and tail structurally changed. The current car does have much of the pack under the midsection...

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to me, changing the floorpan of a car is changing the platform. The LEAF 1 series cells are different to LEAF 2 series cells. 40kWh could be either series.

Nissan / Toyota will keep the midsection appearing the same, even if they change everything. Its just how the Japanese roll.

LeftieBiker said:

Thanks for the translation. I wonder if the 40kwh pack is the result of Nissan using Leaf 1 as the platform for "Leaf 2," with just the nose and tail structurally changed. The current car does have much of the pack under the midsection...

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Its the result of using in-house battery instead of LG's.

40 kwh would be a non-starter for me. If I can't get 200 mile range I would rather limp along with my 2011 Leaf and use an ICE vehicle for longer trips.

Stoaty said:

40 kwh would be a non-starter for me..

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Then for your situation, price is not an issue, but rather the extra 80-100 miles of range is more important?

OrientExpress said:

Stoaty said:

40 kwh would be a non-starter for me..

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Then for your situation, price is not an issue, but rather the extra 80-100 miles of range is more important?

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Price is always an issue (or I would buy Tesla 100D). However, for my situation there are two ranges that would be useful for me:

--minimum 50 miles on freeway with 1,000 feet of elevation gain (I can still do this with my Leaf, but can't go above 60 MPH now and soon may have to drive slower. I am guessing I can last 1-2 years before this becomes problematic.)

--minimum 200 miles (will allow me to make weekly 150 mile round trip with 5,000 feet elevation gain and loss. With moderate capacity loss will still be able to make the trip)

The in between range doesn't have much more utility for me than the 50 mile minimum, although of course having more is always a little nicer.

My plan: keep my Leaf until a 200 mile BEV less than $40,000 is available. If they improve the seats, the Chevy Bolt may be in the running. Otherwise waiting for longer range Leaf or model 3.

Then the 240~250 mile 2018 LEAF will be the one for you. Most others will probably be happy with 150 miles of range.

OrientExpress said:

Then the 240~250 mile 2018 LEAF will be the one for you. Most others will probably be happy with 150 miles of range.

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Are you expecting (or know) that '18 Leaf will have 150 mile option as well as 250 mile ? Either you are correct or that chart. Not both.

I believe that Nissan understands that there is a market for a LEAF with a choice of range options.

Some will want a longer range car and are willing to pay a premium for that option.

But the company that has sold more EVs than anyone else understands the market very well and knows that the majority of EV buyers are budget conscious that value lower cost over range with all other considerations equal.

For them a proportional mix of range options allows them to give everyone what they want.

You want range, we have a LEAF for you. On a budget and can live with shorter range? We have a LEAF for you too.

OrientExpress said:

I believe that Nissan understands that there is a market for a LEAF with a choice of range options.

Some will want a longer range car and are willing to pay a premium for that option.

But the company that has sold more EVs than anyone else understands the market very well and knows that the majority of EV buyers are budget conscious that value lower cost over range with all other considerations equal.

For them a proportional mix of range options allows them to give everyone what they want.

You want range, we have a LEAF for you. On a budget and can live with shorter range? We have a LEAF for you too.

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I don't know why that should be such a surprise to auto mfgs, after all they've been offering different size engines for ICE vehicles for many decades, why would they think people wouldn't want choices with an EV :? vehicles with different ranges and hence price points :idea:

OrientExpress said:

Then the 240~250 mile 2018 LEAF will be the one for you. Most others will probably be happy with 150 miles of range.

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you seem to have good confidence about these things. I hope you're right. I too think that Nissan should provide both a longer (~250 mi) and shorter (150 mi) range for the Leaf2.