Where are all of these 200-mile EVs coming from?

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Nubo

Nubo

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We are seeing pronouncements from Chevy, Tesla, Nissan… Seems like they're all going to be making "affordable" 200-mile EVs within just 2 or 3 years.

How is this possible?

Is there some major change in cost per battery kWh on the horizon?
Are they counting on some huge influence on the battery marketplace from the Tesla Gigafactory?
Some new battery technology that's being kept close to the chest? Magnesium-ion? Other?

Why does an affordable 200-mile EV make economic sense to manufacture in 2017 but today we have less than half of that?
 
Nubo said:
We are seeing pronouncements from Chevy, Tesla, Nissan… Seems like they're all going to be making "affordable" 200-mile EVs within just 2 or 3 years.

How is this possible...?
Click to expand...
If you stipulate ~$30k before incentives is "affordable", and 200 miles of EPA range:

It's not.

="Nubo" ...Why does an affordable 200-mile EV make economic sense to manufacture in 2017...?
Click to expand...
It doesn't
 
+1 Sounds like the mfrs are listening to salesmen:

"What will it take for me to get you behind the wheel of this beauty tooooodaaaay!" :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
If the cars themselves are more efficient, then they can go farther on a smaller battery. And if a new battery cell (likely from LG) is significantly higher energy density, then that battery will fit, and cost less than it would otherwise.

We know that 200+ mile range is possible on ~33kWh battery pack, if the car is has lower aero drag, and has a more efficient drivetrain.
 
In general, batteries tend to improve by about 7%-9% annually.
The first gen Leaf made its appearance in 2010. If their timeline is 2017, that is about a 50%-60% lowering or cost, or increase in energy density, or a bit of both.

The major players have also had time to get better at building EVs. They have learned from mistakes and quantities are increasing leading to a savings from that area as well.

I am most familiar with Tesla.
In their case, the car is 20% smaller, batteries are better, and they will scale down some of the luxury items. They will most likely taget a smaller profit margin than the 25% they currently are getting. The cost savings of their own battery plant added to the above will make for a much more affordable car.

While we aren't yet looking at numbers affordable enough so anyone can buy one, they are much more capable/affordable than the current crop.
 
Most likely they have prototypes of the needed batteries, but need to time to test them out before putting them in a vehicle (don't want another batteries that can't stand up to the heat like Nissan's original batteries). They also need to figure out how to build a production version.
 
Nubo said:
We are seeing pronouncements from Chevy, Tesla, Nissan… Seems like they're all going to be making "affordable" 200-mile EVs within just 2 or 3 years. How is this possible? Is there some major change in cost per battery kWh on the horizon?
Click to expand...
LG says they will have this technology available in 2016 at a good price point. It is possible because LG has and continues to invest in research and technology breakthoughs. They have more battery patents then anyone else. Add Hyundai to the list: http://www.hyundai-blog.com/hyundai-electric-car-battery/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I suspect Ford will announce next.
 
Nubo said:
We are seeing pronouncements from Chevy, Tesla, Nissan… Seems like they're all going to be making "affordable" 200-mile EVs within just 2 or 3 years.

How is this possible?

Is there some major change in cost per battery kWh on the horizon?
Are they counting on some huge influence on the battery marketplace from the Tesla Gigafactory?
Some new battery technology that's being kept close to the chest? Magnesium-ion? Other?

Why does an affordable 200-mile EV make economic sense to manufacture in 2017 but today we have less than half of that?
Click to expand...

Just a wild guess, but we have up to 85 kWh in a car now (and have had them in the field for 3 years). So it is more a matter of cost than anything. So to be viable similar to the Leaf in 2010 you would need the cost per kWh to be about half, and the energy density to be somewhat better.

A quick google search show density improve at roughly 11% per year, with wild claims for new anodes doing better:
http://electronicdesign.com/power/here-comes-electric-propulsion
Meanwhile cost estimates are shown to roughly halve every 8 years:
li-ion-projected-costs.png


11% per year translates to a doubling every 6-7 years, which is the time frame being discussed (2016-2017 introduction being 6-7 years after the Leaf launch). So you basically just need the industry to keep doing its normal trend, no massive breakthroughs required.

So why have we not seen 11% year longer range at each model year? My guess is that for an automotive application the requirements of testing and ruggedness are such that multi-year qualifications are required. Nissan may have chosen to not dribble longer range to us to avoid a costly re-qualification, or hell the marketing department may have worked their "magic" on it to maximize the buzz for the 2017 introduction.
 
cdub said:
Easy answer. Base Leaf now is $21k after incentives. Add $10k worth more of battery and VIOLA! :) Easy peasy. :)
Click to expand...
According to Ghosn the new battery costs & weighs the same as the old one - with double the capacity.

I expect Leaf 2 to cost the same with double the range.
 
evnow said:
cdub said:
Easy answer. Base Leaf now is $21k after incentives. Add $10k worth more of battery and VIOLA! :) Easy peasy. :)
Click to expand...
According to Ghosn the new battery costs & weighs the same as the old one - with double the capacity.

I expect Leaf 2 to cost the same with double the range.
Click to expand...

I guess this is why NMAC has been providing a $3500 rebate with purchases instead of lowering the price of the car. I could understand why the did that at the end of the 2014 model year. But when they continued it at the beginning of the 2015's, I couldn't figure out why.
 
VW joins the chorus.

Amazing how easy it is to announce the cheap 200 mile range BEV, isn't it?

That's the latest intro date I've seen for the LEAF gen 2, and I find it hard to believe Nissan will try to sell the gen one for another ~three years.

But, maybe Nissan knows more about the veracity of the announcements of its prospective competitors than I do...

Automakers in race to double range of affordable EVs

DETROIT -- Global automakers are readying a new generation of mass-market electric cars with more than double the driving range of today's Nissan Leaf, betting that technical breakthroughs by big battery suppliers such as LG Chem will jump-start demand and pull them abreast of Tesla Motors Inc.

At least four major automakers -- General Motors, Ford Motor Co., Nissan Motor Corp. and Volkswagen AG -- plan to challenge Tesla to be first to field affordable electric vehicles that will travel up to 200 miles (322 km) between charges.

That is more than twice as far as current lower-priced models such as the Nissan Leaf, which starts at $29,010. The new generation of electric cars is expected to be on the market within two to three years...

Nissan is planning to introduce a successor to the Leaf in early 2018, according to a source familiar with the program, and that model is expected to offer significantly greater range than the current Leaf, the best-selling electric car in the United States, which can go 84 miles (135 km) between charges.

The 2015 Leaf uses batteries made by a joint venture between Nissan and supplier NEC. It is not clear if the future model will shift to LG Chem, although Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn has identified LG Chem as a potential battery supplier.

VW plans to expand its current range of electrified vehicles, including a successor to the battery-powered e-Golf in 2018 with much longer range, according to two sources familiar with the program. The current e-Golf uses batteries made by Panasonic and has a range between charges of 83 miles.
Click to expand...

http://www.autonews.com/article/20150325/OEM05/150329913/automakers-in-race-to-double-range-of-affordable-evs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
My perception is that major auto manufacturers are mainly "auto assemblers", building cars with whatever they can readily source from suppliers at various price points. So if bluetooth is a commodity item from suppliers, guess what, lots of cars from everyone have bluetooth. If 50kwh battery packs are readily available, presto, 200 mile range EVs, with a variety of nameplates slapped on them.
 

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