LEAF 2 : What we know so far (2018 or later?)

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evnow said:
dhanson865 said:
I didn't say oil price, I said gas price. It apparently would surprise you to know that the price of gas locally does not have a 1:1 correlation to the price of oil at the national or global level.
Click to expand...

Data based ... what a concept !

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=18887&p=406439#p406439" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Click to expand...

garbled data, garbled interpretation.

gas prices may or may not be a significant factor but even if they are they are shadowed by:

HOV stickers (people will buy HOV vehicles ignoring the cost of gas)
State rebates/incentives (that distort the cost of the EV vs other states)

So you pretty much have to find a state or states that don't have larger forcing to cull your data from and ignore the data from the states that are heavily influenced enough to ignore gas prices.

The article in that thread purely tries to make the case that national gas prices don't affect national EV sales. I can't argue with that. I just don't think that's a useful interpretation of the available data.
 
dhanson865 said:
evnow said:
dhanson865 said:
I didn't say oil price, I said gas price. It apparently would surprise you to know that the price of gas locally does not have a 1:1 correlation to the price of oil at the national or global level.
Click to expand...

Data based ... what a concept !

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=18887&p=406439#p406439" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Click to expand...

garbled data, garbled interpretation.

gas prices may or may not be a significant factor but even if they are they are shadowed by:

HOV stickers (people will buy HOV vehicles ignoring the cost of gas)
State rebates/incentives (that distort the cost of the EV vs other states)

So you pretty much have to find a state or states that don't have larger forcing to cull your data from and ignore the data from the states that are heavily influenced enough to ignore gas prices.

The article in that thread purely tries to make the case that national gas prices don't affect national EV sales. I can't argue with that. I just don't think that's a useful interpretation of the available data.
Click to expand...
OTOH, I have seen a European (IIRR) study that compared interest in EVs based on surveys with gas prices over the course of many years, and there was a direct relationship between them: when prices went up so did interest, and vice-versa, so I doubt we've seen final proof one way or the other. Certainly the sale of larger vehicles here has increased as gas prices dropped.
 
Some very strong hints from Nissan as to when and how far.

I'm guessing the time frame is right, and it will be more than a "mild refresh".

But I doubt it will have a base range ~twice that of the 2013-2015 LEAF.

I'm guessing Nissan will produce a BEV with ~that range, but it will be from (either or both) an optional pack/efficiency upgrade on the LEAF base model, or a separate upmarket Nissan/Infiniti model.

I'm still expecting the base LEAF to be priced at ~ the same level as gen 1, which will probably limit the EPA range to ~120-140 miles.

...At the Detroit Motor Show, Nissan’s CEO Carlos Ghosn dropped a few heavy hints. Today, we came as close to confirmation as possible at this point in time. In a press conference at Nissan’s Yokohama HQ, Nissan’s dapper Japan Chief Takao Katagiri told reporters to expect “a more efficient EV with an improved battery” during Nissan’s fiscal 2016, which goes from April 1 2016 through March 31 2017. In the “a picture says more than a thousand words” dept., a slide Katagiri put up against the wall during his remarks was more forthcoming...

The slide shows a 2011 Leaf with a range of 200km, followed by a 2013 Leaf with 228km, followed by a mysterious unnamed vehicle with an unspecified, but much longer range. I obtained a copy of the slide, and measured the arrow. It is exactly twice as long as the arrow depicting the range of the 2013 Leaf. Mind you: We are in Japan, the land of high precision.

228 km (141miles) times two would be 456km, or 283 miles. Of course, this is according to the hopelessly optimistic Japanese JC08 standard. However, it is a safe assumption that the new Leaf will get double whatever range it currently gets. Did I say Leaf? The name of that new range-doubling EV is not announced. It could be Leaf, it could be anything. The car on the chart has a distinct Leaf-like silhouette, though.

Katagiri ominously and repeatedly mentioned “evolution and renewal” of Nissan’s EV program in the fiscal 2016 timeframe, leaving the door open to anything, from a mild refresh to a completely new car, or both....
Click to expand...

http://dailykanban.com/2015/01/today-heavy-hints-range-doubling-nissan-leaf-2016/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
edatoakrun said:
I obtained a copy of the slide, and measured the arrow. It is exactly twice as long as the arrow depicting the range of the 2013 Leaf. Mind you: We are in Japan, the land of high precision.
Click to expand...

http://dailykanban.com/2015/01/today-heavy-hints-range-doubling-nissan-leaf-2016/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Click to expand...

Using the picture in the linked article, I too measured the arrow. It is about double the 2013 arrow. But the 2013 is about double the 2011 arrow. What does that mean? Well it means that the left hand side does not represent zero. It could imply that rather than double the range of the 2013, it is actually just double the gain from 2011 to 2013. So this new car would have 284km range.

Of course, all of this is assuming that the arrows are to scale. My numbers further assume that instead of the left-hand side representing zero, it actually represents 172km (200km - 28km).

This timeline would imply that the 2016 Leaf will remain unchanged from the 2015. I was expecting MYs 2016/2017 to be a minor refresh (maybe with a slightly better range), and the Leaf 2 to arrive as a MY 2018. Maybe they will skip the refresh and turn over a new Leaf in 2017. Whom do we have to thank for this? The Tesla Model III? GM Bolt? Simply better tech available?
 
GetOffYourGas said:
Using the picture in the linked article, I too measured the arrow. It is about double the 2013 arrow. But the 2013 is about double the 2011 arrow. What does that mean? Well it means that the left hand side does not represent zero. It could imply that rather than double the range of the 2013, quoactually just double the gain from 2011 to 2013. So this new car would have 284km range.

Of course, all of this is assuming that the arrows are to scale. My numbers further assume that instead of the left-hand side representing zero, it actually represents 172km (200km - 28km).

This timeline would imply that the 2016 Leaf will remain unchanged from the 2015. I was expecting MYs 2016/2017 to be a minor refresh (maybe with a slightly better range), and the Leaf 2 to arrive as a MY 2018. Maybe they will skip the refresh and turn over a new Leaf in 2017. Whom do we have to thank for this? The Tesla Model III? GM Bolt? Simply better tech available?
Click to expand...


I still secretly hope that this current leaf will continue with upgrades. Maybe expand the pack into the floor of the trunk which is lower than it has to be, restyle everything on the outside but keep the basic shape and chassis and work to bring costs down to the pre incentive price of $24k with 100 mile range and release a brand new second gen BEV to sell along side it at the $30-$35K price range with double the range.

VW did it with the golf (might have been Canada only) the 2005 golf became the 2006 (years may be off by a bit) "city golf" then the rabbit came out at a premium price. Both sold pretty well. They could also borrow that name, "city leaf" sounds good.

All this would need is the us plant keeps making the city leaf and the Japanese plant can be retooled for the new one or move the old one to Mexico and make new ones in the US.
 
Sh.... That doesn't help me much knowing if I'll buy a new one now. :cry: Being sure it would be fall 2016 I would wait. Mid 2017 is a bit long.
 
dhanson865 said:
garbled data, garbled interpretation.
Click to expand...

Oh really ? If the reason is what you give below - your assertion has little credibility.

gas prices may or may not be a significant factor but even if they are they are shadowed by:

HOV stickers (people will buy HOV vehicles ignoring the cost of gas)
State rebates/incentives (that distort the cost of the EV vs other states)

So you pretty much have to find a state or states that don't have larger forcing to cull your data from and ignore the data from the states that are heavily influenced enough to ignore gas prices.

The article in that thread purely tries to make the case that national gas prices don't affect national EV sales. I can't argue with that. I just don't think that's a useful interpretation of the available data.
Click to expand...

All those other stuff don't change month-to-month.
 
So what an interested buyer should do? Buy now and profit from incentives or wait two years but not being sure incentives will still be there?
 
claude274 said:
So what an interested buyer should do? Buy now and profit from incentives or wait two years but not being sure incentives will still be there?
Click to expand...
Lease for 2 years, buy used, or wait 2 years. Buying new outright at the moment looks pretty foolish to me at the moment
 
Moof said:
claude274 said:
So what an interested buyer should do? Buy now and profit from incentives or wait two years but not being sure incentives will still be there?
Click to expand...
Lease for 2 years, buy used, or wait 2 years. Buying new outright at the moment looks pretty foolish to me at the moment
Click to expand...

In the ICE world, the best tactic was to buy a low mileage, used car, hopefully still under warranty. The question in doing this with a Leaf is whether there is a reasonably priced, long range battery available for the MY you buy. The only traction batteries available for a Leaf at this time are short range and that question is still to be answered. So far we only have PR vapor promises from Nissan...everything's gotta be a secret with theses guys you know...jeezes!

Additionally, I will be very surprised if the Republican Congress extends EV purchase incentives; I hope I'm wrong; but, I don't hold out much hope or trust politicians that is so dependent on the hydrocarbons industries for campaign contributions.

I don't know all your conditions of purchase; but, if you can wait, that's what I would do until things shake out, especially if you can save money by doing so.
 
fotajoye said:
<snip>
Additionally, I will be very surprised if the Republican Congress extends EV purchase incentives; I hope I'm wrong; but, I don't hold out much hope or trust politicians that is so dependent on the hydrocarbons industries for campaign contributions.
<snip>
Click to expand...
Not an issue until 2017 at the earliest, as any repeal of the current legislation would be vetoed, and by 2017 some of the companies (Nissan, GM, possibly Tesla) may be reaching the 200k limit where the subsidies begin to sunset. By that point we should have at least some BEVs with ~200 miles EPA range that sell for around the mid to upper $30k mark without subsidy, and/or 150 miles EPA @ $30k ditto, so the cars should be able to stand on their own. Of course, if gas prices stay low until then that may not be the case.
 
GRA said:
fotajoye said:
<snip>
Additionally, I will be very surprised if the Republican Congress extends EV purchase incentives; I hope I'm wrong; but, I don't hold out much hope or trust politicians that is so dependent on the hydrocarbons industries for campaign contributions.
<snip>
Click to expand...
Not an issue until 2017 at the earliest, as any repeal of the current legislation would be vetoed, and by 2017 some of the companies (Nissan, GM, possibly Tesla) may be reaching the 200k limit where the subsidies begin to sunset. By that point we should have at least some BEVs with ~200 miles EPA range that sell for around the mid to upper $30k mark without subsidy, and/or 150 miles EPA @ $30k ditto, so the cars should be able to stand on their own. Of course, if gas prices stay low until then that may not be the case.
Click to expand...
I hope it all works that way; but, it would be even better if the Cream Puffs we call Democrats could keep it going. Time is avancing and hydrocarbons are polluting the World at an ever increasing rate. Speeding up the transition to EVs and renewables is the best offset we have presently.
 
I leased a 2012 SL and the lease is up in early June 2015.
When I spoke to the dealer I leased from, I told him I was looking for a 200 mile per charge car like the Chevy Bolt or Tesla Model 3.
He said that my timing was good and to hold on making any decisions now. He said they just saw a video of the next gen leaf and it would have a range around 200 miles per charge.
He did not commit to the release date, only that "my timing was good".
Time will tell...
 
Rule 1 through 100: Do not ever, under any circumstances, without exception, believe anything that a dealer tells you along any lines such as those!

dstar58 said:
He said that my timing was good and to hold on making any decisions now. He said they just saw a video of the next gen leaf and it would have a range around 200 miles per charge.
He did not commit to the release date, only that "my timing was good".
Click to expand...
 
claude274 said:
So what an interested buyer should do? Buy now and profit from incentives or wait two years but not being sure incentives will still be there?
Click to expand...

I was recently facing the same question, and I decided to buy now. I did this primarily to take advantage of the $10,000 tax credit ($7,500 federal + $2,500 State of California), that will (likely) be disappearing in the next few years. The question, for both you and me: Is the advantage of a, say, 150-mile range in 2017 or 2018 worth paying an extra $7,500 at that time?

Additionally, I am now using about 70-80% less gasoline while only adding 10% to my electric bill, so the economics are working out nicely for us. I also suspect that our maintenance and repair costs will drop substantially, too, but I don't have enough data to support this hope, yet.

I have a 36-mile round trip commute, with free level-1 charging at work, so my 2015 Leaf could easily serve my needs for the next decade, maybe longer. (We also have ICE vehicles for longer trips, when needed.) Your situation and needs may be quite different.

Hope this is helpful.
 
MartinChico said:
claude274 said:
So what an interested buyer should do? Buy now and profit from incentives or wait two years but not being sure incentives will still be there?
Click to expand...

I was recently facing the same question, and I decided to buy now. I did this primarily to take advantage of the $10,000 tax credit ($7,500 federal + $2,500 State of California), that will (likely) be disappearing in the next few years. The question, for both you and me: Is the advantage of a, say, 150-mile range in 2017 or 2018 worth paying an extra $7,500 at that time?

Additionally, I am now using about 70-80% less gasoline while only adding 10% to my electric bill, so the economics are working out nicely for us. I also suspect that our maintenance and repair costs will drop substantially, too, but I don't have enough data to support this hope, yet.

I have a 36-mile round trip commute, with free level-1 charging at work, so my 2015 Leaf could easily serve my needs for the next decade, maybe longer. (We also have ICE vehicles for longer trips, when needed.) Your situation and needs may be quite different.

Hope this is helpful.
Click to expand...

I was in a similar boat. Nissan was offering $5000 to buy out my lease. I have a 4.5-mile round-trip commute. And I rarely drive more than 25 miles in a day. However, when I do, I drive 250+ miles (my family is all downstate or out of state). The Leaf has cut my gasoline bill in half. I figure that my current Leaf will continue to do so for at least another 10 years. I came to realize that the main appeal of a 200-mile BEV was the novelty of showing up at a family member's house in a BEV after a long journey. Most of them have never seen my Leaf since they don't visit me, and I'm not about to drive it 250 miles. And yes, a 200-mile BEV would certainly help on a handful of shorter journeys, but frankly replacing my hybrid with a PHEV or EREV would save more gasoline than replacing the 80-mile BEV with a 200-mile BEV.
 
Everyone's situation is different. In my case, I have had to trade cars with my wife on a number of occasions because my travel needs for the day (I use my car for work related travel) were beyond my current range. This is especially a problem in the winter when my range is reduced to 50 miles (no heat) or 35 miles with heat.
A car that could consistently go 100+ miles would work well for us.
That's why I'm seeking a longer range car.
 
dstar58 said:
Everyone's situation is different. In my case, I have had to trade cars with my wife on a number of occasions because my travel needs for the day (I use my car for work related travel) were beyond my current range. This is especially a problem in the winter when my range is reduced to 50 miles (no heat) or 35 miles with heat.
A car that could consistently go 100+ miles would work well for us.
That's why I'm seeking a longer range car.
Click to expand...

We are in the same situation. My wife is a school nurse and drives to and from the schools as they call her with issues. So her day varies from 15 miles to 100+ miles, but usually in the 40 mile range which is close in winter with snow and with the heat on. A couple of times she has come to my work to swap out cars and I drive home the Leaf with a low battery warning and see she went about 50 miles. Then of course we have after school running kids places as well, if we get to charge at home (L2 with 6 kw charger) it works, but otherwise it's back to the diesel TDI.
 
evnow said:
In this thread I'll attempt to collate all known information about LEAF generation 2. By known I'm talking about information attributed to a named Nissan executive. I'll add speculative information at the bottom.

- Just after March 2017. Infiniti EV comes earlier in 2017.
- Will have a greatly increased range. 300 kms (186 miles) mentioned as competitive with FCEV Nissan's domestic rivals are developing. Infiniti EV sedan could have greater range.
- Will be a hatchback with conventional looks sporting brand’s new V Motion plunging V-shaped front fascia and the floating roof evoked by blacked-out pillars, as seen in the redesigned Rogue crossover.
- Double the range of current Gen Leaf

Sources : http://www.autonews.com/article/20140507/OEM05/140509845/nissans-next-evs-more-mainstream-better-battery" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Speculation ...
- 150 EPA miles for $35k. Based on a survey Nissan sent.
- May have multiple battery options.
- Will be available in 2016 as a MY17 vehicle.

Sources :
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=15708" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=55&t=17768" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Click to expand...

Hi,

I am interested in buying a leaf but was wondering if there are going to be major design changes (looks wise) for the 2016 model year that will be out this June or July. Do you have any idea about it?
http://www.autoexpress.co.uk/nissan/leaf/88344/nissan-leaf-to-get-sharp-new-look-and-range-boost" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thank you!
 
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