Enphase Stock Price Dive and Outlook for Install

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JimSouCal

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Feb 8, 2011
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Wondering here.... From a technical standpoint, I have come to prefer the Enphase to Solar Edge, and in particular, the new product offerings in the pipeline.

That said, the stock price of Enphase has plummeted...the 52 week range is down from $15.25 to $1.82.

My friend is convinced they will go bankrupt, and I'd be foolish to proceed with using their equipment on my upcoming install...

The ease of design, scalability, availability of a standard plan to submit to the City of Los Angeles, and several other reasons lead me to want to proceed.

Perhaps a player like Siemens will just purchase them? Any insights from the collective intelligence appreciated....
 
Wow, I was regretting selling my shares last fall right before it jumped from $10 to $15, worked out OK ;)

For a self install it's hard to beat Enphase IMO.

Sure would be sad if they went bankrupt considering they sold $100 million last quarter and their products are great.
 
Of my three current PV proposals I'm considering only 1 uses enphase. One is edge, one is Sunpower's microinverter/panel combo (really, their micro inverter pre-installed on their panel). When I previously got quotes a couple of years ago when getting my LEAF all my proposals were enphase...
 
Had a quick google, looks like both price and efficiency advantages with optimizers, like solar edge, see:

http://www.pv-magazine.com/archive/articles/beitrag/microinverters-vs-optimizers-_100016637/618/#axzz3rJkAAHrv
 
DNAinaGoodWay said:
Had a quick google, looks like both price and efficiency advantages with optimizers, like solar edge, see:

http://www.pv-magazine.com/archive/articles/beitrag/microinverters-vs-optimizers-_100016637/618/#axzz3rJkAAHrv
This head-to-head study show Enphase inverters producing 2.5% more than SolarEdge inverters.

But SolarEdge is about to release their new HD-Wave central inverters with no electrolytic capacitors and efficiency over 99% which is also compatible with Tesla's new PowerWall. If the price and reliability is right, this new inverter could be very successful.
 
DNAinaGoodWay said:
What's driving this? Are the early models failing, incurring large warranty losses?
Yes, the failure rate of the M190s is quite high. The M215s and M250s are holding up well.
DNAinaGoodWay said:
I'm more concerned for my own warranty if Enphase goes under, so I hope they survive.
You're not alone!
 
Seems like SolarEdge's lower price is hurting Enphase by stealing market share.

With features, reliability and performance very similar, it comes down to price.
 
drees said:
Seems like SolarEdge's lower price is hurting Enphase by stealing market share.

With features, reliability and performance very similar, it comes down to price.

Last time I checked up to average residential-style installation, 6-7kW, the price was comparable between the 2.
 
SolarEdge has come out a couple grand cheaper in quotes I've seen recently for systems in the 6-8kW size.
 
I got an impression that installers are pushing micros as they are somewhat easier to install, so given the overall solar illiteracy amongst customers the effect of price differential on the stock price is a moot point.
 
So if it's not price, why is SolarEdge stealing market share from Enphase? How is it better than Enphase aside from price?
 
drees said:
So if it's not price, why is SolarEdge stealing market share from Enphase? How is it better than Enphase aside from price?

Well, it looks like the stock price slide is in fact price related, they had to cut the prices by 19% to stay competitive.
 
drees said:
So if it's not price, why is SolarEdge stealing market share from Enphase? How is it better than Enphase aside from price?
I don't think it is... The redundancy of have many micro inverters would appear to me to be an advantage in reliability... But of course, it'd be great to have an expert opinion....
 
JimSouCal said:
drees said:
So if it's not price, why is SolarEdge stealing market share from Enphase? How is it better than Enphase aside from price?
I don't think it is... The redundancy of have many micro inverters would appear to me to be an advantage in reliability... But of course, it'd be great to have an expert opinion....
One thing that will/is impacting this industry is the new 2014 NEC 690.12 Rapid Shutdown requirements that require DC circuits to go below 30 volts within 10 seconds when shut down. One way that this has been achieved for a long time is with microinverters and optimizers. This requirement might help bring the cost premium of micro inverters/optimizers down vs installing relays/etc. like Midnite Solar's Birdhouse system.
 
JimSouCal said:
I don't think it is... The redundancy of have many micro inverters would appear to me to be an advantage in reliability... But of course, it'd be great to have an expert opinion....
As far as reliability (reliability engineer here), it depends upon how you define success. If success is ALL of your panels producing, then microinverters don't give you redundancy; they give you multiple single point failures (1 per panel!) If success is ANY of your panels producing, then yeah that's redundancy. With an optimizer/string inverter combo, you have the highest number of potential failures, and so the worst case for reliability (depending upon the actual failure models of each of course).

I think realistically most people would want all their panels working to declare "success" - although they'd probably appreciate that if one microinverter goes down they still have at least (n-1)/n of their system working while they wait for replacement. And I think they'd appreciate that although you might have to replace a few microinverters over 30 years, you're pretty much guaranteed to have to replace a string inverter at least once over the same period. Those considerations led me to go with microinverters for my system, although the news that the Enphase warranty might be in jeopardy is certainly troubling.
 
fooljoe said:
And I think they'd appreciate that although you might have to replace a few microinverters over 30 years, you're pretty much guaranteed to have to replace a string inverter at least once over the same period.
I would have agreed with you a month ago, but it appears that may change within the next month or so, depending upon the type of life SolarEdge can achieve with their new technology. Still, a single central inverter means a single point of failure for the entire system.
 
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