Leaf buying rationale: TCO or mid-life crisis

The only other car i've owned that gives me the goosebumps is the uber-cool 1993 Acura Integra (bought new).

So why did i plunk down for the Leaf? The pioneers overcame great hardships and setbacks (range limit, charging time) because they knew there was a better life ahead.

TCO calculation:
Say gas is at $3 per gallon (it's actually averaging $3.50 in the Southwest. We just finished a road trip). A good car nowadays gets 30 mpg. That translates to $0.10 per mile.

The Leaf is at $0.03 per mile (assumptions of electric costs at $0.12 per kWh and driving efficiency of 4 miles/kWh)

The Leaf costs ~ $30 K (rounded off, after the federal rebate). A good comparable ICE car (Nissan Altima, Rogue, Juke) costs ~ $23 K.

All else being equal, the break even cost of the Leaf then is 100,000 miles ($7 K savings in gas). As gas prices go up (with money printing accelerating all over the world) the break even might be much quicker.

Or is the Leaf the new red sports car?

Moderators: It appears i created this in the wrong sub forum. Please move it to the appropriate section. Thanks..

pjoseph said:

Or is the Leaf the new red sports car?

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Yes. The "new red sports car" is the peppy "green" car! (And I'm also considered "middle aged".)

Your assumption of 4 miles per kWh may be a bit high, depending on how you drive. Measured at the wall plug, I'm averaging about 3.2 mi/kWh. I don't race around in my LEAF, but I do enjoy the power occasionally, and I also drive freeways occasionally, and higher average speeds reduce energy efficiency. Especially if the Integra fit your driving personality well, you'll enjoy the exhilarating, smooth power from the get-go that the EV power train provides.

OTOH, if you average around 45 mph on local roadways and you value efficiency over g forces, you can easily get 4 mi/kWh measured at the wall plug, as many members here do.

From my point of view, the car has been both a very fun and involving hobby and a green and low cost choice that goes well with my home solar panels. It has also been fascinating and fun to be part of the early adopter group. I recommend that you get involved with local LEAF or EV groups, meet regularly and show off your EVs at local events.

Whatever your decision, cheers and good luck with your choice. And report back here often.

"All else being equal, the break even cost of the Leaf then is 100,000 miles ($7 K savings in gas)."

You forgot to factor in the savings on oil changes and tuneups.

N1ghtrider said:

"All else being equal, the break even cost of the Leaf then is 100,000 miles ($7 K savings in gas)."

You forgot to factor in the savings on oil changes and tuneups.

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Those savings pay for the battery replacement at 150,000+

[/quote]
Those savings pay for the battery replacement at 150,000+[/quote]


Another reason I leased.

pjoseph said:

All else being equal, the break even cost of the Leaf then is 100,000 miles ($7 K savings in gas). As gas prices go up (with money printing accelerating all over the world) the break even might be much quicker.

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Any TCO projection ought to include some estimate of future oil price increases such as the above from http://www.urbanplanet.org/forums/gallery/image/561-historical-crude-oil-price-chart/, and of future electricity price increases - which are usually projected to be considerably slower.

Not that TCO or Red Miata was my rationale. Mainly it's: if you can afford to buy a BMW or SUV then you can afford to buy a Leaf, and if you can afford not to burn up your children's inheritance then you ought not burn it up.

N1ghtrider said:

"All else being equal, the break even cost of the Leaf then is 100,000 miles ($7 K savings in gas)."

You forgot to factor in the savings on oil changes and tuneups.

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...and mufflers and catalytic converters and O2 sensors and automatic transmission fixes (or clutches) and alternators and water pumps (okay, the LEAF has one too, but I suspect it's not quite as heavily used as the one in an ICE) and timing belts/chains and head gaskets and ...

The basic idea is that an ICE is a far more complex piece of machinery than an electric motor driven vehicle, so there is a lot more that could break. Having said that, to be fair, some of the technology inside the LEAF is not quite as mature as than of an ICE, so there may be somewhat of a rough ride ahead and some replacement parts might be fairly expensive.

But I do think it's safe to say that over time the simplicity of an EV is going to move that crossover point up in time.

Well, for me.. I'd say it was mid-life-crisis. I'm 36 years old, lost most of my hair already, starting to feel old. The Leaf was the coolest car I could think of to buy. I've had it for 9 months and I still think it is the coolest car I've ever owned, by far.

Incidentally, I leased mine too.. But I have every intention at this point of purchasing it at the end of the lease. There is nothing else announced by any manufacturer that looks more attractive to me. Being the residual value on my Leaf is like $15,000 I would say that is too good of a deal to pass up! I can refinance that at the end of my lease and my car payment will drop from $400 a month to $200 a month. At the end of 8 years of ownership, it might be time for a new battery. Since I take excellent care of my cars, I will expect my Leaf to still look and feel brand new at that point. So a new battery will be a worthwhile investment.

my from the wall info in my sig is very accurate but does not include the benefit of public charging which is still all free and my driving is much more efficient than most here since the mix is 70 town/30% freeway and i have been using efficient driving techniques for several years now.

but the savings is most def there. last year i used $323 in electricity (hmm have typo in sig?) drove 11,600+ miles. well, it was April when my Prius got to $320 in gas so we can guess what happened afterward and that was after 3804 miles to boot. add to that, a $70 oil change and filters for $32 (bought online and self installed which saved me over $40) but i dont count that because it makes it too lopsided (as if it already wasnt!)

so ya, it does save to drive a Leaf... and oil prices have jumped over $100 a barrel. for the first time ever, we exceed a half trillion in exports in 2011 and 2012 will probably be higher despite a drop in consumption in 2011 that is expected to continue in 2012.

so that gas cost? it might need to be readjusted.

The Leaf doesn't have to beat the TCO for me -- it just has to be close enough so that the difference in price is a donation to green living I'm willing to make. We said years ago that our break-even was cost +$5K to feel like we were moving the country in the direction it needed to go. The Leaf plus incentives beat that certainly.

Appreciate all the insightful replies so far. Everyone has a story.

Yes, i made several broad, sweeping assumptions (gas prices, maintenance costs) in my original TCO postulation. Here's hoping that the Leaf will do well in the longevity record. Early indicators are promising.

Another tangent to this thread (or maybe time to start a new one). i've noticed that very few women dig this car. Usually the range limit throws them off. They must be wired differently :mrgreen: 10 years after it's introduction, there are a LOT of Toyota Priuses here in Austin. The dealer also mentioned that many a 40-ish old woman gets excited by the Nissan Juke.

pjoseph said:

i've noticed that very few women dig this car.

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That's interesting, and a shame because of this:

http://www.wbko.com/news/headlines/Urban_Legend_At_Gas_Station_Proves_True_136662508.html?ref=508

It turns out that this happens statistically to women more than men because women are more likely to get back into their cars while refueling to stay warm, and the resultant static charge buildup they get from sliding along the seat can turn dangerous when they touch the nozzle.

There's TWO more reasons to like EVs! They won't explode when you touch the charging cable and you don't have to stand out in the cold while it's charging!

It's an interesting discussion, but I have to say I don't care at all what the break even is. I bought my Leaf because I've wanted an electric car for many years and it was the first one offered for sale to anyone on a broad scale. It simply can't be compared to a "comparable car" because there aren't any (except the Focus which I still can't buy.) With the Federal rebate, I think it is a fantastic deal for a brand new electric car. The fact that we also added solar panels to the roof of our house just makes it all that much sweeter.

pjoseph said:

Another tangent to this thread (or maybe time to start a new one). i've noticed that very few women dig this car. Usually the range limit throws them off. They must be wired differently :mrgreen: 10 years after it's introduction, there are a LOT of Toyota Priuses here in Austin. The dealer also mentioned that many a 40-ish old woman gets excited by the Nissan Juke.

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If you are referring to the whole electric car thing, I would agree. But if you are referring to the body style, I would disagree. I have had several women stop me in parking lots to compliment me on how cute my car is. When I began to talk to them about it, they had no idea it was electric powered.

Now, my wife drives the Leaf all of the time on the weekends when I'm not using it and she likes it better than her 2010 Prius IV. She had the opportunity to get herself a Leaf too but decided to stick with the Prius because she didn't feel comfortable with the range. She feels comfortable driving it on the weekends because she is usually going only 20 or 30 miles round trip. If she had to drive it to work that is 40 miles round trip, but adding her other common pitstops could bring it up to 60 or more miles per day. She doesn't feel comfortable going 60 miles in a Leaf. Keep in mind that she is a lead-foot and always, always, always has to run the climate control.

adric22 said:

Now, my wife drives the Leaf all of the time on the weekends when I'm not using it and she likes it better than her 2010 Prius IV. She had the opportunity to get herself a Leaf too but decided to stick with the Prius because she didn't feel comfortable with the range. She feels comfortable driving it on the weekends because she is usually going only 20 or 30 miles round trip. If she had to drive it to work that is 40 miles round trip, but adding her other common pitstops could bring it up to 60 or more miles per day. She doesn't feel comfortable going 60 miles in a Leaf. Keep in mind that she is a lead-foot and always, always, always has to run the climate control.

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why you talking about my SO?

adric22 said:

If you are referring to the whole electric car thing, I would agree. But if you are referring to the body style, I would disagree. I have had several women stop me in parking lots to compliment me on how cute my car is. When I began to talk to them about it, they had no idea it was electric powered.

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Yes indeed. Thanks for clearing it up. The Leaf design (except for the Navi) is futuristic (out of the Jetsons?) and is surely a head turner.

But range anxiety is an issue with almost all of the women i know. Wonder if they will ever get over it. Are all women wired this way (searching for comfort and security). Guess i hardly know any adventurous types.

Leaf buying decision was based on using a DOMESTIC energy source! As in, independence for rising foreign oil prices. And the plus is, the energy source and production are the solar panels on my roof. So I control the cost of energy, not some guy in the middle east.

TCO or mid-life crisis? Neither. My reasons are the same as those PatricioEV and GPowers mentioned:

PatricioEV said:

I bought my Leaf because I've wanted an electric car for many years and it was the first one offered for sale to anyone on a broad scale.

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GPowers said:

Leaf buying decision was based on using a DOMESTIC energy source! As in, independence from rising foreign oil prices. And the plus is, the energy source and production are the solar panel on my roof. So I control the cost of energy, not some guy in the middle east.

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TCO is irrelevant since the LEAF isn't remotely cost-effective at present: a gas-sipping used car would be vastly cheaper in TCO even if gas was at $5 a gallon. And at age 58, having retired at age 45, I am well past any sort of "mid-life crisis".

We women may be outnumbered but we are by no means unrepresented!

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