"No Market Need" for longer range EVs - Nissan's Mark Perry

Mark Perry is quoted by Edmunds Auto Observer as saying that there is "no market need" for EVs that get hundreds of miles between charges. He cites extensive evidence from the EV Project, from Nissan's internal data (Carwings, obviously), blogs and the 1,500 member LEAF owner panel as supporting this conclusion.

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While I agree that the average daily drive of about 37 miles that Mark quotes does represent my own usage, I certainly want an EV with a longer range.

It strikes me that it is circular reasoning to draw the conclusion that EV drivers don't need a longer range from data from a population of drivers of an EV that currently has the range of the LEAF. We have self-selected into a statistical sample that is pre-defined as a group that can manage with the LEAF's current range. I'm not surprised at what he said, though, since any company spokesperson is going to frame the argument in terms that support his product's performance characteristics.

I concur on all accounts! A 50 percent increase in range would eliminate 80 percent of the trips that we now have to take in the ICE...

Boomer23 said:

While I agree that the average daily drive of about 37 miles that Mark quotes does represent my own usage, I certainly want an EV with a longer range.
It strikes me that it is circular reasoning to draw the conclusion that EV drivers don't need a longer range from data from a population of drivers of an EV that currently has the range of the LEAF. We have self-selected into a statistical sample that is pre-defined as a group that can manage with the LEAF's current range. I'm not surprised at what he said, though, since any company spokesperson is going to frame the argument in terms that support his product's performance characteristics.

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I agree that their is a huge need for more range. While my Leaf gets much more use than my ICE, I could not due without my ICE because of the limited range of my Leaf. More range would eliminate my need for the ICE. Nissan is limiting its market potential until it`s Leaf has a better range

As long as extended range EVs are not available, it cannot be a primary substitute for the ICE car. And not everyone can afford to have 2 cars. Most people only prefer to own 1 car. So there IS a market need for longer range EVs, even if the longer range need is only occasional.

Volusiano said:

And not everyone can afford to have 2 cars. Most people only prefer to own 1 car. So there IS a market need for longer range EVs, even if the longer range need is only occasional.

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60% of American households have 2 or more cars.

Yes, we all "want" longer range EVs - but battery technology is what it is today. There is no "need" to have 300 mile range EVs for $15K before large scale EV adoption can start.

It is like saying no one needs a faster processor, or a bigger hard drive. Ha! There may be some justification for it, but nothing will prevent manufacturers from competing. There will be a race to improvement. It's arguably one of the best byproducts of capitalism.

It seems to me you would only say this kind of thing if (a) your battery capacity increase plans were going awry and you wanted to adjust people's expectations; or (b) you saw a lessening of demand for Leaf 1.0 and were concerned about people waiting on the sidelines for v.2.

Apple has spoiled consumers with their rapid pace of innovation. The waits have not been long. This looks like a trial balloon to insure that everyone who wants a reasonably priced EV steps up and buys Leaf 1.0.

Regardless of an "actual" versus a "percevied" need, Tesla is comming out with the Model S Signature editions starting around Mid 2012, so 300 mile range EVs will be here within a year. Of course at nearly $90K, its in a whole different market segment than the Leaf.

The appropriate question is, what mileage per full charge it acceptable for a driver and not how much they drive?

For my 62 mile/day drive to work, the current LEAF works. But I would be more comfortable if LEAF gives 100 miles in (almost) worst case scenario (e.g. cold day, freeway driving, etc.). But unfortunately, for my driving style, 75 miles is the max on normal conditions. So I always feel, I am on the edge and don't plan to take a detour. An 150 mile advertised option will make it more attractive for me.

For my wife, with 30 miles daily drive, the current configuration is more than enough and might even be preferable from cost perspective.

So I think, like Tesla, Nissan should give couple of options with battery capacity.

Perry seems to have a lot of data to back him up.. then again he may be throwing up radar chaff. He owns the market now so why not confuse the competition... then again he could say our research says people are willing to pay a lot more for a 50kwh pack

People may want more range, but are they willing to pay for it?.. a way for Nissan to test this is to offer an optional add-on pack that extends range.. perhaps they can do this for the next model refresh in a year or two.

+1 to Boomer.

TomT said:

I concur on all accounts! A 50 percent increase in range would eliminate 80 percent of the trips that we now have to take in the ICE...

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But would all of you want to pay $12,000 more, for a 40 kWh, 4,000 lb. LEAF, with 50% more range?

If so, would you still want to, if DC fast charge locations were located wherever you might need them, to accomplish longer trips?

I'm much more concerned with recharge opportunities than range on one charge. Longer range would be nice, and as batteries slowly get cheaper and lighter, maybe 150 or 200 miles will become the standard, in 10 or 20 years. But that battery technology is still far in the future, and building overpriced, overweight BEVs, just to increase range, is not presently a viable mass-market proposition, IMO.

BEVs don't have to match ICEVs on fuel range.

They will replace ICEVs because they do everything else, better.

edatoakrun said:

But would all of you want to pay $12,000 more, for a 40 kWh, 4,000 lb. LEAF, with 50% more range?

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You have a good point. I'd guess that the answer would vary. Some would, some wouldn't. I would probably have chosen the Gen 1 LEAF at its price point at the time I made my decision to lease the car, last summer. Now, with 6 months experience, I'd choose the longer range, more expensive option for its ability to get me to West LA and North SD County without need to recharge.

For me, this affirms others' suggestions that Nissan make various battery options available in future models.

EDIT: I just did the math and it appears that the extra $12k on the purchase price would have raised my monthly lease payment by about $360, to a final monthly payment of $773. Yeeouch! Your point is even more cogent, edatoakrun.

But does Mark Perry's statement really mean that Nissan doesn't want to build longer range EVs as the battery prices decline in the future? I'm not sure. EV makers definitely have a stake in bringing EV prices down as government incentives are withdrawn in the future. I'd like to see them offer a range of battery sizes at a range of price points, as others have said.

I found Mark's comment that we think we drive further than we do interesting. While waiting for my LEAF to arrive, I started logging my norrmal trips. True, my usual trips were shorter than I had thought. Not because of traffic tie-ups, but probably boredom from traveling the same routes.j

But, I would still like a bit more range.

I think we would all like more range, but do we need it? Almost every post here says I have enough, but I would like more. Well, you can have more if it is a two seater, smaller car. You can have more if you pay for a bigger battery pack. you can have more if you simply drive slower.

This is first generation, and it does the job well. The data backs that up. Don't fix what isn't broken. Re-design and re-tooling for options takes time, and costs money. Adding options will happen, but for now simply get more cars on the road! Way to go Nissan!

edatoakrun said:

would all of you want to pay $12,000 more, for a 40 kWh, 4,000 lb. LEAF, with 50% more range?

If so, would you still want to, if DC fast charge locations were located wherever you might need them, to accomplish longer trips?

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IMHO, a good DC quick charge network would be better than a bigger battery...

tps said:

edatoakrun said:

would all of you want to pay $12,000 more, for a 40 kWh, 4,000 lb. LEAF, with 50% more range?

If so, would you still want to, if DC fast charge locations were located wherever you might need them, to accomplish longer trips?

Click to expand...

IMHO, a good DC quick charge network would be better than a bigger battery...

Click to expand...

+1

Boomer23 said:

Mark Perry is quoted by Edmunds Auto Observer as saying that there is "no market need" for EVs that get hundreds of miles between charges.

It strikes me that it is circular reasoning to draw the conclusion that EV drivers don't need a longer range from data from a population of drivers of an EV that currently has the range of the LEAF. We have self-selected into a statistical sample that is pre-defined as a group that can manage with the LEAF's current range. I'm not surprised at what he said, though, since any company spokesperson is going to frame the argument in terms that support his product's performance characteristics.

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Heh, Heh. Well stated Boomer. I agree with you. For "hundreds" he may be on to something but a few more miles of range would be desireable... say, 1.5x the 70 freeway miles I currently get (68-73 mph with full a/c and radio). It would cost but that's why the option would exist. Some would buy it who might otherwise not buy the car at all. I'd say, offer different sized packs and let the buyer pay more for the extended range if they want it. Why not? All of the huge engineering has already been done. A quick DC charge would probably also suffice but I sure don't see them anywhere in San Diego yet.

Malcolm

No, of course not. But a few years from now it is unlikely we will have to. I interpreted his statement as more of a "never need it in the future" than a "need it today" pronouncement, which I disagree with.

edatoakrun said:

TomT said:

I concur on all accounts! A 50 percent increase in range would eliminate 80 percent of the trips that we now have to take in the ICE...

Click to expand...

But would all of you want to pay $12,000 more, for a 40 kWh, 4,000 lb. LEAF, with 50% more range?

Click to expand...

Why would he say that with the rumors of a 200 mile range EV being produced by Nissan/Infiniti swirling about?

If those rumors dont stop they will kill present sales of product.