2015 Mar. Plugin Sales Discussion : Leaf 1817 - Total 10,341

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evnow

evnow

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 22, 2010
Messages
11,480
Location
Seattle, WA
Better in March - still down from last year.

Model S : 2450*
Leaf : 1817
Fit 500e : 1310 !!!

Another big surprise ...

Pure Electric Car Market Share vs PHEV In March*
1.BEV – 6,949 – 67%
2.PHEV – 3,392– 33%
Click to expand...
 
What is causing the year over year downtown?
Competition? BMW I3, VW, Kia Soul EV? I know I stopped recommending the Leaf and have been recommending the Kia because of longer range.
People waiting for the second gen Volt? I'm excited about this too. We might get a nice price surprise.
 
Increased competition is part of it.

I expect part is also that the Leaf is getting a bit long in the tooth.
It hasn't suffered as big a slump as the Volt.

It will be interesting to see how April turns on ut.
 
Doesn't look too encouraging for Tesla based on their 2015 Q1 results (4700) from InsideEvs.
The 2015 forecast is 55K units, and with about 60% domestic (33K) the Q1 should have
been closer to 8K units domestic. Yes, potentially the Model X will contribute in the last
two quarters, but with a history of Tesla delays the issue is how much. Still though, the Q1
volume indicates a potential domestic decline in the Model S sales. Could this indicate, as some
have expressed about the Leaf, that the Model S may be getting a little "long-in-the-tooth"?
 
Not a surprise, but only 639 Volts sold in March... I suspect that most are waiting for Gen 2 to come out later this year... It likely means you will see some great clear-them-out deals on 2015s though...
 
lorenfb said:
Doesn't look too encouraging for Tesla based on their 2015 Q1 results (4700) from InsideEvs.
The 2015 forecast is 55K units, and with about 60% domestic (33K) the Q1 should have
been closer to 8K units domestic. Yes, potentially the Model X will contribute in the last
two quarters, but with a history of Tesla delays the issue is how much. Still though, the Q1
volume indicates a potential domestic decline in the Model S sales. Could this indicate, as some
have expressed about the Leaf, that the Model S may be getting a little "long-in-the-tooth"?
Click to expand...

I'll wait till the numbers come out from Tesla.
However, even if InsideEVs production guesses are right, the production will be ramping up throughout the year and Model X will also add to the numbers.

Unlike most other cars, Tesla makes a fair amount of substantial improvements as they become available.
In my state, the 85D are selling faster than they can make them. The Store here increased the size of the Tesla Fleet by almost 20% in March alone.
 
Zythryn said:
lorenfb said:
Doesn't look too encouraging for Tesla based on their 2015 Q1 results (4700) from InsideEvs...
Click to expand...
I'll wait till the numbers come out from Tesla...
Click to expand...
IMO Tesla's policy of withholding (and also selectively leaking?) of monthly sales data may be problematic for a publicly held corporation:

How many Model S did Tesla sell in America in March? It totally depends on where you look. If you look at the data supplied by Automotive News, an industry publication that tracks all kinds of auto-related data, you will think Tesla sold 1,200 Model S in America last month. If you look at specialty website Inside EVs, which tracks all things electric, you will be made to believe that Tesla sold twice as many, namely 2,450 Model S. Peruse Autodata, a professional data supplier, and you will find yet another, different number, albeit one that is closer to that of Automotive News. Who is right? None of them are.

Tesla Motors is valued like a large car company, but it doesn’t seem to value its investors enough to provide them with decent data. Most large automakers provide monthly data, broken out by region. Tesla does not. All Tesla provides is one global number once every quarter.

Now that Tesla’s Elon Musk admitted that a large chunk of Model S sit unsold in Chinese warehouses, getting a grip on where and when the cars get shipped is more important than ever. In the past, Tesla could take the position that it doesn’t matter where the cars go, it’s all money. With possibly half of the China-bound Cars unsold, monthly data by region is becoming material information, and withholding it from investors could be interpreted as hiding the evidence. Until the data are released, do not trust any monthly number in these tables...

The lack of official data leaves investors and analysts guessing, and guess they do. Monthly data reported by all of the above are presumptions. If you track the guesses as we did above, you will see that the guesses by Inside EVs zig and zag the most, with an odd tendency towards peaking at the end of a quarter. Looking at the data, and correlating them with actual registrations, as we did in the past, one could get the impression that Inside EVs is receiving inside guidance. Inside EVs is hinting at that, saying that they use “first hand accounts available from the factory,” while otherwise professing innocence, and insisting that they “only estimate this number.”...
Click to expand...

http://dailykanban.com/2015/04/model-s-sales-data-statistics-insane-mode/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
Well, Tesla said they were going to be more transparent and at least it is now starting to report WW sales quarterly in a timely fashion.

~10k sales down in Q1, and looks like a ~50% sales increase (~15,000 per Q, on average) required over the next three quarters to meet its sales target for the year:

Tesla Says It Delivered 10,030 Vehicles in First Quarter

...Tesla Motors Inc. said Friday it delivered 10,030 vehicles in the first quarter, a record quarterly mark that represents a 55% increase over the first three months of 2014.

The disclosure, coming three days after the first quarter ends, is the Silicon Valley electric-car maker’s attempt at boosting transparency...

Tesla sold 9,834 vehicles in the fourth quarter, up from 7,785 in the third quarter. It expects global sales of 55,000 in 2015.
Click to expand...
http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-says-it-delivered-10-030-vehicles-in-first-quarter-1428067522?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

...The company had guided during the last quarterly report to 9,500 Model S sedans for Q1, so this should be considered a significant beat. In Q4 of 2014 – notorious for being the strongest 3 month period for EV demand, Tesla sold 9,834 cars..
Click to expand...
http://insideevs.com/tesla-delivers-10030-model-s-electric-cars-q1-2015/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
A surprise ending for March - with the compliance "pls don't buy this" Fiat 500e selling over 1300. An actual year-over-year increase I didn't see coming.

http://insideevs.com/ev-sales-surge-almost-50-march-lead-fiat-500e-tesla-model-s/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
DanCar said:
Competition? BMW I3, VW, Kia Soul EV? I know I stopped recommending the Leaf and have been recommending the Kia because of longer range.
Click to expand...
Apparently they went for the $85 a month lease deals Fiat 500e is giving. Kia is just 63 for the month.
 
Fiat 500e sale figures have for a while suggested that unlike Ford or GM (or Toyota, Honda etc etc etc) that Fiat is selling these for profit.

Perhaps there is a element of marketing involved in Sergio's statements.
 
ydnas7 said:
Fiat 500e sale figures have for a while suggested that unlike Ford or GM (or Toyota, Honda etc etc etc) that Fiat is selling these for profit.

Perhaps there is a element of marketing involved in Sergio's statements.
Click to expand...
The number one buyer of EV credits has been Chrysler. So the 500e is being sold to lose less money.
 

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