WSJ piece on used Leaf Prices

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gatsby2010

New member
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Jan 27, 2015
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3
Interesting article, maybe not news to regular forum readers..
From the WSJ (Sub required)
Resale Prices Tumble on Electric Cars
Tax credits on new models, worries about battery life undercut efforts to peddle used Nissan Leaf

http://www.wsj.com/articles/resale-prices-tumble-on-electric-cars-1424977378" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=newssearch&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB0QqQIoADAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fresale-prices-tumble-on-electric-cars-1424977378&ei=XX7wVNCmL4KHyQTk0IDgBw&usg=AFQjCNEjc0H7wiQS4blpHieNKCPnIli40Q&sig2=s3ieQXgjuuU--pboOT905w&bvm=bv.87269000,d.aWw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
 
That's why NMAC is offering 2012 lease holders $6,000 off if they buy and keep their car. They really don't want the used LEAFs back.

(in about 80 days, they are getting mine back)
 
There is really no incentive to buy a used one when you can lease a new one for less.

Well, then you're selling the used one for too much money! haha Amazing that offering something used for more than its new value doesn't generate sales!
 
Also, this is yet another article that doesn't take the $7,500 to $10,000 rebate into account. They quote NADA saying that used '13 Leafs are worth 44% of their new value. Well, if you take 10 grand off the top first, it's actually 60%, which is better than the two gas cars they list!
 
I wonder if Nissan/NMAC will wind up crushing a bunch of them. With the battery warranty in place I'd think there's a price below which that's cheaper than selling them. Do you really want to sell a Leaf for $8k if you're on the hook to replace the battery at a cost > $6k (subsidized at that) ? Not to mention other possible warranty charges you'd need to account for.
 
Good article, and I suggest some of the commenters above actually read it.

My LEAF's total cost of ownership has been lower than for any other new car in ~the same class, and about $1k less per year than for a comparable ICEV (see the Chevy Cruze on the depreciation chart) which the article confirms.

Yes, this is only due to the incentives I got when I leased, (and later bought) which are reflected in the gross depreciation rates:

And the primary cause of more rapid depreciation than expected for (lower priced) BEVs/PHEVs is the drop in gas prices:

...The significant plunge in end-of-lease value has caught the industry by surprise. “This is sort of a new frontier,” said Eric Lyman, a vice president at Automotive Lease Guide, which provides residual value estimates that are used to calculate how to price a vehicle lease.

The exception is Tesla Motors Inc. ’s Model S, a luxury electric sedan whose lower sales volume helps it retain its value better. NADA calculates a 2013 Model S this year is worth 71% of its original price, compared with 44% for a Leaf and 39% for a Volt...

“We didn’t know how customers would react and we didn’t know gas prices would go down so much,” Mr. Lyman added. In 2011, the Leaf’s first full year on the market, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline was $3.51, compared with about $2.34 a gallon now, according to AAA...
 
LTLFTcomposite said:
I wonder if Nissan/NMAC will wind up crushing a bunch of them. With the battery warranty in place I'd think there's a price below which that's cheaper than selling them. Do you really want to sell a Leaf for $8k if you're on the hook to replace the battery at a cost > $6k (subsidized at that) ? Not to mention other possible warranty charges you'd need to account for.


I highly doubt the battery resale is subsidized. Long before the battery price was announced I posted the cost of a replacement battery for retail and no one believed it, I even had the dealers cost and wholesale pricing. Long after that the price was announced to be pretty much in line with that number and not by coincidence. Nissan is not going to loose money on pack sales. Regardless there is a HUGE market for exported LEAFs and they will all get sucked up and shipped off if prices are right.
 
pkulak said:
Also, this is yet another article that doesn't take the $7,500 to $10,000 rebate into account. They quote NADA saying that used '13 Leafs are worth 44% of their new value. Well, if you take 10 grand off the top first, it's actually 60%, which is better than the two gas cars they list!

It's a $13,500 rebate here in CO. It is "keeping it's value" just as I expected.
 
Suppose if Nissan replaced a new battery for you, and also offered the $6k - Now, would that be a great incentive to buy and keep ? ;-P

TomT said:
It's still a bad deal...

Weatherman said:
That's why NMAC is offering 2012 lease holders $6,000 off if they buy and keep their car. They really don't want the used LEAFs back.
 
I have been diligently taking care of my battery for the next sucker. I am not sure with all the software fraud err recall updates I will even lose one bar.
 
pkulak said:
There is really no incentive to buy a used one when you can lease a new one for less.

Well, then you're selling the used one for too much money! haha Amazing that offering something used for more than its new value doesn't generate sales!
Yep, also if you drive significantly over the allowed mileage for the lease, there can be a reason.
I'll be driving 25k miles per year. Lease at that much over doesn't pan out.
So I'm glad used prices are so low.. ;-)

And really, all it means is that early adopter buyers took a bit more of a hit (can be less depending on your location and incentives too) for the rest of us...

Thanx!

And to add to that, in the last few months, our Subaru (which we love) has cost several thousand in repairs. Combine that with all the oil changes and such... Even a possible battery replacement for an EV doesn't sound quite as bad.. ;-)

desiv
 
Weatherman said:
That's why NMAC is offering 2012 lease holders $6,000 off if they buy and keep their car. They really don't want the used LEAFs back.

(in about 80 days, they are getting mine back)

Darn I could have gotten another $1000 off if I did it this month. Ah well. I think I got a fair shake out of it, but then again my car hasn't personally wronged me yet. If nothing else eventually it just becomes a golf cart for me to go to the grocery store and stuff with.

Leasing one is not truly less than buying used unless you are in CA or one of the other states that has a huge state rebate on top of the federal. Buying out my lease cut my payments by 48%, and now that NMAC is no longer on the title/registration I can get it exempted from personal property tax. They tried getting me in to a new S and it still would have been $100 more than I pay now + the taxes. Hopefully I can squeeze in for a new battery, but if not I will cross that bridge when I get there I suppose. Hopefully by then they have a true 100 mile range pack to back fit.
 
mxp said:
Suppose if Nissan replaced a new battery for you, and also offered the $6k - Now, would that be a great incentive to buy and keep ?

Absolutely. If they gave me a voucher for a free battery replacement (to be used once at any point in the next 10 years) along with the $6000 discount, I would immediately buy my lease out. But without the voucher, I would need a few grand more off the price of the car to cover the inevitable battery replacement in just a few years.

To put into perspective with gas cars: Imagine buying a 3 year old gas car that has a $5500 automatic transmission which only lasts about 5 years, and it starts to die from the very day you drove it off the lot- slowly but surely diminishing its usefulness. $5500 is a substantial repair cost for a 5 year old car.

$6000 has either covered the battery cost or the depreciation, but not both.
 
mxp said:
Suppose if Nissan replaced a new battery for you, and also offered the $6k - Now, would that be a great incentive to buy and keep ? ;-P

Yes, it would, which is why I purchased my Leaf last week, one day after the dealer completed the installation of a new main battery assembly pursuant to the warranty and 10 days before the end of my lease. The gauge dropped to 8 bars on January 28th. I asserted my warranty claim on February 2nd, and learned a week later that the $5000 end-of-lease buy-out reduction offer I had received from Nissan in late December 2014 had been increased to $6000. The result is that I now have a well-maintained 2012 Leaf with brand new full range :D, eliminating any pressure to get a new EV to regain range while I continue watching ongoing developments (e.g. Volt 2.0 later this year, Bolt someday, Tesla X ... ever?) for my next EV.
 
JupiterLEAF said:
mxp said:
Suppose if Nissan replaced a new battery for you, and also offered the $6k - Now, would that be a great incentive to buy and keep ? ;-P

Yes, it would, which is why I purchased my Leaf last week, one day after the dealer completed the installation of a new main battery assembly pursuant to the warranty and 10 days before the end of my lease. The gauge dropped to 8 bars on January 28th. I asserted my warranty claim on February 2nd, and learned a week later that the $5000 end-of-lease buy-out reduction offer I had received from Nissan in late December 2014 had been increased to $6000. The result is that I now have a well-maintained 2012 Leaf with brand new full range :D, eliminating any pressure to get a new EV to regain range while I continue watching ongoing developments (e.g. Volt 2.0 later this year, Bolt someday, Tesla X ... ever?) for my next EV.

*clap* *clap* *clap*. Well played!
 
one day after the dealer completed the installation of a new main battery assembly pursuant to the warranty

You could have had a new battery installed for free even after purchasing your Leaf out of the lease, anytime before 5 years/60k miles. So for anyone who will absolutely lose bars within the warranty period, this is a great deal. For others, this $6K cash back sweetens it, but still might fall short given that they need to replace the battery at their own dime at some point long before it hits 100K miles.

In other words folks in warmer climates have a good incentive to buyout.

For example I would be at 40k miles in two years, in Jan 2016, when my lease runs out, and 10k overage miles would cost me $1500. And I would for sure lose 4 bars within the warranty period. Now currently at 22K miles I am not close to losing the first bar (255 gids), but fairly certain that I would lose 4 bars before 60k miles. My residual is around 16K. So this pegs my buyout value at $8.5K with a new free battery thrown in at some point in the next two years. Great deal.
 
This is awesome. You did the most important step first - get the dealer to replace the battery (and eliminate any "gotchas" or lame claim refusals related to missing battery test checkups etc), then decide if you should buy out the lease.

I read your other post in the Batt Replacement thread. It's awesome!

If they replaced your battery with a "re-furb", some other inferior replacement, you could just turn back in the lease- and walk away. But, they replaced you a NEW battery :) Well executed!

JupiterLEAF said:
mxp said:
Suppose if Nissan replaced a new battery for you, and also offered the $6k - Now, would that be a great incentive to buy and keep ? ;-P

Yes, it would, which is why I purchased my Leaf last week, one day after the dealer completed the installation of a new main battery assembly pursuant to the warranty and 10 days before the end of my lease. The gauge dropped to 8 bars on January 28th. I asserted my warranty claim on February 2nd, and learned a week later that the $5000 end-of-lease buy-out reduction offer I had received from Nissan in late December 2014 had been increased to $6000. The result is that I now have a well-maintained 2012 Leaf with brand new full range :D, eliminating any pressure to get a new EV to regain range while I continue watching ongoing developments (e.g. Volt 2.0 later this year, Bolt someday, Tesla X ... ever?) for my next EV.
 
"To put into perspective with gas cars: Imagine buying a 3 year old gas car that has a $5500 automatic transmission which only lasts about 5 years, and it starts to die from the very day you drove it off the lot- slowly but surely diminishing its usefulness. $5500 is a substantial repair cost for a 5 year old car. "

not a valid comparison.

change "transmission" to "fuel tank"

and now add in all the fuel you will have to feed that tank over 5 years.

changes things considerably.

I save $8700 a year in fuel. the car is free. it costs me absolutely nothing. not a penny. the next battery is damned near free too (I figure I will need a new battery in 3 years and one every 4 years after that but I will likely have one of the 200 mile range units by then)

even with these lower gas prices I still have saves $2600 in the last 5.5 months in fuel alone. that is $520 a month in fuel.

my payments including the increased cost of insurance? $340. let me tell you I have zero complaints.

I can't use the heat when going to work below 30' and I can't use the heat while delivering but I don't care. not one little bit.

as long as I get 3 years or 90,000 miles out of this battery I will have zero complaints.
 
kubel said:
mxp said:
Suppose if Nissan replaced a new battery for you, and also offered the $6k - Now, would that be a great incentive to buy and keep ?

Absolutely. If they gave me a voucher for a free battery replacement (to be used once at any point in the next 10 years) along with the $6000 discount, I would immediately buy my lease out. But without the voucher, I would need a few grand more off the price of the car to cover the inevitable battery replacement in just a few years.

To put into perspective with gas cars: Imagine buying a 3 year old gas car that has a $5500 automatic transmission which only lasts about 5 years, and it starts to die from the very day you drove it off the lot- slowly but surely diminishing its usefulness. $5500 is a substantial repair cost for a 5 year old car.

$6000 has either covered the battery cost or the depreciation, but not both.

Yeah that IS our Honda Odyssey 2001 van I rebuilt - Third Transmission - instead of every 5 years its 3.5 years!! 30$K car in 2000,
168K miles later and over 40,000K in gas, 12,000 self repairs and parts, oil. 5,000 dealer robbery charges, brake calipers, engine mounts, sliding door problems. 4,000 tires and 3 sets of wheels. not including insurance this car has cost us $91,000.

15.4 years later that comes to 5,900 per year to own and operate (not including insurance) - Cost per mile is $0.54.

Compared to a 2012 Leaf - Say 30K new - 8 years is worth 3,000 - (battery at 40% needs a new life) - New life battery cost 6,000
Miles drive per year 12K - Maintenance per year $50 average. Cost per mile assuming 4 cents per mile electric, add depreciation of 30K-3K = 27,000 / 8 years = 3,425 Divided by 12,00 miles = 0.29/mile + .04 = 0.33 cents / mile

If you take off the full federal and no state - that comes to (30-7.5-3 = 2,438 / 12,000 = 20 +4 = 24 cents/mile

Buy Leaf 3,000 - Need new brakes at 8 years = 1,500, new tires = 800, New battery pack 6,000 = Investment for another 8 years = 11,300 - $1,413 /year or 12 + 4 = 16 cents per mile.

My true case I am banking on is average of the 24 / 16 cents = 20 cents per mile. Delta of 34 cents per mile times 168K = $57,120
 
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