2016 Leaf ? anyone have a guess as to when and what changes

My lease is up feb 10 2015. so I am figuring I will turn in my car at the end of the term and drive a spare car til the 2016s or the redesigned 2017 comes out.


whats everyones guess on changes that could be implemented for a minor refresh for the 2016 model and wondering what the release timing would be?

since we are all almost sure 16's wont be all new here is my wish list

1 new wheels, minor exterior refresh
2 sport suspension option?
3 more range ? even just 2, 4 or 6 kwh more capacity?

Make 2016 MY available before July 1st 2015, that is when WA state no tax incentive expires. I am considering extending my lease until June 2015, in hopes I can buy something with twice the range of a Leaf and half the price of a Model S.

I would be really, really surprised if there are any changes at all on the '16. Nissan has been making changes every two years and the '15 is a minor refresh over the '13 & '14 and on top of that it will the last year for this body. You may be able to extend your lease to hold you over until the '17 comes out though. Several people here have done that already.

Unfortunately, I expect nothing significant until the 2017 MY... It had better be a significant upgrade as the market will have become much more saturated by then...

From what I've read over the last bit I'd guess that the Infinity will come out first, then a full year later the next Leaf. That probably means when we see a production ready Infinity there will be 1.5 to 2 years before we can buy a second gen leaf.

If they are going to make any changes to the 2016 leaf it won't be major. They won't want to get new contracts and engineering for things like a different bumper or headlights if they are only going to make it one year. Maybe expect some options that other countries get (ie they are already paid for and being made). These things would be more about keeping the car fresh in the media than presenting good value to you as a buyer. The real value in buying the last year comes from incentives when they want to blow out the inventory.

My lease is up feb 10 2015. so I am figuring I will turn in my car at the end of the term and drive a spare car til the 2016s or the redesigned 2017 comes out.

Click to expand...

I'm not sure what you mean by "spare car" but you can extend your lease by at least six months, and probably longer. I plan to drive my 2013, paying $149 a month, until they make me give it back.

Has anyone have substantiated information of a 150-200 mi range Leaf arriving soon (before MY2017)? I know we've seen the 48 KWH test Leaf, and seen the Nissan survey about how much extra would we pay for 150 mi EPA range. All of this points to the impending introduction of a longer range Nissan product (Leaf, Infinity, Whachamacallit). However, the big question has always been when. I've read (but don't know) that Nissan usually has a 7-year refresh cycle on vehicles. Since the Leaf was officially released in 2010 (although maybe it was a 2011 "model"), this points to MY 2017 or summer of 2016 (two years away ). However, recently I've heard rumors (admittedly salesmen), that such a vehicle may be released in the next few months, pointing toward a real MY 2015. Is there any substantiated information other than salesmen and our wishful thinking?

IMHO, it won't happen. And it will likely happen first as a (much more expensive) Infiniti...

Reddy said:

Has anyone have substantiated information of a 150-200 mi range Leaf arriving soon (before MY2017)?

Click to expand...

TomT said:

IMHO, it won't happen. And it will likely happen first as a (much more expensive) Infiniti...

Click to expand...

My thoughts too (as of last year), but I still wonder if these salesmen actually know something. I'm having a hard time believing that Nissan would release a 2015 Leaf (I believe they are for sale right now in the bigger markets) with a 24 KWH battery and then start selling the same MY with a larger 48 KWH (or whatever) battery just a few months later. If (and that's a big if) Nissan releases anything with a bigger battery this calendar year, I would expect it to be a high end vehicle like the Infiniti. Still.....

Reddy said:

TomT said:

IMHO, it won't happen. And it will likely happen first as a (much more expensive) Infiniti...

Click to expand...

My thoughts too (as of last year), but I still wonder if these salesmen actually know something. I'm having a hard time believing that Nissan would release a 2015 Leaf (I believe they are for sale right now in the bigger markets) with a 24 KWH battery and then start selling the same MY with a larger 48 KWH (or whatever) battery just a few months later. If (and that's a big if) Nissan releases anything with a bigger battery this calendar year, I would expect it to be a high end vehicle like the Infiniti. Still.....

Click to expand...

Where would they put it? The battery is too big to double it in the current car. It would mean a massive redesign and probably need to be crash tested all over again. It could mean a 2 seater, or super small trunk, but if you take that away then why do you need more range? If they wanted to make a long distance commute car they could probably take a micra and put in a leaf drivetrain and get rid of the back seat for less money. They could detune it to give similar performance and also the size and weight savings would increase range.

The env200 is being shown and if that car with it's increased size is only going to come with the same size battery I'd say it's a safe bet that this current leaf will never see anything bigger.

There is also the chance that they may skip a model year. In the real world this usually means a 6 to 8 month period skipped. Just like when they launched the leaf in 2010 they sold 2011s. They can sell the next model year earlier if there was no previous model year car. That would also mean that people who really wanted a cheaper than tesla electric would have no leaf option around when the infinity comes out.

The 7 year cycle quoted above (which most manufactures stick close to) is mostly for the chasis/looks of the car. Profit from insurance repairs is as big a part of this as is making it look fresh for the consumer. This is also part of the reason for the midcycle refresh, usually bumpers, fenders, headlights and tail lights. Think what are the most common and expensive parts of a collision repair? Just as the cars are getting old enough that a few might pop up at the auto wrecker, or popular enough that the aftermarket companies may chose to get in on making parts they go and change them just so slightly so that if your mid cycle refresh car gets in an accident they now have no choice but to buy parts from the OEM. Many cars that sell in low volume skip the mid cycle refresh because they auto wreckers never build up a supply and the aftermarket ignores the low volume and leaves the OEMs with the majority of the market.

The 7 year cycle is not always a guarantee on a drive train update though. They like to get more years out of the major components such as engine and transmission. The 24kwhr battery in the leaf will probably have a much longer life expectancy than the first gen car does. They may get to it by putting it in other cars and then introducing an all new battery for the leaf but I am guessing that the second gen car will have the same basic battery design as we see now. If we see more range it will probably come from aerodynamic efficencies and weight loss and maybe larger diamter tires similar to those on the i3 would probably help both with looking good and modern and increasing efficency. That would get the base new leaf more range with no investment in more battery. Then as an option I wouldn't be surprised if there are 1 or even 2 battery add on's avaialable or if the leaf continues on very close to what it is now and there is a second full electric Nissan. They may sub brand leaf like prius has but since Nissan has been hard at showing they are the leading electric car maker I don't think they will sub brand it. I think they will want to show that Nissan is as commited to electric cars as Tesla and a sub brand just shows they think that part is profitable. I think they will convert an existing car to electric, keep the known name and ditch ICE, they could do it with the maxima (I see very very few of them now and I've wondered why they keep the car).

Oh and to get back to your original question, salesmen don't know anything. They will say anything to get a sale. If you rely on them for information they will also say anything to get you to come back. They may sense that you will not buy now, so they will tell you lies to get you to come back to them later when you want to buy and to... and this is probably key, to not buy another car. They know the new volt is coming out in January. They have no clue what it will have, they only know what the rear emblem will look like. They are probably telling you this so that what ever the volt delivers you will now think that just around the corner the Nissan will deliver more. Then when Nissan does come out with a new leaf as long as they deliver more to you than the volt does (which they probably will with more time) then you'll probably stick with a Nissan. If they told you the truth, ie they have no clue what it will be. Then if the volt is enough for you you may buy it before knowing what Nissan is doing.

A good rule of thumb: Car sales people NEVER know anything that everyone else does not already know...

Reddy said:

My thoughts too (as of last year), but I still wonder if these salesmen actually know something.

Click to expand...

^^^^^ Yes, I agree. However, in this case I was not at the dealership and there was no "sales" possibility. Anyway, here is a link to an older article postulating the future Leaf model refresh. Nothing to see here, move along (at least until Nissan actually announces and/or releases something).
http://www.greencarreports.com/news...-new-styling-range--and-infiniti-electric-too

Reddy said:

Has anyone have substantiated information of a 150-200 mi range Leaf arriving soon (before MY2017)? I know we've seen the 48 KWH test Leaf, and seen the Nissan survey about how much extra would we pay for 150 mi EPA range. All of this points to the impending introduction of a longer range Nissan product (Leaf, Infinity, Whachamacallit). However, the big question has always been when. I've read (but don't know) that Nissan usually has a 7-year refresh cycle on vehicles. Since the Leaf was officially released in 2010 (although maybe it was a 2011 "model"), this points to MY 2017 or summer of 2016 (two years away ). However, recently I've heard rumors (admittedly salesmen), that such a vehicle may be released in the next few months, pointing toward a real MY 2015. Is there any substantiated information other than salesmen and our wishful thinking?

Click to expand...

no way to substantiate since Nissan has not made any announcements. from various statements it seems likely the range increase will be on the 2017 model and it will be a crowded market. I think Nissan would do far better getting a jump on the competition by releasing the longer range options for MY 2016 for release Summer of 2015 but if it aint ready, it aint ready...

When you extend your lease, how does that change the residual value?

Wouldn't it be awesome if the extension resulted in a renegotiated residual value, which would allow you to buy out the car for a cheaper price?

(dreaming)

kubel said:

When you extend your lease, how does that change the residual value?

Wouldn't it be awesome if the extension resulted in a renegotiated residual value, which would allow you to buy out the car for a cheaper price?

(dreaming)

Click to expand...

The residual value is always a set % of what the dealer thinks it will be worth at the end. If the vehicle has a high resale value they can have a high residual % and charge less for a lease. So if you are extending it let's say you had 4 years to pay 60% of original invoice that means your buy out is 40%. To extend it you are basically negotiating adding on another %, let's say 10 so the next year over 12 months you pay 10% more and the buy out would now be 30% original invoice price. If you add more miles you aren't actually paying for them the dealer is saying that the value will be less at the end so you pay more now and have a smaller % residual value.

No matter how you work it if you lease then buy or buy it out right you pay the same for the car. The only thing that changes is taxes, interest and service fees.

minispeed said:

The residual value is always a set % of what the dealer thinks it will be worth at the end.

Click to expand...

No - it's all set by NMAC.

evnow said:

minispeed said:

The residual value is always a set % of what the dealer thinks it will be worth at the end.

Click to expand...

No - it's all set by NMAC.

Click to expand...

Sorry to clarrify, I used "dealer" meaning the company who retains legal ownership of the car, that's my mistake. In 99.9% of our cases it's Nissan financial (which from google I assume that's what NMAC is) but it still holds true that it's the finance company thinking what it's worth at the end and it will be a fluid number that can change, you won't know what % it's going to be until you are ready to sign.

minispeed said:

...you won't know what % it's going to be until you are ready to sign.

Click to expand...

NMAC publishes all lease details - so, we'll know the details (see the lease thread). Ofcourse NMAC changes the details quite often - mostly money factor rather than residuals. Residuals for leases are kept fairly constant.

Getting back to original question - residual should reduce when extending the lease - depending on how much capital cost is paid back every month.

Can anyone who has done a 6 month extension report on what their residual has been adjusted to?

As for more battery space, I always figured the huge space under the cargo floor in the 2013, and added to cargo space in the 2014, could be used. The one Tony put his spare in.

I bet they could get 50% more battery volume back there (eating into the cargo area), contiguous to the current battery compartment. I figure the car could handle 50% more battery weight. (300lbs?)

I would bet on a >50% increase in range in MY2017, rolling in some incremental improvements to chemistry in addition to the bigger battery.