Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

[cwerdna]

I'd say that NHW10 was pretty close to a Toyota science experiment, at best.

Call it what you will, Toyota sold nearly 71,000 copies of the XW10 according to Wikipedia. Of those 71,000 XW10s, it sounds like over 37,000 were the NHW10 style:

Production commenced in December 1997 at the Takaoka plant in Toyota, Aichi, ending in February 2000 after cumulative production of 37,425 vehicles. Production recommenced in May 2000 at the Motomachi plant in the same area, before XW10 manufacture ended in June 2003 after a further 33,411 vehicles had been produced.

In other words, Toyota built more of the NHW10 style that you referred to as a "science experiment" than the NHW11, which you referred to as the first generation Prii. That doesn't sound like a science experiment to me. Perhaps the article is in error?

I'll have to check the production numbers. It drives me nuts that some "genius" decided to screw with the Prius wikipedia entry long ago and use XW crap. Toyota has NEVER called their Priuses XWnn. It's always been NHW10, NHW11, NHW20, ZVW30, etc. (a few more at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Prius_Wiki). One can see identifier plates/labels at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Prius_Labels and Google for stuff like toyota nhw10 site:toyota.co.jp vs. toyota xw10 site:toyota.co.jp.

I didn't want to bother changing it as doing so had too many other repercussions.

I've ranted about this numerous times like at http://priuschat.com/threads/xw3-a-zvw3 ... st-1790341 and http://priuschat.com/threads/what-kind- ... st-1421582 as it unfortunately causes confusion to newbies.

By "science experiment" I wasn't really referring to production numbers anyway. I'm talking about the technology and it being the first vehicle I'm aware of to use Hybrid Synergy Drive. It used D-cells (which I hear weren't very good) instead of prismatic form batteries. It was JDM-only. It had a "jump-starting" feature (see http://priuschat.com/attachments/12v_2_ ... pdf.34033/) that was removed on all Priuses that followed. Its engine was pretty wimpy and battery pack energy density low. Oh, and for those who own a JDM-only NHW10 outside Japan, the UI and controls are all in Japanese. I don't think any of Toyota's service manuals for it were ever translated (officially) from Japanese to other languages, as there wasn't a need to. So, it's a science experiment for them too.

Even now, I wouldn't recommend anyone buy a used NHW11, let alone a NHW10. I'd suggest they up their budget to a NHW20.

[smkettner]

I have my doubts Nissan could even ramp up production like Prius from 2003 to 2010.

[evnow]

I have my doubts Nissan could even ramp up production like Prius from 2003 to 2010.

It doesn't have to. Since the yearly sales are already double of Prius at the same stage ...

Assuming new generations in 2016 & 2020.

Code: Select all

+------------------------------------------------------+
|       Annual Prius versus LEAF Worldwide Sales       |
|                    (in thousands)                    |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
| Prius | Prius | Prius | LEAF | LEAF  | LEAF  | LEAF/ |
| Year  | Sales | Cum.  | Year | Sales | Cum.  | Prius |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+
|  1997 |   0.3 |   0.3 | 2010 |  0.05 | 0.05  |   16% |
|  1998 |  17.7 |  18.0 | 2011 |  22.0 |  22.1 |  123% |
|  1999 |  15.2 |  33.2 | 2012 |  27.0 |  49.1 |  148% |
|  2000 |  19.0 |  52.2 | 2013 |  47.7 |  96.8 |  184% |
|  2001 |  29.5 |  81.7 | 2014 |  60?  |       |       |
|  2002 |  28.1 |   110 | 2015 |  80?  |       |       |
|  2003 |  43.2 |   153 | 2016 | 100?  |       |       |
|  2004 | 125.7 |   279 | 2017 | 140?  |       |       |
|  2005 | 175.2 |   454 | 2018 | 180?  |       |       |
|  2006 | 185.6 |   640 | 2019 | 220?  |       |       |
|  2007 | 281.3 |   921 | 2020 | 260?  |       |       |
|  2008 | 285.7 |  1207 | 2021 | 320?  |       |       |
|  2009 | 404.2 |  1611 | 2022 | 400?  |       |       |
|  2010 |  >508 | >2119 | 2023 |       |       |       |
|  2011 |  >417 | >2536 | 2024 |       |       |       |
|  2012 |  >489 | >3025 | 2025 |       |       |       |
|  2013 |  >405 | >3430 | 2026 |       |       |       |
+-------+-------+-------+------+-------+-------+-------+

-

[jsongster]

I think with 3 factories on line and ready to build LEAFs it is entirely possible they could ramp up very well. Provided they have enough contracts on the raw materials for the batteries and motors.

Here's to it... still enjoying my 2013 1.5 model SL. 10k miles and all the bars are still there.

[2k1Toaster]

I'll have to check the production numbers. It drives me nuts that some "genius" decided to screw with the Prius wikipedia entry long ago and use XW crap. Toyota has NEVER called their Priuses XWnn. It's always been NHW10, NHW11, NHW20, ZVW30, etc. (a few more at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Prius_Wiki). One can see identifier plates/labels at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Prius_Labels and Google for stuff like toyota nhw10 site:toyota.co.jp vs. toyota xw10 site:toyota.co.jp.

I didn't want to bother changing it as doing so had too many other repercussions.

I've ranted about this numerous times like at http://priuschat.com/threads/xw3-a-zvw3 ... st-1790341 and http://priuschat.com/threads/what-kind- ... st-1421582 as it unfortunately causes confusion to newbies.

Yeah I've tried changing it about 20 times over the past few years only for it to be changed back within an hour. No matter what proof you put forwards, the moderators at wikipedia don't care. It's ridiculous.

As to Prius vs. Leaf sales, agreed you cannot compare early Leaf with 1997 Prius. You can compare it with the 2001 Prius, as that was the first "real" Prius sold in different markets including the US.

[GetOffYourGas]

different areas had different POVs. the EV 1 in my area was a COMPLETELY unknown entity that came to light with "Who Killed the Electric Car" so it was not a stepping stone for Prius acceptance. the fact that the car did drive on gas and was not really that much of a leap helped it get accepted faster (a spike in gas prices did not hurt either) but had too many people tell me i was crazy to pay $22,000 for a car when a Corolla was only $15,000. can't even begin to tell you how many people told me that. so you really can't understand what it was like unless you can tell me what a Corolla has in common with a Prius other than 4 wheels

**edit** just have to add this in. my 3 Priuses were all sales tax free along with my 2 LEAFs meaning in the last 10 years, the only two cars I have paid sales tax on were Corollas, a 2012 and 2000...

and people wonder why I do what I do...my answer?

WA State's 8.9% sales tax!

I think you are missing my point (or maybe I'm missing yours?).

I agreed with you that the Prius was more important for acceptance. My nitpick was about your use of the term "concept of electric transportation". To me, this implies from the supply side, not the consumer side.

A corollary might be with smartphones - the concept was pioneered with Blackberries, but didn't reach widespread acceptance until the iPhone came to town. Apple certainly didn't pioneer the smartphone business, but they brought it to the mainstream.

Again, this was just a nitpick anyway. We should probably move on...

[RegGuheert]

coming in late to the discussion and sure this has already been mentioned but can't really start the Prius at 1997... to say it had worldwide distribution at that point is stretching it a bit

I never said the Prius had worldwide distribution. No argument here that Japan was the extent of their worldwide sales the first two years, but when comparing worldwide sales, you need to include those years.

Again, I am comparing bottom-line worldwide performance of the Prius versus the LEAF. The difference in their first two years was merely in their go-to-market strategy. There were some similarities and some differences:
- Both companies decided to build all of the production units in a single factory in Japan.
- Both companies limited production to about the same level for the first two years: ~20,000/year.
- Toyota chose to limit sales to Japan. This reduced their initial expense and their sales expense and also limited their exposure in case the product was a failure.
- Nissan chose to sell the LEAF widely in several different markets. This approach incurred additional up-front expenses and additional sales and marketing expenses, but it exposed Nissan to significantly more risk had the product failed.

In order to compare the LEAF to the Prius worldwide sales, it does not make sense to compare the first generation LEAF product performance with the second-generation Prius product performance.

[DaveinOlyWA]

different areas had different POVs. the EV 1 in my area was a COMPLETELY unknown entity that came to light with "Who Killed the Electric Car" so it was not a stepping stone for Prius acceptance. the fact that the car did drive on gas and was not really that much of a leap helped it get accepted faster (a spike in gas prices did not hurt either) but had too many people tell me i was crazy to pay $22,000 for a car when a Corolla was only $15,000. can't even begin to tell you how many people told me that. so you really can't understand what it was like unless you can tell me what a Corolla has in common with a Prius other than 4 wheels

**edit** just have to add this in. my 3 Priuses were all sales tax free along with my 2 LEAFs meaning in the last 10 years, the only two cars I have paid sales tax on were Corollas, a 2012 and 2000...

and people wonder why I do what I do...my answer?

WA State's 8.9% sales tax!

I think you are missing my point (or maybe I'm missing yours?).

I agreed with you that the Prius was more important for acceptance. My nitpick was about your use of the term "concept of electric transportation". To me, this implies from the supply side, not the consumer side.

A corollary might be with smartphones - the concept was pioneered with Blackberries, but didn't reach widespread acceptance until the iPhone came to town. Apple certainly didn't pioneer the smartphone business, but they brought it to the mainstream.

Again, this was just a nitpick anyway. We should probably move on...

maybe I am speaking for only a very small set of people, myself included when I first experienced electric only operation that was enhanced by EV mode added to the 2010 Prius where it became a tease making me want more. or ask Phil who had to have felt the same way since his DIY plug in Prius trumps what Toyota could do BIGTIME.

it was then, and not before that I began to think EVs were viable. unlike CA'ians, we WA'ians did not have exposure to EVs so we really flipped out over our 6/10th of a mile EV glides thinking that was really something and it really was, so much so that I got a ZENN. a VERY short range, slow 2 seat EV that I made work (with a LOT of effort) for me for over 3 years.

But I have been to enough Prius meetings to know that I was not alone in nurturing this seed of thought and the Prius was the nourishment that made this idea grow.

as far as the Blackberry, it was a crap product that did not have any competition. there was nothing you could do on it without drilling down thru several menu levels and it lacked the very basics of consumer desires like pix, text, etc. it survived as long as it did because it had no real competition. when the competition showed up, it was obvious it would fail. as a smartphone tech, it was literally a joke and its ONLY worth was security but that advantage disappeared quickly and then it had nothing.

But that is where the LEAF is now. its a Blackberry but will it improve itself like the Iconic Prius (2004) or will it sit there like RIM did and run itself into a hole? guess we will find out in a year or two

[donald]

I still don't see it, myself.

There is no difference between a Prius and any other car from the POV of the driver that I can really see. Apart from the flashing gimmick on the dashboard and the 'knowledge' of something different happening, you perform all the normal operations of a car and still go to the fuel station and refuel every couple of hundred miles.

If you didn't know beforehand something extra was happening under the bonnet, what would be the difference for driver?

So it seems to me that Prius sold on the basis of a gimmick. Whether the early models truly achieved a fuel saving still seems dubious to me, but it appears to have defeated the fuel consumption tests of the day.

An EV is a wholly different proposition. It does something very different in terms of the fuelling and the maintenance that the driver has to deal with. You, the driver, have to do different things and plan journeys differently, doing different things along the way. You do different things for servicing and maintaining the vehicle too, whereas Prius you still check all the fluid levels and go get an interim oil change if you want one, rust exhausts, etc., etc..

I see no different between the introduction of the Prius and the introduction of electronic fuel injection for the 1976 Cadillac Seville (which I happen to mention because I had one). It was neither the first use of that technology, nor did it make any difference to the driver's behaviour, apart from, arguably, visit the fuel station a little less.

So I don't see any connection for the mainstream driver between the desire to buy an ICE and buy a Prius. However, I do see a difference between ICE and EV because they have to fundamentally change the way they go about their driving. The only appeal hybrids offer is to people who consciously visualise that this technological difference changes things.

I think a piece of evidence towards this is the geeky way you are discussing early models!! It makes no difference where it is sold, it only makes a difference if you believe it makes a difference.

Reality is, hybrids don't really change anything and the only change is in attitude towards the car, whereas driving an EV really does change things.

[DaveinOlyWA]

I still don't see it, myself.

There is no difference between a Prius and any other car from the POV of the driver that I can really see. Apart from the flashing gimmick on the dashboard and the 'knowledge' of something different happening, you perform all the normal operations of a car and still go to the fuel station and refuel every couple of hundred miles.

If you didn't know beforehand something extra was happening under the bonnet, what would be the difference for driver?

So it seems to me that Prius sold on the basis of a gimmick. Whether the early models truly achieved a fuel saving still seems dubious to me, but it appears to have defeated the fuel consumption tests of the day.

An EV is a wholly different proposition. It does something very different in terms of the fuelling and the maintenance that the driver has to deal with. You, the driver, have to do different things and plan journeys differently, doing different things along the way. You do different things for servicing and maintaining the vehicle too, whereas Prius you still check all the fluid levels and go get an interim oil change if you want one, rust exhausts, etc., etc..

I see no different between the introduction of the Prius and the introduction of electronic fuel injection for the 1976 Cadillac Seville (which I happen to mention because I had one). It was neither the first use of that technology, nor did it make any difference to the driver's behaviour, apart from, arguably, visit the fuel station a little less.

So I don't see any connection for the mainstream driver between the desire to buy an ICE and buy a Prius. However, I do see a difference between ICE and EV because they have to fundamentally change the way they go about their driving. The only appeal hybrids offer is to people who consciously visualise that this technological difference changes things.

I think a piece of evidence towards this is the geeky way you are discussing early models!! It makes no difference where it is sold, it only makes a difference if you believe it makes a difference.

Reality is, hybrids don't really change anything and the only change is in attitude towards the car, whereas driving an EV really does change things.

you could have saved me a lot of time by simply stating at the beginning that you "have never owned a Prius and the following statement proves it"