GetOffYourGas
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:43 pm

Exactly. A 20% compounding growth rate is, by definition, exponential
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LeftieBiker
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Tue Jan 16, 2018 4:59 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:Exactly. A 20% compounding growth rate is, by definition, exponential


Except that that 20% is an average of years that include both very weak growth and negative "growth." But hey, if you folks want to misuse a term widely understood in economics to mean "accelerating growth" to describe growth that is all over the map (including shrinkage) because mathematical definitions allow it, go ahead. It isn't as if the language isn't already ruined. I suggest that you next eliminate that awful past tense, as the news media have done, giving us gems like "Hawaiian issues a false missile launch alert yesterday!" I give up.
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GRA
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Tue Jan 16, 2018 7:52 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:
LeftieBiker wrote:Most Prius drivers will tell you that they find having the engine off while stopped and moving at low speeds is much more pleasant than the ICE vehicle experience. Not that many people care about a sporty ride or acceleration - those are just over-represented online.


Point taken. I still feel that this benefit of hybrids is less of a differentiateor than the many benefits of a BEV (e.g. convenient home fueling).

Personally, while I agree that BEV sales will continue to increase, I feel that the elephant in the room that is missing in the HEV vs. BEV comparison is that AFAIA HEVs never had government quotas for sales. For the next few years at least, BEV sales increases will almost certainly be driven more by such mandates (and government bribes) than they will by buyer demand.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:17 am

GRA wrote:Personally, while I agree that BEV sales will continue to increase, I feel that the elephant in the room that is missing in the HEV vs. BEV comparison is that AFAIA HEVs never had government quotas for sales. For the next few years at least, BEV sales increases will almost certainly be driven more by such mandates (and government bribes) than they will by buyer demand.
Government quotas? Regarding government bribes: I got a Federal tax credit when I purchased my 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid and another one when I purchased my 2011 Nissan LEAF.
RegGuheert
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cmwade77
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Wed Jan 17, 2018 4:36 pm

GRA wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:
LeftieBiker wrote:Most Prius drivers will tell you that they find having the engine off while stopped and moving at low speeds is much more pleasant than the ICE vehicle experience. Not that many people care about a sporty ride or acceleration - those are just over-represented online.


Point taken. I still feel that this benefit of hybrids is less of a differentiateor than the many benefits of a BEV (e.g. convenient home fueling).

Personally, while I agree that BEV sales will continue to increase, I feel that the elephant in the room that is missing in the HEV vs. BEV comparison is that AFAIA HEVs never had government quotas for sales. For the next few years at least, BEV sales increases will almost certainly be driven more by such mandates (and government bribes) than they will by buyer demand.

I am not sure how true this is given how hard it is getting to find used EVs now because people buy them up pretty much as soon as they go on sale.

GRA
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Wed Jan 17, 2018 5:30 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:Personally, while I agree that BEV sales will continue to increase, I feel that the elephant in the room that is missing in the HEV vs. BEV comparison is that AFAIA HEVs never had government quotas for sales. For the next few years at least, BEV sales increases will almost certainly be driven more by such mandates (and government bribes) than they will by buyer demand.
Government quotas? Regarding government bribes: I got a Federal tax credit when I purchased my 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid and another one when I purchased my 2011 Nissan LEAF.

How much was the credit for each? I assume you aren't arguing that there are government quotas and mandates, as you certainly know better. To take one recent non-US example, via GCC:
Beijing to cut annual new car registration quota by one-third to 100,000; 60% for new energy vehicles
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2017/12/20171219-beijing.html
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Thu Jan 18, 2018 5:09 am

GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:Personally, while I agree that BEV sales will continue to increase, I feel that the elephant in the room that is missing in the HEV vs. BEV comparison is that AFAIA HEVs never had government quotas for sales. For the next few years at least, BEV sales increases will almost certainly be driven more by such mandates (and government bribes) than they will by buyer demand.
Government quotas? Regarding government bribes: I got a Federal tax credit when I purchased my 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid and another one when I purchased my 2011 Nissan LEAF.
I assume you aren't arguing that there are government quotas and mandates, as you certainly know better.
:?: :?: :?: You brought up quotas, not me. I'm not arguing anything. I'm asking YOU to justify YOUR claim about government quotas.
RegGuheert
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GRA
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:14 pm

RegGuheert wrote:
GRA wrote:
RegGuheert wrote:Government quotas? Regarding government bribes: I got a Federal tax credit when I purchased my 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid and another one when I purchased my 2011 Nissan LEAF.
I assume you aren't arguing that there are government quotas and mandates, as you certainly know better.
:?: :?: :?: You brought up quotas, not me. I'm not arguing anything. I'm asking YOU to justify YOUR claim about government quotas.

Oh, come on, Reg. You wouldn't have a LEAF or any other production BEV to drive if it weren't for California's ZEV quotas. We both know this, so why does this need to be justified? And then there are all the countries (and maybe a few states, like CA) who either have or are considering passing total bans on ICEs at some future date.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

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RegGuheert
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:34 am

GRA wrote:You wouldn't have a LEAF or any other production BEV to drive if it weren't for California's ZEV quotas. We both know this, so why does this need to be justified?
I never denied that. Let's remind everyone of the comment that you made to which I responded:
GRA wrote:...I feel that the elephant in the room that is missing in the HEV vs. BEV comparison is that AFAIA HEVs never had government quotas for sales.
Frankly, that statement, while *perhaps* true, is incredibly disingenuous. While CA may have only ever had "ZEV" quotas, those quotes were an overreach and they pulled back on them at the end of the 1990s and early 2000s. What that meant is that CA allowed manufacturers to meet their ZEV quotas by delivering HEVs instead. In other words, during that period, CARB's ZEV quotas were not actually ZEV quotas, but rather they were de facto HEV quotas.

So it is a real stretch to try to imply that the Prius and the LEAF somehow grew under a different regulatory environment. In fact it was nearly identical.

But of course you already knew that to be the case. And you've never purchased either an HEV or a BEV. Instead you come here every day to tell us why you have eschewed these technologies and try to tell us how poorly BEV sales are doing.
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WetEV
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Re: Worldwide LEAF sales compared with Prius (85 months - 108%)

Fri Jan 19, 2018 8:51 am

GRA wrote:You wouldn't have a LEAF or any other production BEV to drive if it weren't for California's ZEV quotas. We both know this, so why does this need to be justified?


Because it is not clear that is the case. Sure, the world would have been different with no CARB ZEV quotas. Battery technology was being driven by laptops and other uses to get cheaper and better, and this would have happened without electric cars. Electric car conversions would get better, cheaper and more available. Eventually, you would have a company like Tesla ramping up from one or two conversions a year, to hundreds of conversions, then thousands, then a production car. Or an automaker deciding they wanted to be first, and probably at the high end. Sure, the breakout would have been later, but how much later? I don't know, and I doubt if you do.

Fiat loses money on a 500 electric, basically a low end car converted to electric power. It is clearly the nicest 500, but a 500 is a low end car. Fiat might be making money with a Spider Electric. Or maybe a Alfa Romeo.
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