Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

My Nissan Leaf Forum

Help Support My Nissan Leaf Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.
Had a bit of time yesterday afternoon, a nice day, so parked myself in a folding chair at the junction of two main afternoon commute arterials (plus one counterflow) that join up and counted the number of Plug-ins I saw between 4:58 and 6:32. The Bay Area is more ideologically green than most metro areas, and also has some concentrations of high income tech people that can afford Teslas. OTOH, we also have one of the higher average daily driving distances of any metro area, and rank #1 among metro areas for Mega commuters (1.5 hour and 50 miles or more one way commute), with 2.5%.

PHEVs
Volt 20*
PiP 14
FuE 4 (3)
CME 3 (4)
Total 41

BEVs
LEAF 14*
ModS 7#
500e 4
FFE 1
Total 26

*Usually I see more LEAFs than Volts, with a ratio between 3:2 and 5:4. I also saw two more LEAFs later in the evening.

#Unusually large number of Model S, and I saw two more later on. I'd expect maybe 4 or so during the commute.

So, 41 PHEVs versus 26 BEvs, and 7 of those are Model S. Removing those, it's 41:19, or a bit over 2:1. The PiP is really coming on strong. I expect that's due to a large population who've owned Prii in the past (really, they're like rabbits around here) and upgraded, plus the fact that it's about the cheapest PHEV you can buy and get a green sticker, and it has the best mileage on gas of all the current PHEVs.

Edit: Inadvertently swapped the Fusion and C-Max Energi numbers. Correct numbers are in parentheses.
 
From here: http://transportevolved.com/2014/08/01/transport-evolved-news-panel-show-209-breaking-ground/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; :

"Over in California, the state’s DMV has handed out an astonishing 4,903 green HOV-lane decals to plug-in hybrids and range-extended electric cars during the first three months [Sic. Presumably weeks] of July. That’s almost a third of the total number of decals made available at the start of the month under SB 853. Are plug-in hybrids just too popular?"

While they are undoubtedly popular, I suspect this has more to do with people getting while the getting is good, as having them run out of the 40k was a wake-up call for those on the fence. Certainly the number of PiPs and Energis I'm seeing has shot up recently, although that can partly be explained by my just recently identifying some field marks to distinguish them at a glance from all angles at a reasonable distance - I undoubtedly assumed many were regular hybrid Prii/Fusions/C-Maxes earlier.
 
I have updated the image in the OP through August 2015. Both LEAF and Volt sales have been down this year, likely due to inexpensive gasoline as well as anticipation of upcoming model refreshes. At this point, LEAF and Volt sales are back to about even.

It will be interesting to see if there is any divergence going forward.
 
It will be interesting to see what happens rest of the year.

Both Nissan and GM have improved models. GM is delaying the national rollout of Volt. Gen 2 EVs are just a year or so away.

Next year, finally Outlander may launch here which can be a strong competitor to Volt.
 
I have updated the graph in the OP. I am also posting it here for comment:

Nissan_LEAFSales_As_Percentage_Of_Chevy_Volt_Sales_Throu.png


There is no shred of support for the title of this thread remaining in that plot!
 
The word is out regarding the resale value of the Leaf as the worst in the industry. This is likely a big factor in the decline in sales over the past year.
 
WetEV said:
Volt 2 is out, Leaf 2 is not.
Click to expand...
Agreed that's a big part of it.

Nissan's been a bit tight-lipped about LEAF 2. I suppose they are trying to preserve sales of the 2016 LEAF. It ain't working...

Frankly, I wouldn't mind having a 30-kWh LEAF, but mine is still working well.
 
RegGuheert said:
WetEV said:
Volt 2 is out, Leaf 2 is not.
Click to expand...
Agreed that's a big part of it.

Nissan's been a bit tight-lipped about LEAF 2. I suppose they are trying to preserve sales of the 2016 LEAF. It ain't working...

Frankly, I wouldn't mind having a 30-kWh LEAF, but mine is still working well.
Click to expand...
I'm certain that the 'affordable' (Sub-$40k base MSRP) PEV market will remain tilted in favor of PHEVs over BEVs at least until the Gen 2 BEVs start to arrive, and maybe until the generation after that. Last month, here's how affordable PEV sales went, per ievs (in decreasing order of sales):

PHEV, 4,501 (6 models: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 Sportback e-tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP)

BEV, 2,219 (8 models: LEAF; Spark EV; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; i-MiEV).

I think the public has voted very clearly against 80-110 mile EPA BEVs, at least at current prices. They've either tried them and find they don't suit, or else have decided that they're not worth it and will wait for Gen 2 to re-evaluate.
 
GRA said:
I'm certain that the 'affordable' (Sub-$40k base MSRP) PEV market will remain tilted in favor of PHEVs over BEVs at least until the Gen 2 BEVs start to arrive, and maybe until the generation after that. Last month, here's how affordable PEV sales went, per ievs (in decreasing order of sales):

PHEV, 4,501 (6 models: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 Sportback e-tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP); 67.0%

BEV, 2,219 (8 models: LEAF; Spark EV; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; i-MiEV); 33.0%

I think the public has voted very clearly against 80-110 mile EPA BEVs, at least at current prices. They've either tried them and find they don't suit, or else have decided that they're not worth it and will wait for Gen 2 to re-evaluate.
Click to expand...
Here's May's 'affordable' PEV totals (6,790 vs. 6,720 in April), very similar to last month, albeit a slight change in favor of BEVs %:

PHEV, 4,492 (6 models: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 Sportback e-tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP); 66.2%.

BEV, 2,298 (8 models: LEAF; Spark EV; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; i-MiEV); 33.8%.
 
GRA said:
GRA said:
I'm certain that the 'affordable' (Sub-$40k base MSRP) PEV market will remain tilted in favor of PHEVs over BEVs at least until the Gen 2 BEVs start to arrive, and maybe until the generation after that. Last month, here's how affordable PEV sales went, per ievs (in decreasing order of sales):

PHEV, 4,501 (6 models: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 Sportback e-tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP); 67.0%

BEV, 2,219 (8 models: LEAF; Spark EV; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; i-MiEV); 33.0%

I think the public has voted very clearly against 80-110 mile EPA BEVs, at least at current prices. They've either tried them and find they don't suit, or else have decided that they're not worth it and will wait for Gen 2 to re-evaluate.
Click to expand...
Here's May's 'affordable' PEV totals (6,790 vs. 6,720 in April), very similar to last month, albeit a slight change in favor of BEVs %:

PHEV, 4,492 (6 models: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 Sportback e-tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP); 66.2%.

BEV, 2,298 (8 models: LEAF; Spark EV; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; i-MiEV); 33.8%.
Click to expand...

If these numbers are for nationwide sales, the BEVs are at a significant disadvantage because LEAF, Smart ED, and i-MiEV are the only models available outside of California (and a few other CARB states). The PHEVs are available to everyone. Theoretically the Focus is available nationwide, but Ford is discouraging sales except in CARB states by making it very difficult to get them elsewhere.

Gerry
 
GerryAZ said:
GRA said:
GRA said:
I'm certain that the 'affordable' (Sub-$40k base MSRP) PEV market will remain tilted in favor of PHEVs over BEVs at least until the Gen 2 BEVs start to arrive, and maybe until the generation after that. Last month, here's how affordable PEV sales went, per ievs (in decreasing order of sales):

PHEV, 4,501 (6 models: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 Sportback e-tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP); 67.0%

BEV, 2,219 (8 models: LEAF; Spark EV; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; i-MiEV); 33.0%

I think the public has voted very clearly against 80-110 mile EPA BEVs, at least at current prices. They've either tried them and find they don't suit, or else have decided that they're not worth it and will wait for Gen 2 to re-evaluate.
Click to expand...
Here's May's 'affordable' PEV totals (6,790 vs. 6,720 in April), very similar to last month, albeit a slight change in favor of BEVs %:

PHEV, 4,492 (6 models: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 Sportback e-tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP); 66.2%.

BEV, 2,298 (8 models: LEAF; Spark EV; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; i-MiEV); 33.8%.
Click to expand...

If these numbers are for nationwide sales, the BEVs are at a significant disadvantage because LEAF, Smart ED, and i-MiEV are the only models available outside of California (and a few other CARB states). The PHEVs are available to everyone. Theoretically the Focus is available nationwide, but Ford is discouraging sales except in CARB states by making it very difficult to get them elsewhere.

Gerry
Click to expand...


+1 My thoughts exactly!

I find it odd that the auto makers design the non-compliance BEVs to be as ugly and dorky looking as possible so that very few will want them. Yet the PHEVs look like normal ICEVs for the most part. I'm not so sure it's only because of the 80 - 110 mile EPA range. I bet if the auto makers made a nice, sporty looking BEV that performed well with around a 110 mile range more people would buy them.

BEVs that look like and perform like the upcoming Tesla Model 3 would have sold just fine even if they started out with a 80 - 110 mile EPA range.

Everyone I talk to about my Leaf says the same thing, they would buy a BEV if they looked like mainstream ICEVs!
 
rcm4453 said:
GerryAZ said:
GRA said:
Here's May's 'affordable' PEV totals (6,790 vs. 6,720 in April), very similar to last month, albeit a slight change in favor of BEVs %:

PHEV, 4,492 (6 models: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 Sportback e-tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP); 66.2%.

BEV, 2,298 (8 models: LEAF; Spark EV; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; i-MiEV); 33.8%.
Click to expand...

If these numbers are for nationwide sales, the BEVs are at a significant disadvantage because LEAF, Smart ED, and i-MiEV are the only models available outside of California (and a few other CARB states). The PHEVs are available to everyone. Theoretically the Focus is available nationwide, but Ford is discouraging sales except in CARB states by making it very difficult to get them elsewhere.

Gerry
Click to expand...


+1 My thoughts exactly!

I find it odd that the auto makers design the non-compliance BEVs to be as ugly and dorky looking as possible so that very few will want them. Yet the PHEVs look like normal ICEVs for the most part. I'm not so sure it's only because of the 80 - 110 mile EPA range. I bet if the auto makers made a nice, sporty looking BEV that performed well with around a 110 mile range more people would buy them.

BEVs that look like and perform like the upcoming Tesla Model 3 would have sold just fine even if they started out with a 80 - 110 mile EPA range.

Everyone I talk to about my Leaf says the same thing, they would buy a BEV if they looked like mainstream ICEVs!
Click to expand...
The e-Golf's about as normal looking as could be compared to the gas/diesel Golfs (it has very discreet distinguishing marks), and will soon have around 124+ EPA miles, but I have no doubt that if VW were to bring the Golf GTE (PHEV) here it would vastly outsell the e-Golf, just as it does in Europe. As it is, the recently introduced A3 Sportback e-tron is essentially a Golt GTE as far as the powertrain goes, but several thousand dollars more expensive. Here's last month's U.S. sales (per ievs):

A3, 361. e-Golf, 269. It's hard to see any major increase in e-Golf sales when they go to 124 miles EPA, with affordable 200 mile BEVs just around the corner. 107 miles EPA sure hasn't helped the LEAF.
 
GerryAZ said:
GRA said:
GRA said:
I'm certain that the 'affordable' (Sub-$40k base MSRP) PEV market will remain tilted in favor of PHEVs over BEVs at least until the Gen 2 BEVs start to arrive, and maybe until the generation after that. Last month, here's how affordable PEV sales went, per ievs (in decreasing order of sales):

PHEV, 4,501 (6 models: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 Sportback e-tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP); 67.0%

BEV, 2,219 (8 models: LEAF; Spark EV; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; i-MiEV); 33.0%

I think the public has voted very clearly against 80-110 mile EPA BEVs, at least at current prices. They've either tried them and find they don't suit, or else have decided that they're not worth it and will wait for Gen 2 to re-evaluate.
Click to expand...
Here's May's 'affordable' PEV totals (6,790 vs. 6,720 in April), very similar to last month, albeit a slight change in favor of BEVs %:

PHEV, 4,492 (6 models: Volt; Fusion Energi; C-Max Energi; A3 Sportback e-tron; Sonata PHEV; PiP); 66.2%.

BEV, 2,298 (8 models: LEAF; Spark EV; 500e; e-Golf; Soul EV; Focus Electric; Smart ED; i-MiEV); 33.8%.
Click to expand...

If these numbers are for nationwide sales, the BEVs are at a significant disadvantage because LEAF, Smart ED, and i-MiEV are the only models available outside of California (and a few other CARB states). The PHEVs are available to everyone. Theoretically the Focus is available nationwide, but Ford is discouraging sales except in CARB states by making it very difficult to get them elsewhere.

Gerry
Click to expand...
Yes, they're nationwide numbers. If your claim were correct, 'affordable' PHEVs would always have outsold 'affordable' BEVs if both were available, but that wasn't the case until recently. BEVs are sold primarily in a limited number of states due to compliance issues, yes. But it's also because there's only a significant market for them in those states; most of the rest of the country doesn't see the point. PHEVs can be sold anywhere, because they aren't reliant on a still very spotty public charging infrastructure, and they can be a sole car, something that's very difficult for short range BEVs. 200 mile BEVs will make that a more reasonable option for some, but the all-around capability/utility still falls far short of a comparably-priced PHEV, which can do any trip that a purely fossil-fueled sibling can without any differences.

Even more critical, Cailfornia accounts for something around 40% of all PEV sales, but as of last December the Green single-occupant HOV lane stickers ran out for PHEVs, and the number hasn't been increased; BEVs still qualify for an unlimited number of White S-O HOV stickers. S-O HOV stickers are a _huge_ perk, worth far more to the average PEV buyer (given their higher than average income levels) in commute time savings than the state rebates for PHEVs and BEVs. I've yet to find a breakdown showing the effect on PHEV sales in California of the end of green stickers, but it had to be substantial. And yet, despite CA's ~40% market share, PHEVs are increasing their sales lead over BEVs, and I see plenty of brand new Volt 2's, Fusion Energis and other 'affordable' PHEVs running around here.

I've frankly been surprised that I've seen so many, as I thought the lack of stickers would have caused a much more noticeable drop off. It seems that PHEVs are now being recognized as reasonable car choices even without the stickers (but they're still dependent on subsidies). I very much doubt that first gen 'affordable' BEVs could say the same, given the lack of sales despite the continuing availability of White stickers.
 
LeftieBiker said:
The Volt would be the exception, though. If you don't plug in your Volt, you're going to get mediocre fuel economy and, I assume, emissions levels as well.
Click to expand...
43/41/42 mpg combined is mediocre fuel economy? Compared to what, the Cruze Limited Eco with an automatic, at 26/39/31 combined (28/42/33 combined if you opt for the stick)?
 
GRA said:
rcm4453 said:
GerryAZ said:
If these numbers are for nationwide sales, the BEVs are at a significant disadvantage because LEAF, Smart ED, and i-MiEV are the only models available outside of California (and a few other CARB states). The PHEVs are available to everyone. Theoretically the Focus is available nationwide, but Ford is discouraging sales except in CARB states by making it very difficult to get them elsewhere.

Gerry
Click to expand...


+1 My thoughts exactly!

I find it odd that the auto makers design the non-compliance BEVs to be as ugly and dorky looking as possible so that very few will want them. Yet the PHEVs look like normal ICEVs for the most part. I'm not so sure it's only because of the 80 - 110 mile EPA range. I bet if the auto makers made a nice, sporty looking BEV that performed well with around a 110 mile range more people would buy them.

BEVs that look like and perform like the upcoming Tesla Model 3 would have sold just fine even if they started out with a 80 - 110 mile EPA range.

Everyone I talk to about my Leaf says the same thing, they would buy a BEV if they looked like mainstream ICEVs!
Click to expand...
The e-Golf's about as normal looking as could be compared to the gas/diesel Golfs( it has very discreet distinguishing marks), and will soon have around 124+ EPA miles, but I have no doubt that if VW were to bring the Golf GTE (PHEV) here it would vastly outsell the e-Golf, just as it does in Europe. As it is, the recently introduced A3 Sportback e-tron is essentially a Golt GTE as far as the powertrain goes, but several thousand dollars more expensive. Here's last month's U.S. sales (per ievs):

A3, 361. e-Golf, 269. It's hard to see any major increase in e-Golf sales when they go to 124 miles EPA, with affordable 200 mile BEVs just around the corner. 107 miles EPA sure hasn't helped the LEAF.
Click to expand...


You're missing my point. Are the BEVs you mentioned available nationwide like the Leaf is?

Those BEVs are also pretty plain (ugly) by most peoples taste including mine.

I said a nice, sporty looking BEV like the Tesla Model 3. You mean to tell me the only reason over 400,000 people reserved the Tesla Model 3 was because it will have a 200 mile range?!? I don't think so! It's because it has attractive styling and decent performance too, range isn't the only factor for the consumer. I'm willing to bet if Tesla had a Model 3 BEV that came out a couple years ago for the same price as the Leaf with the same range it would have sold WAY better!! I'm also willing to bet if the Leaf 2.0 came out with a 200 mile range but was super dorky and ugly looking it wouldn't sell all that well.

It's a fact looks and performance matter to a lot of car buyers, not just range.

So to sum it up....BEVs are losing to PHEVs not because people prefer PHEVs over BEVs it's because there's no BEV on the market that meets the following criteria:

A) Available nationwide like most PHEVs are
B) Has attractive styling most consumers want
c) Has decent performance
D) Decent price point
 

Latest posts

Back
Top