2015 Bar drop predictions

I'm trying to get a handle on how to predict the drop of my first bar on my 2015 Leaf. Granted I only have 3400 miles on the car, but I'm trying to interpret the data to figure out how many miles I will get with 12 bars. I'm not sure if the car modifies the distribution over time or not. (ex. After 15K miles, will I still show 12 bars, but lose the first one after driving for just a few miles? Or does the each bar simply represent a percentage of total battery capacity?)

Anyways, I charged to 100% and measured my capacity. 289 Gids, 22.40 KWH, 97.2% SOC and then drove my commute until I dropped my first range bar, probably about 1/2 mile further actually since I had to find a spot to pull over. Here is the data I got.

259 Gids
20.07 Kwh
89.68% SOC

Does this mean that when a 100% charge reading only yields me slightly more than the above, I am about to lose my first bar? Kind of hard to predict now, but my highest reading when the car was brand new was 292Gids and 22.63kwh. So it looks like I'm losing about .25kwh per 3,000 miles of driving. At that rate I should lose my first bar at around 27,000 miles? Does that seem about right?

I'm gonna try to repeat in the next few days and take readings at 10 bars, 9 bars, 8 bars. Am I correct to assume that my readings will be most accurate the newer the car is?

Bottom line...we have no clue yet.

I would hope you'd do better than we did, what with the Lizard pack and all. I lost my first bar at around 30,000 miles and 30 months of ownership.

I'd be extremely happy with 30K miles before 1st bar drops. We bought rather than lease because the purchase incentives were way too good to pass up. Likely we are going to sell it and buy a newer (extended range EV) in 3 years, I'd love to be able to sell it in 3 years with 11 bars, or worst case scenario 10.

tkdbrusco said:

I'd love to be able to sell it in 3 years with 11 bars, or worst case scenario 10.

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I lost my second bar at 34,000 miles/34 months, so chances are you could well be down to 10 bars if the new pack doesn't do as well as expected.

Currently your best tool is Stoaty's Battery Capacity Loss Aging Model, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...d2ppVEViZmd0ckJxME95N0U4SUE&usp=sharing#gid=6 , combined with LeafSpy or one of the other tools for reading battery parameters.

Nissan has released no info on how much better the 'Lizard' battery is, so about all you can do is document what your battery is doing as it ages, and compare it with Stoaty's model, which does a good job on 2011 and 2012 batteries. There seem to be small changes in 2013 and 2014 batteries which are not fully understood yet. And of course, we're ALL hoping that you'll see your battery losing capacity at a much slower rate than the early batteries did.

Don't get too excited about rapid changes occurring in the transition between summer and fall or winter. Most of this is a cyclical phenomenon related to battery temperature. Cold lithium ion batteries have a significantly smaller capacity than warm batteries.

-Karl

Back in 2011 I speculated Nissan would design the car to hold all twelve bars when the typical lease is returned in 36 months and 36,000 miles.
Boy was I wrong. I hope for your sake the new battery can do it :|

tkdbrusco said:

Does this mean that when a 100% charge reading only yields me slightly more than the above, I am about to lose my first bar?

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No. You seem to be under the impression that "losing your first bar" means that you will no longer have twelve charge bars. That is simply not the case. There are TWO sets of battery bars and the car always shows twelve charge bars when the battery is full, regardless of how degraded the battery becomes. Those are the large bars which you see disappearing each time you drive.

The capacity bars are the thin bars to the right of the charge bars. Those bars disappear at approximately the following levels of remaining capacity:

Bar 12: 85%
Bar 11: 78.75%
Bar 10: 72.5%
Bar 9: 66.25%
Bar 8: 60%
Bar 7: 53.75%
Bar 6: 47.5%
Bar 5: 41.25%
Bar 4: 35%

The behavior of the capacity bars can only be determined by observing the behavior of the capacity bars, not be observing the behavior of the charge bars.

kolmstead said:

Currently your best tool is Stoaty's Battery Capacity Loss Aging Model, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...d2ppVEViZmd0ckJxME95N0U4SUE&usp=sharing#gid=6 , combined with LeafSpy or one of the other tools for reading battery parameters.

Nissan has released no info on how much better the 'Lizard' battery is, so about all you can do is document what your battery is doing as it ages, and compare it with Stoaty's model, which does a good job on 2011 and 2012 batteries. There seem to be small changes in 2013 and 2014 batteries which are not fully understood yet. And of course, we're ALL hoping that you'll see your battery losing capacity at a much slower rate than the early batteries did.
-Karl

Click to expand...

As great as that model is, I wouldn't bother to look at it if you have a 2015 LEAF. From what it predicts there should be hundreds of instances of 2013 LEAFs with multiple bars of capacity loss as there was with 2011 LEAFs at this point - but very few 2013 owners have reported even one bar loss (only two that I know of). It is clear that starting with model year 2013 owners are reporting battery loss to this forum at a drastically reduced rate compared to the previous two years. Since 2013 owners do frequently post on this forum for lots of other problems and questions I don't think this is just a change in owner behavior - almost certainly something changed with the battery.

cgaydos said:

...there should be hundreds of instances of 2013 LEAFs with multiple bars of capacity loss as there was with 2011 LEAFs at this point - but very few 2013 owners have reported even one bar loss (only two that I know of). It is clear that starting with model year 2013 owners are reporting battery loss to this forum at a drastically reduced rate compared to the previous two years. Since 2013 owners do frequently post on this forum for lots of other problems and questions I don't think this is just a change in owner behavior - almost certainly something changed with the battery.

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And, almost certainly IMO, this is the result of Nissan adjusting the LBC gid calculation results to show lower capacity loss in the newer LEAF packs.

Reacting to the near-hysteria resulting from the LBC's tendency to overestimate gid/capacity bar/available capacity loss in 2011-12 LEAFs, Nissan has simply given you a new set of gid reports (of unknown accuracy) to waste your time with.

The lesson from this sad story?

If you want to know your actual average available battery capacity, and your loss of available capacity over time, for any LEAF, monitor the kWh it accepts from the EVSE, or the kWh expended in range/capacity tests.

edatoakrun said:

cgaydos said:

...there should be hundreds of instances of 2013 LEAFs with multiple bars of capacity loss as there was with 2011 LEAFs at this point - but very few 2013 owners have reported even one bar loss (only two that I know of). It is clear that starting with model year 2013 owners are reporting battery loss to this forum at a drastically reduced rate compared to the previous two years. Since 2013 owners do frequently post on this forum for lots of other problems and questions I don't think this is just a change in owner behavior - almost certainly something changed with the battery.

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And, almost certainly IMO, this is the result of Nissan adjusting the LBC gid calculation results to show lower capacity loss in the newer LEAF packs.

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I'm open to this idea, given the total absence of quantitative evidence and our experience with the P3227 update on 2011 and 2012s. But if this were true I would expect owners of 2013s from hot climates posting here of how their range has plummeted but they still have all of their capacity bars. Instead when we do see owners of 2013s post here the comments tend to support the idea of less range loss.

Also, remember that we do know the battery changed from 2012 to 2013, even though we know little about that change. This is because replacement batteries require a special adapter harness for the 2011 and 2012 but not for later model years.

cgaydos said:

...if this were true I would expect owners of 2013s from hot climates posting here of how their range has plummeted but they still have all of their capacity bars....

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It is very difficult to notice a relatively small loss of average available capacity through the noise of the other factors causing large variations in range and kWh charge accepted.

The 2011-12 battery degradation imbroglio started when the bars began to drop, not before.

Early Capacity Losses-Was(Lost a bar...down to 11)


http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=30&t=8802" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Posted: Wed May 09, 2012 9:24 am


azdre

Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2010 7:28 am
Posts: 171
Location: Phoenix, AZ

In the last few weeks, we've lost one of the 'available' bars (see picture). We've put 17,000 miles on it in 14 months. I immediately called the dealer, and he said it's normal...

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cgaydos said:

Also, remember that we do know the battery changed from 2012 to 2013, even though we know little about that change. This is because replacement batteries require a special adapter harness for the 2011 and 2012 but not for later model years.

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The adapter harness is more around the changes of where some of the electronics live in the car (hence the hump behind the passenger seat disappearing at the same time). For all any of us know they could have multiple chemistries within a model year, or have made no changes until the model year 2015.

Unless the class action suit forces some document disclosure, we likely never will know.

Does anyone have a year with the new 215 Lizard battery yet?
I sure hope it holds up in the heat in Phoenix. I got a 213 after turning my 2011 in and would have loved to get the new heat tolerant lizard but they were not out yet.

My 2013 Focus is 2 years old and has not lost 1 % yet in the Phoenix heat. Liquid cooling is amazing. I predict it will last 20 years at 80% or better. I use a SCAN GAUGE to check it and we also check all FORD plugins and they have good results. I show 90% when charged since day one since FORD leaves 10% down to save bat life.
The Focus guess-o-meter shows 100-130 miles range when I charge up. I am very impressed.

jstack6 said:

Does anyone have a year with the new 215 Lizard battery yet?
I sure hope it holds up in the heat in Phoenix. I got a 213 after turning my 2011 in and would have loved to get the new heat tolerant lizard but they were not out yet.

My 2013 Focus is 2 years old and has not lost 1 % yet in the Phoenix heat. Liquid cooling is amazing. I predict it will last 20 years at 80% or better. I use a SCAN GAUGE to check it and we also check all FORD plugins and they have good results. I show 90% when charged since day one since FORD leaves 10% down to save bat life.
The Focus guess-o-meter shows 100-130 miles range when I charge up. I am very impressed.

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I have a 2015 and I live in Surprise (For those that don't know its the west valley of Phoenix)

I have a LONG commute out to Scottsdale and just in a few weeks I have 1200 miles on the car. If there are still battery problems, I should see them.

I am not new to EV's so I don't typically run til VLB, I will opportunity charge at lunch or on the way home. (I have the No charge to charge plan)

My guessometer ranges anywhere from high 90's to 103. I have a leaf DD coming, and will have a better idea of where the battery pack is actually at.

mikesus said:

I have a 2015 and I live in Surprise (For those that don't know its the west valley of Phoenix)

I have a LONG commute out to Scottsdale and just in a few weeks I have 1200 miles on the car. If there are still battery problems, I should see them. My guessometer ranges anywhere from high 90's to 103. I have a leaf DD coming, and will have a better idea of where the battery pack is actually at.

Click to expand...

Yes, pleas keep us posted. That would be awesome!

mikesus said:

I have a 2015 and I live in Surprise (For those that don't know its the west valley of Phoenix)
I have a LONG commute out to Scottsdale and just in a few weeks I have 1200 miles on the car. If there are still battery problems, I should see them.
I am not new to EV's so I don't typically run til VLB, I will opportunity charge at lunch or on the way home. (I have the No charge to charge plan)
My guessometer ranges anywhere from high 90's to 103. I have a leaf DD coming, and will have a better idea of where the battery pack is actually at.

Click to expand...

Looking forward to reading the stats on your 2015. Who has the most miles on a 2015 so far ?
I would really like to know if the new battery will last longer than the 2012 version.

I think OP is confusing between charge bars and capacity bars. There is really no co-relation. You will always have 12 capacity bars even as you keep losing capacity (and capacity bars).

RegGuheert has provided a good overview.

KJD said:

mikesus said:

I have a 2015 and I live in Surprise (For those that don't know its the west valley of Phoenix)
I have a LONG commute out to Scottsdale and just in a few weeks I have 1200 miles on the car. If there are still battery problems, I should see them.
I am not new to EV's so I don't typically run til VLB, I will opportunity charge at lunch or on the way home. (I have the No charge to charge plan)
My guessometer ranges anywhere from high 90's to 103. I have a leaf DD coming, and will have a better idea of where the battery pack is actually at.

Click to expand...

Looking forward to reading the stats on your 2015. Who has the most miles on a 2015 so far ?
I would really like to know if the new battery will last longer than the 2012 version.

Click to expand...

I based my purchase on this report...

http://www.ovienmhada.com/2014/03/24/owning-a-nissan-leaf-in-arizona/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"I’ve had my new battery (non-desert battery) for 13 months now, and I haven’t lost a single bar yet, just by following the steps I recommended in this article. I haven’t noticed any degradation in range either. On my original battery I lost my first bar in 8 months, and my second just a month or two later."

So 13 months and no degradation. Seems like they got it resolved...

We hadn't lost any at 13 months on our 2012.

What is the useable battery capacity? 21.8 kwh? It seems like my 2013 model is doing fine in California's central valley heat. Chargepoint consistently shows 17.7 kwh put into my battery when charging to 100% from about 32% (where I usually end up once at work). Adding 32% to 17.7 kwh is 23.4 kwh, then subtracting about 10% for charger inefficiency is 21 kwh. VERY rough calculation, but I haven't noticed any sort of degradation or range loss as far as I can tell.

I'll be curious to see more stats on 2013+ models, and 2015+ as well.