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SageBrush said:
How much did you pay for the first LEAF and how long until you bought another ?

28k after tax breaks, and 2 years. Became filling of sandwich on I405, totaled by insurance.

SageBrush said:
How much did you pay for the second LEAF and how long do you think it will be until it does not meet your present needs ?

Less than 2k after tax breaks and insurance. I drove a new car, LEAF #1, for two years for less than $100 per month, and less than 10 cents per mile.

How long will I own current LEAF? Can't tell. Might be quite a while. Battery should last another 6 or more years, based on the loss over the first 4 1/2 years and 45k miles. Might upgrade to longer range to eliminate any need for DCQC stops on the roughly twice a month longer trips.

SageBrush said:
What other cars do you keep to supplement the LEAF ?

A convertible. There isn't a realistic electric convertible, or the wife would have bought one by now.

SageBrush said:
The Tesla value is in not having to keep an ICE around, and having tech that will last a long time.

There is no advantage in a Tesla for me.
 
lorenfb said:
garsh said:
Dooglas said:
Remind me of the out-the-door price for a Tesla S or a Tesla 3 these days.
Model 3 starts at $49k currently, but the $35k version should be available early next year.

Amazing, that some still believe this!

don't worry lorenfb, in 3 months you can either say you told us so, or eat crow. the time is coming soon.
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
lorenfb said:
garsh said:
Model 3 starts at $49k currently, but the $35k version should be available early next year.

Amazing, that some still believe this!

don't worry lorenfb, in 3 months you can either say you told us so, or eat crow. the time is coming soon.

I have a couple of co-workers who put in deposits for the $35k Model 3 on Day One. As late as last Spring, they were promised that their cars would be delivered to them by the end of Summer 2018, maybe end of July. That time has come and gone. One ended up upgrading to the bigger battery, the other is still waiting. So there's reason to be skeptical.

I'm in the "I'll believe it when I see it" camp.
 
I also believe the base 3 is still coming. Ramp up just took longer than expected. Tesla needs the money from the top end first.

Much better value than LEAF.
 
cwerdna said:
"$35K" version was originally supposed to be available to order Nov 2017 (https://web.archive.org/web/20170731003139/https://www.tesla.com/support/model-3-reservations-faq).
Yep.

We all know that Tesla has never been able to keep a deadline (sorry - an "aspirational goal"). But they've always delivered the vehicles eventually. And when they do, they're really good, and keep getting better.

lorenfb said:
Amazing, that some still believe this!
Which part? That it will be available early next year, or that they'll make it at all?
 
garsh said:
cwerdna said:
"$35K" version was originally supposed to be available to order Nov 2017 (https://web.archive.org/web/20170731003139/https://www.tesla.com/support/model-3-reservations-faq).
Yep.

We all know that Tesla has never been able to keep a deadline (sorry - an "aspirational goal"). But they've always delivered the vehicles eventually. And when they do, they're really good, and keep getting better.

lorenfb said:
Amazing, that some still believe this!
Which part? That it will be available early next year, or that they'll make it at all?

Both! The M3 at $35K will not be profitable for Tesla, given its overhead.
 
lorenfb said:
The M3 at $35K will not be profitable for Tesla, given its overhead.

Wrong question. The key question would be will the M3 SR cover marginal cost? If so, then even if 100% M3 SR would be losing money, some mix of SR and LR might be more profitable than making fewer cars that are all M3 LRs.
 
WetEV said:
lorenfb said:
The M3 at $35K will not be profitable for Tesla, given its overhead.

Wrong question. The key question would be will the M3 SR cover marginal cost? If so, then even if 100% M3 SR would be losing money, some mix of SR and LR might be more profitable than making fewer cars that are all M3 LRs.
I don't doubt that Tesla will absorb losses in the near term with SR production, just as they did with the LR. That however is not their longer term plan. My vague recollection is that Elon thinks the SR will be sustainably profitable at 500k Model 3 production a year.

Now that I have experience with my Model 3 though, I'd say that the real problem with the SR is that the battery is not large enough to be an ICE replacement in the USA that easily justifies the $35k price. Perhaps (probably ?) a different story in China and the EU.

In any case, the Model 3 LR is a general purpose, sporty, hot car that costs about 25 cents a mile TCO (excluding insurance.) Tesla has a new, large market segment all to itself for a long time.
 
garsh said:
cwerdna said:
"$35K" version was originally supposed to be available to order Nov 2017 (https://web.archive.org/web/20170731003139/https://www.tesla.com/support/model-3-reservations-faq).
Yep.

We all know that Tesla has never been able to keep a deadline (sorry - an "aspirational goal"). But they've always delivered the vehicles eventually. And when they do, they're really good, and keep getting better.
They cancelled the 40 kWh S and delivered the few that ordered at the time they could 60 kWh S software limited to 40.

As for "really good", it depends what you're looking for. In terms of straight line performance, range and performance, performance on standardized crash tests, (and an excellent DC FC network) yes. It helps that they're doing this by pricing their (already expensive) vehicles in a way that causes them to lose billions of $ every year.

In terms of reliability, not so good like the folks who were on their 7th or 8th drive unit on their S: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=531626#p531626 or the laundry list of repairs on Edmunds's S: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/wrap-up.html including 3 DU replacements. Replacement rate of DUs on early years of S was terrible: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/two-thirds-of-early-model-s-drivetrains-may-fail-by-60-000miles.58763/page-2#post-1279598. https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/car-reliability-histories/ at the bottom has average problem rates for vehicles for a given model year within a 12 month window, except for the latest where it's shorter.

The Model X is an expensive engineering and reliability disaster in large part due to the front and rear doors. I avoid vehicles with worse than average reliability rating. Model X was dead last at https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability/10-least-reliable-cars/. The previous year, X was in the middle of the bottom 10: https://web.archive.org/web/20170706025531/https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability/10-least-reliable-cars/.

Edmunds's X was terrible from a reliability POV: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-x/2016/long-term-road-test/wrap-up.html. I have many pointers to terrible X reliability and those are just a fraction of the posts on TMC about it.

Edmund's 3 had a rocky start: https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/2017/long-term-road-test/2017-tesla-model-3-monthly-update-for-april-2018.html but seems to have gotten better. I have pointers to over a dozen causes of drive unit failure on the Model 3.

How many motor/gearbox replacements have we seen here on MNL for any reason? It's virtually nil since the Leaf came out.
 
cwerdna said:
It helps that they're doing this by pricing their (already expensive) vehicles in a way that causes them to lose billions of $ every year.
Each S and X sold is a money-maker. The only reason why Tesla "loses" money is because they're investing in future development and production.
In terms of reliability, not so good like the folks who were on their 7th or 8th drive unit on their S
Yep, bad drive units in the beginning. They've been replaced under warranty. Current drive unit warranty is 8 years, unlimited mileage. There aren't many reports of bad drive units in S or X lately. Those initial growing pains are long over.
How many motor/gearbox replacements have we seen here on MNL for any reason?
How many battery degradation threads have their been?

The Leaf is a decent little car, but it has a HUGE FLAW - the battery. I understand why Nissan chose the cell chemistry that they did - It's extremely safe:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jz37WycW-7E
There have been zero reports of a Leaf battery catching on fire. But that's the only redeeming quality. It degrades terribly with heat, and the pack has no thermal management to speak of. I've seen no indications that Nissan has taken steps to improve their batteries yet. That's why I didn't buy a second Leaf to replace my first one.
 
garsh said:
The only reason why Tesla "loses" money is because they're investing in future development and production.

Right! A typical corporate phrase used when near Chapter 11, e.g. a phrase used by Sears a few years ago.
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
lorenfb said:
garsh said:
Model 3 starts at $49k currently, but the $35k version should be available early next year.
Amazing, that some still believe this!
don't worry lorenfb, in 3 months you can either say you told us so, or eat crow. the time is coming soon.
I noticed that Elon Musk recently said that the base model 3 will be available by the end of this year but will have a price somewhere in the 40s. In other words, there is not and will not be a $35K Tesla.
 
Dooglas said:
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
lorenfb said:
Amazing, that some still believe this!
don't worry lorenfb, in 3 months you can either say you told us so, or eat crow. the time is coming soon.
I noticed that Elon Musk recently said that the base model 3 will be available by the end of this year but will have a price somewhere in the 40s. In other words, there is not and will not be a $35K Tesla.

You might want to check your notices more closely. The Model 3 MR ( medium range ) isn't the base model, and is available for order now for $46 (premium interior required). The $35k base model 3 is awaiting a newly designed smaller battery pack, and that's expected to be built in February.
 
Oils4AsphaultOnly said:
Dooglas said:
I noticed that Elon Musk recently said that the base model 3 will be available by the end of this year but will have a price somewhere in the 40s. In other words, there is not and will not be a $35K Tesla.

You might want to check your notices more closely. The Model 3 MR ( medium range ) isn't the base model, and is available for order now for $46 (premium interior required). The $35k base model 3 is awaiting a newly designed smaller battery pack, and that's expected to be built in February.
Yep. Tesla hasn't been able to ramp up production enough for the SR ($35k Standard Range) version to be profitable yet. They created the MR ($46k Medium Range) car so that people who are waiting for the SR might be able to afford an MR now before the full federal rebate expires (making it $38.5k after rebate).

Dooglas may end up being right and they'll never get production at a high enough rate to make the SR profitable. But I wouldn't bet on it. I do think it may end up getting delayed until summer. We will see in about 6 months time.
 
garsh said:
Yep. Tesla hasn't been able to ramp up production enough for the SR ($35k Standard Range) version to be profitable yet. They created the MR ($46k Medium Range) car so that people who are waiting for the SR might be able to afford an MR now before the full federal rebate expires (making it $38.5k after rebate).

Dooglas may end up being right and they'll never get production at a high enough rate to make the SR profitable. But I wouldn't bet on it. I do think it may end up getting delayed until summer. We will see in about 6 months time.
As far as profitability goes, Tesla has not figured how to turn that trick for any of the model 3s - and their current financial numbers make it look doubtful they will achieve that in the foreseeable future (next 6 months, for example).
 
Dooglas said:
As far as profitability goes, Tesla has not figured how to turn that trick for any of the model 3s - and their current financial numbers make it look doubtful they will achieve that in the foreseeable future (next 6 months, for example).

Tesla says the gross margin of Model 3s is over 20%
What in the rest of the numbers turns that into a loss?

At an average Model 3 production rate of about 4,300 per week in Q3 (excluding planned shutdowns), Model 3 gross margin grew
very significantly to above 20%. The mix of the Model 3 Performance version was only slightly higher than the Performance mix of
Model S and X. This strong margin growth was driven by a higher production rate while keeping fixed costs stable, significant
reductions in manufacturing costs through lower labor hours per unit, lower scrap rate, lower material costs, and higher average
selling price.

http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/725970e6-eda5-47ab-96e1-422d4045f799
 
Dooglas said:
As far as profitability goes, Tesla has not figured how to turn that trick for any of the model 3s - and their current financial numbers make it look doubtful they will achieve that in the foreseeable future (next 6 months, for example).
Tesla was actually overall profitable last quarter. That's right - they actually made money. They plan on being profitable in Q4 as well. As WetEV points out, the current versions of Model 3 being sold are already over 20% gross margin. You can argue that they won't be able to sustain that if you like, but to say that they haven't figured out how to turn a profit on the Model 3 is just straight-up lying. They're doing it.

Getting back on topic, now that the weather has gotten colder, the Leaf doesn't even try to provide regen anymore. I probably wouldn't be as upset about the 50% decrease in range so much if it wasn't for the fact that Nissan basically turns off regen for a degraded battery. I just replaced the brake pads at about 90k miles, so hopefully I won't have to replace them again before I get rid of the car (in ~3 years most likely).
 
Don't know what creative accounting Tesla used to convince some people that they made profit in 2017 but they definitely did not:

https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/7/16986396/tesla-2017-full-year-earnings-model-3-production

Not being a hater, but it's misinformation that needed correcting
 
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