2016 Leaf or wait for the 2017?

Stanton said:

DNAinaGoodWay said:

The OP would have difficulty leasing with a 65 mile RT commute anyway. That's like 17k per year without weekends.

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Finally someone with some common sense!
If you're going to keep any car for 10 years, isn't it obvious you should buy it? And if you have to lease to afford it, doesn't that mean you can't afford it? We can talk about all the other "will he have enough range" stuff 'till the cows come home.

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Why not lease it and get the $7,500 tax credit right away (lower payments) then buy it at the end of the lease and keep it another 7 years? Going over on miles won't matter in this situation.

rcm4453 said:

Stanton said:

DNAinaGoodWay said:

The OP would have difficulty leasing with a 65 mile RT commute anyway. That's like 17k per year without weekends.

Click to expand...

Finally someone with some common sense!
If you're going to keep any car for 10 years, isn't it obvious you should buy it? And if you have to lease to afford it, doesn't that mean you can't afford it? We can talk about all the other "will he have enough range" stuff 'till the cows come home.

Click to expand...

Why not lease it and get the $7,500 tax credit right away (lower payments) then buy it at the end of the lease and keep it another 7 years? Going over on miles won't matter in this situation.

Click to expand...

That's no different than buying it to "get the $7500 tax credit right away"...and the miles are irrelevant too. :roll:
I think we've strayed OT, but if you know you're going to keep the car, just buy it!

In my case, as in others I don't have a $7,500 tax liability to get the whole credit so only way to get it is to lease. Too bad it's not an instant rebate so more people in my situation could actually buy instead of lease. I agree things have gotten way off topic.

So, in short:

* The only way a 2016 or 2017 leaf would be affordable to the OP is through leasing. Because of the miles driven, he would have to buy it when or before the lease ends, or pay a lot of overage on miles.

* The 2016 would only work long-term if the battery degradation were less than has been typical for Leafs in warm climates. The climate in Cleveland is not especially warm, although hot spells are not unknown.

* The 2016 Leaf SV should be affordable to lease by the end of this year. The 2017 will almost certainly cost more, and will, like the 2016, be very expensive for at least most of the first year it is available.

So the OP has to decide how long he can wait for the car, and how much more he can pay for the additional range of the 2017. Have I missed anything?

I have a similar situation. My wife does 65 miles roundtrip daily 5 days a week. Comes to around 18,000 miles/year. I do 86 miles round trip but only 3 days a week. Comes to around 18,000 miles/year. We are both considering getting into the 2016 SV, but for now sharing a 2016 SV off and on while the other one has to drive a gas commuter.

Beyond 15,000 miles/year, leases get a bit tricky. The cost of over mileage is so high, you might as well buy the vehicle out. Downside to buying it upfront is no body knows the resale value of the car will be in 3 years. You are committing to a price today without knowing what it will be worth in 3 years when you do have an option to rent for 3 years and then decide on buying.

Here's what we did.

We leased our 2016 SV for 15,000 miles/year and decided to prepay an additional 3,000 miles/year. If you prepay, it is 10c/mile - essentially $300 extra/year. If you pay later at the time of return it is 15 cents/mile, much more expensive but still low compared to Volt or any other leased car that typically charges 25 cents/mile. I just learnt that Kia Soul EV charges 15 cents/mile if you pre-pay & 20 cents if you pay later.

We will end up putting about 54,000 miles at the end of 3 years. I am less hopeful the 2016 Leaf will remain useful for the 86 mile commute by then but it may still be useful for the 65 mile commute all the way to 100,000 miles. Someone has published a projected 2016 30kwh battery range degradation charted against miles on this forum. Just search it out.

Depending on how the battery performs & what the actual resale value seems in 2019, we will make the decision to buyout or return the 2016 SV towards the end of the lease term.

Several people who bought the 2013 Leaf upfront are now repenting because Nissan is offering huge discounts on residual values for lease returns.

How it will work with 2016 lease returns in 2019 is anybody's guess.

I think, in OP's situation buying upfront may not be a good idea. Prepaying extra miles is an option worth considering.

LeftieBiker said:

I'm a Prius owner and do a pretty good job of hypermiling (65 mpg summer, 55 mpg winter, average 60 mpg year round, keep speeds at 55 MPH on highways, don't use the heat in the winter) so just wondering if anyone else is in the same predicament and believe that the 2016 is good enough or should wait for the 2017

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Why don't you use the heat in Winter?!? Is it a PIP?

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using it for no other reason than the fact that its there!!....

WAIT! Nissan is having issues with the CarWings Telematics unit on all 2016 Leafs. Production in Europe has been halted. Nissan has been dealing with this issue, since the first 2016 Leaf; and as of not, their engineers cannot resolve the connection issue. Everything else works fine.

I have been using the 2016 SV for about 1.5 months in the US.

Telematics is not fully working for me. It is able to read text messages coming to my iPhone 5, but it is unable to send replies.

Few other glitches here & there but all minor. I have not had issues with major functions.

Nissan has rushed the updated infotainment system out. It's software does not feel solid.

Stanton said:

rcm4453 said:

Stanton said:

Finally someone with some common sense!
If you're going to keep any car for 10 years, isn't it obvious you should buy it? And if you have to lease to afford it, doesn't that mean you can't afford it? We can talk about all the other "will he have enough range" stuff 'till the cows come home.

Click to expand...

Why not lease it and get the $7,500 tax credit right away (lower payments) then buy it at the end of the lease and keep it another 7 years? Going over on miles won't matter in this situation.

Click to expand...

That's no different than buying it to "get the $7500 tax credit right away"...and the miles are irrelevant too. :roll:
I think we've strayed OT, but if you know you're going to keep the car, just buy it!

Click to expand...

Yes, there could be a difference... in fact a huge one.
NMAC continuously offers huge discount for lease-end buy-out, which you do not see if you had purchased it out-right from the beginning.

Hey,
I might be late to the party with this but anyway,
I have a 2016 SV and have a 64mile round trip in vermont. I can charge at work ( L1) if I need to and there are lots of charging options in the area but I do the trip now with 12 hrs on a charge timber at home on L1. I take the back roads where the speed limit is 50. If I'm in a hurry I do the interstate at 65 with ways often with AC on. At speed I might hit the LBW when I get home. On the back road I usually have 30-40% left on the battery.
I got the car in April when it was still cool (20 deg F) and I could still make the trip on a single charge.
This is my only car and I plan to keep it. I'm sure ill end up charging at or near work in a few years but the benefits of this car a worth the few hassles.
My 2 cents, if you like it get it. Lease it so in a few years you can trade to a longer range car. By then they will be more common and have some of the bugs worked out.

Nice thread, seems worth it to try and revive ...

I have a 90 mile r/t in the 4 corners area of Colorado I plan to drive with a 2016 30 kWh LEAF. I know this may sound uniformed so hear me out and then tell me off ;-)

• 
  We also have a Prius (v)agon I can use for nasty weather
  I am a slow, annoying and hyper-efficient driver and average about 50 mpg year-round in a car rated 42 mpg by the EPA for my trip.
  I expect L1 destination charging to be available in a pinch (proof pending) or when the car battery degrades

I'd say it depends on what they do with the 2017 in terms of upgrades, and how they price it. The rumor (now complete with an artist's rendering) is that the 2017 will have a roughly 40kwh pack, reshaped nose, and who knows what done inside. If they do all that and keep the price the same, I'm in for an SV. If they do all that and jack up the price, well Chevy has already screwed me on the Bolt LT options (no Surround Vision available on the LT) and I doubt I'll be able to afford a Premiere, so...? Maybe I'll watch for a fire sale on Volts. I definitely don't want another car with less than 100 miles of range in normal driving.

SageBrush said:

Nice thread, seems worth it to try and revive ...

I have a 90 mile r/t in the 4 corners area of Colorado I plan to drive with a 2016 30 kWh LEAF. I know this may sound uniformed so hear me out and then tell me off ;-)

• 
  We also have a Prius (v)agon I can use for nasty weather
  I am a slow, annoying and hyper-efficient driver and average about 50 mpg year-round in a car rated 42 mpg by the EPA for my trip.
  I expect L1 destination charging to be available in a pinch (proof pending) or when the car battery degrades

Click to expand...

I'd say 90 miles R/T is too far for 30 kWh, but should be O.K. for 40 kWh. Hypermiling only gets you so far. Cold weather with wind will likely make the trip untenable during some of the first winter. It will be worse in subsequent winters due to battery degradation. L1 destination charging is a PITA since you have to drag out the cable in all types of weather and then put it in the car, sometimes covered with water andor road grime.

Hi RegGuheert,

Thanks for the advice; it is certainly sound for a single car family.

I considered this arithmetic and assumptions:
15% battery degradation over two years
15% battery buffer
20% private fuel economy better than EPA based on past car
Prius use on bad weather days

I start with 100 miles EPA range in a new car
In two years I have 85 miles EPA range
Buffer reduces my range to 85*0.85 = 72 EPA miles
My private fuel economy extends my range to 72*1.2 = 86 miles

So in two years I'll be eating into my buffer. That would give me even more pause than it has, but I only drive this trip twice a week, the car spends very little time in the sun, the SOC will be kept low-ish the other days, and my year-round ambient temperature is under 60F. So I figure (hope) that willingness to protect the battery and tolerate some personal annoyance when it is cold will work. Worse case, the LEAF is only used for my wife's around town driving as a Honda Fit replacement. She is not overjoyed at losing her Fit but I'm pretty sure she will learn to love the LEAF even more.

Cheers!

SageBrush said:

I considered this arithmetic and assumptions:
15% battery degradation over two years
15% battery buffer
20% private fuel economy better than EPA based on past car
Prius use on bad weather days

I start with 100 miles EPA range in a new car
In two years I have 85 miles EPA range
Buffer reduces my range to 85*0.85 = 72 EPA miles
My private fuel economy extends my range to 72*1.2 = 86 miles

Click to expand...

Reasonable as long as temperatures are about about 30F, there is no rain or snow and winds are low. Count on being able to travel about 60 miles after two years in 10F weather with high winds. (Where I used to live in CO, it got a LOT colder than that!)

SageBrush said:

Worse case, the LEAF is only used for my wife's around town driving as a Honda Fit replacement. She is not overjoyed at losing her Fit but I'm pretty sure she will learn to love the LEAF even more.

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I wouldn't be so sure: my wife still prefers our 2003 Honda Civic Hybrid over our 2011 Nissan LEAF. (But she probably drives the LEAF more than I do.)

SageBrush said:

I considered this arithmetic and assumptions:
15% battery degradation over two years
15% battery buffer
20% private fuel economy better than EPA based on past car
Prius use on bad weather days

I start with 100 miles EPA range in a new car
In two years I have 85 miles EPA range
Buffer reduces my range to 85*0.85 = 72 EPA miles
My private fuel economy extends my range to 72*1.2 = 86 miles

So in two years I'll be eating into my buffer. That would give me even more pause than it has, but I only drive this trip twice a week, the car spends very little time in the sun, the SOC will be kept low-ish the other days, and my year-round ambient temperature is under 60F. So I figure (hope) that willingness to protect the battery and tolerate some personal annoyance when it is cold will work. Worse case, the LEAF is only used for my wife's around town driving as a Honda Fit replacement. She is not overjoyed at losing her Fit but I'm pretty sure she will learn to love the LEAF even more.

Click to expand...

One thing you might not have considered: batteries store less energy when cold. To an extent, you can compensate by keeping the Leaf in a warmer than outside garage. Still, however, the battery will get cold while outside, and will not fully warm up overnight even with a charge, so you will have less energy in the battery. At 0C you will have about 10% less. 32F

If you let the wife drive the Leaf, you might not have a choice. As long as she doesn't push the range, there is a substantial risk it will quickly become "her Leaf", and she might let you use it. Sometimes.

I'd suggest waiting for a little larger battery size. Close, and you might make it work if you can use L1 charging at destination. A 60kWh battery would make this no worries.

WetEV said:

SageBrush said:

I considered this arithmetic and assumptions:
15% battery degradation over two years
15% battery buffer
20% private fuel economy better than EPA based on past car
Prius use on bad weather days

I start with 100 miles EPA range in a new car
In two years I have 85 miles EPA range
Buffer reduces my range to 85*0.85 = 72 EPA miles
My private fuel economy extends my range to 72*1.2 = 86 miles

So in two years I'll be eating into my buffer. That would give me even more pause than it has, but I only drive this trip twice a week, the car spends very little time in the sun, the SOC will be kept low-ish the other days, and my year-round ambient temperature is under 60F. So I figure (hope) that willingness to protect the battery and tolerate some personal annoyance when it is cold will work. Worse case, the LEAF is only used for my wife's around town driving as a Honda Fit replacement. She is not overjoyed at losing her Fit but I'm pretty sure she will learn to love the LEAF even more.

Click to expand...

One thing you might not have considered: batteries store less energy when cold. To an extent, you can compensate by keeping the Leaf in a warmer than outside garage. Still, however, the battery will get cold while outside, and will not fully warm up overnight even with a charge, so you will have less energy in the battery. At 0C you will have about 10% less. 32F

Click to expand...

I forgot ! Thanks very much for the reminder.

Agree with others. Would wait for 40 kWh battery and should still get a great deal with Bolt competition.

Good to see you around even if no longer on PriusChat.

SageBrush said:

Nice thread, seems worth it to try and revive ...

I have a 90 mile r/t in the 4 corners area of Colorado I plan to drive with a 2016 30 kWh LEAF. I know this may sound uniformed so hear me out and then tell me off ;-)

Click to expand...

I would say it is possible with 30kWh pack. You need heat pump. It works extremely well down to freezing temperatures.
Battery does degrade slower in mild temperatures. I still have 90% left after 2 years and 40 000mi.
If you can get destination charging for those special cold days you are totally fine.

You must be prepared to drive at 50mph in bad weather. I've heard that people in US are really scared to do that on highway.
Or charge at destination. Or use ICE vehicle. Or follow a truck. Or charge at ChaDeMo for 5-10minutes.

At 50mph energy consumption is about 12-12,5kWh per 100km/62 miles. (or 17,5-18kWh per 90mi trip) in ideal conditions. Add 2 hours of heater usage, that is 2kWh. Add cold pack penalty 10% (2kWh). We get 22kWh of real juice. Out of ~27kWh on new pack.

PS. At 62mph energy consumption is about 17,5kWh per 100km/62 miles (or 25kWh per 90mi trip) in ideal conditions. Add 2kWh for heater and 2kWh cold penalty. We get 29kWh. That is not possible any more.

If you get 40kWh pack that will solve everything.

If you have urban miles then count energy/mileage like at 50mph speed.

Use Nissan Leaf Range Estimator... app free on google play.
This uses elevation gain and loss ( both) on your route to do a cracker jack job of estimating your range.
It has temp compensation, energy use kwh/mi and battery level adjustments.

Only wind is not taken into account.

It is designed for the older 24KwH batt pack.. but if you set it to 100% its estimate will be extremely close,
and you will have 20% buffer left.

Since this is a free app... (android) you don't have to buy a car.. to get very good answers based on your terrain,
and driving style.

I have a 30KwH 2016 leaf SV... it has been in the 40's and 50's here .
with 85% charge ( and plenty of hilly terrain) I can barely make a 78 mi RT with half f'way at 60 mph and balance at 45.
1900' total climb 1200 total decent.

of course charging to 95% will add about 10 more miles.

If I lived in the flats.. 90 miles would be no problem.(new).
But if you think you are going to drive 50 mph out there around 4 corners.. Pre-pay your burial ins.