2016 SOH versus miles

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jjgilham

Active member
Joined
Oct 7, 2013
Messages
35
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Above is a picture of my SOH versus miles driven. As can be plainly seen, I got the software update at about 37k. I've been driving for a few months since the update. I live in Seattle and drive about 15k-17k miles in a year commuting and running errands. The effect of the update was to boost the reported SOH about 9%. it appears to me that the slope of the SOH vs miles curve is approximately unchanged since the update and it appears to be about 5% per every 10k miles.

As I'm nearing the end of my lease (calendar 6/2019 or miles 45k - which I'll hit first), I'm starting to consider my end-of-lease options. Assuming the slope of the degradation remains constant it appears to me that I can expect to hit 66% (4 bar lost at about 80k miles. I think the car would cover my daily needs even at 60% as I can charge on L1 at work. I like the idea of buying the car, driving it another 40 or 50k and then getting 2nd life with a new battery.

What are thoughts on this strategy?
 
Considering you live in the PNW, this level of degradation is disappointing for a 2016 LEAF. In your shoes, I wouldn't purchase this car after the lease ends in 2019.

Consider the 2019 models of Hyundai Kona Electric, Kia Niro EV, Kia Soul EV, Chevy Bolt, etc instead.

If you are considering a used EV, I purchased from Paramount Motors NW and they specialize in EV sales:

https://www.paramountmotorsnw.com/inventory

I had no issues buying from them, they were good to deal with.
 
Well guessing your residual is low, your lease payments are low so easy to see why you would want to stick with the car. I have to recommend that you keep tracking your stats. I don't think enough time has passed to make the determination that the slope of degradation is unchanged.
 
Then there is the question of the free replacement battery. How many years away is that? Will they use a current 30kwh battery, a "refurbished" 30kwh pack, or a 30kwh pack with a new chemistry..? It's possible they might use a 40kwh pack, possibly with some capacity 'locked,' but I wouldn't expect that.
 
Let the lease expire. If you want a Leaf, buy it used on the open market. It will be cheaper than the residual cost. Depreciation on a Leaf is brutal and dealers send them off to auction all the time. Better yet, lease a 40KWH or wait a couple of months and lease a 60KWH. Look at other EV's as well. At this point I wouldn't buy, just lease. The technology is changing so rapidly that leasing makes more sense because you can upgrade every couple or three years and if you make a poor choice you're not stuck with it for 5-6 years.
 
johnlocke said:
Let the lease expire. If you want a Leaf, buy it used on the open market. It will be cheaper than the residual cost. Depreciation on a Leaf is brutal and dealers send them off to auction all the time. Better yet, lease a 40KWH or wait a couple of months and lease a 60KWH. Look at other EV's as well. At this point I wouldn't buy, just lease. The technology is changing so rapidly that leasing makes more sense because you can upgrade every couple or three years and if you make a poor choice you're not stuck with it for 5-6 years.


I see that you have a 2016 and got a new battery at 45k miles, Am I correct in assuming that was before the change in the battery controller software? I ask, because I was almost to 2 bars lost on mine before the change which appears to have added 9% the SOH in my case. To my eye, it appears that it may still hit 4 bars before 100k miles and I would love to get a 2nd life on the car at that point. I figure the useful life of the car would go from something like 6 to 12 years if that happens. I do like the car and it fits my needs.
 
johnlocke said:
Let the lease expire. If you want a Leaf, buy it used on the open market. It will be cheaper than the residual cost. Depreciation on a Leaf is brutal and dealers send them off to auction all the time. Better yet, lease a 40KWH or wait a couple of months and lease a 60KWH. Look at other EV's as well. At this point I wouldn't buy, just lease. The technology is changing so rapidly that leasing makes more sense because you can upgrade every couple or three years and if you make a poor choice you're not stuck with it for 5-6 years.


I've got a 2016 SV with 39K miles (lovingly cared for) through 2.5 years of a 3.0 year lease. It is currently a 12-bar car but is reporting 88.6% SOH after the LBC update.

Facts:
Monthly Payment $224
Current Buyout from NMAC $12916
Actual Buyout from dealer $13216 (includes $300 dealer fee)
Estimated Buyout at end of lease $11474

Of course there is also state tax on the transaction and licensing fees which add about $1k to the deal, but of course those apply to purchases on the "open market" as well. When I look what is available on the market I'm seeing 15K or 16k versus 13.2k so I don't see that as attractive. Is there a better place to buy used Leaf's that I'm not seeing?
 
I've got a 2016 SV with 39K miles (lovingly cared for) through 2.5 years of a 3.0 year lease. It is currently a 12-bar car but is reporting 88.6% SOH after the LBC update.

Where do you live? Someplace fairly warm, hopefully?
 
I agree with the OP, less than $13K is below market around here for a 2016 SV. I've been keeping an eye out for one, and they tend to be in the $16K and above range. There is one locally with less miles but missing a bar, and it's from this area (Tacoma).
 
If we were talking about a 2015 LEAF SV (24 kWh pack) at this time last year (for fair comparison), the likelihood of finding a PNW 2015 LEAF, that had already dropped a capacity bar, would be very unlikely.

The fact that @jjgilham has a 2016 SV with an 88% SOH suggests that the 30 kWh packs are indeed worse than the Lizard 24 kWh packs. The PNW climate is ideal for BEVs and should represent best case degradation. The comments of @warrenc, that he found another 1 bar loser, suggest this isn't just a one off...

This is the sort of info that keeps me coming back to these forums. I think it's highly unlikely that my next EV will be a LEAF, as evidence is starting to mount that the 30 kWh and 40 kWh packs are crappy.
 
Yup, I'm concluding the same - that even if the BMS exaggerates capacity loss in at least some of them, the actual capacity loss for the 30kwh packs is too high. And the 40kwh version (that I have, alas) is at most only slightly better. It's a good thing I only need 90-100 miles of range.
 
If the battery lost 2.5% per year it would meet Nissan's claimed expectations (80% after 8 years or 100K mi.) If the battery lost 4% per year it would barely make the 8 year warranty. Unfortunately for us, the battery degradation in the southwest is more like 10-15% annually. Even in the northern tier states annual battery loss is probably around 5-6%. After 3 1/2 months on a new 30 KWH battery with the LBC firmware upgrade. I'm down about 4% already. If the deterioration slows during the winter as I expect it to, I should be down 6-8% by next June. If it doesn't slow down, I could be down 15% or more by June. The European versions don't seem to have this problem. I'm starting to think that it may be that we drive further and faster than the Europeans particularly in the southwest. Could It be that we are stressing the battery with freeway driving? That could explain why the Japanese cars aren't affected either. Most Europeans and Japanese don't have long commutes and their cities tend to be compact compared to U.S. urban sprawl.

I know that there are cabs in Europe with very high mileage and still have good batteries. Could it be that they rack up all those miles in a low speed urban environment and don't stress the battery with sustained high current draws? Lots of small trips at low speeds instead of long mad dashes at freeway speeds? I'm starting to think that it might have as much to with driving styles as local temps.
 
Could It be that we are stressing the battery with freeway driving?

I'd say no, for two reasons. First, driving 65-70MPh (which I rarely do, BTW) doesn't pull power from the pack fast enough to cause rapid heating. Second, Nissan's "TMS" (passive air cooling) works well ONLY at highway speeds, and should compensate for heating caused by driving faster. I suspect that it's more like Europeans driving a little slower overall, plus driving shorter distances, plus doing less fast charging, plus generally cooler ambient temps.
 
6% per year SOH loss doesn't look right to me. I am in Minnesota (which is warmer than Seattle in summer), and my Leaf has degraded 3% over the first 14 months (according to the new BMS firmware). I am driving fewer miles than you (only 7.7k/year) but I've heard that the miles matter less than the number of months, and the weather.
 
LeftieBiker said:
Could It be that we are stressing the battery with freeway driving?

I'd say no, for two reasons. First, driving 65-70MPh (which I rarely do, BTW) doesn't pull power from the pack fast enough to cause rapid heating. Second, Nissan's "TMS" (passive air cooling) works well ONLY at highway speeds, and should compensate for heating caused by driving faster. I suspect that it's more like Europeans driving a little slower overall, plus driving shorter distances, plus doing less fast charging, plus generally cooler ambient temps.
I'm not talking about heating issues here. I'm thinking that sustained high current draws might be damaging to the chemistry instead of heating. It not that the current draw causes a heating effect but rather that sustained high current draws may alter the chemistry in such a way that charging does not fully restore the chemistry. Kind of like sulfation of a lead-acid battery. We know that dendrites form in Li-ion batteries anyway so could a similar mechanism be causing loss of capacity under high current conditions?
 
I'm not talking about heating issues here. I'm thinking that sustained high current draws might be damaging to the chemistry instead of heating. It not that the current draw causes a heating effect but rather that sustained high current draws may alter the chemistry in such a way that charging does not fully restore the chemistry. Kind of like sulfation of a lead-acid battery. We know that dendrites form in Li-ion batteries anyway so could a similar mechanism be causing loss of capacity under high current conditions?

First, the same driving conditions that don't cause heating don't involve sustained high current draws, either. I also doubt that Europeans don't floor the accelerator pedal regularly. Hard acceleration while running a resistance heater, fast charging, hard acceleration up long steep hills, I don't see any of these conditions being significantly less common in Europe. I do think that sustained heating is less common in at least Northern Europe and the entire UK.
 
alozzy said:
The OP lives in Seattle...

I thought he was in NW OR but not a whole lot of difference between the two although OR can and does get a bit warmer in Summer although lately, Seattle is getting plenty warm on its own.
 
Here is the Slope of the SOH curve before the LBC update = 5.8% per 10K miles.

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Slope of the SOH curve since the LBC update = 6.6% per 10K miles


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Note that the SOH curve for after the LBC update does not have very much data and likely overstates the rate of degradation as it includes August and Sept which are warmer months in Seattle and i think the slope is higher in warmer months.

It appears to me that the rate of degradation may well be unchanged from pre- and post- BC software update. If that is true it might be reasonable to estimate 5% or 6% SOH loss per 10k miles given my driving habits.

If I'm at 88% now it seems like I'll drop 22% in the next 45k miles which would put me at a new battery at 85K miles and 2nd life. I think I'll keep monitoring this and make a determination about what to do at the that last minute before I turn it in or buy it.
 
specialgreen said:
6% per year SOH loss doesn't look right to me. I am in Minnesota (which is warmer than Seattle in summer), and my Leaf has degraded 3% over the first 14 months (according to the new BMS firmware). I am driving fewer miles than you (only 7.7k/year) but I've heard that the miles matter less than the number of months, and the weather.


Actually, if you just look at the data versus miles driven I'm measuring 5.8% degradation per 10K at 15k miles driven and your experience suggests 3% degradation per 7.7 k miles but that was with the LBC included. My SOH went up 9% post LBC change. Did you notice if yours changed?

You will notice that I didn't include the first 9K miles in my plot because the data was all over the place. I started at 100% SOH and tanked quickly to 93 or 94% and then hovered a bit and climbed back up to 96% from where it began its linear descent that I plotted. I have no idea what to make of that but I assumed it was the BC figuring out the battery. I was not happy that when I checked it at the dealer on Leafspy it was 100% but 1K miles later it was much lower, but what are you going to do?

If you take a look at the complete plot that I put up in a post just below you'll see some strange behavior before 10k Miles. After 10K the behavior is "easy" to understand but not a very happy story. I hope you have better luck in year 2 and year 3 than I have.
 
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