jjgilham
Posts: 33
Joined: Mon Oct 07, 2013 8:19 am
Delivery Date: 02 Jun 2016

Re: 2016 SOH versus miles

Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:22 am

One final plot. Here is my lifetime SOH versus miles driven. I didn't include the first 10k before because I regarded this data as unhelpful with respect to what to expect going forward. I find the data after 10K miles easy to understand. SOH is going down and it is going down pretty steadily at something like 6% per10k miles driven. I have no idea how to interpret what was going on at the beginning. Specifically the rapid fall from 100% to 93% after I drove it off the lot and the gradual climb to 96% and then the descent. It sure appears like the BC update didn't really do anything but add 9% to the SOH. I suppose I'll know more in another 5K miles before I decide what to do with this car.

Image
2013 SV 3-year lease @ 15k per year
2016 SV 3-year lease @ 15k per year

specialgreen
Posts: 141
Joined: Sun Mar 26, 2017 1:21 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Mar 2017
Location: Minnesota

Re: 2016 SOH versus miles

Tue Oct 16, 2018 2:05 pm

jjgilham wrote:
specialgreen wrote:6% per year SOH loss doesn't look right to me. I am in Minnesota (which is warmer than Seattle in summer), and my Leaf has degraded 3% over the first 14 months


Actually, if you just look at the data versus miles driven I'm measuring 5.8% degradation per 10K at 15k miles driven and your experience suggests 3% degradation per 7.7 k miles but that was with the LBC included. My SOH went up 9% post LBC change. Did you notice if yours changed? .


Yes; my SOH was at 93.5% at 6.3k miles and 10 months (0.65% per month average). I didn't get a snapshot of it right after LBC, but I'm now at 97.04% at 9.1k miles and 14 months (0.21% per month avg.). (you have like 30 data points... I have like 3 :) ).

On the "bright side," if you are degrading at 5.8% per year, you should get a free battery after 5.7 years. Then you could probably drive another 5.7 years (11 years, 4.8 months total) before you're back down to 8 bars. In my case, I won't hit 8 bars until 13 years and 1.6 months, so no free battery for me. We each would have spent about the same number of months at 12 bars, 11 bars, etc., except that you would have gone through two batteries to my one.

My guess is that we will both degrade faster as time goes-on, but unless 4 year compounded degradation is 30% more than 1st-year run-rate, we will both be faced with paying for a battery at about the same year. If it speeds-up by 30%, you might burn through the first battery before 4 years, and the second battery before 8 years; but I still won't hit 8 bars until 9.2 years.

MobileEV
Posts: 139
Joined: Wed Nov 27, 2013 4:30 pm
Delivery Date: 12 Apr 2014
Leaf Number: 022612
Location: Kansas City, MO, USA

Re: 2016 SOH versus miles

Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:59 pm

See Google Photos link to another set of datapoints of a 2016 SV (leased August 2016, lease expires August 2019) SOH% vs. mileage. Sorry I wasn't clever enough to insert an image directly into the forum.

The jump up was the software patch. The car was in Kansas City (think hot summers) until recently and it's now in West Michigan. I also have a Tesla, so I don't really "need" a 2nd long range EV, but if the 2019 e-Plus is available by the time my lease is up, I'm strongly considering a lease of that. My residual is somewhere around $11K.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/DCK9G86jG88KdS4s6

Hedging my bets, I also put in a reservation for the Fenix battery pack (https://fenix.systems/leafbattery). I have little to lose at this point with the $150 buy-in.

-Karl
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Karl Bloss
2016 LEAF SV, Brilliant Silver
2012 LEAF SL, Cayenne Red - sold 2016 @ 35K miles
2015 Tesla P85D
10 KW grid-tied solar
Kansas City, MO, USA (in the Northland)

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