Safe to Assume this 2016 SV will get replacement pack?

I've got a 2016 SV that has been in service for a little over 2 years, it has 35k miles on it. I have a 3 year lease at 15k per year and I've been using miles faster than my 15k per year lease allowance. I also leased a 2013 which i drove 45k miles and returned with 12 bars. My 2016 is definitely degrading faster. I currently have 11 bars and have an SOH of about 81%. I've plotted out my SOH as a function of miles driven and it looks to me like I should hit 66% at about 65k miles or so, which I would expect to do in about 2 additional years. It is my understanding that 66% SOH is approximately the 4th bar drop. I believe the car would still meet my commute needs comfortably at that time. Even if the rate of SOH deterioration should slow it does not appear to me that I'd have any problem getting in under the 8-year, 100k battery capacity warranty.

If I get a fresh pack at 65k or 70k miles it seems to me that it might be a good idea to buy this car at lease end, or perhaps buy it out now and plan on enjoying a "second leaf life" and maybe getting 150k miles out of this car.

Does this seem reasonable? Any thoughts on this strategy?

See Nissan issues software update to solve 30 kwh battery issues

Thanks for the link. I've yet to get the software update but I have to say I'm very skeptical. It seems to me that the battery warranty is written as 4-bar loss, but Nissan controls what 4 bar loss means (via their software). So when the fleet is degrading at a pace that will result in plenty of warranty activity they magically change the bar software and label it an improvement. I'm definitely going to measure the total kwH going into my battery before and after this change. I figure if it is a real improvement, the battery ought to be taking more energy from the wall. If it doesn't, than it indicates that the change is related to owner perception and for nefarious manipulation of the battery capacity warranty.

If you do not trust Nissan to play fair with the 4rth bar, what is the value of your spreadsheet ?
What quality battery replacement do you care to presume will be offered in 4-5 years ?

I cannot think of a single good reason to decide now. Collect another year of data and start plotting battery aging by kWh added from VLBW so at least you will not be relying on Nissan (or its battery BMS) to gauge battery health over time.

jjgilham said:

I've got a 2016 SV that has been in service for a little over 2 years, it has 35k miles on it. I have a 3 year lease at 15k per year and I've been using miles faster than my 15k per year lease allowance. I also leased a 2013 which i drove 45k miles and returned with 12 bars. My 2016 is definitely degrading faster. I currently have 11 bars and have an SOH of about 81%. I've plotted out my SOH as a function of miles driven and it looks to me like I should hit 66% at about 65k miles or so, which I would expect to do in about 2 additional years. It is my understanding that 66% SOH is approximately the 4th bar drop. I believe the car would still meet my commute needs comfortably at that time. Even if the rate of SOH deterioration should slow it does not appear to me that I'd have any problem getting in under the 8-year, 100k battery capacity warranty.

If I get a fresh pack at 65k or 70k miles it seems to me that it might be a good idea to buy this car at lease end, or perhaps buy it out now and plan on enjoying a "second leaf life" and maybe getting 150k miles out of this car.

Does this seem reasonable? Any thoughts on this strategy?

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Wait another year, get the software update done ASAP ( Nissan will probably require it before replacing a battery anyway). You will be able to see if the software actually fixes anything and can then decide whether to buy out the lease. Besides which you will probably be able to negotiate a better buyout price after the 2019's show up. If the loss of range doesn't bother you and you still think you'll qualify for a new battery before the warranty expires, buying out the lease may make sense. Otherwise, I'd suggest taking the hit on excess mileage and walking away.

There are going to be a lot more choices available next year for BEV's. Wait and see if your money could be better spent on a new car with an improved battery and TMS to keep it cool. Nissan's track record with the Leaf is spotty at best and they have made little effort to support existing customers. Their next EV may be brilliant and full of innovation but I wouldn't count on it.

Having purchased my 2016 outright I'm stuck with it. I just had the battery changed at 45K and honestly expect to get a second replacement around 90-95K just before the warranty runs out. If so, i'll get maybe 150K out of the car. Otherwise I'll probably scrap it as the out of warranty cost for the battery is nearly $10K and I'd rather put it toward a new car.

Thanks for the great feedback. Here is my plan. I'm going to start recording how much energy I'm putting in, and how much is being recorded by LeafSpy. I'll also do a couple VLBW - Full and maybe a turtle - Full and record the total energy out of the wall.

Then I'll get the SW update and do the same monitoring for a while and see if there is any evidence of more energy going into the battery under the same conditions. If they are truly fixing a monitoring "bug" then the BMS should be freeing up more battery capacity. I'll report data as I collect it.

jjgilham said:

Thanks for the great feedback. Here is my plan. I'm going to start recording how much energy I'm putting in, and how much is being recorded by LeafSpy. I'll also do a couple VLBW - Full and maybe a turtle - Full and record the total energy out of the wall.

Then I'll get the SW update and do the same monitoring for a while and see if there is any evidence of more energy going into the battery under the same conditions. If they are truly fixing a monitoring "bug" then the BMS should be freeing up more battery capacity. I'll report data as I collect it.

Click to expand...

That is a good plan. I have been monitoring mine after software update. I was already at 8 bars, now 11. To get an accurate reading you should try to get to turtle(4 or 5 Gids).

From what I can tell they are letting you go lower on voltage than before so make note of that too. I may have got 1kWh more actual capacity. The GOM looks a lot better. I see 85-90 miles at 100% now where it was 75-80 before. And it tracks closer to 1% SOC per mile now.