How many 2011 and 2012 LEAFs are still on the road today?

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OrientExpress

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 8, 2010
Messages
1,652
Location
San Jose, Ca
I'm wondering how many 2011 and 2012 LEAFs are still in service in 2017.

The total production for those two years was about 19,000 cars with about half being 2011s and half being 2012's

Thoughts?
 
The vast majority.

These are very dependable cars, so repairs that cost more than the car are worth are fairly unusual.

As for all cars, collision damages retire a significant number, which increases with time, of course.
 
A year or two ago I would see tons of '12s for sale in the used market, all coming off Leases. As of late I rarely see '12s, mostly '13 and newer. I'd still imagine most '12s(and '11s) are still on the road, I seem to see more '12s on the road than any other year in my city, probably because they were sold so cheap used. My '12SL is still used daily, mostly by my daughter. I never really saw many '11s, probably because there weren't as many sold?? or else some/many?? didn't have the cold weather package, which would be quite important in my market. I do occasionally see an '11 but they are the least expensive and mostly sold by small time dealers, I'd think the large dealers don't bother with them.
 
States like Wisconsin have only a few hundred new EVs registered of the 5000ish on the road.

So guess what happens to new cars in Georgia and California after they are no longer new?
 
I would still be driving my 2011 if the other driver's insurance company had paid to repair it instead of declaring it a total loss. I suspect collision damage (or comprehensive loss--saw pictures of a tree on a Leaf after a storm) are the main causes of the older LEAFs being removed from service.
 
I am really shocked and saddened to hear this question. An 11 or 12 car is only about 5-6 years old. The car, just like any modern Honda, Toyota, or Nissan is capable of lasting DECADES, and those who do not drive far can keep the car working as-is for about 10 years!! The poster before me has 12 BARS!!! I think too many of us here see the electric car as a throw-away appliance (like a phone, or tablet).

Other than the consumable battery, the Leaf is capable of driving 200K miles, and still be rust free. The question I would rather hear is a report from the older users of what MILEAGE they have racked up on their cars.. I'd love to hear what I can expect with my own car in a few years. I would love to hear about repairs made to the older cars, like brakes, struts, ball joints, rust, or other oddball repairs!!! Owners of the original Leafs... Please educate us!!
 
powersurge said:
I am really shocked and saddened to hear this question. An 11 or 12 car is only about 5-6 years old. The car, just like any modern Honda, Toyota, or Nissan is capable of lasting DECADES, and those who do not drive far can keep the car working as-is for about 10 years!! The poster before me has 12 BARS!!! I think too many of us here see the electric car as a throw-away appliance (like a phone, or tablet).

My comment is that your observation is well founded, but more applicable to a mature design like ICE powered vehicles.

What's different here is that EV's of all sorts are just in the early stages of their development, and while the goal is to have a car that would have a 200K+ mile life, the technology that is going to enable that is going through a time of tremendous innovation and change.

In an EV technology is inextricability intertwined with the mechanicals of the car. It's the tech that is driving the current rate of obsolescence with EVs, not the chassis or even the drivetrain, automakers know how to make those parts of a car very well. It's the tech that is totally wild west right now.

This is no different from the 80's through the 00's with the advances that were made with personal computers. Every day there a newer faster cheaper one was introduced. That's what EVs are experiencing now.

Those in the business say that design to driveway times continue to shrink as the big problems are being solved, so expect the FEV (Forever EV) to start to show up in about 3 years.
 
OrientExpress said:
powersurge said:
I am really shocked and saddened to hear this question. An 11 or 12 car is only about 5-6 years old. The car, just like any modern Honda, Toyota, or Nissan is capable of lasting DECADES, and those who do not drive far can keep the car working as-is for about 10 years!! The poster before me has 12 BARS!!! I think too many of us here see the electric car as a throw-away appliance (like a phone, or tablet).

My comment is that your observation is well founded, but more applicable to a mature design like ICE powered vehicles...
Sorry O.E., but IMO your assumption above is ass-backwards.

I think a higher proportion of ~five year old LEAFs today will still be on the road in another ~five years, than of comparable ~five year old ICEVs today, and a much higher proportion of LEAFs than ICEVs sold today, will still be on the road ~ten years in the future.

It's far clearer today, than it was when I ordered my LEAF ~seven years ago, that ICEVs have slipped into obsolescence, and the viability of keeping them on the road will disappear relatively soon in the future.
 
edatoakrun said:
I think a higher proportion of ~five year old LEAFs today will still be on the road in another ~five years, than of comparable ~five year old ICEVs today, and a much higher proportion of LEAFs than ICEVs sold today, will still be on the road ~ten years in the future.

It's far clearer today, than it was when I ordered my LEAF ~seven years ago, that ICEVs have slipped into obsolescence, and the viability of keeping them on the road will disappear relatively soon in the future.

Well to help validate your argument we first have to figure out how many of the 19,000 are still on the road today. We also need an understanding how the spares situation will play out. Remember automakers are only required to supply parts for seven years. Most do provide parts support way beyond that on the stuff that sells, but the other parts may not be so easy to come by in the future.

And yes you are correct that the ICE powered vehicle fleet will be replaced by an EV fleet, but that tipping point is further away than you think.

But I do stand by my assertion that it is tech innovation that is driving the near-term depreciation and obsolescence of EVs produced in the last ten years.
 
OrientExpress said:
edatoakrun said:
I think a higher proportion of ~five year old LEAFs today will still be on the road in another ~five years, than of comparable ~five year old ICEVs today, and a much higher proportion of LEAFs than ICEVs sold today, will still be on the road ~ten years in the future.

It's far clearer today, than it was when I ordered my LEAF ~seven years ago, that ICEVs have slipped into obsolescence, and the viability of keeping them on the road will disappear relatively soon in the future.

Well to help validate your argument we first have to figure out how many of the 19,000 are still on the road today.

About 6 % of cars leave the road each year following an interesting bell plus two half curves. Main curve circled around 5 years
Very new cars exit the market at a higher rate, once two ish years old it's down, then up around 5 years then down then up.

So let's say 6% a year as a swag, should be easy to figure.

Also just because 13 thousand leafs are on the road doesn't mean they stayed in launch states, many off lease go to those of us in flyover country.

About 1/3 of used leafs in Wisconsin started life in Cali the rest are mostly distributed between Illinois, Georgia, Michigan, very few are from east or south oddly.

It's a fun activity to check VIns of used ev car listings in a state to see their "original" home state. (Especially in states with very few cars for sale)

If it weren't for states like Illinois, California or even Georgia, far fewer EVs would have made their way here.
 
My 2012 is going strong. Got the new battery last November under warranty and still shows 100% health in Leaf spy. Plan on keeping it at least 5 more years. Drive to work is 20 miles each way but have a free level 2 charger at work so makes it really cheap to drive for work. :)
 
OrientExpress said:
We also need an understanding how the spares situation will play out. Remember automakers are only required to supply parts for seven years. Most do provide parts support way beyond that on the stuff that sells, but the other parts may not be so easy to come by in the future.

I don't think spare parts are going to be a critical issue until probably well into the 2020's if not later. The Leaf has been around for almost 6-1/2 years basically unchanged. If Leaf 2.0 were to come out next month, that means that according to the "seven year rule" that you mention (and I've heard it to be 10 years) Nissan is required to maintain new parts inventory until 2024.

The relative ease by which the Leaf becomes an insurance write-off means there will be lots of used spare parts as well.

Besides batteries and tires, what parts of a Leaf are most likely going to be needing replacement by the time it's 10 years old? Brakes, shocks? Very likely the third-party parts market will have this taken care of by then, if not already.

You may have difficulties sourcing interior trim parts once the car is a decade old, but that's true with just about any car today.
 
Yes in the short term recycled parts will become the main source of spares for 2011-2012 cars.

Even though the 2011-2017 cars look alike, you would be surprised at how many parts are not interchangeable between years.

Everything from body panels to the suspension and most of the traction motor systems are unique to specific years.
 
Hello. I am new to the group as of this post. I just purchased a very used 2011 Leaf, with a very degraded battery with a tested 55 mile range in eco mode and not over 35 mph. It dropped considerably at 62 mph driving a similar distance. But I knew this going in since I paid a fraction of what other cars with 37,000 miles cost, ICE or Electric. From what I have seen these Li-ion batteries are comprised of multiple cells linked together, not manufactured as a single unit. If this is in fact true, why can we not remove and inspect each cell, discard those below a certain value and replace them rather than let the re-builder do essentially this, and then sell/lease us a non new battery for an extortionist price? Sure you can seriously fry your ass off but I've worked in much higher power/amperage in old building demolition from the turn of the last century, and with care and understanding it can't be that bad. Has anyone disassembled one of these Leaf batteries to verify if this is possible? Also I'd like to add that I like the car from a calm, quiet perspective and the slightly taller seating position seems good too. Mine is SV I believe and has a reasonably good sound system, Navigation and backup cam. The last owner has mismatched tires on it, some low rolling resistance, some not but it's still smooth and quiet. So I plan on keeping this one on the road for quite some time.
 
2011 leaf SL with 92,000 miles on it now . The car got a new battery at 58000 miles. The new battery is doing well still over 90% with all bars. I still drive the wheels off the car with no problems. The car is holding up nicely. Still love the car.

PS Orient Express do you have NADA data for 11s, 12s and 13 leafs in CA. ?
 
OldTooly said:
Hello. I am new to the group as of this post. I just purchased a very used 2011 Leaf, with a very degraded battery with a tested 55 mile range in eco mode and not over 35 mph. It dropped considerably at 62 mph driving a similar distance. But I knew this going in since I paid a fraction of what other cars with 37,000 miles cost, ICE or Electric. From what I have seen these Li-ion batteries are comprised of multiple cells linked together, not manufactured as a single unit. If this is in fact true, why can we not remove and inspect each cell, discard those below a certain value and replace them rather than let the re-builder do essentially this, and then sell/lease us a non new battery for an extortionist price? Sure you can seriously fry your ass off but I've worked in much higher power/amperage in old building demolition from the turn of the last century, and with care and understanding it can't be that bad. Has anyone disassembled one of these Leaf batteries to verify if this is possible? Also I'd like to add that I like the car from a calm, quiet perspective and the slightly taller seating position seems good too. Mine is SV I believe and has a reasonably good sound system, Navigation and backup cam. The last owner has mismatched tires on it, some low rolling resistance, some not but it's still smooth and quiet. So I plan on keeping this one on the road for quite some time.
Lithium batteries typically degrade evenly, if your range was 10 miles then what you propose would work, any higher and your likely going to need to replace the whole thing
 
edatoakrun said:
[I think a higher proportion of ~five year old LEAFs today will still be on the road in another ~five years, than of comparable ~five year old ICEVs today, and a much higher proportion of LEAFs than ICEVs sold today, will still be on the road ~ten years in the future.
Disagree.

Per many sources like https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/07/29/new-car-sales-soaring-but-cars-getting-older-too/30821191/ and http://www.autonews.com/article/20161122/RETAIL05/161129973/average-age-of-vehicles-on-road-hits-11.6-years, the average age of vehicles on American roads is past 11 years.

An 11 year Leaf on its original battery will have likely lost a LOT of capacity, esp. if it was an '11 or '12 that didn't qualify for capacity warranty replacement and the owner didn't want to shell out the big $ to replace it once it became to big of a pain to drive due to its shrinking range autonomy.

Then what? Leaf resale value is already proven to be terrible. A very hobbled Leaf (say down 50% or more in capacity) has an even smaller market appeal in 5 years, esp. up against other longer range EVs (e.g. 200+ mile on EPA test) and used ones remaining w/a lot more range than say 36.5 miles (1/2 of 73 miles).

The vehicle might end up being scrapped or parted out.

ICEVs don't have such puny range autonomy to begin with and don't decreasing range autonomy as they age in a manner that would somehow make them have the range of even a brand new Leaf. In fact, fuel economy tends to improve a bit after the engine and other parts have been broken in.
 
Almost every Leaf I looked at when shopping a year and a half ago was in such great condition, they appear almost new. My 2012 Leaf has proven (knock on the J-1772) to run like a new car - especially with the new battery. The build quality, surprising level of standard (SV) equipment, low mileages, and what seems to be exceptional durability of EV's in general (maybe it's partially the type of owners?), COULD allow the Leaf to break out of the traditional life-cycle of ICE based autos. The big "hitch" (IMHO) is the degradation of the HV battery. Sadly, the relatively very low numbers of Leafs (compared to any ICE) likely will not support a good answer to this issue???
 
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