What will a 2011 leaf be worth in 2019?

It seems they are currently going for $9000 now. What is to be expected and why?

(trying to estimate cost of ownership)

Too many variables at play to make a meaningful prediction. Only one thing is certain - they will cost less than today.

Valdemar said:

Too many variables at play to make a meaningful prediction. Only one thing is certain - they will cost less than today.

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What if gas is $10/gal in 2019 dollars?

ampitupco said:

What if gas is $10/gal in 2019 dollars?

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It will depend more on the state of the EV market then. If there is a dearth of EVs available, then the EV community will covet these cars and you'll have a lively aftermarket for parts and replacement batteries. If you can buy new cars that have 3x the range for $25k, then no one will want one of these old LEAFs.

Much like the VW community is putting Subaru engine in 1970's busses, you will those that tinker with the "new" technology and keep some of them alive.

Telling will be what one is worth in 2051!

gor29 said:

It seems they are currently going for $9000 now. What is to be expected and why?

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Are you waiting for a good deal? You may get one.

ampitupco said:

Valdemar said:

Too many variables at play to make a meaningful prediction. Only one thing is certain - they will cost less than today.

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What if gas is $10/gal in 2019 dollars?

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The majority of older Leafs will require a new battery pack by 2019 or not too long after that, that is $6,000-$7,000 in today's money. I hope I'm wrong but it is very unlikely the battery cost will drop more than 30% over the next 4-5 years, if at all. That will significantly erode the resale value.

What will a 2011 leaf be worth in 2019?

It really doesn't matter very much to me.

My leaf has had the lowest total-cost-of-ownership of any new car in its class, over the last four years.

And it probably will continue to have the lowest TCO of any comparable used car, over the next four years, whatever it would sell for in 2019.

BTW, if you want to get the same benefit, by buying a 2011 LEAF today, I'd recommend you pay ~$11-12k for a very clean low-mileage SL with a DC port, rather than a ~$9,000 beater.

edatoakrun said:

BTW, if you want to get the same benefit, by buying a 2011 LEAF today, I'd recommend you pay ~$11-12k for a very clean low-mileage SL with a DC port, rather than a ~$9,000 beater.

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Agreed... most of the ones I've seen for $9k have terrible battery degradation, relatively high mileage, or both. You should be able to find one that had its previous life in a northern state (i.e. battery still in good shape) and low mileage in that price range.

edatoakrun said:

My leaf has had the lowest total-cost-of-ownership of any new car in its class, over the last four years.

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Not for me, a Prius would have been the same or better all things considered.

ishiyakazuo said:

Agreed... most of the ones I've seen for $9k have terrible battery degradation

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What do you consider terrible? The truth is that not terrible can become terrible just after you owning the car for 2 years.

I comparing total cost of ownership with a (plug-in) prius. For these two, depreciation would dominate fuel costs even with higher gas prices.

So if battery replacement is $6000, and if in 2019, one could buy a 2015 leaf for $9000 (as we can buy a 2011 leaf for $9000 today), then this would put the value at no greater than $3000?

And if a running car even with short range is worth at least $1000 ($500?), then this would put the estimate at $1000-$3000?

I had a 19 years old Volvo that still had $3800 replacement value when totaled. If a car runs reasonably well and still passes state inspection without obvious defects, a floor value exists.

gor29 said:

...And if a running car even with short range is worth at least $1000 ($500?), then this would put the estimate at $1000-$3000?

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That would be my guess. Clean, relatively few miles (say, <50k) on the higher end of that range.

I wonder if Nissan will still supply new batteries for the old short-range LEAFs in 2019? I presume that they will be building only higher range generation 2 models by then, which will use completely different battery packs (in both form and function).

dgpcolorado said:

I wonder if Nissan will still supply new batteries for the old short-range LEAFs in 2019?

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I hope so!

dgpcolorado said:

I presume that they will be building only higher range generation 2 models by then, which will use completely different battery packs (in both form and function).

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I expect they will still offer a lower-range version to keep the entry cost low. My hope is that the modules will be the same physically and electrically but that they will have a higher capacity. Perhaps we can get an upgrade that way.

ishiyakazuo said:

edatoakrun said:

BTW, if you want to get the same benefit, by buying a 2011 LEAF today, I'd recommend you pay ~$11-12k for a very clean low-mileage SL with a DC port, rather than a ~$9,000 beater.

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Agreed... most of the ones I've seen for $9k have terrible battery degradation, relatively high mileage, or both. You should be able to find one that had its previous life in a northern state (i.e. battery still in good shape) and low mileage in that price range.

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I saw one pristine condition with seat heaters, no major battery degradation, reasonable mileage in NC just a month back for $8900 and another member on this forum beat me to buying it. It spent it's whole life in NC, no southern exposure.

gor29 said:

...if a running car even with short range is worth at least $1000 ($500?)...?

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Actually, I expect that a LEAF battery pack alone with only ~ 50% of it's original available capacity will likely be worth ~ that much, in 2019, ~ $50 to $100 per kWh, to buyers wanting to get kWh storage for stationary uses on the cheap.

I doubt many LEAF sellers will be willing to throw the rest of the car (which can have it's value increased significantly by installing a new, used or rebuilt pack) into the deal for free.

But in 2019, rather than pay $3000 for an old 2011 leaf and $6000 for a new battery for $9000 total, wouldn't buyers rather pay $9000 for a 4-year old 2015 leaf with lizard battery?

A lot of that will depend on just how well the Lizard actually holds up four or five years down the road... We have no way to know at this point.

gor29 said:

But in 2019, rather than pay $3000 for an old 2011 leaf and $6000 for a new battery for $9000 total, wouldn't buyers rather pay $9000 for a 4-year old 2015 leaf with lizard battery?

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gor29 said:

But in 2019, rather than pay $3000 for an old 2011 leaf and $6000 for a new battery for $9000 total, wouldn't buyers rather pay $9000 for a 4-year old 2015 leaf with lizard battery?

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Answer the same question with some more likely (IMO) cost assumptions:

But in 2019, rather than pay $10,000 for a 4-year old 2015 leaf wouldn't buyers rather pay $5000 for an old 2011 leaf and ~$4000 for a new ~24kWh or ~$2,000 for a used/rebuilt ~20kWh battery (prices less pack trade-in value) total cost ~$7,000 to $~9,000?

But most LEAF buyers paying ~$5000 in 2019 for a 2011 LEAF probably won't be planning on buying a replacement battery immediately (if at all,) as they should be able to buy one with 16 to 18 kWh capacity remaining, and be satisfied with a very dependable and low-cost vehicle mainly used for trips up to the single-charge range that capacity allows.