Should I buy or should I wait

I am a Canuck and am looking for some advice. I currently own a Rogue and want to turn it in for a Leaf. My commute is 90 km or 55 miles one way. My commute is 1 1/4 hours in rush hour traffic so I do some start and stopping on the highway. I looked at the numbers and I figured out that I am spending $500.mo in gas so if I traded my Rogue in and took the $3750 dealer incentive my payments would be about $500/mo andI still get the $8500 rebate. If gas goes up 40%, my savings will equate to 6 months of payments each year. What I need to know is that if I were to get the 2014 Leaf (top model) will it handle the distance (I can charge at work)? I also hear rumors that Nissan is coming out with a car with a battery range of 200km. If the latter is true, should I wait? If not, can someone answer the former question for me? Thanks for your help

Here's my anecdotal opinion. I'll break it out into several points.

1. Your 55 mile commute will be doable in most circumstances, but during the winter if you're driving at fast freeway speeds with the heater on, it may be tougher.
2. You should definitely buy the SV model if you go with the leaf. The SV has a different heater that will use less power in the winter.
3. Beware of battery degradation. Over time it will cause a decrease in range. The 2015 models use a new "lizard" battery that is supposed to be much better than prior years and early data seems to support this, but either way there will be likely some degradation over time. At your rate you will be racking up the miles pretty quickly so after 3 years, you'd see some degradation, I'd estimate between 15-20% give or take. This may be enough to put impact your winter commute.
4. Obviously a lease is out of the question for you since you'd be way over the mileage limit, but if you wind up buying, negotiate the hell out of the price as you will need to either sell the car in 3-4 years or keep it and put a new battery in it.
5. Currently the cost for a Leaf replacement battery is $5500 plus installation. You may need to buy one in 4-5 years at your rate of driving, assuming you keep that car past then. This price could drop, or maybe they will offer an increased range replacement, but who knows.
6. How reliable is your work charger? Are there a lot of them? You will definitely need it for the trip home, so if its just one charger and a few employees have EVs, you'd be in a tough spot. Is it an L2 charger? Because an L1 would take quite a bit of time to charge.
7. Have you factored in the cost of putting in an L2 charger at home? You'll likely need one to support your commute and effectively charge and pre-heat the car. (Pre-Heating will drain some power if you're not on L2)
8. Yes, there will be quite a few 200 mile, sub $40K EVs out in 1.5-2 years (Nissan Leaf Gen2, Tesla3, Chevy Bolt) and you could wait. I'm not sure what the rebate situation is in Canada and whether there is a chance that some will expire prior to these cars being released. You also might want to consider the 2016 Chevy Volt, which should be out in 9 months or so. It is supposed to have 50 miles of pure electric range. With that you could do just about your entire commute, plug in at work and drive home electric as well. You'd also not have to worry about getting stranded or having a car that wouldn't make the drive in 5 years.

It will only work for you if you have reliable L2 charging at work and at home. I was making my 52-mile (26 each way) round trip commute with A/C use with my 2011 when the battery had deteriorated enough to qualify for replacement. I was using almost all of the battery capacity, arriving home after getting very low battery warning a few miles back. At that point, it would not have made your 55-mile trip in cold weather because the battery stores a bit less energy when it is cold. Nissan put a new battery in and it was like a new car for another year until it was destroyed. The heat pump in my 2015 is much more efficient for heating so you should not even consider one without a heat pump. If you would not be comfortable hitting the low battery warning every trip and the very low battery warning on cold days or when traffic is moving fast, then you need something with more range than the LEAF.

I don't know if they are available to you, but if they are, you might want to consider the Volt or BMW i3 with range extender motor. You would minimize your gasoline consumption and you would not need to worry about getting to a charging station if something happened to reduce your range.

Gerry

Welcome. You asked some of the most disputed questions about the LEAF which will likely spark some arguments.

The fuel cost savings are very real. However, if trying to justify this purchase on a cash-flow basis, need to balance the cash savings with the very poor resale that is quickly evolving with the LEAF. My thought is this is a break-even at best in my own case. From a pure economic perspective, it's unlikely I would have obtained a LEAF if I had known gas prices were going to collapse in recent months.

Will it do the job? My personal gut hunch is yes. However, your workplace charging arrangement needs to be 240v (L2) and rock-solid 100% reliable. Depending on where in Canada (and how frosty it gets) the range available for your 1-way commute will likely be a challenge on some days or if/when significant battery capacity loss is encountered. Relying upon a LEAF involves knowing it's limits, being willing to accept those limits, and having a "Plan B" for those days. My own "Plan B" is having several L2 charging opportunities along the route, alternate routes with reduced speeds, and owning a 2nd ICE car for cold winter days.

I think the Leaf would be a mistake for your commute, as would the I-3 (the REX seems to be poorly designed for regular use at highway speed). You need either a Tesla or a PHEV like the Volt or Prius PHEV. I suggest the Prius PHEV, if you can find one, as it would give the best overall fuel economy.

dwayner63 said:

My commute is 90 km or 55 miles one way. My commute is 1 1/4 hours in rush hour traffic so I do some start and stopping on the highway.
...
I also hear rumors that Nissan is coming out with a car with a battery range of 200km.

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As has already been stated, you MUST have access to reliable charging on both ends (work and home).

As for 200 km... FWIW, Nissan says they already got there :roll: (on inflated European tests). See http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=13264&start=30" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

The first sentence says everything you need to say: you're in Canada and you have a RT commute > 50 miles or so. I won't re-hash some of the good analysis done, but you can't expect to make that commute over the life of the Leaf. I don't have to deal with some of the winter extremes here in TX, but you have to be cognizant of the real range limitations.

I'm in a very similar situation..
I have a 60 mile one way commute.

BUT...
I have a L2/DCQC spot in the middle of my commute that is very reliable.
I don't "need" to use it currently, but considering battery degradation over time, I am planning on it.
(It's part of the Aerovironment network, which is currently $20 for unlimited charging, so I factored that into the cost)

I wouldn't have got my Leaf if that wasn't an option. Just to close to the edge...
Also the charging spot in the middle for me has nice hot chocolate in the morning (or soda for when it's warmer), so I actually like the stop. I've done it several times even tho I can make it straight thru.

I tried the my route with the stop (for hot chocolate ) a few times before I went for it, because I wanted to full feel of what it will be like when I get there. Added time (about 15 minutes each stop), etc...
When the battery degrades (especially in the winter) you'll want to remember that you're also adding half an hour or so to your commute also. Your time is worth something too.. ;-)
For me, I took that into consideration, along with the "I really want an EV!!!" and the "I really want and EV!!!" won. ;-)

I figure I'll do this for 3 to 4 years (battery will be degraded by then, even tho I'm in the PNW..) and then be ready for an upgrade to a 200 mile EV, which should be available by then.. ;-)

So, if I'm mad in 3 years because of the stops, time, etc.. I only have myself to blame... ;-)

desiv

I read the OP's post three times. At no point did I see a mention that workplace charging is available. So, unless there is confirmation of that, I'd say this is a no-go for sure. Even with 120V charging available, I don't believe this would be a workable option. L2 charging would be a requirement. Even then, I'm some what concerned about the winter.

adric22 said:

I read the OP's post three times. At no point did I see a mention that workplace charging is available

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Hmm...

OP said:

(I can charge at work)

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Although, he doesn't say if it's L1 (won't work for what he wants) or L2.

desiv

desiv said:

Hmm...

OP said:

(I can charge at work)

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I stand corrected.. don't know how I missed that (unless he edited and added it later)

Stanton said:

The first sentence says everything you need to say: you're in Canada and you have a RT commute > 50 miles or so. I won't re-hash some of the good analysis done, but you can't expect to make that commute over the life of the Leaf. ...

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+10
The LEAF might work in year 1 if OP work place charging is completely reliable L2.
Year two questionable.
All the SV or SL heat pump heater does is provide somewhat better range down to around 20F.
The OP is in Canada.
It is way colder than that for quite a few days.
The cold weather severe range impact is not just the heater.
It is reduced range due to cold battery and due to increased drag due to the density of very cold air.

A four year old 2011 LEAF with two missing capacity bars is nominally a 30 to 35 mile vehicle in very cold weather if you want the cabin heated.

2015 battery in Canada may maintain range longer.
But still a big gamble.

Me again. I am not concerned about the battery replacement. In spite of the fact that I put 40 to 50,000 km (30,000 miles), the fuel savings in one year would offset the battery cost. Furthermore, there is a warranty on the battery that says that if the battery cannot reach 80% full charge for the first 160,000 km or 100,000 miles that it will be replaced free of charge. My work does not have a 240v charger but we are moving in December to a new building and my employer is willing to put one in free of charge. If I worked it out now, on slow charge at 7KM per hour for 10hrs, that covers 70 of my 90 km charge needed. Since I should have less some charge left over when I arrive to work, I should be okay to get back home. Worst case scenario, a 30 minute stop at any of the 4 Nissan dealers along the way home would help if necessary.

I like your enthusiasm.. ;-)

dwayner63 said:

Me again. I am not concerned about the battery replacement. In spite of the fact that I put 40 to 50,000 km (30,000 miles), the fuel savings in one year would offset the battery cost. Furthermore, there is a warranty on the battery that says that if the battery cannot reach 80% full charge for the first 160,000 km or 100,000 miles that it will be replaced free of charge.

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I don't think that's what the warranty says..
Also, the battery degrades over time, so the question is whether or not in 3 or 4 years (I wouldn't expect sooner in a cooler climate, but ???), will it make your commute.
If I were a betting man, I'd say no and you will be charging somewhere on the way to/from work each day as well.
It might not (probably and most probably not with heat).

dwayner63 said:

My work does not have a 240v charger but we are moving in December to a new building and my employer is willing to put one in free of charge.

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Nice to see..

dwayner63 said:

If I worked it out now, on slow charge at 7KM per hour for 10hrs, that covers 70 of my 90 km charge needed. Since I should have less some charge left over when I arrive to work, I should be okay to get back home. Worst case scenario, a 30 minute stop at any of the 4 Nissan dealers along the way home would help if necessary.

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Possibly, but it will charge a bit slower in cold weather also (especially outdoors, which I'm guessing it will.
And those KM regained per hour numbers are optimistic, and based on driving style.
My guess it you won't get enough back, but math isn't my strongest area. ;-)

If you're going into this, I'd recommend planning on worst case, and that will require you to stop at the dealer (or somewhere else).
Now, charging at dealers has been problematic.
Some dealers are fine. Some are fine if you bought the car there. Some are passivley/actively against it.
My local dealer says it's fine, but they ALWAYS park one of thier Leafs by their QC, requiring you to ask them to move it to charge. Every time. So they will do it, but they passively make it awkward. (And that's fine, it's their charger..)

So I'd keep that in mind. As a result of that, I've never used the charger there (I have other options tho).

desiv

dwayner63 said:

Me again. I am not concerned about the battery replacement. In spite of the fact that I put 40 to 50,000 km (30,000 miles), the fuel savings in one year would offset the battery cost. Furthermore, there is a warranty on the battery that says that if the battery cannot reach 80% full charge for the first 160,000 km or 100,000 miles that it will be replaced free of charge. My work does not have a 240v charger but we are moving in December to a new building and my employer is willing to put one in free of charge. If I worked it out now, on slow charge at 7KM per hour for 10hrs, that covers 70 of my 90 km charge needed. Since I should have less some charge left over when I arrive to work, I should be okay to get back home. Worst case scenario, a 30 minute stop at any of the 4 Nissan dealers along the way home would help if necessary.

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The warrany is not what you've described. The battery has a 5yr 60k warranty on capacity. If it drops below 9 bars (roughly 67%) they will replace the battery, but only promise to do so with a battery with 9 bars or higher. Recent warranty replacements have been brand new batteries, but I doubt that will continue forever. The 100k battery warranty you speak of is only for workmanship and other problems not necessarily related to capacity.

dwayner63 said:

Me again. I am not concerned about the battery replacement. In spite of the fact that I put 40 to 50,000 km (30,000 miles), the fuel savings in one year would offset the battery cost. Furthermore, there is a warranty on the battery that says that if the battery cannot reach 80% full charge for the first 160,000 km or 100,000 miles that it will be replaced free of charge. My work does not have a 240v charger but we are moving in December to a new building and my employer is willing to put one in free of charge. If I worked it out now, on slow charge at 7KM per hour for 10hrs, that covers 70 of my 90 km charge needed. Since I should have less some charge left over when I arrive to work, I should be okay to get back home. Worst case scenario, a 30 minute stop at any of the 4 Nissan dealers along the way home would help if necessary.

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Dwayner63, you said Canada, but not where. You should add an approximate location in your user profile so it's visible for those of us who don't remember every users. Temps really affect the range. In southern BC, you'll have less problems than in Nunavuk. Your one-way commute will likely be fine in the summer, but winter can be a real problem, especially below -10 C. Do a quick search and read some of your compatriot's experiences. I'd be less worried about battery degradation (it's slower at lower temps), than winter temperature-induced range reduction. Also, a 1.5 hr commute would be difficult without passenger heat, which is one way to really reduce range. I've done 65 mi at 20-25 F, but it was without heat and certainly not for my daily commute.

No way in hell would a LEAF work for more than a year or so in winter, unless dwayner63's in a coastal climate where the ocean can moderate the low temps. A Kia Soul EV would give them more range, but even that would be cutting it close in a few years. Either get a (2016) Volt, or wait a couple of years for when real world 200+ km range is available for less than $40,000 (U.S.) before subsidies.

As mentioned upthread, the heat pump in the LEAF/Soul will only help your range in fall or spring, not in the depth of winter.

dwayner63 said:

Me again. I am not concerned about the battery replacement. In spite of the fact that I put 40 to 50,000 km (30,000 miles), the fuel savings in one year would offset the battery cost. Furthermore, there is a warranty on the battery that says that if the battery cannot reach 80% full charge for the first 160,000 km or 100,000 miles that it will be replaced free of charge. My work does not have a 240v charger but we are moving in December to a new building and my employer is willing to put one in free of charge. If I worked it out now, on slow charge at 7KM per hour for 10hrs, that covers 70 of my 90 km charge needed. Since I should have less some charge left over when I arrive to work, I should be okay to get back home. Worst case scenario, a 30 minute stop at any of the 4 Nissan dealers along the way home would help if necessary.

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Hi, I live in Waterloo, ON. I have a 2015 SV since October 2014, almost 6 months already, and I have a Charging Station L2 installed at home. My commute is 64 km RT (50% highway). I can tell you that this winter, and we had a long spell of very cold weather, the worst I had left in the battery was 18% and that was a day when temperature was below -20C all day. I keep the car in the garage overnight and outside at work. I do not charge at work although I can use a 110V outlet. I've never had to turn off the heat to conserve energy and most of the days I use the Carwings app to start the heating about 5 min before taking off. Today for ex (+5C) I had 38% left when I got back home. 1hr. of L2 charging gives me about 30% battery, so after dinner the car is ready to run errands or go to activities.
In conclusion, if you have charging availability at work this is feasible, otherwise it's a headache. For me it works just fine, we have a second car, a Rogue btw, that we use for my wife's commute (which is shorter), longer trips or the odd day when is not enough time to recharge, which at some point it happens when you have kids and a tight schedule. This car is perfect as a second family car, not the only car, or at least I would't recommend it in my area, the lack of charging points makes it frustrating some times. I'd like to see L3 stations around or at least in all OnRoutes along 401 (as they advertise), then it would't be a problem anymore.

The question is not whether you can do the commute now- It's whether you can do the commute later.

A 55 mile trip in the summer with a brand new battery is no problem.
A 55 mile trip in the winter with a brand new battery is probably doable.
A 55 mile trip in the summer with a battery that has degraded 30% is probably doable.
A 55 mile trip in the winter with a degraded battery is not doable.

A 35% loss of range is typical in extreme cold. Combine that with a degraded battery (which Nissan will not replace until it reaches over 30% capacity loss), and you have a recipe for a car that will be parked in the driveway.

Another thing to consider is the battery capacity warranty. If you drive 55 miles per day just commuting, you'll probably rack up over 15,000 miles per year. With that many miles, your warranty will only last you 4 years.

A better immediately option is the Kia Soul EV.
-93 mile range.
-Active air cooled battery with a 10-year, 100,000-mile warranty.
-CHAdeMO standard.

Or you can wait for the second generation LEAF, but it will probably be another year or two.

dwayner63 said:

...Since I should have less some charge left over when I arrive to work, I should be okay to get back home. Worst case scenario, a 30 minute stop at any of the 4 Nissan dealers along the way home would help if necessary.

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With that information, the current LEAF will work for your situation.
But the other question you posed about whether you should wait for longer range Gen 2 LEAF?

You should wait.
With the mileage you put on a vehicle, you have to purchase.
LEAF market values are already dreadful.
Likely will get worse if Gen 2 has double the range option.

If you buy now, you will need to drive it four years or more.
If you sell it to buy double range Gen 2 in 1 1/2 or 2 years it will be a very costly $ loss on the sale.