Will ANY 2011/2012 LEAFs still have 80% capacity at 5 years?

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RegGuheert

RegGuheert

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Put another way, will we see ANY 2011/2012 LEAFs which cross the five-year mark with either 11 or 12 battery capacity bars still showing?

The reason I am using this metric is because of the statement Nissan made on page EV-3 of the 2011 LEAF Owner's Manual:
2011 LEAF Owner's Manual page EV-3 said:
NISSAN estimates that battery capacity will be approximately 80% of original capacity after five years, although this is only an estimate, and this percentage may vary (and could be significantly lower) depending on individual vehicle and Li-ion battery usage.
Click to expand...
I've been thinking about this question quite a bit lately as our LEAF has gone through the coldest winter that we have seen in a LONG time, yet it has steady lost capacity with very little driving. At this point we have about 58 Ah capacity remaining, which is about 87.5% of the original 66.25 Ah. We have owned our LEAF for about two years now, but it is a demo with 2.5 years gone from the warranty.

I am one who believes that calendar losses on the LEAF are closer to linear than logarithmic, so I expect our battery capacity to drop below the 80% mark well before five years are up. The question I have is if even low-mileage LEAFs found in cold climates will achieve the level that Nissan officially estimated in our Owner's Manuals.
 
Good question Reg. We're in the same boat and we'll have to see. I opted out of the class action suit for this very reason. If we, cold-weather, low mileage drivers don't see 80% at 5 yr, then Nissan was flat out lying. I still enjoy the car, and will drive it until it has less than 20 mi range. However, if that is before 2030, I will be disappointed.
 
Ours is now 3 Years and 2 months old and still shows 12 bars, though capacity is down to 60 Ah, which is ~ 90%.
If the theory of slowing capacity loss over time holds (even if there was linear degradation over time), I would expect to lose less than 10% in the next 2 years.

So yes, 80% after 5 years in the almost optimal Pacific Northwest climate seems possible.
 
The words "estimate", and "significantly less" are rather important to understand.

Mine is still showing 12 cap bars, after 3 years, but it has the original firmware,
and is probably down about 13 percent. However, we have yet to see what the
next 24 months brings.
 
garygid said:
The words "estimate", and "significantly less" are rather important to understand.

Mine is still showing 12 cap bars, after 3 years, but it has the original firmware,
and is probably down about 13 percent. However, we have yet to see what the
next 24 months brings.
Click to expand...

Same here, 3 years in and 44k miles later I have 12 bars and feel down 10-14% on range. April 2011 firmware.

Wouldn't it be nice if the range went up over time!!
 
Almost 37000 miles 2 years and 9 months, 56.56Ah SOC 86%, latest firmware, all capacity bars. The last two days the 80% gave me only 9 charging bars :eek: . Still, if the degraedation is linear, I should be over 70% at the 5 year mark.
 
Now that it's March of 2014 - and looking back 3 years, we're just getting to the place where there are/were a few hundred leafs delivered. With the crowd that are already complaining of premature capacity loss - I'd think the more germain question would be whether or not will any 2011's have 12 bars at FOUR years. Like the other Gary, my 3yr aniversary is right about now (actually - day after tomorrow). At 40k+ miles & 3yrs, I still have all 12bars ... but I doubt ANY one baby drives / charges like I do ... seldom charging/discharging anything but the middle 50% ... with most of that finishing before 4am. If I can't make it to 48k-50k miles & 4 years with all GOM bars ... NO one can. that's my goal ... wish me luck!
:D
 
Hill, I'll race you to it. I think there will also be a small effect from mileage driven. I'm averaging around 7000 mi/yr, so will likely be under 30,000 mi after 4 yrs. Given that my driving is nearly all <40 mph, I might still have 12 bars, but then again, I blast the heat in the winter. Also, we have a couple of weeks of very hot weather in July/Aug, often approaching 110 F.
 
I'll provide a data point. I'm a PNW driver with relatively high mileage, but who has babied his battery. I have 50,200 miles on the odometer and took a 100% reading of 226 GIDs yesterday (54.61 Ahr capacity, 83% SOH, 67.81% Hx). I was sad to see the first bar go, but feel I am doing relatively well in the scheme of things.
 
Keep in mind that even if battery degradation slows with time, number of cycles will increase so per mile driven, battery degradation may actually increase with time. I am down about 15% right now, so if I was using 1 full cycle per day when battery was new, I now use 1.15 cycles per day. By the time I am down 25% of capacity I will be using 1.25 cycles per day. I am about 2 years 2 months into LEAF ownership, so by the time I reach 5 year mark I will probably be fully charging/discharging battery twice per day to drive the same distance (my average daily commute plus lunch is about 65-70 miles).

Given logic above, I don't see how my LEAF battery can reach 5 years (and 70k miles in my case) and remain usable. Nissan really needs to double battery capacity. That would significantly reduce number of charge/discharge cycles and prolong battery life, thus making this upgrade useful not only to those who drive as much as I do, but also to those who may only average 30 miles per day.
 
tcherniaev said:
Keep in mind that even if battery degradation slows with time, number of cycles will increase so per mile driven, battery degradation may actually increase with time. I am down about 15% right now, so if I was using 1 full cycle per day when battery was new, I now use 1.15 cycles per day. By the time I am down 25% of capacity I will be using 1.25 cycles per day. I am about 2 years 2 months into LEAF ownership, so by the time I reach 5 year mark I will probably be fully charging/discharging battery twice per day to drive the same distance (my average daily commute plus lunch is about 65-70 miles).

Given logic above, I don't see how my LEAF battery can reach 5 years (and 70k miles in my case) and remain usable. Nissan really needs to double battery capacity. That would significantly reduce number of charge/discharge cycles and prolong battery life, thus making this upgrade useful not only to those who drive as much as I do, but also to those who may only average 30 miles per day.
Click to expand...

You raise an interesting point. For roughly the first 30 months, I was only using one 100% cycle a day. Now I use two 80% cycles a day.. Not sure how that hashes out in terms of battery health (#cycles vs. keeping the battery in the 30-80% SOC range for all cycles).
 
RegGuheert said:
Put another way, will we see ANY 2011/2012 LEAFs which cross the five-year mark with either 11 or 12 battery capacity bars still showing?
...
Click to expand...
Some in the US Pacific Northwest and in Northeast and upper midwest will achieve that, and most in Norway, Ireland, UK will.

But Nissan's statements were based on the average LEAF achieving that.
With the geographic distribtion of the 2011 and 2012, my guess is less than 15% achieve that.

Very few in the southern part of US will.
 
2012 Leaf originally in North Carolina, now in Tennessee.

40,000 miles
SOH 81%
AHr 53.31

I didn't own the car when it lost it's first bar but I expect to see the second bar drop soon. I don't think the car will make it to the 4 year mark with 11 bars.

At the 5 year mark I'll be near 70% (not sure if over or under but the car is averaging 6% loss per year IF the SOH started at 100%, I didn't own the car at new so I'm not sure the actual starting SOH or AHr).
 
dhanson865 said:
2012 Leaf originally in North Carolina, now in Tennessee.

40,000 miles
SOH 81%
AHr 53.31

...At the 5 year mark I'll be near 70% (not sure if over or under but the car is averaging 6% loss per year...
Click to expand...
Only if you expect your gid losses to continue in a straight line.

For useful explanation of both nominal capacity (gid) loss and actual capacity loss, watch the video below:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1tfX7fRWPI

At ~ 30 seconds, Andy Palmer mentions the "...degradation is nonlinear, so it's a curve that looks like this..." (as he draws a declining rate of loss over time).

And at ~ five minutes, Palmer also states that bar/gid reports from the LBC overstate capacity loss, "...that meter reads pessimistically..."

Both of those statements made almost three years ago seem to now have been confirmed by my own LEAF packs experience of loss of both nominal (LBC-reported) and actual available capacity, in kWh of charge accepted, as estimated from measurements using an external meter.

My LEAF's LBC reported ~19.5% loss of capacity after ~three years and ~27k miles, and I estimate it actually lost ~10.5% of it's average available charge accepted (calculated from the AVTA baseline test average for 2011 LEAFs, ~23.4 kWh).

I have no reason to believe my pack was other than ~the average 2011 capacity on delivery, so I believe the average rate of nominal/actual capacity loss was ~6.5%/~3.5% over the first three years.

After the fourth year from delivery, in mid may of 2015, My LEAF with ~36 k miles, showed ~23% nominal capacity loss, and ~12.5 % loss in kWh of charge accepted.

So, the rates of both nominal and actual capacity loss seems to have slowed considerably, to ~3.5 %/~2.0% during the fourth year.

I hope to continue to update at years five to ten (?).
 
tcherniaev said:
Keep in mind that even if battery degradation slows with time, number of cycles will increase so per mile driven, battery degradation may actually increase with time..
Click to expand...
I think word is still out on how much of an effect charging cycles actually has.
That 100K mile 12-bar Leaf in the UK with GOBS of charges makes one wonder...

It's possible (likely?) that charging combined with conditions (QCs when the battery is already hot) will make a significant difference.

But in ideal climates, I'm not yet sure what the major variables are, other than age...

desiv
 
Only ones in very cold climates... Likely the same applies to 2013 models too...

RegGuheert said:
Put another way, will we see ANY 2011/2012 LEAFs which cross the five-year mark with either 11 or 12 battery capacity bars still showing?
Click to expand...
 
edatoakrun said:
At ~ 30 seconds, Andy Palmer mentions the "...degradation is nonlinear, so it's a curve that looks like this..." (as he draws a declining rate of loss over time).
Click to expand...


I don't have any scientific data to prove it but it feels that my curve is very different from Andy's as I lost my 3rd bar sooner than the 2nd.
 

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