powersurge wrote:I can imagine that as the EV car saturation develops in the next few years, New electric cars will go up in price. Even If not by a lot, the new EVs will go up in price due to ... the federal and state tax credits will disappear. Then, all of a sudden, all Leafs will suddenly be worth $5-7K more, and it WILL BE WORTH IT TO CHANGE THE BATTERIES...
That is when the true value of having a Leaf will be seen. At this time, people are spoiled in that they can by a PRACTICALLY NEW CAR for $6-9K, and are complaining that a $5000 battery is worth scrapping the car.. Yet, in the regular used car market, people dump $10-15K on a used car (no warranty) like nothing!! Man, no matter how good we have it, we still think we are getting a bad deal..
I would argue the opposite of the first point. Losing the tax rebates will force automakers to lower prices, not raise prices. That's why there are rumors of Nissan trying to set the MSRP of the new Leaf at $24K. This is the price it would need to be without tax rebates.
The price of used Leaf's will go up based on demand, which will go up when more people realize how much fun and cost-savings they provide, in addition to being better for the environment. I think the used market is "fast-follower" market that takes new technologies to scale. I bought a used leaf about a month ago, and have already convinced several people who hadn't even considered an EV to look into it. They approach me every day with new deals they found on autotrader. It's only a matter of time before they close a deal.
I totally agree that a new battery will be totally worth it, and shouldn't prevent anyone from buying a used car at their current prices. I bought my 2014 with 14,000 miles on it for $10K. In 3-5 years I wouldn't hesitate to pay for a battery. The thing about EVs is that the ride quality doesn't degrade with age like an ICE car. How much would a used civic cost if it would ride like new for 200,000 miles?