When will used Leaf's be $11k or under?

Hi
So I'm currently a Volt driver and will be looking into getting a used leaf this summer or fall.

My daily commute is 42 miles, about 9 months out of the year I can make that in all electric with the volt and the other three months I'm usually only short by a mile or two. I think my commute lends itself to a Leaf. I have been following the forum for some time and know that there are battery issues, but I haven't seen to many people come up short of 42 miles. Not saying it doesn't happen, but that it's not the norm. My commute also has the possibility of getting very short in a few years. (Site Move).

So, to the subject. When do you think used Leaf's will start to hover around $11,000 and still provide at least 42 (hopefully more) range.

Thanks
Dave

Just went to trade my 2011 in and it was valued at 11.5 wholesale. FYI forget buying a used one, my commute was 22 miles one way, car had a "5 star" battery report and 11 bars left and was down to 55miles of range. Go lease a fiat for 0 down $199, or a chevy sparc for $800 down $199/ month. Sparc is CA only right now, not sure about the fiat. Just stay away from any EV that is over 2 years old if you expect to get a couple years of commute out of it.

hugenbd said:

Hi
...When do you think used Leaf's will start to hover around $11,000 and still provide at least 42 (hopefully more) range.

Thanks
Dave

Click to expand...

All LEAF's will always have more than "42 miles" of range, at most speeds and temperatures and with moderate heater use, as long at the traction battery retains ~70% of new (which is often considered EOL) capacity.

2011 LEAFs with low miles and DC capability currently look to be selling for ~$15,000.

http://www.ebay.com/csc/Cars-Trucks-/6001/i.html?LH_Complete=1&Make=Nissan&_nkw=leaf&_cqr=true&_dcat=6001&_dmpt=US_Cars_Trucks&_gcs=13&_ipg=50&_momoc=1&_nkwusc=LEAQF&_pcats=6000&_rusck=1&_sofindtype=22&_sop=7&_rdc=3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Future prices for used BEVs will probably vary with USA gasoline prices, as even short-range BEVs should be able to largely pay for themselves with four or five-figure savings on ICEV gasoline and maintenance costs, over their remaining useful lives.

My guesses for when a 2011 DC-capable LEAF driven ~12,000 miles a year will sell for ~$11,000, assuming various future average USA (inflation-adjusted) gasoline prices:

$2 gas: Tomorrow?

$3 gas: January 2016

$4 gas: January 2018

$5 gas: January 2020

$6 gas: never?

Look for one the same way you'd look for an ICE under book value: try to find one with cosmetic damage that doesn't affect operation. Preferably one you can fix if you find you like it.

edatoakrun said:

My guesses for when a 2011 DC-capable LEAF driven ~12,000 miles a year will sell for ~$11,000, assuming various future average USA (inflation-adjusted) gasoline prices:

$2 gas: Tomorrow?

$3 gas: January 2016

$4 gas: January 2018

$5 gas: January 2020

$6 gas: never?

Click to expand...

I don't know where you're getting those figures. In my part of SoCal gas has already reached $4/gallon again at many gas stations. A check of GasBuddy.com shows gas in Redding to be at least $3.64, not sure what it is in your part of Shasta County.

I just did a road trip across the Southwest and the cheapest I paid was $2.99 and that was for E85. "Real" unleaded gas, the cheapest was $3.15 at the Costco in Tucson. It's been perhaps a decade since I last saw $2/gal gas in California.

Trade in value is already bouncing on $11,000 if it has some miles.
Put a wanted advertisement up for your $11,000 and snag someone that would prefer to sell direct vs trade in.
Try to get one that is on track for battery warranty replacement.

Mine was $16k, 10 bar but only 5100 miles on it. Some minor dings. SL with QC, only missing the heated seats I think. I don't think $11k is undoable, but it might be a while unless you give someone cash vs. them trading it in.

beachfitrob said:

Mine was $16k, 10 bar but only 5100 miles on it. Some minor dings. SL with QC, only missing the heated seats I think. I don't think $11k is undoable, but it might be a while unless you give someone cash vs. them trading it in.

Click to expand...

Wow! 2 capacity bars lost at 5100 miles? I guess that TX heat (or wherever it came from) really cooked the battery, in addition to the calendar losses.

The '12 added some forced features, such as the heated seats: http://www.autoblog.com/2011/07/19/2012-nissan-leaf-higher-price-tag-standard-equipment/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

smkettner said:

Try to get one that is on track for battery warranty replacement.

Click to expand...

Re: that, if the OP doesn't know, http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=13192" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=13331" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; may help.

Re: gas prices, up here in Nor cal, I recall seeing some regular unleaded past $3.80/gal recently and I think I saw a station past $4/gal for regular recently.

smkettner said:

Trade in value is already bouncing on $11,000 if it has some miles.
Put a wanted advertisement up for your $11,000 and snag someone that would prefer to sell direct vs trade in.
Try to get one that is on track for battery warranty replacement.

Click to expand...

Wow, nice to know it's close to trade in value now. I will put up a wanted add when I'm ready.

Only problem is I'm in Cincinnati, so would have to truck/ship it home.

I don't think I would have a problem making my commute as I routinely make it on under 10kwh that the Volt provides.. If I did I can switch cars, or at least switch in the cold months.

Thanks for the discussion all very good info so far.

Dave

I sold mine private party last month, below $13k and close to the trade-in value. It was a 2011 SL with Q/C, 36k miles and in need of tires replacement soon. I think it is also about to lose the 12th bar.

I sold it within a week. I probably would have gotten $1k+ more if I advertised longer. But I didn't want to drag it out and spend additional time to screen for and meet potential buyers.

^^^^
Out of curiosity, did you try selling it to Nissan dealers? If so, did any give you decent offers?

cwerdna said:

^^^^
Out of curiosity, did you try selling it to Nissan dealers? If so, did any give you decent offers?

Click to expand...

No, I did not try any Nissan dealers.

But another Leaf owner who sold the car told me that the trade-in offer from the Nissan dealer was even lower.

I see. The only reason why I ask is because of what I posted at http://priuschat.com/threads/pip-trade-in-value.130575/#post-1861174" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

RonDawg said:

edatoakrun said:

My guesses for when a 2011 DC-capable LEAF driven ~12,000 miles a year will sell for ~$11,000, assuming various future average USA (inflation-adjusted) gasoline prices:

$2 gas: Tomorrow?

$3 gas: January 2016

$4 gas: January 2018

$5 gas: January 2020

$6 gas: never?

Click to expand...

I don't know where you're getting those figures. In my part of SoCal gas has already reached $4/gallon again at many gas stations. A check of GasBuddy.com shows gas in Redding to be at least $3.64, not sure what it is in your part of Shasta County.

I just did a road trip across the Southwest and the cheapest I paid was $2.99 and that was for E85. "Real" unleaded gas, the cheapest was $3.15 at the Costco in Tucson. It's been perhaps a decade since I last saw $2/gal gas in California.

Click to expand...

I think you are misunderstanding his post. The numbers aren't what he thinks gas prices will be in those years. The numbers are in the form of:

If gas is price X then it will be year Y when a Leaf will sell for $11,000.

Does that make more sense now?

I disagree with his guesses, I think the rest of the thread makes it clear you can get a Leaf now at or near that $11,000 price. FWIW regular gas national average price is currently $3.489

="dhanson865"

...I think the rest of the thread makes it clear you can get a Leaf now at or near that $11,000 price...

Click to expand...

The sum of any number of misstatements does not equate to the truth.

That's worth remembering when examining much of the misinformation pervading MNL, BTW.

2011 LEAFs with low miles and DC capability currently look to be selling for ~$15,000.

http://www.ebay.com/csc/Cars-Trucks-/6001/i.html?LH_Complete=1&Make=Nissan&_nkw=leaf&_cqr=true&_dcat=6001&_dmpt=US_Cars_Trucks&_gcs=13&_ipg=50&_momoc=1&_nkwusc=LEAQF&_pcats=6000&_rusck=1&_sofindtype=22&_sop=7&_rdc=3" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Click to expand...

Anyone here with a clean 2011 LEAF with low miles and DC capability who wants to sell it for ~$4k below market?

Pretty sure the $11,000 mentioned was trade in value not retail value.

smkettner said:

Pretty sure the $11,000 mentioned was trade in value not retail value.

Click to expand...

And it's my experience that private sales happen very near the trade in value. Higher than trade in most cases but not all. Some people just don't like to sell their car to the dealer they buy the next one from.

I'm already seeing SV and SL leafs on autotrader for $14,000 at dealerships. I bet you they didn't pay that much for them.

then there is http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=8354&start=230" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; which is a good place to look to see what kind of haggle room your have since auction prices may be what the dealer paid for the car

average Dec (month) 2013 $13,404
average (week ending) Jan 29 2014 $13,596
average (week ending) Feb 10 2014 $13,200

estimated Mar 2014 $12,650

remember if the average was 13,200 some sales were below that price. How much below we can't say from that information.

I really expect the used value to drop significantly this summer after more battery bar loss due to heat (prompting owners to trade in or sell) and more cars coming off lease (meaning more for sale).

dhanson865 said:

smkettner said:

Pretty sure the $11,000 mentioned was trade in value not retail value.

Click to expand...

And it's my experience that private sales happen very near the trade in value. Higher than trade in most cases but not all. Some people just don't like to sell their car to the dealer they buy the next one from.

I'm already seeing SV and SL leafs on autotrader for $14,000 at dealerships. I bet you they didn't pay that much for them.

then there is and viewtopic.php?f=23&t=8354&start=230 which is a good place to look to see what kind of haggle room your have since auction prices may be what the dealer paid for the car

average Dec (month) 2013 $13,404
average (week ending) Jan 29 2014 $13,596
average (week ending) Feb 10 2014 $13,200

estimated Mar 2014 $12,650

remember if the average was 13,200 half the sales were below that price. How much below we can't say from that information.

I really expect the used value to drop significantly this summer after more battery bar loss due to heat (prompting owners to trade in or sell) and more cars coming off lease (meaning more for sale).

Click to expand...

That's good information to have..... (Average Above).

Do we know when the number of cars coming off Lease this summer? (Example, 1200 in June)?

I'm not to concerned with battery loss, as long as I could make 42 miles most of the year. I can do some lite hypermiling. (i.e. no heat, drive the limit, etc.). Also, those with battery bar loss, may actually be a good deal depending on the timing/miles and the warranty replacement.

Dave

dhanson865 said:

then there is http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=8354&start=230" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; which is a good place to look to see what kind of haggle room your have since auction prices may be what the dealer paid for the car

Click to expand...

I broke that link in the prior post, just fixed it.

edit: I also fixed the statement about prices below the average, we don't know that it is exactly half the sales, we don't know the distribution of prices above, below, or on the average.

While the emergence of 2011's coming off lease should result in a lowering of prices, I would imagine that most lease returns would flow through dealers not private party transactions. I suspect the best chance of getting a real steal (which is what you are seeking) is from a private party sale unless you have access to those auctions. Of course, if the lease supply leads dealers to lower their prices, that would put pressure on the prices that private sellers would be able to catch, but it may not be in synch or a 1 for 1 scale.

The web should have data as to how many leafs were sold in each month in 2011. But of course, not all of those were leases and not all of those are going to be returned. It will be interesting to see how many do get returned at end of lease. I imagine a lot of analysts will be watching that closely as they assess the viability of the concept for these cars. If they get returned at a higher than normal rate, I can already hear the media trumpeting that the early adopters didn't like the car and were scrambling for the exits.

I wish you the best of luck. Finding one at that price point in your locale could be a real challenge.