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AndyH

Well-known member
Joined
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San Antonio
San Antonio's city-owned power company commissioned the city's first solar farm last November. I didn't expect to see the frameless panels!

http://www.cpsenergy.com/About_CPS_Energy/News_Features/News/110910_Blue_Wing_Dedication_NR.asp

14MW, 113 acres, 214,500 panels

Fly-Over Video:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOKreFjnzoM[/youtube]

Note some of the ...less than well informed... comments from National Conference of State Legislators attendees:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaPrYUOBP1M[/youtube]

Progress worth smiling about! :D
 
another example of how public power companies can do good. damn socialist :lol:
AndyH said:
San Antonio's city-owned power company commissioned the city's first solar farm last November. I didn't expect to see the frameless panels!
14MW, 113 acres, 214,500 panels
 
Solar PV is one of the most expensive ways to generate utility grade power, here is an unbiased levelized report on all the alternatives:

http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity_generation.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

about $0.21 per kwh, compared to $0.10 for wind.. the problem with solar is that it does not work at night, but you still have to pay for the panels.
 
Herm said:
the problem with solar is that it does not work at night, but you still have to pay for the panels.
No, the two problems with solar are that all of the cost comes up front and that there are huge difference in its value depending on where you are.

Note that the report assumes no state or federal tax credits or rebates, which produces a grossly inflated cost compared with the real situation today, and compounds that (literally) by amortizing the cost over 30 years at a rate (7.4%) that is far higher than the rate you can get today. These conditions might or might not exist five years from now, which is the start-up date the report is looking at, but they certainly do not exist today, so greatly distort technologies with front-loaded costs.

As you said, Herm, the report is "levelized", which means it ignores all regional advantages. Solar in Texas has huge advantages over solar in New York or Oregon. The report attempts to "levelize" for solar by assuming 25% availability everywhere.

So, the two problems with solar are that its characteristics cause this report to be highly biased against it, even though solar makes very good sense today in selected parts of the country, including where I live.

Incidentally, wind makes no sense at all here, because we rarely have wind speeds above 10 mph, despite the report assuming 34% levelized availability for wind.

Ray
 
Herm said:
Solar PV is one of the most expensive ways to generate utility grade power, here is an unbiased levelized report on all the alternatives:

http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity_generation.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

about $0.21 per kwh, compared to $0.10 for wind.. the problem with solar is that it does not work at night, but you still have to pay for the panels.
It doesn't appear that the EIA report accounts for externalities. It doesn't seem to account for the inability to actually finance an 'advanced nuclear' or coal plant. And coal with carbon capture and sequestration? That animal doesn't exist!

The 'facts on the ground' in San Antonio is that we do not have any type of tiered or time-of-use billing for electricity - and the average residential electricity rate for August was 9.2 cents per KWh. San Antonio has been bumping against air quality non-attainment for years. The city's found that their share of 10,000 MW of wind plus the utility-scale and distributed PV provides power exactly when we need it the most while supporting elimination of coal plants and allowing urban expansion without breaking the air quality ceiling.

Info from the Rocky Mountain Institute shows that while PV is more expensive per KWh than coal today, by the time each plant is installed, the PV will be on-line and producing sooner and it'll be less expensive than coal once the coal plant is on-line.
 
planet4ever said:
Note that the report assumes no state or federal tax credits or rebates, which produces a grossly inflated cost compared with the real situation today, and compounds that (literally) by amortizing the cost over 30 years at a rate (7.4%) that is far higher than the rate you can get today.

I like that it gets the subsidies and out of the way, so you can get a clearer picture of whats going on.. but I see your point about the financing rates that penalize projects with front loaded costs like solar. I doubt coal projects get subsidies or low rates.

planet4ever said:
As you said, Herm, the report is "levelized", which means it ignores all regional advantages. Solar in Texas has huge advantages over solar in New York or Oregon. The report attempts to "levelize" for solar by assuming 25% availability everywhere.

6 hours out of a day is pretty standard availablity for solar, how many hours do you get there?. Do you have actual cost figures for that solar project, and where the money came from?
 
AndyH said:
It doesn't appear that the EIA report accounts for externalities. It doesn't seem to account for the inability to actually finance an 'advanced nuclear' or coal plant. And coal with carbon capture and sequestration? That animal doesn't exist!

They do mention advanced coal, and did you notice the cost of nuclear? That includes the legal delays and cost of financing.

Carbon capture and sequestration is still experimental, same as IV generation advanced nukes. Apparently there is a market for CO2, it can be used to maintain pressure in oil fields and in combination with NG it can be used to make synthetic diesel. We may see more carbon capture out of coal plants.

The interesting part about this study is the low cost of wind, assuming it blows.
 
Herm said:
AndyH said:
It doesn't appear that the EIA report accounts for externalities. It doesn't seem to account for the inability to actually finance an 'advanced nuclear' or coal plant. And coal with carbon capture and sequestration? That animal doesn't exist!

They do mention advanced coal, and did you notice the cost of nuclear? That includes the legal delays and cost of financing.
Coal is on the way out, and I expect nuclear is as well. I don't expect CCS to take-off once the government-funded research program money stops.

We have some recent experience with a new nuclear project here in South Texas. In the end, even with my lobbying in favor of plant expansion ;), the misinformation and financing shell game severely weakened the project (and the Japanese disaster probably sealed its fate). In hindsight, and considering our severe drought, I'm happy that the project did not go forward.
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/NN-CPS_Energy_sees_need_for_new_STP_units-3006095.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.powermag.com/POWERnews/2409.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/energy/article/CPS-talkson-nuclearpower-halted-1240848.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/energy/article/NRG-will-no-longer-invest-in-STP-expansion-1343841.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/energy/article/CPS-halts-talks-on-buying-nuclear-power-1128743.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Herm said:
Carbon capture and sequestration is still experimental, same as IV generation advanced nukes. Apparently there is a market for CO2, it can be used to maintain pressure in oil fields and in combination with NG it can be used to make synthetic diesel. We may see more carbon capture out of coal plants.
I'm torn about moving forward to use carbon from power plants. On one hand, we could integrate environmental needs, emissions processing, and 'waste' streams into a closed system, like the Kalundborg, Denmark program. http://indigodev.com/Kal.html On the other, we need to cut CO2 emissions so dramatically, I think it's way too late to consider investing in progress over a 20 year period when we need it in five or 10 years.

Herm said:
The interesting part about this study is the low cost of wind, assuming it blows.
A giggle for you, Herm:
This is fascinating, since the rap on wind is that it's not dependable because "sometimes the wind stops blowing." In the real world, sometimes it also gets too hot or too cold for the supposedly dependable fueled peaking power plants to operate properly.
http://energy.aol.com/2011/08/10/wind-power-lessons-from-the-texas-heat-wave/

The good news is that we have scientists and engineers that use advanced instrumentation and very robust math skills to find the really, really windy parts of the country. ;) :p That's why folks like Pickens and Duke Energy plant wind farms in the Texas Panhandle and points north, while others plant towers near- and off-shore.

windsmodel.gif


In 2008, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers approved construction by Coastal Point Energy of an offshore meteorological tower at the site of the company's planned Galveston Wind Project. The company has since used the tower to gather over 30 months of wind data, which confirmed the site's "superior" profile for wind power generation, according to the company.
http://theenergycollective.com/jessejenkins/58832/texas-offshore-wind-energy-project-poised-be-first-water" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

City of San Antonio and Duke Energy plan another 20 MW of land-based wind on South Texas coast:
http://www.cpsenergy.com/About_CPS_...08082011_Los_Vientos_Windpower_Project_NR.asp
CPS Energy, the nation’s largest municipal buyer of wind energy and sixth among all energy providers, will soon add 200 megawatts (MW) of wind power to its growing renewable energy portfolio. Duke Energy Renewables, a commercial business unit of Duke Energy, will build, own, and operate the 200 MW Los Vientos I Windpower Project in Willacy County, located approximately 120 miles south of Corpus Christi and 20 miles inland from the Gulf of Mexico.

“We are getting this power at a very attractive price so it will benefit our customers in terms of a continuum of affordable rates along with the delivery of more clean, non-emitting energy,” said Cris Eugster, chief sustainability officer for CPS Energy.
 
IMHO the report is quite myopic to the actual costs of "dirty" alternatives like coal.
While it may costs less to build and operate, the effects (and costs) of extracting and burning coal are not accounted for.

AndyH said:
Herm said:
Solar PV is one of the most expensive ways to generate utility grade power, here is an unbiased levelized report on all the alternatives:

http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/electricity_generation.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

about $0.21 per kwh, compared to $0.10 for wind.. the problem with solar is that it does not work at night, but you still have to pay for the panels.
It doesn't appear that the EIA report accounts for externalities.
 
Damn, only 0.124 MW per acre of ground?

A nuclear plant would be about 1.7-2 MW, or more, per acre. Coal perhaps a bit less but the same order of magnitude. But then there's the amount of land required for the mines, especially for the strip-type mining. The land can eventually be reclaimed, and we're getting better at that, but still there's a lot of land damage for years, even decades.

Still, it's going to take a LOT of land to generate any significant amount of solar PV power. No 'free lunch' on the land-use aspect. At least with windfarms you can still farm the land around the towers.


AndyH said:
San Antonio's city-owned power company commissioned the city's first solar farm last November. I didn't expect to see the frameless panels!

http://www.cpsenergy.com/About_CPS_Energy/News_Features/News/110910_Blue_Wing_Dedication_NR.asp

14MW, 113 acres, 214,500 panels
 
All electricity generating technologies are capital intensive - high upfront costs. While solar and wind technologies have zero variable O&M and fuel costs, they do have relatively high fixed O&M costs, so the difference between upfront and ongoing costs as compared to conventional technologies is not so large as some people are making it out to be.
planet4ever said:
No, the two problems with solar are that all of the cost comes up front and that there are huge difference in its value depending on where you are.

The federal tax credits, which artificially decrease the cost of solar and wind, will be expiring, so it's appropriate to leave those out for an analysis of facilities that would come online in 2016. As for today, in the midwest proposed wind projects are dropping like flies as the developers begin to realize which or their projects are unable to be brought unline before December 31, 2012.
planet4ever said:
Note that the report assumes no state or federal tax credits or rebates, which produces a grossly inflated cost compared with the real situation today,

As long as the same figures are used for all technolgies it's a relatively fair comparison. I say "relatively" because in fact regulated utility-owned coal plants typically have a longer 40-45 year cost recovery period, which would lower their levelized capital cost. And again, the costs for solar and wind are not so much more front-loaded as you seem to think they are.
planet4ever said:
and compounds that (literally) by amortizing the cost over 30 years at a rate (7.4%) that is far higher than the rate you can get today. These conditions might or might not exist five years from now, which is the start-up date the report is looking at, but they certainly do not exist today, so greatly distort technologies with front-loaded costs.

No, that is not what "levelized" means. Levelized means that the upfront and ongoing costs are converted to an equivalent annual cost for the life of the facility. Further, there's a second table that factors in regional differences. To use your example, solar in Texas would use the cost figure from the Minimum column of that table.
planet4ever said:
As you said, Herm, the report is "levelized", which means it ignores all regional advantages. Solar in Texas has huge advantages over solar in New York or Oregon. The report attempts to "levelize" for solar by assuming 25% availability everywhere.

So, wrong.
planet4ever said:
So, the two problems with solar are that its characteristics cause this report to be highly biased against it, even though solar makes very good sense today in selected parts of the country, including where I live.

In which case, wind cost for your area should be taken from the Maximum column of the Regional Variation table.
planet4ever said:
Incidentally, wind makes no sense at all here, because we rarely have wind speeds above 10 mph, despite the report assuming 34% levelized availability for wind.
 
No arguement that local an regional conditions are important and can make all the difference in the world.

The important thing to remember is that, just as one should be cautious about applying general information to local situations, one should also be cautions about applying local information to the general situation.
AndyH said:
The 'facts on the ground' in San Antonio is that we do not have any type of tiered or time-of-use billing for electricity - and the average residential electricity rate for August was 9.2 cents per KWh. San Antonio has been bumping against air quality non-attainment for years. The city's found that their share of 10,000 MW of wind plus the utility-scale and distributed PV provides power exactly when we need it the most while supporting elimination of coal plants and allowing urban expansion without breaking the air quality ceiling.
 
Yodrak said:
Still, it's going to take a LOT of land to generate any significant amount of solar PV power. No 'free lunch' on the land-use aspect. At least with windfarms you can still farm the land around the towers.
That's exactly why it often makes more sense to use existing developed land (buildings, parking lots, etc.) for solar. It may have slightly higher infrastructure investment needed (like for parking lot structures) but that also comes with the benefit of shaded cars which in turn burn less fuel to cool themselves later.

Regarding the wind map above, it is convenient that the coastal opportunities map well with our population concentration on the coasts...
 
Yes, most definitely.
Electric4Me said:
That's exactly why it often makes more sense to use existing developed land (buildings, parking lots, etc.) for solar. It may have slightly higher infrastructure investment needed (like for parking lot structures) but that also comes with the benefit of shaded cars which in turn burn less fuel to cool themselves later.

Yes. Unortunately, much of those coastal areas, on the east coast anyway, are so densely populated that there can be few places to locate wind turbines - hence the interest in offshore locations where cost can increase dramatically. It also maps well with the NIMBY philosophy and where preserving 'the scenic view' sentiment is strong.

Newton's 3rd Law of Motion applies to society as well as to the world of Physics!
Electric4Me said:
Regarding the wind map above, it is convenient that the coastal opportunities map well with our population concentration on the coasts...
 
Yodrak said:
Still, it's going to take a LOT of land to generate any significant amount of solar PV power. No 'free lunch' on the land-use aspect. At least with windfarms you can still farm the land around the towers.
Thinking of Texas in particular (which is where this thread started), there is a lot of land available. A great deal of it is in cattle ranches, and I would think the cattle might do better, especially this hot dry summer, if the land was partially shaded. There are also huge tracts of barren land in Nevada, California, Arizona, and New Mexico which are not being used productively at all.

But you are right, there is no free lunch. In the cases I have listed one really big problem is getting the power transported to where it can be used.

Ray
 
Question for you - what would shading the land do for the vegetation that the cattle graze on, both in the hot, dry conditions of this summer and in normal conditions? Vegetation that naturally grows in open, unshaded areas might not do so good if shaded? On the other hand, if the stuff does grow well in the shade, then cattle would become almost essential to minimize the need to be constantly clearing the land under the panels?
planet4ever said:
Thinking of Texas in particular (which is where this thread started), there is a lot of land available. A great deal of it is in cattle ranches, and I would think the cattle might do better, especially this hot dry summer, if the land was partially shaded.

Great, as long as influential groups don't want to preserve the non-productive nature of those areas for whatever reasons.
planet4ever said:
There are also huge tracts of barren land in Nevada, California, Arizona, and New Mexico which are not being used productively at all.

Yup!
planet4ever said:
In the cases I have listed one really big problem is getting the power transported to where it can be used.

Good comments, thanks for the discussion.
 
Yodrak said:
AndyH said:
The 'facts on the ground' in San Antonio is that we do not have any type of tiered or time-of-use billing for electricity - and the average residential electricity rate for August was 9.2 cents per KWh. San Antonio has been bumping against air quality non-attainment for years. The city's found that their share of 10,000 MW of wind plus the utility-scale and distributed PV provides power exactly when we need it the most while supporting elimination of coal plants and allowing urban expansion without breaking the air quality ceiling.
No arguement that local an regional conditions are important and can make all the difference in the world.

The important thing to remember is that, just as one should be cautious about applying general information to local situations, one should also be cautions about applying local information to the general situation.
Isn't every construction project 'local' rather than 'general' anyway? ;)

Yodrak said:
The federal tax credits, which artificially decrease the cost of solar and wind, will be expiring, so it's appropriate to leave those out for an analysis of facilities that would come online in 2016.
I won't agree with this unless we also kill the significantly larger tax credits and incentives provided to the fossil fuel industry. Even without considering externalities, we'd have to expand renewable incentives just to get close to a level playing field...
 
So what if you won't agree with it? The reality is that, as things now stand, the renewables tax credits will expire and so cannot be expected to exist in 2016.

Also, as things stand now, the tax credits and incentives that the fossil fuel industry enjoys are not set to expire. It will take an act of congress to get rid of them.

I for one cannot predict whether or not the renewables incentives will be extended or the fossil fuel incentives will be terminated. But based on what exists today, the cost analysis is accurate. Whether or not AndyH will agree.

I don't necessarily disagree with you about what should be, but we have to recognize and deal with what is until such time as changes are made.

AndyH said:
Yodrak said:
The federal tax credits, which artificially decrease the cost of solar and wind, will be expiring, so it's appropriate to leave those out for an analysis of facilities that would come online in 2016.
I won't agree with this unless we also kill the significantly larger tax credits and incentives provided to the fossil fuel industry. Even without considering externalities, we'd have to expand renewable incentives just to get close to a level playing field...
 
Yodrak said:
So what if you won't agree with it? The reality is that, as things now stand, the renewables tax credits will expire and so cannot be expected to exist in 2016.

Also, as things stand now, the tax credits and incentives that the fossil fuel industry enjoys are not set to expire. It will take an act of congress to get rid of them.

I for one cannot predict whether or not the renewables incentives will be extended or the fossil fuel incentives will be terminated. But based on what exists today, the cost analysis is accurate. Whether or not AndyH will agree.

I don't necessarily disagree with you about what should be, but we have to recognize and deal with what is until such time as changes are made.

AndyH said:
Yodrak said:
The federal tax credits, which artificially decrease the cost of solar and wind, will be expiring, so it's appropriate to leave those out for an analysis of facilities that would come online in 2016.
I won't agree with this unless we also kill the significantly larger tax credits and incentives provided to the fossil fuel industry. Even without considering externalities, we'd have to expand renewable incentives just to get close to a level playing field...
All righty then - who licked the red of your sucker today? :lol:

I think your first logic problem is the suggestion that because some subsidies are expected to expire soon that the problem won't be corrected by 2016. Ditto for the other subsidies.

It appears that we are in full agreement in working with the cards on the table while also working to fix the stuff that's broken, even though we may not agree about exactly where the broken bits are found.

"It will take an act of congress to get rid of them." Sure. I expect the fossil fuel industry is feeling pretty secure that their lobbying efforts and ...green lubrication... are paying off during this time of severe dysfunction in D.C. Change is underway, though - the natives are getting a bit restless.
 
A 30 mile by 30 mile city has about 600,000 acres of land.
If even 1/1000 is usable rooftops 600 acres), that's about 70 MW of PV.

That's a start.

Out of the city's 900 square miles, dedicate a few to parks and lakes, and three to PV farms ... that's another 210 MW, for 280 MW total.

How much might such a city use during the daytime ... 300 MW?

Then, elimiate all "traffic" from the city by having electric public transport everywhere in town, subtract many streets and almost all parking lots, add green parks, trees, some nice living quarters in 3-level buildings near work locations, with more lakes, gardens, covered walkways and moving sidewalks ... no gas engines ... a nighttime power plant or power storage coupled with city wide hot water, use of grey water and under-surface irrigation with reclaimed water.
On and On ... to a totally different future. ???
 
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