Confirmed: Too much electricity in Pacific NW

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Reddy

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2011
Messages
1,544
Location
Pasco, WA
You've probably already heard that the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) wanted to shut down the wind turbines this spring because of the excess water in the Columbia River. They also requested that the nuclear plant start it's planned outage earlier than anticipated. Here are some links:

http://www.sustainablebusinessoregon.com/articles/2011/05/bpa-decision-may-prompt-wind-shutdown.html
http://www.columbian.com/news/2011/may/18/wind-power-companies-criticize-bpa-plan/
http://ecotrope.opb.org/2011/05/bpa-shuts-off-wind-power-to-make-way-for-hydro/
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2014756586_windpower13m.html
http://www.tri-cityherald.com/2011/05/21/1498195/energy-northwest-power-outage.html
http://energymanagement-systems.us/energy-nw-extends-power-outage/

Well, yesterday, while bicycling in a pretty stiff (20 mph) wind, I confirmed that the wind turbines outside of town (Kennewick) were all shut down. I don't know about the ones in the Columbia Gorge (Wallula, The Dalles and Hood River, etc.), but I would expect that they are shut down as well. Perhaps others can confirm.

I thought it was rather ironic that all of this extra electricity coincides with the period that we usually have some of the highest gasoline prices in preparation for the Memorial Day holiday and the start of the summer driving season. Won't it be great when we have more electric vehicles to soak up all this extra juice? Maybe that will even lower the price of gasoline. Hah, that will be the day!

Reddy...... and waiting for my Leaf before the snow flies.......
 
Not just too much electricity - but too much clean electricity. Infact EVs charging at night would be perfect since that is when the wind energy is used the least.

We also need to build electricity storage using pumped water (basically pump the water up when we generate excess electricity).
 
Reddy said:
I don't know about the ones in the Columbia Gorge (Wallula, The Dalles and Hood River, etc.), but I would expect that they are shut down as well. Perhaps others can confirm.


Drove through Ellensburg on Wednesday, and even though there was the usual spring wind, all of the wind turbines were shut down.

Looks like we need another tie line to southern California to power all those Leafs down there! :lol:
 
evnow said:
Not just too much electricity - but too much clean electricity. Infact EVs charging at night would be perfect since that is when the wind is most intense.

Wind is NOT most intense at night. The suns heating effect on the earth tends to make things move more.
 
TonyWilliams said:
Wind is NOT most intense at night. The suns heating effect on the earth tends to make things move more.
True. I should reword it - the wastage of wind energy at night is higher.
 
As a bicyclist, I can say emphatically that the surface winds tends to blow stronger about an hour after sunrise and decrease about an hour before sunset. Typically, we have more in the afternoon (except those very hot summer days when you just can't seem to get a break). That said, there are always weather fronts that blow through increasing or decreasing the wind. Also, there is a definite seasonality to wind, blowing strongest in the spring and fall. However, in the northern portion of the country, the cold north winds in winter definitely correspond to high energy useage.

I believe the "misconception" that wind blows stonger at night comes from some actual data on high altitude radio towers (say 1000 ft) in the midwest. However, lower level and surface winds definitely decrease at night. Typical wind turbines are typically at a couple hundred feet.

All these generalizations are great, but each site is different and then there is the inherent random nature of weather. I have read that in certain areas (e.g., California) where coastal mountains interact with the ocean, there are daily fluctuations as the air heats up and rises during the day, cools and sinks at night.

The point of my post was to point out that during this NW spring there is lots of hydro and wind (several GW of new wind capacity added in the last 5 yrs). To deal with this current excess we have four options: 1) consume more, 2) export, 3) shut down, or 4) storage. Adding electric cars during this "driving season" is only one option. Shutting down excess capacity is fairly normal in the industry, it's just a matter of choosing which ones. Personally, I say shutting down the pollution-producing generation makes the most sense. If this is planned, then these plants can do their maintenance, then restart in July when the wind and water tend to decrease.

Reddy
 
Hmmm, I just found this 7 day power history on the BPA website:
http://transmission.bpa.gov/Business/Operations/Wind/baltwg.aspx
A couple of interesting points: 1) current hydro generation is more than 2x demand. I guess that means they are exporting a lot of power to California. 2) wind power production seems to goes up and down roughly correlating with the daily demand. Hmmm, this seems to support my observation that wind increases during the day. 3) thermal generation is essentially zerol. BPA has said that shutting down the wind turbines will be after decreasing coal and natural gas generation. They've only shut down the wind turbines for a couple of days so far. So everyone is having to work together. I guess that's a good sign. All of this and the 1.1 GW nuclear plant is off-line for a couple of months. It looks like the NW currently has nearly 100% carbon free power. I wonder if this will be a seasonal occurence.

Reddy
 
My brother (who works for PSE) said that if the wind is blowing TOO hard, the wind turbines will shut themselves down and lock into place to avoid damage. They're designed to operate in a very narrow range of RPMs, and the blades will actually rotate with different wind conditions to keep them within that RPM range. If the wind becomes too strong, or fluctuates too much, they stop and lock into fixed position.

Not saying that's the reason right now, but it could be a potential reason why some areas would be turning and others wouldn't.

I bet CA is jealous of our extra energy. Why can't we somehow keep all our production up as high as possible and transfer that power to other areas where they could turn DOWN their coal plants? I'm obviously no expert. Probably technological reasons as well as political why that's not easily doable.
 
Reddy said:
wind power production seems to goes up and down roughly correlating with the daily demand. Hmmm, this seems to support my observation that wind increases during the day

I work in the industry as a dispatcher, and I will personally testify that trying to classify or guess the wind is impossible. If you take a yearly average of the wind it looks like an ok source of power, but ever single day is different. The easiest thing to remeber is this: When do we need the most power? When it is really, really hot. When it is really really hot is the wind blowing? Nope that is why it's really really hot.

Here is a chart from Alberta energy, (they post these weekly online: http://www.aeso.ca/gridoperations/14246.html )

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ynOO15XuG...AABVs/x-KBfgi4A9k/s1600-h/Alberta_09Apr12.jpg

The only thing you can glean from this graph is that the wind is volatile, because the next week would be completely different from this. Some days it blows all day, some days to match the load, and some days exact opposite of the load.

-Matt
 
Yes, the turbines do shutdown in very high winds (varies with model, but typically above 60 mph). Yes, they also feather the blades to keep RPMs and power as constant as they can. However, yesterday we had a "nice" breeze (probably about 25 -35 mph at the turbines) that would have produced maximum power (again varies with model, but they are typically rated at about 30 mph).

Yes, we are exporting power right now. Probably at least 6 GW based on the BPA website. Medium-term storage (weeks to months) is the biggest problem. In the NW, our peak demand is in the winter and peak production is spring. Other areas will be different (e.g., areas with lower heat demand or heat produced by gas/oil/coal). Many in NW heat with electricity. If only we could store for a few months through the summer and fall, then we could use it in the winter.

-Reddy
 
Lopton said:
Reddy said:
wind power production seems to goes up and down roughly correlating with the daily demand. Hmmm, this seems to support my observation that wind increases during the day

I work in the industry as a dispatcher, and I will personally testify that trying to classify or guess the wind is impossible. If you take a yearly average of the wind it looks like an ok source of power, but ever single day is different. The easiest thing to remeber is this: When do we need the most power? When it is really, really hot. When it is really really hot is the wind blowing? Nope that is why it's really really hot.

Here is a chart from Alberta energy, (they post these weekly online: http://www.aeso.ca/gridoperations/14246.html )

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ynOO15XuG...AABVs/x-KBfgi4A9k/s1600-h/Alberta_09Apr12.jpg

The only thing you can glean from this graph is that the wind is volatile, because the next week would be completely different from this. Some days it blows all day, some days to match the load, and some days exact opposite of the load.

-Matt

Thanks for the links and info. Yes, you are right, wind is variable. And so is demand. The amazing part is that you guys do a great job of leveling demand with production. And, of course, by definition, there always needs to be just a bit more production available (standing by) just in case demand increase. However, my point was that wind "roughly" correlates (certainly not r=0.9, but maybe 0.6 or 0.7) with demand. Yes, next week will be different.

As for guessing or classifying wind, I read about some research into putting RADAR/LIDAR/SONAR (?) on individual turbines, measuring/predicting windspeed just before it reaches the turbine and mathematically computing the expected MW output in real-time. Sum that over the entire turbine farm and you have real-time short-term predictions. Amazing what technology can do. This technology will certainly make integrating wind easier, especially if we eventually reach similar wind power penetration levels as Denmark, Germany and Spain.

-Reddy
 
The wind turbines installed in west Texas are often remotely shut-down. Not because there's not enough wind (there is) and not because the wind is outside of min/max limits, but because there's not enough transmission capacity to get the energy to the end users.

Yeah - like we need another reason to turn the turbines off. ;)

TonyWilliams and Reddy - Wind at night? It depends. ;)

http://www.ars.usda.gov/is/AR/archive/aug10/wind0810.htm
Vick found that in both the Texas Panhandle and California, there is almost an exact mismatch between wind-power production and peak energy demands over a 24-hour period. In these locations, at the tops of modern wind turbines, winds are lowest at midday, when power demands are greatest. In Texas, there is a seasonal mismatch as well: The winds are weakest in the summer, when power demands peak.

Brian Vick found that, in parts of Texas and California, an almost perfect match between wind-power production and peak energy demands can be obtained by combining wind power with solar power, and by proper storage of excess energy when power supply exceeds demand.

also:
http://www.texastribune.org/texas-energy/wind-energy/texas-wind-transmission-project-keeps-rolling-/
As a result, many wind turbines can't pump power into the grid when the wind blows hardest — typically at night.
 
AndyH said:
The wind turbines installed in west Texas are often remotely shut-down. Not because there's not enough wind (there is) and not because the wind is outside of min/max limits, but because there's not enough transmission capacity to get the energy to the end users.

Yeah - like we need another reason to turn the turbines off. ;)

TonyWilliams and Reddy - Wind at night? It depends. ;)

Just need to know how to properly address the resource http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkmvwCpcZlM
 
Reddy said:
Lopton said:
I work in the industry as a dispatcher, and I will personally testify that trying to classify or guess the wind is impossible. If you take a yearly average of the wind it looks like an ok source of power, but ever single day is different. The easiest thing to remeber is this: When do we need the most power? When it is really, really hot. When it is really really hot is the wind blowing? Nope that is why it's really really hot.

Here is a chart from Alberta energy, (they post these weekly online: http://www.aeso.ca/gridoperations/14246.html )
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_ynOO15XuG...AABVs/x-KBfgi4A9k/s1600-h/Alberta_09Apr12.jpg

The only thing you can glean from this graph is that the wind is volatile, because the next week would be completely different from this. Some days it blows all day, some days to match the load, and some days exact opposite of the load.
Thanks for the links and info. Yes, you are right, wind is variable. And so is demand. The amazing part is that you guys do a great job of leveling demand with production. And, of course, by definition, there always needs to be just a bit more production available (standing by) just in case demand increase. However, my point was that wind "roughly" correlates (certainly not r=0.9, but maybe 0.6 or 0.7) with demand. Yes, next week will be different.
With smart grid and today's smart EVSE, it's already possible to add or subtract EV charging to the grid to absorb power when the wind is blowing and reduce the load when electric production is strained, expensive, or using polluting, dirty peaker plants that meet the peak demand but aren't clean.

Of course, the EV / connected smart EVSE, is smart enough to be sufficiently charged when the EV driver needs it, so their can be tremendous benefit to the grid without inconveniencing the driver while providing reduced energy costs to the driver in return for the value of helping to manage the electrical grid more efficiently and at a lower cost.

Later, when EVs get V2G (Vehicle To Grid) capablilities, the EV can discharge a little to help the grid manage the fluctuations in electirictiy generation and demand. Finally, as EV batteries reach the end of their useful life in an EV, they still have plenty of capacity left to be used in other applications like providing electiricity storage for the electrical grid, telecommunications backup, backup batteries for solar installations, and many many more applications... Even when Lithium batteries only have 50% of their capacity remaining, they still store more energy by weight and volume than lead acid batteries. The aftermarket value of batteries and the end of their EV life, but the beginning of their secondary applications in grid management etc. are quite promising in reducing the overall costs of EVs and creating new applicatiosn that don't exist now since there isn't yet a supply of quality, high capacity, used lithium batteries. With millions of EVs on the road, well the future is in store! (That is future energy storage in batteries!)
 
Reddy said:
However, my point was that wind "roughly" correlates (certainly not r=0.9, but maybe 0.6 or 0.7) with demand. Yes, next week will be different.
I disagree - available wind generation correlates very poorly with electric demand. (PV correlates much, much better.)


Reddy said:
As for guessing or classifying wind, I read about some research into putting RADAR/LIDAR/SONAR (?) on individual turbines, measuring/predicting windspeed just before it reaches the turbine and mathematically computing the expected MW output in real-time. Sum that over the entire turbine farm and you have real-time short-term predictions. Amazing what technology can do. This technology will certainly make integrating wind easier, .
We've had real-time knowledge of what wind generation is for as long as we've had wind generation. I don't know what your definition of "short-term' is, but minutes is useless and hours not much better. In order to be of significant value in dispatching generation effectively we need good day ahead knowledge of what tomorrow's wind conditions are going to be.
 
We are certainly using some of that power in California. We have only one nuke running right now (1/2 of Diablo Canyon, and they were completely shut down last week). We need another DC line!! Bring it right into SDG&E please. ;)

From the "Daily Renewables Watch" created by the California ISO. Unfortunately, there is no further breakdown of "imports" other than magnitude and time.
http://www.caiso.com/market/Pages/ReportsBulletins/DailyRenewablesWatch.aspx
http://www.caiso.com/Pages/TodaysOutlook.aspx

Feb 27:

B5DN2.png


April 26:

sbTDV.png


I read this report pretty much every day. It's true that wind is very variable. However, there are trends. Here, most wind is intense early morning (12am-5am) and late evening (~8-12am). Some days the wind won't blow at all, and some it will blow all day. If you jump through the reports looking over a week or two, you can start to see the rough trends.

Jeremy
 
JeremyW said:
If you jump through the reports looking over a week or two, you can start to see the rough trends.

Rough trends and averaging over multiple days are what makes wind look pretty good, but that does nothing for the fact that electricity has to be produced, delivered, and consumed at the same moment in time and it doesn't give a care in the world about what the "average" or "trend" is. For every MW of power you get from the wind you need to have a MW of power from a reliable source to make up for it when the wind dies off suddenly. So if you install 600MW of wind turbines, you can't just get rid of the 600MW of fossil fuels because you need them when the wind changes. Because of the steep changes of wind you also have quickly ramp the fossil fuels up and down, on and off, which is when the plants produce the most pollution, and you put a lot more wear and tear on the units by moving them.

Please understand I am not stating these as a damnation from wind power, just trying to convey that it can get really expensive as a power source and can cause a lot of issues. These problems can and may be overcome, but I am not certain wind will ever really be a cheap source of power...

-Matt
 
Argh! I didn't realize I replied to an old thread. This year we have much less hydro then last year.

Lopton said:
Please understand I am not stating these as a damnation from wind power, just trying to convey that it can get really expensive as a power source and can cause a lot of issues. These problems can and may be overcome, but I am not certain wind will ever really be a cheap source of power...

Luckily here we have enough spinning reserves for the relatively small amount we do have, but you are completely right that it isn't scalable without some sort of storage or leveling. Which is why I'm very interested in vehicle to grid. Long term, its a pretty good solution to dispatchable power for on peak use, especially the 6-10 pm time frame. Further discussion is probably best left to another thread though. :)

Jeremy
 
Read this recent article:

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2012/04/ptg-20120430.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"With “Power-to-Gas”, the hydrogen produced during periods of excess renewable generation will be injected into the existing natural gas pipeline network, proportionally increasing the renewable energy content in natural gas pipelines for essentially the operating cost of the electrolyzer. Small quantities of hydrogen can be manageable in existing natural gas pipeline networks."

This is a brilliant idea, NG pipelines can handle up to 20% H2 mixed in without issues for either the pipeline or the end user, unfortunately NG is almost being given away now as the market is glutted but eventually it will make economic sense.

The charts previously posted are startling.. California could use a LOT of baseload nuclear power.
 
Herm said:
The charts previously posted are startling.. California could use a LOT of baseload nuclear power.

That's because they're mostly down right now. Here's May 2nd, 2011 for comparison:

btM8z.png


Yeah, we certainly could use more, but it seems like NIMBY is quite the force to be reckoned with. ;)

Jeremy
 
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