Stock-flow modeling suggests energy transition within transportation will take several decades

Using a stock-flow model based on data from Norway, a researcher at the country’s Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) has calculated the energy transition time lag for motor vehicles under a number of scenarios.

In his paper in the journal Energy Policy, Lasse Fridstrøm finds that in the most optimistic scenario for the energy transition affecting Norwegian registered vehicles, zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) would constitute 90% of the flow of new passenger cars in 2024; however, 90% penetration of ZEVs into the stock of passenger cars would not occur until 2039.

For light duty freight vehicles (LDVs), the corresponding milestones would be reached in 2026 and 2040, respectively, according to the same optimistic policy scenario. . . .

The model specifies 11 technologies: gasoline internal combustion engine (ICE); diesel ICE; battery electric vehicle (BEV); plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) with gasoline ICE; PHEV with diesel ICE; non-plug-in hybrid vehicle (HEV) with gasoline ICE; HEV with diesel ICE; hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV); natural gas ICE; kerosene ICE; and other.

The four different scenarios differ in terms of new vehicle acquisitions, but are identical in terms of transition rates—set in accordance with the average observed annual rates during 2010–2015.

• The trend scenario is essentially an extrapolation of the changes in market shares observed between 2010 and 2015.
  
  The ultra-low emission (ULE) scenario is designed to meet the Norwegian governments ambitious targets for the uptake of zero- and low-emission vehicles—by 2025, all new passenger cars and all new urban buses are to be BEVs or FCEVs. The same applies to new LDVs (cargo vans), to three quarters of all new interurban buses and coaches, and to half of all new HDVs (trucks and semitrailer tractors) by 2030.
  
  The low emission (LE) scenario sees zero-emission automobiles obtaining market dominance at least by 2030.
  
  The business-as-usual scenario posits new automobile sales changing only slowly from the market shares observed in 2016. . . .

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