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PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 9:12 am 
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Joined: Sat Apr 24, 2010 7:43 pm
Posts: 9229
Location: Olympia, WA
Delivery Date: 20 Dec 2013
Leaf Number: 423014
jlsoaz wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
90 percent that "need" another car besides the LEAF


Hi Dave:

I think I understood your basic point. I'm one of the people who needs another car besides the Leaf, no quotation marks necessary in my case.

My point was, and is,your claim of an exact number of "90%", a number which you keep repeating. Do you have any actual evidence for this exact figure of 90%?

Note that there is this one number of somewhere between 73 and 81% (19% having one EV and no ICV, and another 8% having two EVs or more and no ICV), which I get from this very small-sample non-scientific poll from this forum:

viewtopic.php?f=27&t=10461


what i actually said is "90+%" which is based on transportation study of individual trips from home where 93% are under 40 miles round trip. (done in 2007 i think...but the length of trips have been declining)

as far as personal unscientific poll, that is nearly impossible to quantify. for example;

my in-laws drive a F-150 and a Kia Soul. both have round trip commutes under 10 miles. so the only time they would need more mileage is when they go visiting. they rarely shop out of town and since their Son moved back to Olympia from Salem, OR about the only time they leave town is to go camping... FYI; we frequently join them and have only taken the Prius one time in the past 2 years so most of their camping journeys maybe be beyond the 50 mile RT parameters but is still doable by the LEAF. here is a pix from Ocean Shores WA a 72 mile one way trip. not applicable to the discussion but...

Image


Other camping destinations; Hoodsport; 46 miles RT
Port Townsend; 52 miles RT, etc you get the picture. so all very reachable and none of these places are "compromises." i think many people are realizing that good places to go are not always necessarily a long way off.

for anyone I know well, its pretty much the same. I drive all over as part of my job and I have a close friend who does the same as part of his. I know a half dozen people who work several miles from home but none drive. they go from their home to the a park and ride including me about 75% of the time. this also includes two people who have only started van pooling this year. Both absolutely love it and lament they did not do it sooner.

but keep in mind; for this household combo to work, only one of the two have to have a driving need under 50 miles for the LEAF to work. Right now, the Prius gets driven frequently because there are two of us and it needs to be driven otherwise it will have problems (12 volt battery problems are way too common these days. its funny that auto manufacturers put all these power needs onto the 12 volt battery without any regard to long term viability)

but my scientific poll showed several months where 100% of trips were under 40 miles. had my sister who is unique in that her SO's kids live 40 miles away so they take turns either picking them up 40 miles away or meeting "halfway" (which is about 30 miles away...not sure how that works out to half...) and even with those special circumstances, she is just now getting below 90% but only because of the holidays and additional trips they dont normally make.

so ya, i stick by my statement "90+%"

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44,598 miles! on my 2011 LEAF (retired) 2013 LEAF; 5254.1 miles. Ah; 63.89-64.23, Hx; 98.01-99.46%. @70% estimate; 115,063 miles
Mar 2014 Drive Stats. Corolla; 854.7 miles, $74.00, LEAF; 1324.6 miles $28.54
My Blog; http://daveinolywa.blogspot.com


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 1:44 pm 
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Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Posts: 404
Location: Santa Cruz County, AZ 85648 USA
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
walterbays wrote:
I seem to remember marketing materials Nissan had a couple of years ago that were kind of the converse of the idea in this thread. It put a whole different spin on "range anxiety." It was something like, how far can you go on $20 (or $1, or $100).

E.g., $20 spent at a gas station then would buy 5 gallons of gas which would take your 12 MPG SUV 60 miles, or your Prius 250 miles. The same $20 spent on electricity would buy 167 kWh which would take your LEAF 667 miles.

Too bad they never really advertised it widely.


Interesting.

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josh@jlaz.com
Rio Rico, AZ
2012-10-10: Lease 2012 SL
2013-08-16: 1 Bar Lost, 4918 miles
EVSE: C. Creek 7.2kW
Solar: 2.7 kW grid-tied + hot water
Insurance: Farmers ~$1,050/yr


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 5:39 pm 
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Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Posts: 404
Location: Santa Cruz County, AZ 85648 USA
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
cwerdna wrote:
Besides the suggestion re: ads, perhaps Nissan should put something into the car similar to what the Prius c has where you can put in the avg. cost of fuel along w/the mpg your previous/other car gets.

When you shut off the Prius c, it can tell you how much you saved vs. the other car (and/or I think it can tell you the trip cost).

To see what I'm talking about, see http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FngoNwMDQWY from 0:46 to 1:15, then 1:57 to the end.


I watched the video and it does seem like an interesting idea. There seem to be a lot of cool-idea information capabilities that can be bundled into cars, especially with plug-in cars, where there are new and different information focuses. I can't say I'd use it for sure since I personally seem to use only a small percent of the information points they build into cars/computers/phones/etc., but I might.

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josh@jlaz.com
Rio Rico, AZ
2012-10-10: Lease 2012 SL
2013-08-16: 1 Bar Lost, 4918 miles
EVSE: C. Creek 7.2kW
Solar: 2.7 kW grid-tied + hot water
Insurance: Farmers ~$1,050/yr


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 25, 2012 6:20 pm 
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Joined: Sun Jul 08, 2012 12:57 pm
Posts: 404
Location: Santa Cruz County, AZ 85648 USA
Delivery Date: 10 Oct 2012
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
jlsoaz wrote:
DaveinOlyWA wrote:
90 percent that "need" another car besides the LEAF

[...]My point was, and is,your claim of an exact number of "90%", a number which you keep repeating. Do you have any actual evidence for this exact figure of 90%?

Note that there is this one number of somewhere between 73 and 81% (19% having one EV and no ICV, and another 8% having two EVs or more and no ICV), which I get from this very small-sample non-scientific poll from this forum:

viewtopic.php?f=27&t=10461


what i actually said is "90+%" which is based on transportation study of individual trips from home where 93% are under 40 miles round trip. (done in 2007 i think...but the length of trips have been declining)

as far as personal unscientific poll, that is nearly impossible to quantify. for example;

[...]
but my scientific poll showed several months where 100% of trips were under 40 miles. had my sister who is unique in that her SO's kids live 40 miles away so they take turns either picking them up 40 miles away or meeting "halfway" (which is about 30 miles away...not sure how that works out to half...) and even with those special circumstances, she is just now getting below 90% but only because of the holidays and additional trips they dont normally make.

so ya, i stick by my statement "90+%"


Hi Dave:

The "transportation study" you mention - is this just you performing some sort of research? Or is there a formal study somewhere you are trying to cite? Can you provide a link? I'm not sure what can be made of the personal annecdotes you run through, but, in any event, I'm not arguing the point that "a lot" of people need a gasoline or diesel vehicle as a second car. I have yet to see a defensible statement of exact percent of BEV buyers who need a gasoline or diesel vehicle to supplement the BEV.

I do like that the poll we have here in the forum in itself suggests that one avenue to research would be not so much what potential BEV drivers claim, or what researchers claim, but rather what actual drivers choose. To give results some defensibility, we would need a more legitimate sampling procedure and study. It might be interesting if PIA or others were to look into this and shed some light on it, but maybe that has already been done.

Getting back to the point of the thread (my suggestion for marketing, zeroing in on the $ fuel savings), I don't think it's important to settle the exact percent, but instead I can simply acknowledge that the point is taken as a very good point that in many cases, a household will not be able to have only a BEV but may still need a HCV (hydrocarbon fueled vehicle, I think I'll try that acronym for awhile) for some of its miles, and so Leaf marketing should take this into account. Within the specifics of the video ad envisioned here, a way to do that might be to present a two-vehicle household and a running tally over the course of the commercial as to fuel dollars spent, and then on the other side of the screen, substitute out one of the gasoline vehicles for a Leaf and show that tally and see how things shape up.

This thread has also got me to thinking about tie-ins to other suggestions that have been made to Nissan as to trying to faciliate Leaf driver access to HCV for those times when the vehicles are needed. For example, there might be a car-sharing service that might offer access, or some sort of special deal that a Leaf driver could have with the local Nissan dealership for occassional lease or rental, or perhaps an agreement with an established car rental company. Perhaps a negative could be turned somewhat into a positive where, if Nissan strikes the right chord, it could help Leaf drivers have access to a well-maintained high-mileage Nissan HCV for certain trips, while maintaining the access to the Leaf for other trips.

I'm also trying to figure out if we can make progress on insurance costs. In some cases where there is a one-driver one-car HCV household (like mine) and there is the acquisition of a Leaf, but the retaining of the HCV, then shouldn't insurance adjust not only for the addition of a second car, but the spreading of miles between the two cars? Maybe it already does (have to contact my insurance agent to verify # of annual miles is lowered on my HCV, and see if this saves me money).

_________________
josh@jlaz.com
Rio Rico, AZ
2012-10-10: Lease 2012 SL
2013-08-16: 1 Bar Lost, 4918 miles
EVSE: C. Creek 7.2kW
Solar: 2.7 kW grid-tied + hot water
Insurance: Farmers ~$1,050/yr


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