GRA wrote:Toyota hasn't dragged their feet on batteries, they've put enormous resources into developing solid-state batteries, which they feel have the necessary characteristics to make mass-market BEVs mainstream without gov't subsidies and mandates. I tend to agree.
The way you get to mass market BEV is by building a lot of them. Note that Tesla improved the EPA range of the refreshed model S by 10%. That is how costs come down for all of the components. Batteries are improving rapidly in cost and at least for Tesla retaining capacity longer. I know you don't believe this, but my six year old model S 85 kwh has almost 95% of its original capacity.
You get to mass market by building and selling
a lot of something; if the market isn't there, building them just leaves you with a lot of unsold inventory. Or, as is the case now, you rely on subsidies and mandates to bribe/coerce people into buying that product. Toyota believes that batteries aren't where they need to be for BEVs to stand on their own yet for universal service with the necessary durability, and I agree, although they have reached the point where they are well-suited (if still too expensive) for local use, and can handle shorter (weekend) road trips okay.
I have no problem believing your claims about the battery in your S85, but unless my conditions, usage and battery are identical to yours, it's purely anecdotal. Here's a graph showing scatter; note that this is from Europe, I believe mainly owners in the Netherlands, and their climate and terrain is hardly representative of the ones any BEV I'd have would experience, as I'm frequently climbing and descending thousands of feet at high speed in hot and cold temps, not to mention driving across extremely hot deserts, and any BEV battery I'd have would experience a low cycle life due to only occasional use, but long calendar life: https://images.app.goo.gl/cWr6PqyRQwLuBMoN9
As with previous degradation charts this is all self-reported, which adds its own biases. Only the company has access to all battery data, including pack replacements, repairs etc.
Here's another example, at an extreme of cycle life and used SoC range:
Here’s how a Tesla Model S holds up after 400,000 miles in 3 years
Now, my BEV wouldn't see usage like that in such a short period of time: I'm more concerned with calendar life than cycle life, although being forced to limit my usable SoC range for longevity makes the car's real-world range far less than the EPA number, and of course the oldest Model S battery is just reaching the age of seven now. We don't know exactly what will happen by the time it reaches the same age (16) my ICE is now, but we know it will continue to degrade at some unknown rate: accelerated tests are better than nothing, but they don't replicate real-world calendar degradation en masse by the general public.