evnow
Well-known member
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099596_electric-cars-will-evolve-rapidly-by-2018-split-into-segments-by-price
The real question is - where does Model 3 belong ?
The real question is - where does Model 3 belong ?
Electric Cars Will Evolve Rapidly By 2018, Split Into Segments By Price
- Thread starter evnow
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TonyWilliams
Well-known member
evnow said:
So, exactly what we have today?
I will suggest that the future, like all cars, will have EVs in all price ranges, and all model and capabilities.
That includes low priced cars ($15k) with swappable batteries for urban areas, relatively short range, and extremely low cost to buy and operate.
My only concern on the Model 3 is that the resource limitations have caused Tesla to understandably slip in the big plan. But if they can get the Model 3 out at the same timeframe as say the Bolt I think there is no comparison. I would guess from a refinement viewpoint and having a great deal more expertise in pure BEVs the Model 3 will be much more compelling.evnow said:
And I say this even as someone who personally doesn't find Model S and X compelling. I'd pick Tesla over Chevy any day. I think only true competition would come IF and WHEN BMW or Audi makes a similar product at similar price. And nothing like that is anywhere on the horizon.
evnow
Well-known member
Today we have 2 cars (i3 BEV sales are similar to that of compliance cars). Looks like John is saying we'll have 2 clear segments by 2018. Rest of what you are saying will take another decade to happen.TonyWilliams said:
I find that somewhat of a simplification. I think we'll have 3 segments, with people still cross shopping.
- One around $30k (Leaf, Bolt etc)
- Second around $45k (Model 3, i3)
- Third above $70k (S,X etc)
Now, if Model 3 does hit $35k - and the base model is a compelling car in itself without having to spend $10k on upgrades, Leaf 2 & Bolt will be in trouble.
But, I think, Model 3 base will be too bare for anyone to actually buy. This would let Leaf 2 and others to flourish at the lower price point.
TonyWilliams
Well-known member
RonDawg said:
It's per auto manufacturer for CARB-ZEV credit:
For model years 2015 and beyond, both LVM and Intermediate Vehicle Manufacturers (IVM) must comply with CARB-ZEV:
BMW - i3, including gasoline hybrid version dubbed "REx"
Fiat/Chrysler - 500e (CEO of Fiat famously said, "Don't buy my car"), hydrogen
Ford - Focus EV, hydrogen by 2018 or more capable EV, like GM?
General Motors - Spark EV, future Sonic platform Bolt EV, possibly hydrogen by 2018-2020
Honda - absolutley hydrogen, may hedge bets with an EV
Hyundai - absolutley hydrogen, but may hedge bets with an EV
Kia - Soul EV, other EVs in the future
Mazda - Demio EV, plus hydrogen car with Toyota technology
Daimler/Mercedes - B-Class ED, Smart ED, hydrogen by 2018, Tesla Model S like car by 2020 called eLux
Nissan - LEAF, eNV-2000, probably other future EVs (perhaps hydrogen in Japan, though)
Toyota - absolutely hydrogen only in USA / Europe / Japan
Volkswagen - eGolf, hydrogen by 2018?, 310 mile Audi Q6 e-tron SUV, and 265 mile Porsche sedan for 2017/2018 "Tesla Model S competitor"
Auto manufacturers that are NOT subject to CARB-ZEV due to their small sales in California. These additional manufacturers are required to comply with the ZEV requirements, but would be allowed to meet their obligation with Plug-In Hybrids (PHEV):
Tesla - Roadster, Model S, Model X, Model 3 (all EV)
Mitsubishi - iMiev (EV) and Outlander Plug-in hybrid
Fuji Heavy Industry (Subaru) - ?
Jaguar Land Rover - EV
Volvo - plug-in hybrid CUV
Aston Martin Lagonda - DBX EV
Update, May 18, 2015
The California Air Resources Board rejected a plea from Jaguar Land Rover, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Subaru and Volvo to be exempted from the ZEV mandate. They had argued that their small r&d budgets will keep them from developing and selling electrified cars as easily as full-line automakers such as Ford, General Motors and Nissan, which already must sell ZEVs.
Automakers with less than $40 billion in annual global revenue -- which includes Jaguar Land Rover, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Subaru and Volvo -- now will have the option to sell plug-in hybrids only to earn "credits" toward compliance, rather than being forced to sell some all-electric or hydrogen cars. If they don't sell enough, they'll still need to buy credits from companies such as Tesla Motors Inc. that sell electric cars in large numbers. Tesla banked $51 million in the first quarter from selling ZEV credits to other automakers.
RonDawg said:
Tangentially Audi has announced two all electric SUVs, Q6 and Q8, but doesn't look like either will hit market before 2018. I believe german auto makes are turning to more electric/battery powered cars not just for compliance issues, but also for performance and/or economy. Audio is rolling out more and more PHEV variants across its line (can't wait for an A5 based version) and BMW seems to be looking at the 5 series variant of an i8 kind of idea.
But all these will be priced in the Model S/X range, not the Model 3.
evnow
Well-known member
PHEVs being rolled out are more for EU compliance than CA.
TonyWilliams
Well-known member
evnow said:
California is targeting ZERO EMISSION (except for water emitted by hydrogen cars, and CO, CO2, etc, emitted by the lone gasoline car getting ZEV status, the BMS i3).
Europe has congestion charges that hybrids can become exempt from.
evnow
Well-known member
EU is also moving towards lower emission averages that force PHEVs.TonyWilliams said:
http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?rssid=32483
TonyWilliams said:
European countries tend to have vehicle rego/sales tax/impost that is related to some emissions/fuel economy metric, so for expensive vehicles, the reduction in tax due to plugin tech's CO2 reduction offsets the increased production cost.
The gorilla in the room is what will Chinese cities do? rumors are they are looking at making 50km EV only range a must have for certain large districts. What cycle? hints so far is that BYD increased its battery size from 10kWh to 13kWh so to comfortably pass the expected Chinese norms.
Personally my expectation is that a 12kWh battery in a Outlander PHEV will be just below whats needs, but the same 12kWh battery in an Outlander ASX PHEV will be just above whats needed. Since VW group makes 1/2 their profits from China, they have no choice but to align with Chinese expectations, California is fluff, China is the market.
evnow
Well-known member
True - a lot of western (esp. US) press simply doesn't understand the new reality of being the second largest auto market.ydnas7 said:
BTW, I can see this trend catching on in a lot of cities in Europe, India etc - mainly for nasty pollution reasons, rather than CO2.
evnow said:
In many ways the US generally was the 2nd largest market, the combined European market historically was larger than the USA market. That changed with the economic malaise in EU, who have dropped from 1st to 3rd place behind both USA and China.
What I don't think the US press or citizens understand is the lack of overlap between their market and the global norm. Globally the LEAF is a very very normal looking car, global top sellers are Toyota Corolla hatch, VW golf (hatch), Ford Focus (hatch), Nissan Pulsar (hatch) etc etc etc. In many many parts of the world, the Nissan LEAF really blends in, very undistinctive actually, hatchs generally are. Countries with greater risk of theft tend more to do sedans, space permitting. US with open tray trucks is the distinctive of a large and safe country.
Thanks for the info Tony.
Regarding Europe, my understanding is that the EU is implementing/has implemented a CAFE-like system, but that is emission-based rather than fuel-economy-based, and that is pushing development of PHEVs there, as well as encouraging if not mandating stop/start technology.
For quite some time, many European cities (most recently, Paris) have a system in place which bans vehicles from city centers that they feel are excessively polluting. In order to drive into the centers of many German cities, your car has to display an "Umwelt" sticker on it with a color code that corresponds to its level of pollution certification. Local authorities can restrict car access starting with the most polluting vehicles first. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-emission_zone#Germany
Regarding Europe, my understanding is that the EU is implementing/has implemented a CAFE-like system, but that is emission-based rather than fuel-economy-based, and that is pushing development of PHEVs there, as well as encouraging if not mandating stop/start technology.
For quite some time, many European cities (most recently, Paris) have a system in place which bans vehicles from city centers that they feel are excessively polluting. In order to drive into the centers of many German cities, your car has to display an "Umwelt" sticker on it with a color code that corresponds to its level of pollution certification. Local authorities can restrict car access starting with the most polluting vehicles first. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low-emission_zone#Germany
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