edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:42 pm

lpickup wrote:
edatoakrun wrote:Here is a summary of what is known about model three production levels and their significance, worth reading:
...


No! This is just another Tesla short picking up a non-story (or at the very least a very speculative one), treating it as gospel truth...

No, he did not.

In fact he specifically stated that he did not verify Niedermeyer's reporting.

...I have not independently attempted to verify the matters reported by Niedermeyer. I will be interested to learn whether Tesla responds either to the Niedermeyer article or to any other reporters who may inquire about it...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/411210 ... -tesla-yet

Making false statements is no way to promote your opinions.

The cartoon was funny, but off-topic...

Back to the subject, from the same comment:

...Why It Matters

The slow rollout of the Model 3 matters in several important ways.

Every quarter of delay means Tesla will be digging the hole deeper with hundreds of millions of dollars in operating losses (as a reminder, CoverDrive’s estimate for Q3 is a GAAP loss of $498 million).

News of further delays imperils Tesla Model 3 refundable deposits. The deposits are important to Tesla not merely as interest-free loans, but as part of the narrative about the 450,000-plus people line up, ready to put down cold hard cash on a Model 3.

If the Niedermeyer story about the Michigan body panel line is accurate, it would mean that Tesla has been withholding material information from investors, and could undermine investor trust in the firm...
Last edited by edatoakrun on Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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hyperionmark
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 06, 2017 12:48 pm

It's so weird how rabid the anti-Tesla people are on this forum. I also frequent PriusChat and we get a few but nothing like here, which is weird considering this is already a pro-EV forum. I'm guessing a lot of the people against Tesla on this forum either have a strong case of choice-supportive bias (in regards to their Leaf purchase) or see it as a wealthy person's car and can't participate themselves.

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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:32 pm

hyperionmark wrote:<span>It's so weird how rabid the anti-Tesla people are on this forum
I think it's just a small number of anti-T people, but who happen to be very vocal.
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lorenfb
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:37 pm

webb14leafs wrote:
Furthermore, now with the M3, they'll probably lose more money as the M3 will cannibalize sales of the MS.
Many new Tesla buyers will see little value in an MS for the additional cost versus a M3 and will buy the M3
resulting in less GP per vehicle for Tesla. Yes, the M3 is smaller but most who buy the MS rarely buy the
MS as a family vehicle like a CUV and are older buyers. Besides, why buy a MS with about the same range
and carry another 500+ lbs with a MS. Also, the M3 can be ordered with many of the same features as a MS.


This point is a very interesting conversation. I thought the same thing, but someone pointed out that it has been a successfull model for other luxury car manufacturers and shows that rich people will buy anything as long as it's expensive.

It seems logical that the 5-series BMW would cannibalize the 7-series, and the 3 the 5, but they don't. Each model represents a slight bump in trim-level, size and horsepower. Also, each one can be optioned out in a way that makes it more expensive than the next level base model. Makes no sense to me, but apparently it does to people who buy such cars.

Anyway, not saying you're off base at all - we'll have to see how it plays out - but there's a precedent for it succeeding.


Furthermore, trying to differentiate between the M3 & MS is not simply analogous to BMW with there models
(series 7/5/3) as one might initially think for Tesla. Both Tesla models can have:

1. dual motors (BMW offers different ICEs & 4 wheel drive per model)
2. air suspension (not offered on low end BMW models)
3. very similar ranges
4. very similar driving modes, e.g. autopilot, and upgradeable
5. pano roofs
6. basically the same display (inst panel) software, although smaller display (some may prefer) for M3

Many might find the MS body design old and out of style, given the newer look of the M3, e.g. similar to the new
iPhone 8/X (minor differences for some to the 7) and why some always prefer the newer one, besides it's cheaper.
It's always more impressive when you can park the latest Tesla next to your neighbor's old looking MS.

Come to think of it, the M3 is basically a replacement to most for the MS at a lower price!
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sparky
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 06, 2017 2:30 pm

IMO the Neidermeyer article does what any good click-baity story does: pick a hot commodity and exploit the anxiety around it. Facts are optional / avoided.

I think it's reasonable to assume that :

1) "production hell" is real for Tesla right now
2) They're in it until Model 3 ramps up to >500 cars / week; after which the growth should be significant.
3) None of us early non-employee reservations holders will see our cars until December at the earliest, despite my Tesla page still showing Oct-Dec delivery.
4) Delays are expected but costly as noted. Tesla certainly is familiar with this situation and will weather it.
5) These sorts of articles will feed on each other in the absence of positive production news despite positive Tesla news elsewhere.
6) In a year's time, we'll see that Tesla has been gaining experience; Model X ramp was faster than Model S and Model 3 will be faster than Model X.
7) Drama regarding all things Tesla will continue on the internet.

hyperionmark
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 06, 2017 3:10 pm

lorenfb wrote:
webb14leafs wrote:
Furthermore, now with the M3, they'll probably lose more money as the M3 will cannibalize sales of the MS.
Many new Tesla buyers will see little value in an MS for the additional cost versus a M3 and will buy the M3
resulting in less GP per vehicle for Tesla. Yes, the M3 is smaller but most who buy the MS rarely buy the
MS as a family vehicle like a CUV and are older buyers. Besides, why buy a MS with about the same range
and carry another 500+ lbs with a MS. Also, the M3 can be ordered with many of the same features as a MS.


This point is a very interesting conversation. I thought the same thing, but someone pointed out that it has been a successfull model for other luxury car manufacturers and shows that rich people will buy anything as long as it's expensive.

It seems logical that the 5-series BMW would cannibalize the 7-series, and the 3 the 5, but they don't. Each model represents a slight bump in trim-level, size and horsepower. Also, each one can be optioned out in a way that makes it more expensive than the next level base model. Makes no sense to me, but apparently it does to people who buy such cars.

Anyway, not saying you're off base at all - we'll have to see how it plays out - but there's a precedent for it succeeding.


Furthermore, trying to differentiate between the M3 & MS is not simply analogous to BMW with there models
(series 7/5/3) as one might initially think for Tesla. Both Tesla models can have:

1. dual motors (BMW offers different ICEs & 4 wheel drive per model)
2. air suspension (not offered on low end BMW models)
3. very similar ranges
4. very similar driving modes, e.g. autopilot, and upgradeable
5. pano roofs
6. basically the same display (inst panel) software, although smaller display (some may prefer) for M3

Many might find the MS body design old and out of style, given the newer look of the M3, e.g. similar to the new
iPhone 8/X (minor differences for some to the 7) and why some always prefer the newer one, besides it's cheaper.
It's always more impressive when you can park the latest Tesla next to your neighbor's old looking MS.

Come to think of it, the M3 is basically a replacement to most for the MS at a lower price!

Another clueless post.

edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:34 pm

Very good (but fairly long) summary of todays kerfuffle over what the meaning of "production" is, at Jalopnik.

Tesla Model 3 Production Is Jammed Up Because Parts Are Being Handmade: Report (UPDATED)

This week, Tesla reported only making 260 Model 3s since launching production of the all-electric sedan in July—roughly 80 percent under a promised goal of 1,500 in that span. On Friday, the Wall Street Journal reported the source of the issue: major portions of the car were still being banged out by hand as recent as September.

Citing unnamed people familiar with the matter, the WSJ said that Tesla’s advanced production line still wasn’t fully ready as of a few weeks ago. The newspaper reported that Tesla factory workers have been piecing together parts of the cars by hand, while the machinery to design the car is completed. It’s a move that is extremely unusual for the mass-market, volume-seller car the Model 3 is meant to be.

Tesla didn’t address the WSJ’s questions for the story, instead slamming the newspaper as a slanted outlet that “has relentlessly attacked Tesla with misleading articles that, with few exceptions, push or exceed the boundaries of journalistic integrity.”

What’s interesting is that WSJ isn’t the only one that has picked up these threads during the week. On Thursday, the automotive blog Daily Kanban reported that a Model 3 “pilot” body line had yet to be completed. The story cites an anonymous source who claims that two Michigan-based suppliers—Five Lakes Automation and Thai Summit America—are working on the project...

When pressed by a Jalopnik reporter multiple times this week about the handmade parts issue, a Tesla spokesperson vehemently denied this was the case.

Bits and pieces started to trickle out after a statement on Monday from Tesla, which said the “vast majority of manufacturing subsystems” at its car plant in California and the Nevada Gigafactory are “able to operate a high rate, but admitted that “a handful have taken longer to activate than expected.”...

Just after Model 3 production launched, Tesla said it was “confident we can produce just over 1,500 vehicles in Q3.” That hasn’t happened, and the company only mustered a vague explanation this week about why it fell short...

Update, 6:30 p.m.: A Tesla spokesperson sent along a statement to Jalopnik that reiterates some of the earlier points in the company’s comment to the WSJ.

This reporting is fundamentally wrong and misleading. We are still in the beginning of our production ramp, but every Model 3 is being built on the Model 3 production line, which is fully installed, powered on, producing vehicles, and increasing in automation every day. However, every vehicle manufacturing line in the world has both manual and automated processes, including the Model S and Model X line today. Contrary to the Journal’s reporting, this is not some revelation...

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-model-3-prod ... socialflow
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edatoakrun
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 06, 2017 6:53 pm

Yes, model three production began in July, and the ~30 cars delivered that month were production models.

Except for their battery packs, seats, headlights, taillights, and "several other smaller components"...

Tesla replaces Model 3 headlights, battery, seats, and more while going through ‘production hell’

...employees and company insiders are the ones taking delivery of early production vehicles. Those vehicles are subject to components changes as Tesla tunes its manufacturing processes for Model 3 and add more production parts.

Sources familiar with those changes confirmed to Electrek that they had to make over a half dozen of them. In most cases, the vehicles are still performing normally, but Tesla wants to replace a now “prototype” part with a production one or it has improved on a production part through the deployment of the Model 3 manufacturing lines.

For example, Tesla has already replaced the Model 3 front and passenger seats as well as the battery packs from the vehicles made in July.

More recently, Tesla changed the Model 3’s headlight and tail lights for vehicles made in August. The headlights were replaced with an “upgraded version”, while the first version of the tail lights were susceptible to condensation – something that was visible in some Model 3 production candidates spotted in the wild earlier this year.

Tesla also had to replace several other smaller components...

https://electrek.co/2017/10/06/tesla-mo ... ery-seats/
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palmermd
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:11 pm

edatoakrun wrote:Yes, model three production began in July, and the ~30 cars delivered that month were production models.

Except for their battery packs, seats, headlights, taillights, and "several other smaller components"...


I'm not sure why you are so worked up over this and why your posting to see if you can get us worked up about it. It just does not seem to matter to most of us. They are delivering cars to their employees as they get the production line up and running.

If this continues after they begin non employee vehicles, I'd be a bit more concerned. I'm sure every one of the cars delivered, to the employees, come with an understanding that there will be post delivery updates. As long as both parties understand and agree to this its not a big deal.
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Re: Official Tesla Model 3 thread

Fri Oct 06, 2017 8:26 pm

It does seem like the whole thing is a good 90 days behind where I thought it was, not like they were really ready to start volume production this quarter.
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