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lorenfb said:
... Even based on the minor availability of charging stations even with the SCs, the typical ICEV
consumer still perceives the abundance of gas stations and a "six minute recharge" as the preference. This not only limits Tesla growth
but also the overall BEV market. ...

That is an interesting supposition.
I would suggest that the percentage of consumers believing that an EV wouldn’t work for them is not static.
As a matter of fact, I would say that percentage is decreasing every year. And that it will decrease at a greater and greater rate as more people get to see and experience EVs.
 
lorenfb said:
Some still fail to see the "forest vs the trees"! Even based on the minor availability of charging stations even with the SCs, the typical ICEV
consumer still perceives the abundance of gas stations and a "six minute recharge" as the preference. This not only limits Tesla growth
but also the overall BEV market. A perfect example is the sales of the Bolt, it's overall a very good BEV with a range that should fit most
consumer needs, but yet it hasn't sold well. The M3 availability in the low end of the BEV market won't change this in the near term.

What the typical consumer doesn't realize (nor did I before getting an EV) is the magnitude of the convenience of home charging. If 95 percent of your miles can be accomplished by home charging you're still far ahead in convenience even if the occasional road trip involves a few 30-45 minute stops vs. the proverbial "5 minute fill-up". In actuality, stopping for gas always seemed to put me at least 15 minutes behind schedule and that's if everything went perfectly.

I realize the average consumer doesn't think that way, but it's something that could be emphasized in EV advertising. One of the joys of having an EV is waking to a "full tank" and never having to pull out of the driveway only to glance at the dash and realize you MUST make a fuel stop and don't have the time.
 
lorenfb said:
Some still fail to see the "forest vs the trees"! Even based on the minor availability of charging stations even with the SCs, the typical ICEV
consumer still perceives the abundance of gas stations and a "six minute recharge" as the preference. This not only limits Tesla growth
but also the overall BEV market. A perfect example is the sales of the Bolt, it's overall a very good BEV with a range that should fit most
consumer needs, but yet it hasn't sold well. The M3 availability in the low end of the BEV market won't change this in the near term.

This confuses a lot of issues.

First, you don't need to convince 100% of the customers to grow the market. You just need 5 to 10%. Rest will follow.

Second, most families that can afford a Tesla have multiple cars. If they perceive EV charging on long distance as inconvenient, they'll use the ICE.

You can't compare a Chevy Bolt with a Model 3. Bolt has zero hype (just talked to a Chrysler salesman who hadn't even heard about Bolt). It started with very high prices (on leases) and is competing with Model 3. Most people I know who booked a Model 3 won't be caught dead driving a Chevy.
 
Nubo said:
lorenfb said:
Some still fail to see the "forest vs the trees"! Even based on the minor availability of charging stations even with the SCs, the typical ICEV
consumer still perceives the abundance of gas stations and a "six minute recharge" as the preference. This not only limits Tesla growth
but also the overall BEV market. A perfect example is the sales of the Bolt, it's overall a very good BEV with a range that should fit most
consumer needs, but yet it hasn't sold well. The M3 availability in the low end of the BEV market won't change this in the near term.

What the typical consumer doesn't realize (nor did I before getting an EV) is the magnitude of the convenience of home charging. If 95 percent of your miles can be accomplished by home charging you're still far ahead in convenience even if the occasional road trip involves a few 30-45 minute stops vs. the proverbial "5 minute fill-up". In actuality, stopping for gas always seemed to put me at least 15 minutes behind schedule and that's if everything went perfectly.

I realize the average consumer doesn't think that way, but it's something that could be emphasized in EV advertising. One of the joys of having an EV is waking to a "full tank" and never having to pull out of the driveway only to glance at the dash and realize you MUST make a fuel stop and don't have the time.

Perfect example, thank you.
This type of experience will be difficult to get across in advertising. I believe this will be better relayed to people through experiences of friends, family, neighbors, etc..
This is why the release of the Bolt, Model 3 and 2nd gen Leaf will accelerate the adoption rate even more than it has been.
And yes, the existence of the each of these will help the others.
 
lpickup said:
EVDRIVER said:
Based on this is will remain this way a long time IMO. Even if DC grows out who will do it?

Definitely. When I see the first 10-20 8+ stall 150kW CCS chargers placed at strategic sites (not just city centers or at dealerships with no nearby amenities), I think we are looking at 3-5 years best case before the network reaches a minimally acceptable level. Bears are fond of saying that it's just a "simple" matter of replicating the SC network but it simply takes time to select sites, acquire rights to build, get permits and actually construct and provision the sites. Even if someone were to throw a whole boatload of money at it, you can do so much in parallel, and all these steps take time.

Who will do it? I do think that ultimately car makers will realize that without a workable charging network they will simply not be able to eat into Tesla's market share. So they will do it. I'm not necessarily a fan of automakers controlling charging networks (even Tesla, but at least in their case I can understand why), so I am hoping the way they do it is to subsidize existing independent networks like evGO, Greenlots, etc. But how exactly it will play out is anyone's guess.
Volkswagen will, because they're being forced to. See the Cycle 1 Electrify America plans for the California and the U.S. here: https://www.electrifyamerica.com/our-plan

The question is, what happens after the $2b is all used up? Will public charging be profitable by then, so that it isn't dependent on government subsidies and companies will want to get into it for solid business reasons? Until that happens network growth will remain slow.
 
GRA said:
Volkswagen will, because they're being forced to. See the Cycle 1 Electrify America plans for the California and the U.S. here: https://www.electrifyamerica.com/our-plan

The question is, what happens after the $2b is all used up? Will public charging be profitable by then, so that it isn't dependent on government subsidies and companies will want to get into it for solid business reasons? Until that happens network growth will remain slow.

VW will put a very small dent into the buildout. And once they have met their obligations, my sense is that they won't spend another dime and the best we will end up with is a piecemeal network that kind of serves CA and the northeast I-95 corridor, and a few other travel islands. AND, they seem to be taking their sweet time at it. If you watch Tesla Time News on Now You Now (YouTube), you will see that they announce 10 or so new Supercharger site openings each week. VW will have like 350 total in the next 4 years. :roll:
 
Zythryn said:
Nubo said:
What the typical consumer doesn't realize (nor did I before getting an EV) is the magnitude of the convenience of home charging. If 95 percent of your miles can be accomplished by home charging you're still far ahead in convenience even if the occasional road trip involves a few 30-45 minute stops vs. the proverbial "5 minute fill-up". In actuality, stopping for gas always seemed to put me at least 15 minutes behind schedule and that's if everything went perfectly.

I realize the average consumer doesn't think that way, but it's something that could be emphasized in EV advertising. One of the joys of having an EV is waking to a "full tank" and never having to pull out of the driveway only to glance at the dash and realize you MUST make a fuel stop and don't have the time.

Perfect example, thank you.
This type of experience will be difficult to get across in advertising. I believe this will be better relayed to people through experiences of friends, family, neighbors, etc....

Actually I think the "Oops I need gas" angle could be very effective advertising. Nothing motivates people as effectively as pain avoidance. Being late for work or a meeting can be a big load of pain.

Driver A looks at the gas gauge and gets a knot in their stomach; has to stop for gas and is embarrassingly late to the job or gets stares as they sheepishly walk in late to a key meeting.

Driver B hops in their 100% full EV and cruises comfortably to work - with smiles, on time.

For extra spice, Driver A's gas station exhibits some of the more unappealing conditions we're all familiar with: smells, noise, grime, maneuvering, no soap or paper towels... perhaps waiting in line behind other harried commuters.... A clear paradigm shift can be quickly illustrated I think.

Now one migh argue that a responsible person doesn't get caught out like that. All I know is that I have been, more times that I'd care to admit. And I know I'm not alone.
 
Nubo said:
Actually I think the "Oops I need gas" angle could be very effective advertising. Nothing motivates people as effectively as pain avoidance. Being late for work or a meeting can be a big load of pain.

Driver A looks at the gas gauge and gets a knot in their stomach; has to stop for gas and is embarrassingly late to the job or gets stares as they sheepishly walk in late to a key meeting.

Driver B hops in their 100% full EV and cruises comfortably to work - with smiles, on time.

For extra spice, Driver A's gas station exhibits some of the more unappealing conditions we're all familiar with: smells, noise, grime, maneuvering, no soap or paper towels... perhaps waiting in line behind other harried commuters.... A clear paradigm shift can be quickly illustrated I think.

Now one migh argue that a responsible person doesn't get caught out like that. All I know is that I have been, more times that I'd care to admit. And I know I'm not alone.

Oh most definately. Or getting a drop of gasoline on you and smelling like gasoline at the business meeting.
While this hasn't happened to me, credit card skimmers have become quite popular at gas pumps. Which is yet another issue we can avoid.
 
evnow said:
lorenfb said:
Some still fail to see the "forest vs the trees"! Even based on the minor availability of charging stations even with the SCs, the typical ICEV
consumer still perceives the abundance of gas stations and a "six minute recharge" as the preference. This not only limits Tesla growth
but also the overall BEV market. A perfect example is the sales of the Bolt, it's overall a very good BEV with a range that should fit most
consumer needs, but yet it hasn't sold well. The M3 availability in the low end of the BEV market won't change this in the near term.

This confuses a lot of issues.

First, you don't need to convince 100% of the customers to grow the market. You just need 5 to 10%. Rest will follow.

Second, most families that can afford a Tesla have multiple cars. If they perceive EV charging on long distance as inconvenient, they'll use the ICE.

You can't compare a Chevy Bolt with a Model 3. Bolt has zero hype (just talked to a Chrysler salesman who hadn't even heard about Bolt). It started with very high prices (on leases) and is competing with Model 3. Most people I know who booked a Model 3 won't be caught dead driving a Chevy.


First, you don't need to convince 100% of the customers to grow the market. You just need 5 to 10%. Rest will follow.

There's was no implication of that, i.e. a need to convince 100%.

Second, most families that can afford a Tesla have multiple cars. If they perceive EV charging on long distance as inconvenient, they'll use the ICE.

Tesla is an anomaly in that the MS/MX are NOT purchased solely for transportation (as you imply), as will be the case for the M3.
So to use those vehicles as representative of a relatively growth BEV transportation vehicle market, is somewhat short sighted.

You can't compare a Chevy Bolt with a Model 3.

Obviously not, as the Bolt has not been designed as a lower-end luxury vehicle. With regard to the M3, many reservation holders
perceive that they are buying a slightly smaller MS with its basic features for $35K, i.e. an awaking for many will occur when
their $35K M3 finally arrives in 2019/2020 outdated.
 
lorenfb said:
Tesla is an anomaly in that the MS/MX are NOT purchased solely for transportation (as you imply), as will be the case for the M3.
So to use those vehicles as representative of a relatively growth BEV transportation vehicle market, is somewhat short sighted.

So a Bolt is solely being used for transportation and a Model 3 is being used as a garden statue in some case? Please define.

You can't compare a Chevy Bolt with a Model 3.

Obviously not, as the Bolt has not been designed as a lower-end luxury vehicle. With regard to the M3, many reservation holders
perceive that they are buying a slightly smaller MS with its basic features for $35K, i.e. an awaking for many will occur when
their $35K M3 finally arrives in 2019/2020 outdated.

It's a different car and has advantages in some areas and compromises in others, in a way it is a smaller S. How is it going to be outdated in 2019/20? What logic are you trying to apply, that a new S makes the model 3 outdated? I guess that applies to the the S as well. People that have taken delivery on a M3 feel like they have a smaller S so I suppose they are satisfied. How much time have you spent inside each of these models and behind the wheel driving them?

As a side note the LEAF was outdated the day the very first one was delivered to CA. It had a 5 plus year dated NAV system and telematics and some of the most dated features of cars that are much older. Not to mention nothing could be updated of corrected on previous models. Each new version was a tweak on the same car until now which one can say is dated and behind the curve.
 
EVDRIVER said:
lorenfb said:
With regard to the M3, many reservation holders
perceive that they are buying a slightly smaller MS with its basic features for $35K, i.e. an awaking for many will occur when
their $35K M3 finally arrives in 2019/2020 outdated.

It's a different car and has advantages in some areas and compromises in others, in a way it is a smaller S. How is it going to be outdated in 2019/20?

Right, Tesla didn't "position" the M3 product properly, i.e. it's perceived by reservation holders as a less expensive MS at $35K which most
won't see a delivery until 2019/2020. Then at that time frame, other automotive OEMs will have marketed more competitive products,
which obviates having any type of reservation for any product longer that a few months.

EVDRIVER said:
People that have taken delivery on a M3 feel like they have a smaller S so I suppose they are satisfied. .

Yes, which in the short run will affect MS sales.

EVDRIVER said:
As a side note the LEAF was outdated the day the very first one was delivered to CA.

My Leaf still serves my transportation needs well based on what they were four years ago and now. Features such as OTA updates/features
and AP provide little to no value presently and I didn't have to pay for them "packaged-in" at lease/purchase time.
 
@lorenfb,
As an expert in all things Tesla and its customers, you leave a lot to be desired.

Not bad as a troll, but Ed has you beat.
 
lorenfb said:
EVDRIVER said:
lorenfb said:
With regard to the M3, many reservation holders
perceive that they are buying a slightly smaller MS with its basic features for $35K, i.e. an awaking for many will occur when
their $35K M3 finally arrives in 2019/2020 outdated.

It's a different car and has advantages in some areas and compromises in others, in a way it is a smaller S. How is it going to be outdated in 2019/20?

Right, Tesla didn't "position" the M3 product properly, i.e. it's perceived by reservation holders as a less expensive MS at $35K which most
won't see a delivery until 2019/2020. Then at that time frame, other automotive OEMs will have marketed more competitive products,
which obviates having any type of reservation for any product longer that a few months.

EVDRIVER said:
People that have taken delivery on a M3 feel like they have a smaller S so I suppose they are satisfied. .

Yes, which in the short run will affect MS sales.

EVDRIVER said:
As a side note the LEAF was outdated the day the very first one was delivered to CA.

My Leaf still serves my transportation needs well based on what they were four years ago and now. Features such as OTA updates/features
and AP provide little to no value presently and I didn't have to pay for them "packaged-in" at lease/purchase time.


Please show me how Tesla positions the model 3 in any way. Yes we know your LEAF meets your transportation needs but that was never the question and it was still outdated BEFORE it was sold in many aspects, that's an absolute fact. That does not mean it was not a good EV when released but it had major rush to market technology hyped to be ground breaking. The Clarion "Telematics" system was a bad stop gap to say politely. Automatic updates built into pricing? So now you are on the Tesla finance team and you know how they build pricing models? Since you have their CBA in front of you then you know it was spot on because it seems everyone wants one over every other EV on the market today. So have you even sat in a Tesla or driven one? I expect you to ignore this question unless you just ran out this weekend to do so.

Tesla is a success, If they file BK tomorrow they are a success. People that buy them for many reasons unlike other EVs and cars and they love them. Tesla as a company has likely done more for this marketplace and the future of this country than any other company in this space IMO. If all model 3s had issues I'm confident Elon would resolve them, something other companies just don't care about. I think much of your disdain for them is a combination of ignorance to the company and product envy. Please go drive one.
 
Leaf 2, a major M3 competitor in 2018?

Many Tesla Model 3 buyers are likely to be performance luxury car buyers. As much as anything else, they are buying the car for the prestige and image. For these buyers, Nissan Leaf is not an alternative. However, this is just one segment of market. For many potential customers, other product attributes, especially price, may be an important issue.

However, once Tesla largely runs through its Model 3 reservation queue in 2018, we expect Leaf to make things difficult for Model 3. In 2019, when Model 3 starts becoming available outside of the reservation queue, it will be competing with 2019 Model Nissan Leaf which will have 60 kWh batteries as well as the next version of the ProPilot Assist technology. In such an environment, it will become increasingly difficult for Tesla to move volumes at premium pricing. In 2019, we will not be surprised if more Leafs get sold worldwide than Model 3s.

Nissan Leaf, for the first time in the market, has a respectable semi-autonomous feature set at budget prices. We believe that this will be a major draw for those customers who may seek autonomy but do not have the budget to buy a Model 3. If our assessment is accurate and Tesla does not sell many entry level Model 3’s due to low margins, Model 3 reservation holders could move to Leaf because of various factors including sticker shock and better availability.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...b851e3b2f1d24f6c2dc7e243705c6f2&uprof=44&dr=1
 
EVDRIVER said:
Please show me how Tesla positions the model 3 in any way.

Given the M3's cost of production with overhead, i.e. greater than $35K, and with its essentially same MS features, it's positioned as a lower
cost MS and not an entry level BEV.

EVDRIVER said:
Yes we know your LEAF meets your transportation needs but that was never the question and it was still outdated BEFORE it was sold in many aspects, that's an absolute fact.

That's a naive argument. As long as a product fits a consumer's needs and is priced properly, it's a viable product for that market segment.
As an example, the original flip-phone still sells well against smartphones.


EVDRIVER said:
Automatic updates built into pricing? So now you are on the Tesla finance team and you know how they build pricing models?

Luckily Elon doesn't have you as his Marketing VP, given your lack of understanding of what features and support need to be factored
into a product's final price.

EVDRIVER said:
Tesla as a company has likely done more for this marketplace and the future of this country than any other company in this space IMO.

A bit much, isn't it?
 
Zythryn said:
edatoakrun said:
SageBrush said:
Small correction: Supercharger access is 20 cents a kWh in California, but it varies by state. I'll pay about 13 cents a kWh in Colorado
Major correction:

Whatever are the teaser rates it has announced, TSLA's only commitment to model 3 buyers is that it will impose whatever fees it wants to for charging at its DC sites.

You are just too much sometimes.
These are the rates that are charged. Model 3 owners have already been charged, and paid for SuperChargers.
He is truly tireless. Musk could announce a cure for cancer and eda would find something to complain about.

Very interesting. Just read a Seeking Alpha report on how the LEAF 2 is going to steal market share away from Model 3 because apparently there is a tremendous demand for medium range urban commuters and second vehicles that don't need any of that fancy Supercharging rubbish.
Seeking alpha is 99% negative about Tesla. It is their thing. I wouldn't take them seriously. Tesla has a lot of issues but they will always paint them as worse than they are. I don't think the site is really worth much.

--------------

As a guy who dumped my leaf because its range was total garbage in the cold, I still think people make too big a deal about it. Too many consumers think they need a car that can go very far for long range trips. We have a van for that. My city car has over 40k miles on it now and I can count on one hand the number of times it has been more than about 20 miles from my house.

Although if we're being honest, filling for gas is very fast. I filled my tank up today in approximately 3 minutes. That's total time from when I got off to the road to when I was back on it. 4 minutes absolute tops, it was all within one song. I am probably 99th percentile (seriously, I pride myself in this) for efficiency when doing regular tasks like gas in a car, but it's a few minutes and then another week of driving. It's still pretty convenient.
 
lorenfb said:
Right, Tesla didn't "position" the M3 product properly, i.e. it's perceived by reservation holders as a less expensive MS at $35K which most
won't see a delivery until 2019/2020. Then at that time frame, other automotive OEMs will have marketed more competitive products,
which obviates having any type of reservation for any product longer that a few months.
Like what, precisely? What manufacturer is coming out with a decently ranged 5 second 0-60 EV next year? Will it have a strong and fast-maturing charging infrastructure at that time as well? Nissan sure isn't bothering, they've completely given up trying to have an EV that people actually lust after. Chevy is the only brand that has a chance near-term, but they've not announced a competitor for the Model 3 that is on the same level.
 
Just went to the Tesla store in Walnut Creek, there is a line out the door and around to see the 3. You can only have 2 min in the car now becase if the huge demand to see it. Also may people there looking at the s and x.
 
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