TSLA corporate outlook

Man: Here's one-
Cart-master: Ninepence.
Old Man: (feebly) I'm not dead!
Cart-master: (suprised) What?
Man: Nothing! Here's your ninepence....
Old Man: I'm not dead!
Cart-master: 'Ere! 'E says 'e's not dead!
Man: Yes he is.
Old Man: I'm not!
Cart-master: 'E isn't?
Man: Well... he will be soon-- he's very ill...
Old Man: I'm getting better!
Man: No you're not, you'll be stone dead in a moment.
Cart-master: I can't take 'im like that! It's against regulations!
Old Man: I don't want to go on the cart....
Man: Oh, don't be such a baby.

Data from the Model 3 invites spreadsheet

Click to expand...

https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/data-from-the-model-3-invites-spreadsheet.5678/

Data posted above seems to indicate model 3 production and deliveries this year are so far are at a fraction of the 1,000 per week rate TSLA claimed for late December 2017.

Nikkei AR delivers TSLA quite a beating, downright snide in tone in some parts of the article not quoted below:

Tesla production delays raise doubts on its finances

Another production setback for Tesla involving its new electric sedan is drawing unwelcome attention to the company's shaky finances...

With market concerns growing, a further delay in the delivery of the mass-market Model 3 could threaten the loss-making Silicon Valley automaker's ability to secure needed funds from capital markets and lenders.

On Jan. 3, Tesla said it would reach its target pace of cranking out 5,000 Model 3 units weekly in by the end of the April-June quarter, later than the previous goal of the end of 2017. The announcement marked a second such delay.

The delay prompted sudden scrutiny of the company's financial state, which a finance executive at a Japanese peer described as "unusual for an automaker."...

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https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Tesla-production-delays-raise-doubts-on-its-finances

edatoakrun said:

Data from the Model 3 invites spreadsheet

Click to expand...

https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/data-from-the-model-3-invites-spreadsheet.5678/

Data posted above seems to indicate model 3 production and deliveries this year are so far are at a fraction of the 1,000 per week rate TSLA claimed for late December 2017.

Click to expand...

Or, they indicate that not many people update the spreadsheet posted at m3oc. My update went to the one hosted at tmc (which is different).

jlv said:

edatoakrun said:

Data from the Model 3 invites spreadsheet

Click to expand...

https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/data-from-the-model-3-invites-spreadsheet.5678/

Data posted above seems to indicate model 3 production and deliveries this year are so far are at a fraction of the 1,000 per week rate TSLA claimed for late December 2017.

Click to expand...

Or, they indicate that not many people update the spreadsheet posted at m3oc. My update went to the one hosted at tmc (which is different).

Click to expand...

If you're referring to the spreadsheet discussed in the thread below, they are the same.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/12-28-17-new-invite-configuring-delivery-spreadsheet.104996/

The link I posted presents data from that spreadsheet giving useful information about rates of production and deliveries.

And also some very optimistic (IMO) future projections...

edatoakrun, does it bother you that Tesla hasn't gone bankrupt yet?

Any guesses on what Apple is going to do with that quarter of a trillion dollars they're repatriating? I can't imagine being short with that kind of cash sloshing around silicon valley... It's going to go from crazy to insane.

LTLFTcomposite said:

Any guesses on what Apple is going to do with that quarter of a trillion dollars they're repatriating? I can't imagine being short with that kind of cash sloshing around silicon valley... It's going to go from crazy to insane.

Click to expand...

I'd imagine more acquisitions, data centers and that second campus, for starters? I kind of doubt the spending would be mostly in Silicon Valley.

LTLFTcomposite said:

Any guesses on what Apple is going to do with that quarter of a trillion dollars they're repatriating? I can't imagine being short with that kind of cash sloshing around silicon valley... It's going to go from crazy to insane.

Click to expand...

I'd guess mostly to repurchase stock and/or a dividend increase.

Who is going to buy all the T-bills Apple is going to be selling to raise this cash?

Can we keep this really simple with the following comment:

Not being able to meet demand is a VERY GOOD PROBLEM.

Tesla is on track to EASILY sell over 350,000 cars per year within the next 6-12 months. This is not debatable. We can debate whether it's closer to 6 or 12, but you cannot debate IF it will happen. Well, you CAN, but it would be stupid.

I understand some people love to hate, but it's reaching ridiculous proportions. Tesla's outlook is excellent. They will not be purchased. Don't get hung up on Market Cap, or stock price, or PE ratio, or any comparison of fundamentals to other car manufacturers, or current cash burn. Bottom line is you have a company that DOMINATES a nascent market when it comes to demand. GM can have their 20-30K Bolts per year. Tesla will achieve 10X that while still Ramping Up production.

cwerdna said:

LTLFTcomposite said:

Any guesses on what Apple is going to do with that quarter of a trillion dollars they're repatriating? I can't imagine being short with that kind of cash sloshing around silicon valley... It's going to go from crazy to insane.

Click to expand...

I'd imagine more acquisitions, data centers and that second campus, for starters? I kind of doubt the spending would be mostly in Silicon Valley.

Click to expand...

My point exactly. I question whether there are actually enough opportunities to invest such a large amount without branching out into entirely new lines of business. I know the idea of Apple buying Tesla has been kicked around a lot and dismissed by many, but the Trump tax cuts have changed the game - there is now a huge amount of capital looking for a home, and the world only needs so many iTunes servers. We know they were pursuing an Apple-car project, the Titan thing, but near as I can tell that fell apart because starting a car company really isn't as easy as some would have you believe. Recruiting the right resources, design, engineering, testing, marketing, manufacturing - you can't put nine women on that and have a baby in a month, even with all the money in the world it's probably a decade to get that to scale.

edatoakrun said:

Data from the Model 3 invites spreadsheet

Click to expand...

https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/data-from-the-model-3-invites-spreadsheet.5678/

Data posted above seems to indicate model 3 production and deliveries this year are so far are at a fraction of the 1,000 per week rate TSLA claimed for late December 2017.

Click to expand...

I don't believe Tesla ever stated they reached 1000 deliveries per week, did they?

webb14leafs said:

Tesla is on track to EASILY sell over 350,000 cars per year within the next 6-12 months. This is not debatable. We can debate whether it's closer to 6 or 12, but you cannot debate IF it will happen. Well, you CAN, but it would be stupid.

Click to expand...

So what! Have you overlooked what the U.S. auto sales TAM (total available market) was for 2017 (17M), and that Tesla
is presently only about 3% of the largest (GM - 3M)? When Tesla becomes profitable and begins to approach GM's volume
or the other two (Ford - 2.6M, Toyota - 2.4M), it will be a noticeable factor in the U.S. automotive sector and be considered viable.
Today, comparing Tesla to GM is like comparing Snapchat to Facebook, i.e. it's just basically a potential acquisition for it's tech
talent needed for future growth with little to no technology value other than the SC network. It's kinda like comparing Blackberry
with Apple/Samsung, i.e Blackberry had some good security features but little else. So, some may not be stupid, but naive, yes.

lorenfb said:

webb14leafs said:

Tesla is on track to EASILY sell over 350,000 cars per year within the next 6-12 months. This is not debatable. We can debate whether it's closer to 6 or 12, but you cannot debate IF it will happen. Well, you CAN, but it would be stupid.

Click to expand...

So what! Have you overlooked what the U.S. auto sales TAM (total available market) was for 2017 (17M), and that Tesla
is presently only about 3% of the largest (GM - 3M)? When Tesla becomes profitable and begins to approach GM's volume
or the other two (Ford - 2.6M, Toyota - 2.4M), it will be a noticeable factor in the U.S. automotive sector and be considered viable.
...

Click to expand...

And on this note, webb14leafs should note that the largest automakers in the world by volume each produce and sell about 10 million vehicles worldwide per year, each w/billions in profits per year. Look up names like VW Group, GM, Toyota and Nissan-Renault Alliance (including Mitsubishi Motors).

The 350K units/year that Tesla has come nowhere near is what each of 4 names I mentioned produces in under 2 weeks.

Zythryn said:

edatoakrun said:

Data from the Model 3 invites spreadsheet

Click to expand...

https://model3ownersclub.com/threads/data-from-the-model-3-invites-spreadsheet.5678/

Data posted above seems to indicate model 3 production and deliveries this year are so far are at a fraction of the 1,000 per week rate TSLA claimed for late December 2017.

Click to expand...

I don't believe Tesla ever stated they reached 1000 deliveries per week, did they?

Click to expand...

I don't know about deliveries. Re production here's what Tesla said:

“In the last seven working days of the quarter, we made 793 Model 3s, and in the last few days, we hit a production rate on each of our manufacturing lines that extrapolates to over 1,000 Model 3s per week,” the company said in a statement.

Click to expand...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-target-again-despite-progress-idUSKBN1ES1Z4

Absolutely! I had heard the “production rate” of 1000/week a number of times.
This was just the first time I heard delivery rate.
Big difference of course.

If the current trend continues model 3s will exceed the mass of the Earth in less than three years.

LTLFTcomposite said:

If the current trend continues model 3s will exceed the mass of the Earth in less than three years.

Click to expand...

:lol:

LTLFTcomposite said:

If the current trend continues model 3s will exceed the mass of the Earth in less than three years.

Click to expand...

Imagine what would happen if they add a third shift! :lol:

https://electrek.co/2018/01/22/tesla-tsla-2018-rally-costing-shorts-1-billion/

Ouch!

Say what you will, he's all in

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/23/teslas-pay-deal-to-keep-elon-musk-all-or-nothing.html