scottf200
Posts: 1792
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2011 9:21 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2011
Location: In my Volt VIN 01234 <actual>
Contact: Website

Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Thu Dec 07, 2017 3:27 pm

Lot of construction still going on even in northern areas considering it is Dec!

Image

Compare to previous years 2017 was better.

Via www.supercharge.info chart tab
Image
Last edited by scottf200 on Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
100K EV miles and 80% EV usage
Volt = 53+ mile BEV up to 100 MPH, then 40 MPG hybrid with a 9 gal gas tank
'17 Tesla Model X 100D 'used'| RIP '16 P90DL Sig | 2011 Volt kid2 | 2016 for wife | 2012 kid1

GRA
Posts: 9206
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:08 pm

As quoted by scottf200 from the 4th quarter statement:
we plan to accelerate expansion of the Supercharger network this year, starting with doubling our number of North American Supercharger locations in 2017.
I've added the emphasis. See http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=9111&start=1400#p486580 and the ensuing discussion. You can read the entire 4Q statement at the link Scott provided in that post; the quote is from the 2nd page, last sentence in the 2nd paragraph. As to number of connectors, have a look at the 'Charts' here: https://supercharge.info/ although this only shows the global total, but as you can see they'll probably end the year under 8k globally rather than the 10k mentioned in your source, so at best 60%.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GetOffYourGas
Posts: 1902
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2011 6:56 pm
Delivery Date: 09 Mar 2012
Location: Syracuse, NY

Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:55 pm

Thanks, that makes a lot more sense. My Google-foo is weak :)

I read all of these rosy predictions from Tesla. I just assume that they will meet the stated goal but will be behind schedule and over budget. That seems to be their MO. Then again, as an engineer myself, I understand how that happens. We tend to expect things to go well, and do a poor job of planning for the unexpected.
~Brian

EV Fleet:
2011 Torqeedo Travel 1003 electric outboard on a 22' sailboat
2012 Leaf SV (traded for Bolt)
2015 C-Max Energi (302A package)
2017 Bolt Premier

scottf200
Posts: 1792
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2011 9:21 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2011
Location: In my Volt VIN 01234 <actual>
Contact: Website

Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Thu Dec 07, 2017 8:08 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:Thanks, that makes a lot more sense. My Google-foo is weak :)
I read all of these rosy predictions from Tesla. I just assume that they will meet the stated goal but will be behind schedule and over budget. That seems to be their MO. Then again, as an engineer myself, I understand how that happens. We tend to expect things to go well, and do a poor job of planning for the unexpected.

I recall from presentations that there are over 300 electric utilities to deal with across the nation. Imagine the local bureaucratic for each village, town, or city, the permits, inspections, deliveries of equipment, coordination of unique installers in each area, etc. It is odd how all this gets overlooked and trivialized. Lot of quarterbacks on the couches ... hahaha
100K EV miles and 80% EV usage
Volt = 53+ mile BEV up to 100 MPH, then 40 MPG hybrid with a 9 gal gas tank
'17 Tesla Model X 100D 'used'| RIP '16 P90DL Sig | 2011 Volt kid2 | 2016 for wife | 2012 kid1

GRA
Posts: 9206
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:29 pm

scottf200 wrote:
GetOffYourGas wrote:Thanks, that makes a lot more sense. My Google-foo is weak :)
I read all of these rosy predictions from Tesla. I just assume that they will meet the stated goal but will be behind schedule and over budget. That seems to be their MO. Then again, as an engineer myself, I understand how that happens. We tend to expect things to go well, and do a poor job of planning for the unexpected.

I recall from presentations that there are over 300 electric utilities to deal with across the nation. Imagine the local bureaucratic for each village, town, or city, the permits, inspections, deliveries of equipment, coordination of unique installers in each area, etc. It is odd how all this gets overlooked and trivialized. Lot of quarterbacks on the couches ... hahaha

Unfortunately, the people who are trivializing this are Tesla themselves, by repeatedly announcing unrealistic timetables for SC construction (as well as everything else). No one is forcing them to make these nonsensical claims, and yet they choose to ignore their own history of falling short year after year. I don't choose to ignore their actual history of accomplishment, as opposed to their claims. The difference is you do; from last April:

scottf200 wrote:
GRA wrote:Seemed to escape me? You've got to be kidding. Here's my most recent comment on that subject, back just two pages in this topic: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=9111&p=486820&hilit=To+say+this+claim+seems+unlikely+is+almost+a+British#p486820

Yes, I do need to give you some credit in that general regard.

My point was that you are continuing to compare the past to this year and you don't appreciate how things are VERY different now and why it could easily happen now because their motivations are WAY different than the past ... that you ALWAYS use as examples of what WILL happen. Hope that helps clarify. Thanks for your continued interest.
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=9111&start=1420#p492639

So tell me, Scott, which method has proven consistently more accurate, mine by forecasting Tesla's likely SC building accomplishments for this (and previous) years based on their past performance, or yours based on "how things are VERY different now and why it could easily happen now because their motivations are WAY different than the past"? ;) It appears to me that things aren't so VERY different after all, and motivations alone aren't enough.
Last edited by GRA on Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:35 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

GRA
Posts: 9206
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:31 pm

GetOffYourGas wrote:Thanks, that makes a lot more sense. My Google-foo is weak :)

I read all of these rosy predictions from Tesla. I just assume that they will meet the stated goal but will be behind schedule and over budget. That seems to be their MO. Then again, as an engineer myself, I understand how that happens. We tend to expect things to go well, and do a poor job of planning for the unexpected.

Don't worry about it; I'd read much the same claims as you had, and until Scott provided the link to the quarterly report I had the same take as you.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

scottf200
Posts: 1792
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2011 9:21 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2011
Location: In my Volt VIN 01234 <actual>
Contact: Website

Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:54 pm

GRA wrote:So tell me, Scott, which method has proven consistently more accurate, mine by forecasting Tesla's likely SC building accomplishments for this (and previous) years based on their past performance, or yours based on "how things are VERY different now and why it could easily happen now because their motivations are WAY different than the past"? ;) It appears to me that things aren't so VERY different after all, and motivations alone aren't enough.

We have seen an increase in efforts and results in 2017 vs previous years. I thought it would be more but clearly there is a LOT of activity per the construction cones, permit dots, and opened SCs. Like 1.3 or 1.4 times the number in 2016.

Also as part of the changes not being recognized that putting in 40 stall SCs is a WAY different effort than adding 8 to an existing Meijers parking lot!

I see your angle but understand that the premise of things being WAY different was the ramp up of Model 3s being delivered and how many new Tesla supercharging cars would be out there and wanting to fill up superchargers. Obviously the ramp up of Model 3s has not taken place and isn't expected until 1st quarter of 2018.

I do thinking you trivialize and do not appreciate or give credit for the effort of putting in SCs across the diverse and unique regulatory bodies (util company's, local codes, local installers, etc).
100K EV miles and 80% EV usage
Volt = 53+ mile BEV up to 100 MPH, then 40 MPG hybrid with a 9 gal gas tank
'17 Tesla Model X 100D 'used'| RIP '16 P90DL Sig | 2011 Volt kid2 | 2016 for wife | 2012 kid1

hyperionmark
Posts: 195
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:46 am
Delivery Date: 31 Jan 2017
Location: Nebraska

Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Sat Dec 09, 2017 4:19 am

A big part of making their very ambitious timelines is to inspire/motivate their employees.

GRA
Posts: 9206
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2011 1:49 pm
Location: East side of San Francisco Bay

Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Sat Dec 09, 2017 2:48 pm

scottf200 wrote:
GRA wrote:So tell me, Scott, which method has proven consistently more accurate, mine by forecasting Tesla's likely SC building accomplishments for this (and previous) years based on their past performance, or yours based on "how things are VERY different now and why it could easily happen now because their motivations are WAY different than the past"? ;) It appears to me that things aren't so VERY different after all, and motivations alone aren't enough.

We have seen an increase in efforts and results in 2017 vs previous years. I thought it would be more but clearly there is a LOT of activity per the construction cones, permit dots, and opened SCs. Like 1.3 or 1.4 times the number in 2016.

Why yes, Scott, 1.3 or 1.4 versus the 4.0 Tesla announced.

scottf200 wrote:Also as part of the changes not being recognized that putting in 40 stall SCs is a WAY different effort than adding 8 to an existing Meijers parking lot!

You recognize that, and I recognize that, although installing more stalls and a bigger transformer is a lot less work than doing all the contracts, permitting etc. for a new site. How is it that no one at Tesla recognized that?

scottf200 wrote:I see your angle but understand that the premise of things being WAY different was the ramp up of Model 3s being delivered and how many new Tesla supercharging cars would be out there and wanting to fill up superchargers. Obviously the ramp up of Model 3s has not taken place and isn't expected until 1st quarter of 2018.

The problem with that logic is that Tesla was falling behind their SC goals from early on this year, long before the Model 3 had even entered production, as documented monthly upthread. Even if the shift were based on the delay in the Model 3, none of that excuses the fact that they've also failed to complete many of the major interstate routes they announced, even though most of those don't require large numbers of stalls and their completion is needed regardless of the Model 3's presence or absence. Just to take one example, The I-10 SC in Ft. Stockton, TX, has been sitting in permit status for over a year now, even though it's essential to connect San Antonio to El Paso (and San Antonio itself still lacks an SC).

scottf200 wrote:I do thinking you trivialize and do not appreciate or give credit for the effort of putting in SCs across the diverse and unique regulatory bodies (util company's, local codes, local installers, etc).

Every single one of these factors has applied over the 5 1/2 years that Tesla has been building SCs. As I've noted many times before (seemingly every year when I have this conversation with you, Zythryn or someone else who wishes to offer excuses for Tesla), such issues are constant and predictable. In 2012 and 2013, maybe even the first half of 2014 if I want to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt, they were still on the steep part of the learning curve, and I wasn't concerned that they were falling short; I expected it. But that doesn't excuse 2015, 2016 and 2017 when the same excuses are being trotted out, during the first two years of which they averaged SC completions of about 60-70% of their announced goals,t he same as in 2014.

Just answer this: How is it possible for a casual, non-partisan unpaid observer with no access to internal plans, budgets or organizational info who bases forecasts on nothing more than the ratio of past SC completions versus announced goals plus the total number completed each year, able to consistently beat Tesla's presumably highly-paid professionals who have access to all that internal info before they announce these public goals? Either they're incompetent or lying. If they were cluelessly incompetent, the errors would be random, some years too high, some years too low, and the % would also vary. But the errors are always in the same direction, and typically 30-40% off (considerably more this year). This requires a different type of incompetence: optimism so divorced from realistic considerations (such as the inevitable 'frictions' you enumerate above) as to constitute nothing more than wishful thinking - "everything will go right, because we want it to and we're saving the world", or similar attitude.

The alternative is that they're simply lying - they know the goals are unattainable in the real world or even worse just numbers picked out of the air, but they choose to support Elon's hype (or leave or get fired, as many Tesla execs do when they are unwilling to try or fail to meet the unrealistic goals). In the case of other companies they may decide to end their collaboration (see Mobileye). Elon has a habit of announcing internal 'best case' (that is, everything goes perfectly) goals publicly as if they were realistically attainable, and most of the time the company backs him up. Am I the only one here who's read Ashlee Vance's bio?

Re motivating employees, when you work people like dogs to meet unrealistic goals and then fire them when they don't, the motivation is likely to be strongly negative.
Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'. Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

scottf200
Posts: 1792
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2011 9:21 pm
Delivery Date: 26 Feb 2011
Location: In my Volt VIN 01234 <actual>
Contact: Website

Re: Tesla Supercharger Network

Sun Dec 10, 2017 10:39 am

GRA, I appreciated your time, thoughts, and efforts. They are interesting. Generally factual based but frequently skewed to fit your narrative. And, of course, glass is half empty ;)

GRA wrote:
scottf200 wrote:I see your angle but understand that the premise of things being WAY different was the ramp up of Model 3s being delivered and how many new Tesla supercharging cars would be out there and wanting to fill up superchargers. Obviously the ramp up of Model 3s has not taken place and isn't expected until 1st quarter of 2018.
The problem with that logic is that Tesla was falling behind their SC goals from early on this year, long before the Model 3 had even entered production, as documented monthly upthread.
Certainly the planning of impacts to SCs related to Model 3s was considered long before "early on this year". The Model 3 reservations started in March 2016 so they had a solid idea on the massive interest and count of cars impacting SCs.

Clearly they make stretch goals for SCs. It is not an engineering problem but a bureaucracy (planning,permits,etc) and money/investment problem.

1.4 times more in 2017 vs 2016 is HUGE just by itself ... then compare that to what other companies are doing.

Look at this. This is a massive effort over a few short years. Especially for a new and modest sized company compared to GM, Ford, Nissan, etc.
Image
Image
100K EV miles and 80% EV usage
Volt = 53+ mile BEV up to 100 MPH, then 40 MPG hybrid with a 9 gal gas tank
'17 Tesla Model X 100D 'used'| RIP '16 P90DL Sig | 2011 Volt kid2 | 2016 for wife | 2012 kid1

Return to “Other Electric Cars & Plug-In Hybrids”