Tesla Semi Truck

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New battery tech coming next year promises to reduce battery weight drastically.
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acsenergylett.6b00594
That article says 280 Watt*hours/kg for NMC 811 vs Model 3 at 200 Wh/kg that is a 40% improvement in weight coming next year.

http://pushevs.com/2017/11/11/lg-chem-prepares-produce-ncm-811-battery-cells/
According to graph in above article, improvement in battery density is 58% for next year from 410 Wh/l to 650 Wh/l.
 
Tesla releases really low pricing for Semi. Is there a pricing mistake?
$180K for 500 mile range, with $200K savings per year in fuel.
https://www.tesla.com/semi/
 
DanCar said:
Tesla releases really low pricing for Semi. Is there a pricing mistake?
$180K for 500 mile range, with $200K savings per year in fuel.
https://www.tesla.com/semi/
Click to expand...

That does seem low. Great news if they can hit these targets and be profitable.
 
I looked for the part in the reservation agreement where it spells out the penalties Tesla will pay for late deliveries but couldn't find it
 
DanCar said:
Tesla releases really low pricing for Semi. Is there a pricing mistake?
$180K for 500 mile range, with $200K savings per year in fuel.
https://www.tesla.com/semi/
Click to expand...
Is that the trailer or the cab ?
I'm unclear where the batteries are located

-----
x-posted from the Tesla forum:

Yesterday Tesla published anticipated Semi prices:
$150k for the 300 mile range
$180k for the 500 mile range

Previously Tesla reported ~ 2 kWh per mile consumption,
so the extra 200 miles amounts to ~ 400 kWh

$30,000 for 400 kWh capacity is $75 a kWh pack price, RETAIL
 
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4127493-tesla-truck-implications
... the truck can handle 8 such connections. 8 x 216 = 1,728kW, or slightly above the needed 1,536kW to provide the 400 mile range in 30 minutes, with no breakthroughs. It’s simply a multiplication of what already exists. 12 charging modules (using the latest 72 amp module) x 8 Superchargers.
Click to expand...
 
DanCar said:
New battery tech coming next year promises to reduce battery weight drastically. <snip>
Click to expand...
Occasionally, it even arrives! ;) (See "Future Battery Tech" thread for numerous examples of battery vaporware). At least LG Chem is more likely to produce a real product, although the Ps they quote just puts them in Panasonic/Tesla's NCA league (those #s are cell not pack Ps). It'll be great when they arrive, and now I think we've definitely arrived at the point where, at least for passenger vehicles, energy density (Wh/l) is more important than Ps (Wh/kg). Small BEVs need to have the same range as large ones, and that requires better energy density. Of course, we want both to improve.
 
GRA said:
(See "Future Battery Tech" thread for numerous examples of battery vaporware)...
Click to expand...
There are no example's of vaporware there from LG and Nissan already announcing they are going to use the tech in 200 mile range car.
 
DanCar said:
GRA said:
(See "Future Battery Tech" thread for numerous examples of battery vaporware)...
Click to expand...
There are no example's of vaporware there from LG and Nissan already announcing they are going to use the tech in 200 mile range car.
Click to expand...
As I said, LG Chem is a real battery company, and I expect them to produce a battery that will be roughly comparable to Panasonic's NCA. For more hype, via IEVS:
Fisker Patents Solid-State Battery Tech, Commercialization By 2023
Click to expand...
https://insideevs.com/fisker-patents-solid-state-battery-tech-commercialization-2023/

. . . The energy density gains by the technology, allowing for 500 miles of range, are already noteworthy. Add one-minute charging to the equation and we’re talking game over for internal combustion. For real, this time. No worries about street-side charging in urban centers if the current energy distribution infrastructure (gas stations, essentially) can be adopted for electric vehicles.

According to the AutoExpress, this battery is said to offer two-and-a-half times the energy density of today’s cells at one-third the price. .
. .
Click to expand...
 
DanCar said:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4127493-tesla-truck-implications
... the truck can handle 8 such connections. 8 x 216 = 1,728kW, or slightly above the needed 1,536kW to provide the 400 mile range in 30 minutes, with no breakthroughs. It’s simply a multiplication of what already exists. 12 charging modules (using the latest 72 amp module) x 8 Superchargers.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
I was thinking they would use four, but eight makes more sense, at least given the current state of the technology.

But let's take a look at the impact of charging trucks at 1.5 MW:

Assume 100% charger efficiency and that a given truck stop is provisioned with three-phase 480 VAC service. That service can provide about 20 MW of power. Let's assume the truck stop operations only use about 500 kW, leaving about 19.5 MW to charge the trucks. That means that the truck stop can handle a MAXIMUM of 13 trucks charging at a given time. With some intelligence in the chargers more trucks can share the available power with all of them charging more slowly.

I doubt that most truck stops have this much electricity available to them, but adding this capability should be possible at many locations. Then the next level of question becomes how much additional power the high-voltage lines that run along the interstates can handle. I'm thinking about places like the east coast of Florida where the power lines run right along the interstate. How many 20-MW loads can you drop onto the system before you need major upgrades to the lines.

Finally, how much PV power can a typical truckstop install in order to minimize their electricity costs? I'll guess most can install no more than about 10 MW, so the power will need to come from elsewhere, even during the daytime on sunny days. In the future when the goal is to run these trucks 24/7, I wonder if there will be strategies in place to limit most or all charging to daylight hours.

Let's be clear: These are challenges which will not be easily resolved. It will be relatively easy to add the first BEV trucks, but it will become more and more of a challenge in order to grow this idea to a significant percent of the overall fleet. I'm confident that it will be done eventually, but I also think it will take several decades to accomplish.
 
Batteries can supplement the power issue. Contrary to what seeking alpha said, 4 maybe more likely. As E-trucks get more popular truck stops can be wired with higher powered lines.
 
RegGuheert said:
DanCar said:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4127493-tesla-truck-implications
... the truck can handle 8 such connections. 8 x 216 = 1,728kW, or slightly above the needed 1,536kW to provide the 400 mile range in 30 minutes, with no breakthroughs. It’s simply a multiplication of what already exists. 12 charging modules (using the latest 72 amp module) x 8 Superchargers.
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
I was thinking they would use four, but eight makes more sense, at least given the current state of the technology.

But let's take a look at the impact of charging trucks at 1.5 MW:

Assume 100% charger efficiency and that a given truck stop is provisioned with three-phase 480 VAC service. That service can provide about 20 MW of power. Let's assume the truck stop operations only use about 500 kW, leaving about 19.5 MW to charge the trucks. That means that the truck stop can handle a MAXIMUM of 13 trucks charging at a given time. With some intelligence in the chargers more trucks can share the available power with all of them charging more slowly.

I doubt that most truck stops have this much electricity available to them, but adding this capability should be possible at many locations. Then the next level of question becomes how much additional power the high-voltage lines that run along the interstates can handle. I'm thinking about places like the east coast of Florida where the power lines run right along the interstate. How many 20-MW loads can you drop onto the system before you need major upgrades to the lines.

Finally, how much PV power can a typical truckstop install in order to minimize their electricity costs? I'll guess most can install no more than about 10 MW, so the power will need to come from elsewhere, even during the daytime on sunny days. In the future when the goal is to run these trucks 24/7, I wonder if there will be strategies in place to limit most or all charging to daylight hours.

Let's be clear: These are challenges which will not be easily resolved. It will be relatively easy to add the first BEV trucks, but it will become more and more of a challenge in order to grow this idea to a significant percent of the overall fleet. I'm confident that it will be done eventually, but I also think it will take several decades to accomplish.
Click to expand...

Come on, solar panels on the roof and sides with fan generators under the grill will solve these issues. Faster you go the more energy to the pack.
 
Via IEVS:
UK Truckers Knock Tesla Semi, Performance Isn’t Important
Click to expand...
https://insideevs.com/uk-truckers-knock-tesla-semi-says-performance-isnt-important/

. . . the RHA isn’t convinced of Tesla’s “claimed” figures nor does the association even believe that the semi’s performance figures are necessarily applicable to the segment. The association’s policy advisor, Rod McKenzie, told Autocar:

  • “Hauliers don’t care about these claimed figures. They’re not relevant to us. We’re not looking for performance, not least because lorries’ speed is limited to 56mph. . . .”

However, in the end, McKenzie does believe that electric semis are the way of the future. He just doesn’t see it as something that can happen so soon. McKenzie shared:

  • “My gut feeling is that they are 20 years away.”
As an industry expert, he points to cost, range, and cargo capacity as key factors, which will determine the eventual adoption of electric trucking. McKenzie elaborated:

  • “I’m worried about the price point. The Tesla Semi is likely to cost more than £200,000 (~$266,000), which is beyond the budget of hauliers in the UK. A lorry here costs £85,000 ($113,000). And with the industry making margins of 2-3%, we can’t afford that extra cost.

    The Tesla Semi has a reported range of 500 miles. That’s quite a lot less than a diesel lorry. It means charging. First of all, where are the charging points? There aren’t many around. And lorries can be filled up with diesel very quickly. Musk said there would be quick-charging in 30 minutes but I think we need to see charging times in real terms. Any loss of time greatly reduces our operational efficiency.”
Click to expand...
 
GRA said:
Via IEVS:
UK Truckers Knock Tesla Semi, Performance Isn’t Important
Click to expand...
https://insideevs.com/uk-truckers-knock-tesla-semi-says-performance-isnt-important/

. . . the RHA isn’t convinced of Tesla’s “claimed” figures nor does the association even believe that the semi’s performance figures are necessarily applicable to the segment. The association’s policy advisor, Rod McKenzie, told Autocar:

  • “Hauliers don’t care about these claimed figures. They’re not relevant to us. We’re not looking for performance, not least because lorries’ speed is limited to 56mph. . . .”

However, in the end, McKenzie does believe that electric semis are the way of the future. He just doesn’t see it as something that can happen so soon. McKenzie shared:

  • “My gut feeling is that they are 20 years away.”
As an industry expert, he points to cost, range, and cargo capacity as key factors, which will determine the eventual adoption of electric trucking. McKenzie elaborated:

  • “I’m worried about the price point. The Tesla Semi is likely to cost more than £200,000 (~$266,000), which is beyond the budget of hauliers in the UK. A lorry here costs £85,000 ($113,000). And with the industry making margins of 2-3%, we can’t afford that extra cost.

    The Tesla Semi has a reported range of 500 miles. That’s quite a lot less than a diesel lorry. It means charging. First of all, where are the charging points? There aren’t many around. And lorries can be filled up with diesel very quickly. Musk said there would be quick-charging in 30 minutes but I think we need to see charging times in real terms. Any loss of time greatly reduces our operational efficiency.”
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

As some awake to reality!
 
It seems to me that he's right and wrong at the same time. They probably are about 20 years away from total electrification (including heavy-duty long-haul trucking). But he's wrong if he's saying they're 20 years away from having something very useful. The Tesla Semi has a whole host of applications for which it is well suited today. Tesla will have no problem selling as many as they can build. Once they get through "production hell" for the Model 3, and if they can do the same with the Semi...
 

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