I've not been too interested in this topic. I think Elon is blowing smoke, but it did get me thinking. What would "blow my mind"? Well, if the semi reveal is a platoon of trucks, and I'm talking at least five, better would be ten, that all follow each other, with no driver in the train (except maybe in the head truck). The trucks stop, and each one opens up, and a bunch of driverless Model 3's all drop out of the back. Then Elon announces that CA & NV have both approved Tesla's driverless semi trains for the transport of Model 3's. Now, that would be something.
Tesla Semi Truck
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GRA
Well-known member
More commercially useful will be the ability to maintain 65 mph on grades, e.g. I-80 east of Sacramento. But as the requirement for that is usually long haul and this tractor doesn't have the range for that (and is a day cab in any case), that's moot barring full autonomy. Local and regional delivery and distribution will be this tractor's metier, always depending on TCO.lorenfb said:
Nubo
Well-known member
GRA said:
Shave that kind of time off a route, and you've potentially opened the door to additonal hauls that day/week. Tesla didn't reveal pricing though, which is a pretty strong indicator that their calculations and assumptions involving TCO warrant some good scrutiny. I'm interested to find opinions from actual truckers. Seems like there's a lot to love here from an operator standpoint. It's like they got rid of all of the crappy aspects of trucking.
Tesla showed the day cab but they intend to build a sleep cab also.GRA said:
I have no doubt whatsoever that Tesla is targeting the trans-mountain range routes. I expect the first mega-chargers to be at the bases of mountain ranges on each side. Musk spent a fair amount of time emphasizing the Tesla Semi's ability to haul a full cargo up 5% grades at close to 50% faster speeds than diesel. That really only matters on routes that cross mountain ranges. Moreover, mountains let the Tesla Semi regen abilities shine. The cost per mile differential will close to double on these routes, and routine maintenance like brakes will drop to zero.
Is your mind blown ? Mine is. The thought of transitioning commercial transport away from fool's fuel has always struck me as the most difficult part of the clean energy transition and now it just might turn out to be the easiest. Crazy.
The Elon talk also opened my eyes to something else: the cost of truck/fuel related in commercial transport is pretty minor*; the elephant in the room is the driver costs. So while Elon shied away from focusing on multi-truck convoys with only one driver, that is the real promise trucking companies want to come true. Tesla will have quite an edge here from the monster torque and power the trucks can supply to stay in close formation.
By the way, some other crazy numbers for the geeks amongst us:
1000 kWh battery capacity
1.6 MW Mega-charging average throughput
*Somewhere around 2 cents per pound moved 1000 miles for diesel at rates of $2.5 a gallon. Calculated from $1.5 a mile to move 80,000 pounds
LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
My mind was blown then reconstituted itself and flowed back into my skull (sort of like that liquid metal guy in T2 after being shattered in the liquid nitrogen) at the realization it's probably four years before these things hit the road in any significant numbers.
Cool stuff, I just wish they could figure out how to produce the products they invent faster.
Cool stuff, I just wish they could figure out how to produce the products they invent faster.
DanCar
Well-known member
Poll: Should California have a ZEV mandate for Semi trucks?
https://plus.google.com/u/1/+DanielCardenas/posts/F8BCou1awPc
https://plus.google.com/u/1/+DanielCardenas/posts/F8BCou1awPc
Nubo
Well-known member
SageBrush said:
Yes, that struck me. Instead of noisy "Jake Brakes" that are outlawed in populated areas, regen will not only keep speed calmed on long descents, but make "fuel"! Now how much would you pay!? :lol:
Talk about a paradigm shift for trucking. Though I wonder if they have an answer to regen at high SOC.
earlgrey
Active member
Two of my nerd friends (one who works in the transportation industry) and I back-calculated the total cost of the semi from the TCO info Musk provided. We came up with $900k.
Maintenance costs have an exponential impact on our numbers though, so if we undershot maintenance, the purchase price could be quite a bit lower.
All in all, I’m impressed. 500 mile range with 400 miles in 30 minutes? Mind blown.
Maintenance costs have an exponential impact on our numbers though, so if we undershot maintenance, the purchase price could be quite a bit lower.
All in all, I’m impressed. 500 mile range with 400 miles in 30 minutes? Mind blown.
LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
Seems gps could be used to limit charging if it was determined to be in a location that was at risk.Nubo said:
Don't locomotives have giant resistors with fans? That would be overkill.
LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
Most but not all, for example there are truck stops in Glenwood springs CO. A car can pretty much just ride the brakes in these situations but that could be death in a truck.SageBrush said:
That said nobody has invented a diesel engine that puts fuel back in the tank so advantage EV on this one for sure.
This table has interesting information, albeit not limited to 80k pound trucks. It does provide context for where the Tesla Semi is likely to cut costs. Information from ATRI at
http://atri-online.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ATRI-Operational-Costs-of-Trucking-2016-09-2016.pdf
http://atri-online.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ATRI-Operational-Costs-of-Trucking-2016-09-2016.pdf
GRA
Well-known member
The range just isn't there for long haul, and is completely inadequate to justify a sleeper cab, especially when you have to add charging times. I'm also very skeptical of the 500 mile range claim - I figure probably 300 miles no worries over a long enough period to come out ahead on TCO, and I'd like to know just how much more that tractor weighs and will reduce the payload - I didn't see weight mentioned, but didn't watch the reveal, just read reports.SageBrush said:
However, the range is fine for distribution, figuring the truck can make a round trip to a radius of 125-150 miles between charges. To take one case in point, Yellow Freight's breakbulk for all of southern California used to be in Barstow, as were and (probably still are) many other distribution terminals owing to cheap land. From Barstow, a tractor like the Tesla could handle distribution or delivery to anywhere in the Greater L.A. and Inland Empire areas crossing Tejon or Cajon passes, and could at least reach a delivery terminal in San Diego or Santa Barbara. There's no reason to try to force this tractor into a job it isn't suited to for now, when there's so much room for improvement in jobs it is suited for.
Personally, the whole semi/roadster reveal struck me as Elon trying to distract attention from the elephant in the room, the Model 3 delay. How about putting the attention on fixing the current problems, instead of yet more visionary stuff that's years away (and undoubtedly will be late, assuming the company survives)? I'm reminded of my own state's chief executive back in the '70s (and now back for a second round as a much more mature individual), Jerry Brown, whose visionary goals combined with a sometimes short attention span led to Mike Royko dubbing him 'Governor Moonbeam', and Gary Trudeau parodying him in Doonesbury. Of course, many of his visions. like Elon's, have come to pass because he popularized and pushed them, but less sizzle and more steak from Tesla would be welcome, at least by me. [Edit]: Seems like John Voelcker at GCR feels much the same:
https://www.greencarreports.com/new...ter-distract-from-model-3-production-problems
smkettner
Well-known member
Same as the other vehicles I believe the Tesla Semi will have range creep with 600 to 800 range within 12 to 24 months after production starts.
jpadc
Well-known member
But the very last thing that will happen in the trucking industry is cutting drivers. Why? in a word... liability :!: Its one thing for a private owner's car to get into an accident that results in a death. If a Schneider National truck is in an accident that causes a death, millions and millions of dollars are at stake. Drivers will be constantly monitoring / controlling trucks on the road LONG after most private cars are automated. I suspect that change will come about the same time Airlines can do without pilots (which I would bet would happen first). Don't count on any cost savings from removing drivers anytime soon.SageBrush said:
GRA
Well-known member
Her's one cost comparison estimate by George Bower at IEVS:
And here's Jonathan Ramsey at ABG:
He agrees with me that this is not a long haul tractor, and also has some other concerns he points out.
https://insideevs.com/making-sense-out-of-teslas-semi-truck-economics/
And here's Jonathan Ramsey at ABG:
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/11/19/tesla-semi-trucker-questions/
He agrees with me that this is not a long haul tractor, and also has some other concerns he points out.
LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
I don't think that guy understood what EM meant by third party devices. Everything on the dash is a button or switch made by some supplier, although to be fair they are on cars too including Tesla, just not made to look pretty or "integrated".
GRA
Well-known member
One thing I noticed somehwere is that Elon claimed the truck would have a 1MWh pack (for 500 miles of range). George Bower did a calc several months back at IEVS that agrees remarkably well with this, arriving at 1,193 kWh for 600 miles of range: https://insideevs.com/tesla-semi-truck-battery-is-how-big/
So, let's look at the likely weight of that. According to the Model 3 paperwork submitted to the government for certification (see in that thread), the long-range pack in the Model 3 has a specific energy of 150Wh/kg (Es at the cell level is over 200). 1,000,000/150 = 6,666.67kg. I found the weight for a fairly typical semi- tractor diesel given as 2,880 lb. or 1,306 kg. The Tesla probably saves weight on the transmission, but an Eaton 13-spd Road Ranger weighs 720 lb. or 327 kg., so we're only looking at 1,633kg total. The drive shaft and clutch would add some more, but probably not all that significant, and the Tesla would have to add the weight of the motors.
Anyway, in round numbers you're talking about an extra 5,000 kg, minus the weight of the fuel. Long haul tractors typically have tanks of 200 to 300 gal., and assuming using 7 lb./gal. or 3.175 kg./gal. (6.943 lb./gal. or 3.149 kg./gal if you want to be more precise), you're talking about 635 to 953 kg., reducing the difference to 4,365 to 4,047 kg., or 9,623 lb. to 8,922 lb. less payload for the Tesla. As that's all going to be carried by the tractor's axles, it makes loading the nose of trailers and scaling problematic (as the trailer pin is supported by the tractor's two rear axles, and you're limited to 34.000 lb. tandem axle weight regardless of the gross weight). I'm sure that the Tesla will save weight by the use of carbon fiber etc., but that can also be used by conventional tractors.
So, let's look at the likely weight of that. According to the Model 3 paperwork submitted to the government for certification (see in that thread), the long-range pack in the Model 3 has a specific energy of 150Wh/kg (Es at the cell level is over 200). 1,000,000/150 = 6,666.67kg. I found the weight for a fairly typical semi- tractor diesel given as 2,880 lb. or 1,306 kg. The Tesla probably saves weight on the transmission, but an Eaton 13-spd Road Ranger weighs 720 lb. or 327 kg., so we're only looking at 1,633kg total. The drive shaft and clutch would add some more, but probably not all that significant, and the Tesla would have to add the weight of the motors.
Anyway, in round numbers you're talking about an extra 5,000 kg, minus the weight of the fuel. Long haul tractors typically have tanks of 200 to 300 gal., and assuming using 7 lb./gal. or 3.175 kg./gal. (6.943 lb./gal. or 3.149 kg./gal if you want to be more precise), you're talking about 635 to 953 kg., reducing the difference to 4,365 to 4,047 kg., or 9,623 lb. to 8,922 lb. less payload for the Tesla. As that's all going to be carried by the tractor's axles, it makes loading the nose of trailers and scaling problematic (as the trailer pin is supported by the tractor's two rear axles, and you're limited to 34.000 lb. tandem axle weight regardless of the gross weight). I'm sure that the Tesla will save weight by the use of carbon fiber etc., but that can also be used by conventional tractors.
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